• Journal of Korean Society of Coastal and Ocean Engineers
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• v.25 no.6
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• pp.412-421
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• 2013

Nowadays, small and medium-sized earthquakes occur frequently in the west coast of Korea. The earthquake induced damages on the harbor structure such as quay wall possibly make a severe impact on national economy. Therefore, not only a seismic design for the structures but warning system for seismic damage right after the occurrence of earthquake should be developed. In this study, seismic fragility analysis was performed to be given to earthquake damage prediction system for quay wall structures in Busan and Incheon harbor. Four types of structures such as pier-type, caisson type, counterfort type, block-type were analyzed and fragility curves of functional performance level and collapse prevention level based on displacement criteria were found. Regression analyses by using the results of the two ports were done for possible use in other port structures.

• Journal of the Korean Geotechnical Society
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• v.34 no.6
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• pp.25-36
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• 2018

Soil liquefaction is one of the types of major seismic damage. Soil liquefaction is a phenomenon that can cause enormous human and economic damages, and it must be examined before designing geotechnical structures. In this study, we proposed a practical method of developing a multi-hazard fragility surface for liquefaction of levee considering earthquake magnitude and water level. Limit state for liquefaction of levee was defined by liquefaction potential index (LPI), which is frequently used to assess the liquefaction susceptibility of soils. In order to consider the uncertainty of soil properties, Monte Carlo Simulation based probabilistic analysis was performed. Based on the analysis results, a 3D fragility surface representing the probability of failure by soil liquefaction as a function of the ground motion and water level has been established. The prepared multi-hazard fragility surface can be used to evaluate the safety of levees against liquefaction and to assess the risk in earthquake and flood prone areas.

• Journal of the Earthquake Engineering Society of Korea
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• v.8 no.1
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• pp.67-76
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• 2004

This study presents the evaluation of CSM(Capacity Spectrum Method, ATC-40) in developing fragility curves for a sample concrete bridge. The CSM is originally developed as one of the simplified procedures for building structures, while this study adopts the CSM to develop fragility curves of bridge structures. Four(4) different approaches are demonstrated and the fragility curves developed are compared those by the nonlinear time history analysis. Fragility curves in this study are represented by lognormal distribution functions with two parameters and developed as a function of PGA. The sixty(60) ground acceleration time histories for the Los Angeles area developed for the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) SAC(SEAOC-ATC-CUREe) steel project are used for the bridge analysis. The comparison of fragility curves by the CSM with those by the time history analysis indicates that the agreement is excellent for one of the methods investigated in this study. In this respect. it is recommended that the demand spectrum might be improved according to the guidelines suggested in this study. However, this observation might not always apply, depending on the details of specific bridge characteristic

• Journal of Korean Tunnelling and Underground Space Association
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• v.19 no.2
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• pp.143-159
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• 2017

A probabilistic fragility assessment procedure is developed in this paper to predict risks of damage arising from seismic loading to the two-cell RC box tunnel. Especially, the paper focuses on establishing a simplified methodology to derive fragility curves which are an indispensable ingredient of seismic fragility assessment. In consideration of soil-structure interaction (SSI) effect, the ground response acceleration method for buried structure (GRAMBS) is used in the proposed approach to estimate the dynamic response behavior of the structures. In addition, the damage states of tunnels are identified by conducting the pushover analyses and Latin Hypercube sampling (LHS) technique is employed to consider the uncertainties associated with design variables. To illustrate the concepts described, a numerical analysis is conducted and fragility curves are developed for a large set of artificially generated ground motions satisfying a design spectrum. The seismic fragility curves are represented by two-parameter lognormal distribution function and its two parameters, namely the median and log-standard deviation, are estimated using the maximum likelihood estimates (MLE) method.

• Journal of the Computational Structural Engineering Institute of Korea
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• v.27 no.6
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• pp.517-524
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• 2014

The ultimate goal of seismic design is to reduce the probable losses or damages occurred during an expected earthquake event. To achieve this goal, this study represents a procedure that can estimate annual loss probability of a structure damaged by strong ground motion. First of all, probabilistic seismic performance assessment should be performed using seismic fragility analyses that are presented by a cumulative distribution function of the probability in each exceedance structural damage state. A seismic hazard curve is then derived from an annual frequency of exccedance per each ground motion intensity. An annual loss probability function is combined with seismic fragility analysis results and seismic hazard curves. In this paper, annual loss probabilities are estimated by the structural fragility curve of steel moment-resisting frames(SMRFs) in San Francisco Bay, USA, and are compared with loss estimation results obtained from the HAZUS methodology. It is investigated from the comparison that seismic losses of the SMRFs calculated from the HAZUS method are conservatively estimated. The procedure presented in this study could be effectively used for future studies related with structural seismic performance assessment and annual loss probability estimation.

