• Title/Summary/Keyword: forecasting model

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The Forecasting a Maximum Barbell Weight of Snatch Technique in Weightlifting (역도 인상동작 성공 시 최대 바벨무게 예측)

  • Hah, Chong-Ku;Ryu, Ji-Seon
    • Korean Journal of Applied Biomechanics
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    • v.15 no.3
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    • pp.143-152
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    • 2005
  • The purpose of this study was to predict the failure or success of the Snatch-lifting trial as a consequence of the stand-up phase simulated in Kane's equation of motion that was effective for the dynamic analysis of multi-segment. This experiment was a case study in which one male athlete (age: 23yrs, height: 154.4cm, weight: 64.5kg) from K University was selected The system of a simulation included a multi-segment system that had one degree of freedom and one generalized coordinate for the shank segment angle. The reference frame was fixed by the Nonlinear Trans formation (NLT) method in order to set up a fixed Cartesian coordinate system in space. A weightlifter lifted a 90kg-barbell that was 75% of subject's maximum lifting capability (120kg). For this study, six cameras (Qualisys Proreflex MCU240s) and two force-plates (Kistler 9286AAs) were used for collecting data. The motion tracks of 11 land markers were attached on the major joints of the body and barbell. The sampling rates of cameras and force-plates were set up 100Hz and 1000Hz, respectively. Data were processed via the Qualisys Track manager (QTM) software. Landmark positions and force-plate amplitudes were simultaneously integrated by Qualisys system The coordinate data were filtered using a fourth-order Butterworth low pass filtering with an estimated optimum cut-off frequency of 9Hz calculated with Andrew & Yu's formula. The input data of the model were derived from experimental data processed in Matlab6.5 and the solution of a model made in Kane's method was solved in Matematica5.0. The conclusions were as follows; 1. The torque motor of the shank with 246Nm from this experiment could lift a maximum barbell weight (158.98kg) which was about 246 times as much as subject's body weight (64.5kg). 2. The torque motor with 166.5 Nm, simulated by angular displacement of the shank matched to the experimental result, could lift a maximum barbell weight (90kg) which was about 1.4 times as much as subject's body weight (64.5kg). 3. Comparing subject's maximum barbell weight (120kg) with a modeling maximum barbell weight (155.51kg) and with an experimental maximum barbell weight (90kg), the differences between these were about +35.7kg and -30kg. These results strongly suggest that if the maximum barbell weight is decided, coaches will be able to provide further knowledge and information to weightlifters for the performance improvement and then prevent injuries from training of weightlifters. It hopes to apply Kane's method to other sports skill as well as weightlifting to simulate its motion in the future study.

Development of Determination Criteria Installing Crash Cushion on Freeway Off-Ramp (고속도로 진출램프 부근의 충격흡수시설 설치여부 판단기준 개발에 관한 연구)

  • 하태준;박제진;오재철
    • Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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    • v.20 no.7
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    • pp.107-116
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    • 2002
  • Crash Cushion is a kind of safety facilities on roadside which acts the role of absorbing impact energy when vehicles are driven out of normal route such as Gore area of freeway off ramp. Criteria for severity index considering accident occurrence possibility are needed to have strong effect on installing the facilities. However, present criteria for establishing crash cushion design do not include such processes. Therefore, the paper presents two kinds of study to develop criteria for severity index. First of all, development of accident forecasting model on freeway off ramp is presented. The module is a relationship between accidents and road environment by negative binomial distribution (NB) which is called to reflect very well quality of accidents at Gore of crash cushion installed freeway Secondly, freeway exiting behavior model is developed because the human factor is the most important one. However, many literatures have shown between road environment and accidents which are more quantitative than human factor. The study supposed advanced process steps on actual freeway and analysed correlation between variables and accidents. The criteria for severity index is presented to determine whether to install or not by benefit cost analysis for each module. The standard for severity index will help to determine whether to install the crash cushion or not and to estimate severity for freeway and off ramp.

