• 한국농공학회논문집
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• 제52권6호
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• pp.63-73
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• 2010

This study is to develop a downstream flood damage prediction model for efficient confrontation in case of extreme and flash flood by future probable small agricultural dam break situation. For a Changri reservoir (0.419 million $m^3$) located in Yongin city of Gyeonggi province, a dam break scenario was prepared. With the probable maximum flood (PMF) condition calculated from the probable maximum precipitation (PMP), the flood condition by dam break was generated by using the HEC-HMS (Hydrologic Engineering Center - Hydrologic Modeling System) model. The flood propagation to the 1.12 km section of Hwagok downstream was simulated using HEC-RAS (Hydrologic Engineering Center - River Analysis System) model. The flood damaged areas were generated by overtopping from the levees and the boundaries were extracted for flood damage prediction, and the degree of flood damage was evaluated using IDEM (Inundation Damage Estimation Method) by modifying MD-FDA (Multi-Dimensional Flood Damage Analysis) and regression analysis simple method. The result of flood analysis by dam-break was predicted to occurred flood depth of 0.4m in interior floodplain by overtopping under PMF scenario, and maximum flood depth was predicted up to 1.1 m. Moreover, for the downstream of the Changri reservoir, the total amount of the maximum flood damage by dam-break was calculated nearly 1.2 billion won by IDEM.

• 정보처리학회논문지B
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• 제18B권5호
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• pp.271-278
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• 2011

최근 급증하는 기상이변 및 기후온난화 현상은 풍수로 인한 피해를 더욱 가속시키고 있어 풍수해 발생가능성을 미리 예측하여 선제적으로 대응할 방안 마련이 필요하다. 재난 재해의 위험성 분석은 주로 확률 통계기법에 기반한 수식모델 연구가 주류를 이루고 있고 소방방재청 국립방재연구소에서 구축한 태풍위원회 재해정보시스템(TCDIS: Typhoon Committee Disaster Information System) 또한 지역별 풍수해 위험성 분석에 확률모델을 활용하고 있다. 본 논문에서는 경험적 패턴인식에 탁월한 성능을 가진 신경망 알고리즘을 활용하여 개발한 풍수해 예측모델을 소개하고 이 모델과 TCDIS의 KDF 확률밀도함수를 이용한 풍수해 예측모델의 성능 비교 결과를 제시하여 기존 TCDIS의 위험성 분석기능에 신경망 모델을 적용함으로써 시스템의 강건성과 예측 정확도 향상이 가능함을 보이고자 한다.

• 대한원격탐사학회:학술대회논문집
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• 대한원격탐사학회 2006년도 Proceedings of ISRS 2006 PORSEC Volume II
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• pp.884-887
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• 2006

This paper focuses on minimizing flood damage in the Yeongdeok basin of South Korea by establishing a flood prediction model based on a geographic information system (GIS), remote sensing, and geomorphoclimatic instantaneous unit hydrograph (GcIUH) techniques. The GIS database for flash flood prediction was created using data from digital elevation models (DEMs), soil maps, and Landsat satellite imagery. Flood prediction was based on the peak discharge calculated at the sub-basin scale using hydrogeomorphologic techniques and the threshold runoff value. Using the developed flash flood prediction model, rainfall conditions with the potential to cause flooding were determined based on the cumulative rainfall for 20 minutes, considering rainfall duration, peak discharge, and flooding in the Yeongdeok basin.

• 한국농공학회논문집
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• 제62권3호
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• pp.95-107
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• 2020

The failures of the agricultural reservoirs that most have more than 50 years, have increased due to the abnormal weather and localized heavy rains. There are many studies on the prediction of damage from reservoir collapse, however, these referenced studies focused on evaluating reservoir collapse as single unit and applyed to one and two dimensional hydrodynamic model to identify the fluid flow. This study is to estimate failure probability of spillway, sliding, bearing capacity and overflowing targeting small and medium scale agricultural reservoirs. In addition, we calculate failure probability by complex mode. Moreover, we predict downstream flood damage by reservoir failure applying three dimensional hydrodynamic model. When the reservoir destroyed, the results are as follows; (1) the flow of fluid proceeds to same stream direction and to a lower slope by potential and kinetic energy; (2) The predicted damage in downstream is evaluated that damage due to building destruction is the highest.

