• 응용통계연구
• /
• 제22권5호
• /
• pp.1007-1017
• /
• 2009

본 연구는 최근에 활발히 연구가 진행 중인 항공수요 예측 분야에서 사용되는 계절형 ARIMA 모형과 다변량 계절형 시계열 모형과의 성능을 비교한 것이다. 본 연구에서는 국제 여객 수요와 국제 화물 수요 예측을 위하여 실제 자료를 이용하여 비교한 결과 다변량 계절형 시계열 모형이 예측의 정확도 면에서 기존의 일변량 모형보다 우수함을 보였다.

• 무역학회지
• /
• 제46권2호
• /
• pp.281-299
• /
• 2021

This paper analyzes the feasibility of using machine learning methods to forecast the employment. The machine learning methods, such as decision tree, artificial neural network, and ensemble models such as random forest and gradient boosting regression tree were used to forecast the employment in Busan regional economy. The following were the main findings of the comparison of their predictive abilities. First, the forecasting power of machine learning methods can predict the employment well. Second, the forecasting values for the employment by decision tree models appeared somewhat differently according to the depth of decision trees. Third, the predictive power of artificial neural network model, however, does not show the high predictive power. Fourth, the ensemble models such as random forest and gradient boosting regression tree model show the higher predictive power. Thus, since the machine learning method can accurately predict the employment, we need to improve the accuracy of forecasting employment with the use of machine learning methods.

• 한국대기환경학회지
• /
• 제15권6호
• /
• pp.779-789
• /
• 1999

To support daily ground-level $O_3$ forecasting in Seoul, a transfer function model(TFM) has been developed by using surface meteorological data and pollutant data(previous-day [$O_3$] and [$NO_2$]) from 1 May to 31 August in 1997. The forecast performance of the TFM was evaluated by statistical comparison with $O_3$ concentration observed during September it is shown that correlation coefficient(R), root mean squared error(RMSE), normalized mean squared error(NMSE) and mean relative error(MRE) were 0.73, 15.64, 0.006 and 0.101, respectively. The TFM appeared to have some difficulty forecasting very high $O_3$ concentrations. To compare with this model, multiple regression model(MRM) was developed for the same period. According to statistical comparison between the TFM and MRM. two models had similar predictive capability but TFM based on $O_3$ concentration higher than 60 ppb provided more accurate forecast than MRM. It was concluded that statistical model based on TFM can be useful for improving the accuracy of local $O_3$ forecast.

• 한국농공학회논문집
• /
• 제52권1호
• /
• pp.13-18
• /
• 2010

In this study the validities of runoff prediction methods are reviewed around ESP (Ensemble Streamflow Prediction) techniques. The improvements of runoff predictions on Yongdam river basin are evaluated by the comparison of different prediction methods including ESP incorporated with qualitative meteorological outlooks provided by meteorological agency as well as the runoff forecasting based on the analysis of the historical rainfall scenarios. As a result it is assessed that runoff predictions with ESP may give rise to more accurate results than the ordinary historical average runoffs. In deed the latter gave the mean of yearly absolute error as to be 60.86 MCM while the errors of the former ones amounted to 44.12 MCM (ESP) and 42.83 MCM (ESP incorporated with qualitative meteorological outlooks) respectively. In addition it is confirmed that ESP incorporated with qualitative meteorological outlooks could improve the accuracy of the results more and more. Especially the degree of improvement of ESP with meteorological outlooks shows rising by 10.8% in flood season and 8% in drought season. Therefore the methods of runoff predictions with ESP can be further used as the basic forecasting information tool for the purpose of the effective watershed management.

• 한국방재학회 논문집
• /
• 제11권3호
• /
• pp.17-28
• /
• 2011

본 연구에서는 초단기 예측강우의 편의(bias) 보정을 목적으로 G/R 비의 실시간 예측에 칼만 필터를 적용하였다. 초단기 예측강우로는 MAPLE 예측강우를 사용하였고, 강우의 임계치와 누적시간에 따른 G/R 비의 특성변화를 검토하여 G/R 비 산정방법도 개선하였다. 이러한 분석을 내륙, 산악, 해안 지역에 각기 적용하여 지역적 차이가 비교될 수 있도록 하였다. 결과적으로 강우의 임계치와 누적시간의 고려를 통해 안정화된 G/R 비의 산정이 가능하였으며, 이를 이용함으로서 예측 G/R 비의 정확성이 보다 향상되었다. 예측 G/R 비로 보정된 초단기 예측강우의 정도는 지역별로 내륙지역이 가장 우수한 것으로 나타난 반면에 해안지역에서 제일 열악한 것으로 나타났다.