Developing of Forest Fire Occurrence Danger Index Using Fuel and Topographical Characteristics on the Condition of Ignition Point in Korea (산불발화지점의 임상 및 지형특성을 이용한 산불발생위험지수 개발)

  • Lee Si-Young;Won Myoung-Soo;Han Sang-Yoel
    • Fire Science and Engineering
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    • v.19 no.4 s.60
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    • pp.75-79
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    • 2005
  • This study has developed Forest Fire Occurrence Danger Index (FFODI) using fuel and topographical characteristics for the practical purposes of forecasting forest fire occurrence danger rating. This was made on the basis of the 126 forest fire site according to field survey. The result of fire frequency analysis showed 87 sites on conifer $(69\%)$, 21 on mixed $(16.7\%)$ and 18 $(14.3\%)$ on non-conifer. The scale for Fuel Model Index(FMI) ranges from 1 to 10 and Topography Model Index(TMI) from 1 to 5. FMI is 10 on the conifer, 3 on the mixed and 2 on the non-conifer. In case of topographical analysis, it was estimated that 90 site $(71.4\%)$ of ignition point was bottom foot hill and 22 site $(17.5\%)$ was on the southwest. TMI in southwest direction is 5.0, 4.5 in the northwest and the northeast, 4.0 in the southeast and the south, 2.5 in the north and the west and 1.5 in the east. TMI in the bottom foot hill is 5 in the bottom foot hill, 1.5 in the upper foot hill, 1.0 in the bottom middle slope and 0.5 in the upper middle slope and bottom ridge.

Rule Discovery and Matching for Forecasting Stock Prices (주가 예측을 위한 규칙 탐사 및 매칭)

  • Ha, You-Min;Kim, Sang-Wook;Won, Jung-Im;Park, Sang-Hyun;Yoon, Jee-Hee
    • Journal of KIISE:Databases
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    • v.34 no.3
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    • pp.179-192
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    • 2007
  • This paper addresses an approach that recommends investment types for stock investors by discovering useful rules from past changing patterns of stock prices in databases. First, we define a new rule model for recommending stock investment types. For a frequent pattern of stock prices, if its subsequent stock prices are matched to a condition of an investor, the model recommends a corresponding investment type for this stock. The frequent pattern is regarded as a rule head, and the subsequent part a rule body. We observed that the conditions on rule bodies are quite different depending on dispositions of investors while rule heads are independent of characteristics of investors in most cases. With this observation, we propose a new method that discovers and stores only the rule heads rather than the whole rules in a rule discovery process. This allows investors to define various conditions on rule bodies flexibly, and also improves the performance of a rule discovery process by reducing the number of rules. For efficient discovery and matching of rules, we propose methods for discovering frequent patterns, constructing a frequent pattern base, and indexing them. We also suggest a method that finds the rules matched to a query issued by an investor from a frequent pattern base, and a method that recommends an investment type using the rules. Finally, we verify the superiority of our approach via various experiments using real-life stock data.

Quantification Model Development of Human Accidents on External Construction Site by Applying Probabilistic Method (확률론적 기법을 활용한 건설현장 외부 인명피해 정량화 모델 개발)

  • Ha, Sun-Geun;Kim, Tae-Hui;Son, Ki-Young;Kim, Ji-Myong;Son, Seung-Hyun
    • Journal of the Korea Institute of Building Construction
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    • v.18 no.6
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    • pp.611-619
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    • 2018
  • The researches have only conducted regarding construction safety management and risk on interior construction site(workers) and is insufficient about the exterior construction site(third party). As a result, ordinary people who were near construction sites have injured and hold a negative view when they think about the construction industry because construction industry have been exposed to them having a high accidents rate through media. In addition, the importance of industrial disaster prevention is emphasized at this point in time, the overall safety management system should be constructed with considering construction site external(third human) for improving the negative image of the construction industry among ordinary people. Therefore, the objective of this study is to develop the quantification model of human accident utilizing the insurance claim payout occurred construction site exterior(third party). In the future, it can be used as a reference for developing the safety management checklist in construction site interior exterior and development for forecasting control system of human accident.

