• Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
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• v.15 no.1
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• pp.50-58
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• 2013

This study was carried out to evaluate the geospatial characteristics of blooming date migration in three major spring flowers across North and South Korea as influenced by climate change. A thermal time-based phenology model driven by daily maximum and minimum temperature was adjusted for the key parameters (i.e., reference temperature, chilling requirement, heating requirement) used for predicting blooming of forsythia, azaleas, and Japanese cherry. The model was run by the RCP 8.5 projected temperature outlook over the Korean Peninsula and produced the mean booming dates for the three climatological normal years in the future (2011-2040, 2041-2070, and 2071-2100) at a 12.5 km grid spacing. Comparison against the observed blooming date patterns in the baseline climate (1971-2000) showed that there will be a substantial acceleration in blooming dates of the three species, resulting in cherry booming in February and flowers of azaleas and forsythia found at the top of mountain Baikdu by the 2071-2100 period. Flowering dates of the three species in the near future (2011-2040) may be accelerated by 3-5 days at minimum and 10-11 days at maximum compared with that in the baseline period (1971-2000). Those values corresponding to the middle future (2041-2070) can be from a minimum of 9-11 days to a maximum of 23-24 days. Blooming date of Japanese cherry can be accelerated by 26 days on average for the far future (2071-2100). The acceleration seems more prominent at islands and coastal plain areas than over inland mountainous areas.

• KOREAN JOURNAL OF CROP SCIENCE
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• v.57 no.2
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• pp.106-112
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• 2012

In order to understand the growth and ecophy -siological response of ginseng to global warming condition, we cultivated one and two year ginseng seedlings in control (ambient $CO_2$ + ambient temperature) and global warming treatment (elevated $CO_2$ + elevated temperature) from March 2010 to July 2011. Shoot appearance and initiation of flowering were advanced by 3-4 days in global warming treatment than in control. However, timing of fruit setting and seed ripeness was similar in both control and global warming treatment. Shoot length was longer in global warming treatment than in control, and also the number of leaves was much in global warming treatment. Fresh root weight was not different between control and global warming treatment. Photosynthetic rate was higher in global warming treatment than at control. Photosynthetic rate and transpiration rate were higher in two year seedlings than in one year seedlings at control, but was not different between seedling age of ginseng in global warming treatment. Water use efficiency was higher in one year seedlings than two year seedlings at control and global warming treatment. These results demonstrated that Korean ginseng more or less positively responds to global warming situation.

• Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
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• v.10 no.3
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• pp.94-101
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• 2008

Warming trends during winter seasons in East Asian regions are expected to accelerate in the future according to the climate projection by the Inter-governmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Warmer winters may affect short-term cold hardiness of deciduous fruit trees, and yet phenological observations are scant compared to long-term climate records in the regions. Dormancy depth, which can be estimated by daily temperature, is expected to serve as a reasonable proxy for physiological tolerance of flowering buds to low temperature in winter. In order to delineate the geographical pattern of short-term cold hardiness in grapevines, a selected dormancy depth model was parameterized for "Campbell Early", the major cultivar in South Korea. Gridded data sets of daily maximum and minimum temperature with a 270m cell spacing ("High Definition Digital Temperature Map", HDDTM) were prepared for the current climatological normal year (1971-2000) based on observations at the 56 Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA) stations and a geospatial interpolation scheme for correcting land surface effects (e.g., land use, topography, and site elevation). To generate relevant datasets for climatological normal years in the future, we combined a 25km-resolution, 2011-2100 temperature projection dataset covering South Korea (under the auspices of the IPCC-SRES A2 scenario) with the 1971-2000 HD-DTM. The dormancy depth model was run with the gridded datasets to estimate geographical pattern of change in the cold-hardiness period (the number of days between endo- and forced dormancy release) across South Korea for the normal years (1971-2000, 2011-2040, 2041-2070, and 2071-2100). Results showed that the cold-hardiness zone with 60 days or longer cold-tolerant period would diminish from 58% of the total land area of South Korea in 1971-2000 to 40% in 2011-2040, 14% in 2041-2070, and less than 3% in 2071-2100. This method can be applied to other deciduous fruit trees for delineating geographical shift of cold-hardiness zone under the projected climate change in the future, thereby providing valuable information for adaptation strategy in fruit industry.