• 아태비즈니스연구
• /
• 제15권1호
• /
• pp.319-334
• /
• 2024

Purpose - The purpose of this study is to examine the gravity model commonly used for demand forecasting upon the implementation of new tourist facilities and analyze the main causation of forecasting errors to provide a suggestion on how to improve. Design/methodology/approach - This study first measured the errors in predicted values derived from past feasibility study reports by examining the cases of five national science museums. Next, to improve the predictive accuracy of the gravity model, the study identified the five most likely issues contributing to errors, applied modified values, and recalculated. The potential for improvement was then evaluated through a comparison of forecasting errors. Findings - First, among the five science museums with very similar characteristics, there was no clear indication of a decrease in the number of visitors to existing facilities due to the introduction of new facilities. Second, representing the attractiveness of tourist facilities using the facility size ratio can lead to significant prediction errors. Third, the impact of distance on demand can vary depending on the characteristics of the facility and the conditions of the area where the facility is located. Fourth, if the distance value is below 1, it is necessary to limit the range of that value to avoid having an excessively small value. Fifth, depending on the type of population data used, prediction results may vary, so it is necessary to use population data suitable for each latent market instead of simply using overall population data. Finally, if a clear trend is anticipated in a certain type of tourist behavior, incorporating this trend into the predicted values could help reduce prediction errors. Research implications or Originality - This study identified the key factors causing prediction errors by using national science museums as cases and proposed directions for improvement. Additionally, suggestions were made to apply the model more flexibly to enhance predictive accuracy. Since reducing prediction errors contributes to increased reliability of analytical results, the findings of this study are expected to contribute to policy decisions handled with more accurate information when running feasibility analyses.

• 한국대기환경학회지
• /
• 제31권1호
• /
• pp.1-14
• /
• 2015

This study investigates the impact of enhanced regional meteorological fields on improvement of wind energy forecasting accuracy in the southwestern coast of the Korean Peninsula. To clarify the effect of detailed surface boundary data and application of analysis nudging technique on simulated meteorological fields, several WRF simulations were carried out. Case_LT, which is a simulation with high resolution terrain height and land use data, shows the most remarkable accuracy improvement along the shoreline mainly due to modified surface characteristics such as albedo, roughness length and thermal inertia. Case_RS with high resolution SST data shows accurate SST distributions compared to observation data, and they led to change in land and sea breeze circulation. Case_GN, grid nudging applied simulation, also shows changed temperature and wind fields. Especially, the application of grid nudging dominantly influences on the change of horizontal wind components in comparison with vertical wind component.

• Journal of Korean Society for Atmospheric Environment
• /
• 제24권E2호
• /
• pp.92-101
• /
• 2008

The objective of this study is to evaluate and improve the capability of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model in simulating fog and visibility in local airports over Korea. The WRF model system is statistically evaluated for the 48-fog cases over Korea from 2003 to 2006. Based on the 4-yr evaluations, attempts are made to improve the simulation skill of fog and visibility over Korea by revising the statistical coefficients in the visibility algorithms of the WRF model. A comparison of four existing visibility algorithms in the WRF model shows that uncertainties in the visibility algorithms include additional degree of freedom in accuracy of numerical fog forecasts over Korea. A revised statistical algorithm using a linear-regression between the observed visibility and simulated hydrometeors and humidity near the surface exhibits overall improvement in the visibility forecasts.

• 품질경영학회지
• /
• 제14권1호
• /
• pp.53-60
• /
• 1986

The purpose of this study has been finding where GMDH (Group Method of Data Handling) lies in accordance with comparing other methods and ascertaining the effectiveness of GMDH at the systems of forecasting method. Other methods used for the comparison are: multiple regression model, Brown's third exponential smoothing model. Also the study has reviewed how the expected value and equatior are changed by GMDH. At the same time, the study has also reviewed various characteristics made with comparatively a few data. In conclusion, GMDH is better than the other method in point of view fitness, high effectiveness in self-selection and self-construction of the variables.

• 한국해양공학회지
• /
• 제22권6호
• /
• pp.13-19
• /
• 2008

Abnormally large swells that appeared on the coast of the East Sea in October in 2005 and 2006 were simulated using SWAN model to examine the accuracy of the model for future forecasting Seawind data calculated based on the weather chart ant bottom topography were used for input data, and the model was operated more than 20 days before the observed swells to avoid the problems from the cold start of the model. The comparisons with observed wind and wave data were unsatisfactory and neededmore improvement in terms of swell component in the wave model as well as the quality of seawind data. The satellite wind and wave data can be good candidates for future comparison of the wave model results in the East Sea.