Estimation of Inundation Area by Linking of Rainfall-Duration-Flooding Quantity Relationship Curve with Self-Organizing Map (강우량-지속시간-침수량 관계곡선과 자기조직화 지도의 연계를 통한 범람범위 추정)

  • Kim, Hyun Il;Keum, Ho Jun;Han, Kun Yeun
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.38 no.6
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    • pp.839-850
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    • 2018
  • The flood damage in urban areas due to torrential rain is increasing with urbanization. For this reason, accurate and rapid flooding forecasting and expected inundation maps are needed. Predicting the extent of flooding for certain rainfalls is a very important issue in preparing flood in advance. Recently, government agencies are trying to provide expected inundation maps to the public. However, there is a lack of quantifying the extent of inundation caused by a particular rainfall scenario and the real-time prediction method for flood extent within a short time. Therefore the real-time prediction of flood extent is needed based on rainfall-runoff-inundation analysis. One/two dimensional model are continued to analyize drainage network, manhole overflow and inundation propagation by rainfall condition. By applying the various rainfall scenarios considering rainfall duration/distribution and return periods, the inundation volume and depth can be estimated and stored on a database. The Rainfall-Duration-Flooding Quantity (RDF) relationship curve based on the hydraulic analysis results and the Self-Organizing Map (SOM) that conducts unsupervised learning are applied to predict flooded area with particular rainfall condition. The validity of the proposed methodology was examined by comparing the results of the expected flood map with the 2-dimensional hydraulic model. Based on the result of the study, it is judged that this methodology will be useful to provide an unknown flood map according to medium-sized rainfall or frequency scenario. Furthermore, it will be used as a fundamental data for flood forecast by establishing the RDF curve which the relationship of rainfall-outflow-flood is considered and the database of expected inundation maps.

A Study on Comparison Analysis for Calculating of Weapon System Operation Cost at the Development Stage (개발단계에서 무기체계 운영유지비 예측을 위한 비교분석 연구)

  • Jeong, Jun;Lee, Ki-Won;Cha, Jong-Han;Choi, Dong-Hyun;Park, Kyoung-Deok
    • Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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    • v.20 no.2
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    • pp.83-94
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    • 2019
  • Recently, the importance of Total Life Cycle System Management (TLCSM) and LIFE-CYCLE COSTS management is increasing in the development of weapon systems. In cost management, cost forecasting is important from the initial development stage, but it is difficult to predict the total life cycle cost at the development stage. In this study, we propose efficient management cost calculation and management at the development stage of the weapon system by comparison analysis between the PRICE-HL model and NemoSIM to calculate the maintenance cost under the CAIV concept. Based on the study results, further in-depth analyzes of the PRICE-HL model and NemoSIM input values / results are performed. In addition, we provide a more accurate method of calculating the cost of maintaining and operating the weapon system and a plan to utilize the result of NemoSIM in the ILS element development.

Prospective Supply and Demand of Medical Technologists in Korea through 2030 (임상병리사 인력의 수급전망과 정책방향)

  • Oh, Youngho
    • Korean Journal of Clinical Laboratory Science
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    • v.50 no.4
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    • pp.511-524
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    • 2018
  • The purpose of this study is to provide policy recommendations for manpower planning by forecasting the supply and demand of Medical Technologists. Supply was estimated using an in-and-out movement method with a demographic method based on a baseline projection model. Demand was projected according to a demand-based method using the number of clinico-pathologic examinations taken for Medical Technologists. Over- or undersupply of Medical Technologists will depend on the productivity scenario and assumptions and ultimately on governmental policy direction. In other words, whether the production of Medical Technologists is higher or lower than the current level depends on the government policy to consider insurance finances. In this study, we assessed 'productivity scenario 3' based on the productivity as of 2012, when the government's policy direction was not considered. Based on the demand scenario using the ARIMA model, the supply of Medical Technologists is expected to be excessive. This oversupply accounts for less than 10% of the total and therefore should not be a big problem. However, given that the employment rate of Medical Technologists is 60%, it is necessary to consider policies to utilize the unemployed. These measures should expand the employment opportunities for the unemployed. To this end, it is necessary to strengthen the functions of laboratories in the public health center, to increase the quota of Medical Technologists, to assure their status, to establish a permanent inspection system for outpatient patients, and to expand the export of Medical Technologists overseas.