• Steel and Composite Structures
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• v.19 no.1
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• pp.237-262
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• 2015

In this study, we try to compare different intensity measures for evaluating nonlinear response of bridge structure. This paper presents seismic analytic fragility of a three-span concrete girder highway bridge. A complete detail of bridge modeling parameters and also its verification has been presented. Fragility function considers the relationship of intensities of the ground motion and probability of exceeding certain state of damage. Incremental dynamic analysis (IDA) has been subjected to the bridge from medium to strong ground motions. A suite of 20 earthquake ground motions with different range of PGAs are used in nonlinear dynamic analysis of the bridge. Complete sensitive analyses have been done on the response of bridge and also efficiency and practically of them are studied to obtain a proficient intensity measure for these types of structure by considering its sensitivity to the period of the bridge. Three dimensional finite element (FE) model of the bridge is developed and analyzed. The numerical results show that the bridge response is very sensitive to the earthquake ground motions when PGA and Sa (Ti, 5%) are used as intensity measure (IM) and also indicated that the failure probability of the bridge system is dominated by the bridge piers.

• Journal of the Earthquake Engineering Society of Korea
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• v.24 no.3
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• pp.141-148
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• 2020

For the important safety system, two or more units of identical equipment or redundant components with similar function were installed to prevent abnormal failure. If the failure probability of such equipment is independent, this redundancy could increase the system safety remarkably. However, if the failure of each component is highly correlated by installing in a structure or experiencing an earthquake event, the expected redundancy effect will decrease. Therefore, the seismic correlation of the equipment should be evaluated quantitatively for the seismic probabilistic safety assessment. The correlation effect can be explained in the procedure of constructing fragility curves. In this study, several methodologies to quantify the seismic correlation in the failure probability calculation for multiple components were reviewed and two possible ways considering the realistic situation were selected. Simple examples were tested to check the applicability of these methods. The conversion method between these two methods was suggested to render the evaluation using the advantages of each method possible.

• Advances in concrete construction
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• v.9 no.4
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• pp.337-343
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• 2020

In the present study, by employing fragility analysis, the seismic vulnerability of a concrete girder bridge, one of the most common existing structural bridge systems, has been performed. To this end, drift demand model as a fundamental ingredient of any probabilistic decision-making analyses is initially developed in terms of the two most common intensity measures, i.e., PGA and Sa (T₁). Developing a probabilistic demand model requires a reliable database that is established in this paper by performing incremental dynamic analysis (IDA) under a set of 20 ground motion records. Next, by employing Bayesian statistical inference drift demand models are developed based on pre-collapse data obtained from IDA. Then, the accuracy and reasonability of the developed models are investigated by plotting diagnosis graphs. This graphical analysis demonstrates probabilistic demand model developed in terms of PGA is more reliable. Afterward, fragility curves according to PGA based-demand model are developed.

• Structural Engineering and Mechanics
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• v.50 no.5
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• pp.653-664
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• 2014

Wind fragility analysis provides a quantitative instrument for delineating the safety performance of civil structures under hazardous wind loading conditions such as cyclones and tornados. It has attracted and would be expected to continue to attract intensive research spotlight particularly in the nowadays worldwide context of adapting to the changing climate. One of the challenges encumbering efficacious assessment of the safety performance of existing civil structures is the possible incompleteness of the structural appraisal data. Addressing the issue of the data missingness, the study presented in this paper forms a first attempt to investigate the feasibility of using the expectation-maximization (EM) algorithm and Bayesian techniques to predict the wind fragilities of existing civil structures. Numerical examples of typical linear or hysteretic shear frames are introduced with the wind loads derived from a widely used power spectral density function. Specifically, the application of the maximum a posteriori estimates of the distribution parameters for the story stiffness is examined, and a surrogate model is developed and applied to facilitate the nonlinear response computation when studying the fragilities of the hysteretic shear frame involved.

• Journal of the Earthquake Engineering Society of Korea
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• v.25 no.5
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• pp.201-211
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• 2021

The Ministry of the Interior and Safety in Korea developed seismic fragility function for various building types in 2009. Damage states for most building types were determined by structural analyses of sample models and foreign references because actual cases damaged by earthquakes rarely exist in Korea. Low-rise, piloti-type buildings showed severe damage by brittle failure in columns due to insufficient stirrup details in the 2017 Pohang earthquake. Therefore, it is necessary to improve damage state criteria for piloti-type buildings by consulting actual outcomes from the earthquake. An analytical approach was conducted by developing analysis models of sample buildings reflecting insufficient stirrup details of columns to accomplish the purpose. The result showed that current spectral displacements of damage states for piloti-type buildings might be too large to estimate actual fragility. When the brittle behavior observed in the earthquake is reflected in the analysis model, one-fourth through one-sixth of current spectral displacements of damage states may be appropriate for existing low-rise, piloti-type buildings.