• Journal of Korea Trade
• /
• 제26권6호
• /
• pp.41-60
• /
• 2022

Purpose - The policy implications of free trade agreements have traditionally been a matter of debate among economists. The official signing of the Korea-China Free Trade Agreement provides economists with a quasi-natural experiment to analyze the FTA's policy effects. This article aims to more accurately understand the impact of Korea's FTA accession on the macro economy. Design/methodology - This study adopts the counterfactual method based on panel data to find common factors in the generation process of macro data to fit the counterfactual path, to accurately evaluate the effect of the macro policy. Findings - Our research results show that the signing of the Korea-China FTA has a relatively significant short-term positive effect on Korea's economic growth. On average, Korea's real GDP growth rate has increased by 2.1%. This study finds evidence in support of FTA signing not having a significant impact on Korea's GDP growth in the long run. Additionally, we evaluated the impact of the FTA on Korea's imports and exports and found that it had a significant positive impact in the short term, but the trade effect of the FTA is significantly affected by the external macro-environment. Originality/value - First, this study uses macro panel data at the national level to examine the impact of the Korea-China FTA on Korea, and more accurately describes the policy effect of the FTA. Second, our empirical results show that the Korea-China FTA policy impact is subject to occasional changes in the external environment, such as the geopolitical conflict (crisis) between Korea and China, and the US-China trade war. Finally, the analysis shows that the short-term effect of FTA is significant but the long-term is uncertain, which provides empirical evidence for the debate on whether joining FTA can promote national economic growth.

• 디지털융복합연구
• /
• 제16권9호
• /
• pp.115-123
• /
• 2018

본 연구는 계층분석적의사결정법을 활용하여 평택항 자유무역지역 입주기업을 대상으로 활성화 요인의 중요도를 분석하였고 분석결과에 따른 시사점을 제시하였다. 상위요인의 중요도를 분석한 결과 평택항 자유무역지역 입주기업들은 인프라 요인(0.330)을 가장 중요하게 인식하고 있었으며, 이외 금융 및 예산(0.223), 조직 및 운영(0.188), 제도(0.140), 인력(0.119) 순으로 중요도가 산정되었다. 보다 세부적으로는 항로의 확장을 가장 중요하게 개선되어야 할 사항으로 인식하고 있었다. 그리고 제조기업들은 물류기업에 비해 제조업체의 진입여건 개선과 부가가치 물류활동에 대한 배점강화를 다소 중요한 요인으로 판단하고 있었다. 하지만 물류기업의 경우 제조기업에 비해 인력에 대한 중요성을 높게 평가하고 있었다. 이러한 분석결과에 대한 시사점으로 평택항의 항로다각화, 자유무역지역 인근 인프라의 개선, 임대료 재검토 등 제도개선의 필요성을 제안하였으며, 향후 비입주기업을 대상으로 한 활성화 연구의 필요성을 제안하였다.

• East Asian Economic Review
• /
• 제20권3호
• /
• pp.279-309
• /
• 2016

The proposed Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) is a free trade agreement among 12 Pacific Rim countries whose joint gross domestic products (GDPs) account for 36 percent of world GDP and whose mutual trade accounts for approximately 24 percent of world trade. As for most proposed free trade agreements (FTAs), trade economists have provided ex ante computable general equilibrium (CGE) estimates to predict the trade, employment, and real per capita income effects of this agreement, such as ITC (2016). This paper-intended to complement these studies-examines the potential impacts of TPP beyond such traditional CGE estimates, taking a broader economic, governance, and historical perspective. First, we contrast these traditional CGE trade and welfare estimates that treat all firms within an industry as homogeneous with more recent CGE analyses that allow firms' productivities to be heterogeneous. We show that the latter models' trade predictions are much more consistent with ex post empirical evidence of average trade effects of FTAs. Second, empirical evidence now strongly confirms the existence of FTA "contagion." We review this evidence and show that predictive models of the evolution of FTAs indicate that the TPP should be formed. With China now having formed 12 FTAs and negotiating five new ones (including a sixteen member Asia-Pacific FTA), the United States would likely face considerable trade diversion without the TPP. Third, we examine empirical evidence on the likely further economic growth implications of FTAs by reducing firms' uncertainty over trade relations and trade policies. Fourth, we examine empirical evidence on the additional impact of FTAs on consolidating democratic institutions in countries. The TPP would likely help consolidate some of the less mature democracies. Fifth, we examine empirical evidence on the reductions of conflicts (and enhanced peace) between countries owing to the formations of FTAs. We conclude the paper noting that the potential net benefits to member countries of the proposed TPP extend well beyond the real income gains to households based upon traditional CGE models.