An Analysis on Inter-Regional Price Linkage of Petroleum Products (석유제품 가격의 지역 간 연계성 분석)

  • Song, Hyojun;Lee, Hahn Shik
    • Environmental and Resource Economics Review
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    • v.28 no.1
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    • pp.121-145
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    • 2019
  • This paper investigates the relationship between the oil price and the major petroleum products prices at the trading hubs such as Singapore, North West Europe and the US New York Harbor. We focus on the lead-lag relationship between the weekly petroleum prices from 2009 to 2016 based on the vector error correction model. We find that the oil price leads the prices of petroleum products in the long term, while there is bidirectional causality in the short term. On the other hand, prices of petroleum products in regions with high import dependency, such as Europe gas oil and jet fuel price, are exogenous in the long term. We also present evidence that prices of petroleum products in region with a large global-market share lead prices in other regions. However, if the region is in an over-production situation and low industry concentration, it may lose its price leadership due to intense competition. The result in this study can provide a useful information to petroleum refining companies in forecasting fluctuations of product price, and hence in planning their regional arbitrage trading activities.

Forecasting of changes in the water quality in Sapgyo-Lake in accordance with implementation of Total Water Pollutant Load Management System (수질오염총량관리제 시행에 따른 삽교호의 수질변화 예측)

  • Kim, Hongsu;Cho, Byunguk;Park, Sanghyun;Lee, Mukyu;Kim, Changgi;Choi, Jeongho
    • Journal of Korean Society on Water Environment
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    • v.35 no.3
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    • pp.209-223
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    • 2019
  • Broadly speaking, in order to analyze the water quality improvement effects of the implementation of the Total Water Pollutant Management System in the Sapgy-Lake waterways, a reference was made to the [Plans for implementation of the Total Maximum Daily Load(TMDL)] in 3 cities (Cheonan, Asan, Dangjin). The results of the investigation into the plans to reduce the pollutant load show in that region show that there are plans to reduce pollution for a total of 16 reduction facilities. As for the result of the computation of the reduction in the load, these measurements were computed at the Gokgyo-stream basin and Namwon-stream basin, with BOD and T-P at the Gokgyo-stream basin reduced by 13.9 % and 13.3 %, respectively, while BOD and T-P at the Namwon-stream were reduced by 3.7 % and 3.3 %, respectively. In this way, thus using the results of the water quality forecast of Sapgyo-Lake in measures for the improvement of water quality (in accordance with the implementation of the TMDL), and using the QUAL-MEV model and EFDC model, it is noted that BOD will be improved by 26.4 % from 6.1 mg/L to 4.5 mg/L 0.0 %, T-P by 36.7 % from 0.168 mg/L to 0.107 mg/L and TOC by 26.4 % from 7.7 mg/L to 5.6 mg/L. However, it is forecasted that the targeted standards for the medium influence area will not be achieved. Evidently, Gokgyo-stream and Namwon-stream have been implementing the Total Water Pollutant Management System for the BOD items since January 1, 2019, but the Sapgyo-stream and Muhan-stream were excluded from being designated as subject regions. As such, it is noted now that it is necessary to implement the TMDL for the entire Sapgyo-Lake water systems including Sapgyo-stream and Muhan-stream in order to improve the water quality of Sapgyo-Lake, and likewise the T-P should be designated as the substance subjected to management in addition to BOD.