• Proceedings of the Plant Resources Society of Korea Conference
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• 2020.08a
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• pp.31-31
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• 2020

본 연구는 대표적인 봄 꽃 식물인 진달래(Rhododendron mucronulatum Turcz.)의 개화시기를 예측하기 위해 지난 9년간(2011년-2019년) 주왕산 지역에 생육하는 진달래의 식물계절자료(파열·개화·개엽·만개·낙엽)와 기상자료(일평균기온·일최고기온·일최저기온)를 토대로 이탈리아 생물기상연구소(IBMET)의 Chill Day 개화 예측모형인 생물계절모형을 실시하였다. 생물계절모형에 의한 예상 발아일간 편차의 제곱을 최소로 하는 조합은 기준온도 5℃, 저온요구량과 가온요구량은 97.94로 나타났다. 즉, 휴면해제일로부터 기준온도 5℃로 Chill Day를 누적시켜 97.94에 도달하는 날짜가 낙엽~내생휴면해제일이자 내생휴면해제일~발아기간까지의 값이며, 내생휴면해제일을 기점으로 개화일까지 102.93이 개화에 필요한 가온량으로 나타났다. 2011년부터 2019년까지 개화예상일을 기상청 회귀모형을 실관측기온에 적용한 결과 오차는 MAE=1.44이며, 생물계절모형을 적용할 경우 오차는 MAE=1.39, 기준온도 5℃일 경우 MAE=4.23, 기준온도 6℃일 경우 MAE=5.47, 기준온도 7℃일 경우 MAE=5.05로 나타나 생물계절에 의한 관측과 기상청의 회귀모형이 가장 유사한 것으로 나타났다. 가장 최근인 2018년과 2019년의 기상청 회귀모형와 생물계절모형의 개화 예측일을 비교한 결과, 2018년의 경우 청송지역의 진달래는 기상청 회귀모형에서 3월 30일 전후로 개화를 예상하였고 생물계절모형은 기준온도 5℃에 적용할 경우 내생휴면일에 가장 근접한 날은 3월 26일이였으며 이를 기준으로 가온량의 합이 102.93에 가깝게 되는 날인 4월 2일을 전후로 개화를 예측하였다. 실제 청송 주왕산의 진달래는 4월 3일에 개화를 시작하여 생물계절모형과 매우 유사함을 확인하였다. 2019년의 경우 청송지역의 진달래는 기상청 회귀모형에서 3월 25일 전후로 개화를 예상하였고 생물계절모형은 기준온도 5℃에 적용할 경우 내생휴면일에 가장 근접한 날은 3월 8일이였으며 이를 기준으로 가온량의 합이 102.93에 가깝게 되는 날인 3월 29일을 전후로 개화를 예측하였다. 실제 청송 주왕산의 진달래는 4월 5일에 개화를 시작하여 오히려 생물계절모형과 더욱 유사함을 확인하였다.

• Korean Journal of Environment and Ecology
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• v.36 no.2
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• pp.177-201
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• 2022

Following the adoption of the global plant conservation strategies at the Conference of the Parties for Biodiversity Conservation, diligent actions to achieve each targets are actively carried out. In particular, the need for ecological conservation research to achieve targets 2 and 7 of GSPC-2020 has increased. The priority taxa to accomplish the objectives of GSPC-2020 are rare and endemic plants. In particular, endemic plants with limited distribution in specific regions are evaluated to face a high risk of extinction. To address the necessity to preserve endemic plants, we investigated the distribution of Prunus choreiana H. T. Im, a Korean endemic plant. After that, we examined the vegetational environment of the habitat of P. choreiana and evaluated its population structure. The productivity of its fruits and the effects of pollinators on fruit production were evaluated as well. The fruiting ratio was calculated based on the number of flowers produced. Lastly, we observed the annual growth characteristics of P. choreiana. The habitats of P. choreiana did not show a specific type of vegetation. All of them were located in a limestone area of Gangwon-do in the central Korean Peninsula and occupied a site where the coverage of the tree layer and the sub-tree layer was not high or did not exist. The population structure of P. choreiana contained a high proportion of mature plants capable of producing fruits and a low proportion of seedlings and Juvenile plants. We found that the production of fruits required pollinators and was affected by the performance of each plant. Although P. choreiana produces many flowers, only a maximum of 20% and only 2-6% on average bear fruits. These flowering characteristics may be due to pollinators' low abundance and activity during the flowering season (between mid-March and early April), suggesting that many flowers are needed to attract more pollinators. We rarely observed the re-establishment of seedlings in the population of P. choreiana. Despite that, we predict the population to persist owing to its long lifespan and periodic production of numerous fruits. However, if the tree layer and sub-tree layer in competing status with P. choreiana increase their crown density, they are expected to inhibit the growth of P. choreiana and affect the risk of its extinction. Therefore, the current changes in the vegetational environment of the habitats are expected to decrease the number and extent of P. choreiana in the long term. The results of this study may serve as primary and important data necessary for the achievement of GSPC-2020 objectives.