• East Asian Economic Review
• /
• 제22권3호
• /
• pp.275-306
• /
• 2018

Amid a general rise in protectionism and a trade war between the world's two largest economies, this paper analyzes changes in gains from trade for the world over a decade marked by rapid global economic integration preceding the global financial crisis of 2007-08. It employs state-of-the-art quantitative trade models based on the gravity equation to estimate autarky gains from trade, as well as a recently introduced ANOVA-type structural estimation of the gravity equation to obtain trade costs free of residual trade cost bias. Between 1995 and 2006, the cost of moving to autarky increased by about 45% on average. A decomposition exercise suggests most of the increase in autarky gains from trade on average was due to increases in import shares in total spending, with a limited role for reallocations of spending across sectors with varied trade elasticities. Changes in trade costs between 1995 and 2006 are found to have increased autarky gains from trade, as measured in 2006, by up to 100%.

• Journal of Korea Trade
• /
• 제26권8호
• /
• pp.58-76
• /
• 2022

Purpose - This study examined the Rules of Origin (RoO) as a factor affecting free trade agreements' (FTA) utilization and analyzed the causal relationship and the effects of these factors on the export performance of automobile parts companies. Design/methodology - We analyzed and verified the impact of FTA utilization and the export performance of automobile parts companies by dividing the characteristics of the RoO into complexity and uncertainty. Following which, various statistical analyses were conducted on the interrelationships among these variables. Findings - This research analyzed the effect of the RoO factors of complexity and uncertainty on the use of FTA and the export performance of automobile parts companies. We found that these characteristics of RoO were generally related to and affected the FTA use and export performance of these companies. Based on this, this study's investigation into the characteristics of the RoO would then help companies in better utilizing the FTA, as well as providing suggestions on how to effectively respond to the application of the FTA in the future. Originality/value - Companies that want to utilize FTAs in international trade must follow the RoO. In the Regional Trade Agreement (RTA), the country-of-origin is a key factor, with the RoO being an important requirement for the application of preferential tariffs. These regulations are a requirement for receiving FTA preferential treatment; however, they also cause difficulties to companies in using the FTA.

• 유통과학연구
• /
• 제10권12호
• /
• pp.13-17
• /
• 2012

Purpose - The Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) forum has evolved and is actively facilitating free and open trade. It is debated whether APEC has effectively reduced trade barriers in a preferential manner to encourage liberalized trade and whether increased trade between member countries has reduced trade with nonmember countries. Research designs, data, methodology -This paper empirically tests whether APEC creates or diverts trade, using an extended gravity model with tariff rates, exchange rates, and dummy variables to analyze how APEC affects intra-trade between members.The model utilizes the annual panel data between 1990 and 2007 of 16 selected APEC members and nonmembers. Results - Results reveal the changing role of APEC only between 2002 and 2007 has it created trade, fostering increased trade among trading partners and between members and nonmembers. Conclusion - APEC can be expected to demonstrate a stronger trade creating effect once its advanced and developing members complete tariff reductions by 2010 and 2020, respectively.

• 한국중재학회지:중재연구
• /
• 제17권1호
• /
• pp.183-215
• /
• 2007

The purpose of this paper is to study of WTO regulations related FTA such as Understanding on the Interpretation of Article XXIV of the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade(GATT) 1994 and General Agreement on Trade in Service(GATS). In this study, the First introduced FTA rules of WTO in the chapter 2. The WTO agreement includes the "General Agreement on Tariffs an Trade(GATT) 1994". This instrument, known as "GATT 1994", is based on upon the original General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade referred to as "GATT 1947". The Second analyzed the relations between FTA and Article XXIV of GATT 1994 in the chapter 3. The Article XXIV of GATT 1994 is an agreement between the distinctive members for liberalizing trade. The Article XXIV of GATT 1994 is consist of three parts such as customs unions, free-trade area, and interim agreements that WTO is referred to as "Regional Trade Agreement(RTA)". There is a difference between the customs unions and the free-trade area. In the customs unions rules, the members should have the same tarifficatio and the same trade provision against non-members, but in the free-trade are a rules, the member is not necessary to have the same tarifficatio and the same trade provision against non-members. But, the both rules have a liberalization of trade in a common as a revoking tariffs and the government regulations for interfering with trade. In this case, however, the both rules include an inconsistency ele ment under WTO rules such as Most-Favoured-Nation Treatment(MFN) and National Treatment on Internal Taxation and Regulation(NTITR). This study reviewed neither inconsistency nor consistency on the both rules with the RTA of WTO under Article XXIV of GATT 1994. The Third analyzed the relations between FTA and Article V of GATS under WTO in the chapter 4. The GATS is a rule of WTO for the growing importance of trade in services for the growth and development of the world conomy. The GATS is a new rule rather than GATT's rule for concerning goods trade. The Article V of GATS under WTO is a rule that makes based on upon the Article XXIV of GATT. Therefore, If it is to be examined the Article V of GATS, it should be referred to a and an interpretation of the text of the Article XXIV of GATT. However, the Article V of GATS is on the undeveloped stage compare to the Article XXIV of GATT. Because, the statistics of WTO showed that the RTAs under the Article XXIV of GATT have 150 cases completed between nations, but the RTAs under the Article IV of GATS have 10 cases completed between nations. The Forth examined the interpretation of FTA rules under WTO in the chapter 5. Concerning the consistency issue of customs unions and free-trade area under the Article XXIV of GATT, the working parties in customs unions and in free-trade area have been reviewed the consistency is sue which had been not if to GATT. However, the parties finished to get up with one accord the both that are a consistency of argument and an inconsistency of argument with the interpretation of the Article XXIV of GATT. The interpretation of the Article XXIV of GATT has been raised as the issues when EEC by Rome Treaty established in 1957. However, the consistency is sue only agreed 6 working parties out of 69 working parties finished the reviewing of the interpretation up to the end of 1994. Also the consistency issue concerned with the special privilege measure of the customs unions and tree-trade area under the Article XXIV of GATT discussed only 3 cases between working parties up to now and did not accepted as an issue for working parties' report. In conclusion in the chapter 6, this study raised the issues of WTO that are a conference of a new round under WTO and the issues of clarity between FTA rule and WTO regulation.

• 통상정보연구
• /
• 제16권5호
• /
• pp.361-385
• /
• 2014

본 연구는 우리나라 기술무역의 확산을 위하여 기존의 기술무역상대국인 선진국과 BRICs이외의 신흥6개국을 선정, 이들 국가와의 기술무역 실태를 실증분석을 통해 분석하였다. 이를 위해 신흥 6개국, 즉, 남미(멕시코), 아시아(인도네시아, 베트남, 터키), 아프리카(나이지리아, 남아공)과의 2003-2012년 총 10년간의 기술무역 data를 활용하여 우리나라의 기술수출에 영향을 미치는 다양한 변수를 발굴하고 이에 대한 실증분석을 시도하였다. 이러한 실증분석 결과, 우리나라의 총수출에는 신흥6개국의 기술수준별 저위기술의 도입이 클수록 우리나라의 수출이 증가하는 것으로 분석되었다. 또한 중소기업의 경우에는 인구가 많을수록, 무역개방도는 클수록, 거리는 가까울수록 기술수출이 증가하였으며, 대기업의 경우에는 투자유형별로는 공동투자가, 그 밖에 변수로는 무역개방도가 높을수록, 1인당 GDP가 많을수록, 한국의 해당국에 대한 직접투자가 많을수록, 또한 거리는 가까울수록 대기업의 기술수출은 증가하는 것으로 분석되고 있다. 따라서 신흥6개국에 대한 우리나라 기업들의 수출전략은 대기업과 중소기업으로 구분하여 유의미하게 도출된 요인들을 활용, 기술수출 경쟁력 강화를 위한 전략에 적극 활용하여야 함을 강조하고 있다.

• 무역학회지
• /
• 제41권2호
• /
• pp.29-60
• /
• 2016

본 연구에서는 두 나라의 대표적인 두 기업이 R&D 경쟁과 쿠르노 경쟁을 하는 상황을 전제로 외국기업의 R&D 외부효과가 국내 주요 경제변수에 어떤 영향을 미치며 나아가 국내정부의 보호수준과 어떤 관계를 갖는지에 대한 무역정책의 문제를 규명한다. 국제적 과점의 2단계 모형을 통해 우리는 자유무역과 보호무역 정책에서 존재하는 유일한 해를 구하고, 나아가 시뮬레이션 분석을 통해 R&D 투자의 외부효과에 따른 주요 경제변수들의 변화 패턴과 일국의 최적관세 패턴을 추적한다. 이론적인 주요 예측으로 기업들이 R&D 경쟁을 하고 있는 상황에서 자유무역과 보호무역 두 경우에 모두 R&D 외부효과가 클수록 R&D 투자율과 수준이 감소하고, 사회후생은 유사한 패턴을 보이지만 그 수준은 보호무역에서 상대적으로 큰 것으로 드러난다. 또 이 연구의 가장 관심사항인 R&D 투자의 외부효과와 최적관세율 간의 관계에서는 두 변수 간에 부(-)의 관계가 나타난다. 이는 정책적으로 R&D 투자의 외부효과가 커짐에 따라 최적관세율을 낮출 필요가 있음을 시사한다.

• Journal of Contemporary Eastern Asia
• /
• 제11권2호
• /
• pp.27-45
• /
• 2012

Among political scientists, Japan's free trade agreements (FTA) with member nations of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) has been considered to be a political tool that can compete against China for regional leadership in East Asia. However, this paper demonstrates that Japan's so-called FTA diplomacy towards ASEAN nations serves the broad interests of Japanese actors in both the political and economic sectors. Given the attention to Japanese domestic political issues, it is argued that diplomacy primarily facilitates a need for free trade with ASEAN and ASEAN markets for Japanese corporations to compete in the global economy and for the government to nurture Japan's stagnant economy by assisting these corporations. This work also contends that the unclear function of FTA as an economic good is due to the lack of the government capacity to effectively manage FTA diplomacy. This partly results from the conventional view with regard to Sino-Japanese rivalry.