• 한국측량학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국측량학회 2004년도 추계학술발표회 논문집
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• pp.389-392
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• 2004

A recent unusual change in the weather is formed as a localized heavy rain in a short time. This phenomenon has caused a flash flood, and flash floods extensively have damaged human lives many times. In large river's case, the extent of loss of lives and properties has been decreased through the flood warning system by flood control stations of each stream. However, the extent of damage in other small rivers has increased reversely. Therefore, it is necessary to establish a new flood warning system against flash floods instead of the existing flood warning system. It is a specific character that the damage from flash floods in mountain streams brings much more loss of lives than large river's flood. The purpose of this study is calculating the characteristic of flash floods in streams, analyzing topographical characteristics of water basin through applying GIS techniques with the calculation as mentioned above and researching what topographical conditions have influence on hydrological flash floods in water basin. The flash flood prediction model we used is made by GIUH (geomorphoclimatic instantaneous unit hydrograph) with hydrologic-topographical technology. As applying the flash flood prediction model, this is a procedure for calculating topographical information in basin: we made a topological data up out of database with utilizing GIS, and we also produced a DEM (digital elevation model) and used it as a topographical data for determining amount of flash floods.

• 한국수자원학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국수자원학회 2017년도 학술발표회
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• pp.194-194
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• 2017

Flooding is one of the most serious and frequently occurred natural disaster at many regions around the world. Especially, under the climate change impact, it is more and more increasingly trend. To reduce the flood damage, flood forecast and its accuracy analysis are required. This study is conducted to analyze the accuracy of the real-time flood forecasting of a coupled meteo-hydrological model for the Han River basin, South Korea. The LDAPS (Local Data Assimilation and Prediction System) products with the spatial resolution of 1.5km and lead time of 36 hours are extracted and used as inputs for the SURR (Sejong University Rainfall-Runoff) model. Three statistical criteria consisting of CC (Corelation Coefficient), RMSE (Root Mean Square Error) and ME (Model Efficiency) are used to evaluate the performance of this couple. The results are expected that the accuracy of the flood forecasting reduces following the increase of lead time corresponding to the accuracy reduction of LDAPS rainfall. Further study is planed to improve the accuracy of the real-time flood forecasting.

• 한국수자원학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국수자원학회 2006년도 학술발표회 논문집
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• pp.1145-1149
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• 2006

The typhoon Rusa passed through the Korean peninsula from the west-southern part to the east-northern part in the summer season of 2002. The flash flood due to the Rusa was occurred over the Korean peninsula and especially the damage was concentrated in Kangnung, Yangyang, Kosung, and Jeongsun areas of Kangwon-Do. Since the latter half of the 1990s the flash flood has became one of the frequently occurred natural disasters in Korea. Flash floods are a significant threat to lives and properties. The government has prepared against the flood disaster with the structural and nonstructural measures such as dams, levees, and flood forecasting systems. However, since the flood forecasting system requires the rainfall observations as the input data of a rainfall-runoff model, it is not a realistic system for the flash flood which is occurred in the small basins with the short travel time of flood flow. Therefore, the flash flood forecasting system should be constructed for providing the realistic alternative plan for the flash flood. To do so, firstly, Flash Flood Monitoring and Prediction (FFMP) Model must be developed suitable to Korea terrain. In this paper, We develop the FFMP model which is based on GIS, Radar techniques and hydro-geomorphologic approaches. We call it the F2MAP model. F2MAP model has three main components (1) radar rainfall estimation module for the Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts (QPF), (2) GIS Module for the Digital terrain analysis, called TOPAZ(Topographic PArametiZation), (3) hydrological module for the estimation of threshold runoff and Flash Flood Guidance(FFG). For the performance test of the model developed in this paper, F2MAP model applied to the Kangwon-Do, Korea, where had a severe damage by the Typhoon Rusa in August, 2002. The result shown that F2MAP model is suitable for the monitoring and the prediction of flash flood.

• 한국정보통신학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국정보통신학회 2022년도 추계학술대회
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• pp.216-218
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• 2022

이상 기후로 인한 자연 재해는 지속적으로 증가하고 있으며, 자연재해 중 가장 많은 피해를 입히는 유형은 폭우, 태풍 등으로 인한 수해 피해로 이러한 재해는 홍수를 동반하여 더욱 큰 피해를 입히기도 한다. 따라서, 홍수 피해를 줄이기 위해 본 논문에서는 LSTM과 GRU를 활용하여 실시간으로 홍수의 주요 파라미터인 수위를 실시간으로 예측할 수 있는 시스템을 제안한다. 홍수 예측을 위해 사용된 입력 데이터는 하천의 상류 및 하류 수위, 기온, 습도, 강수량이 사용되며, 사전에 학습된 LSTM-GRU 모델을 통해 실시간 예측을 진행한다. 입력 데이터는 과거 20시간의 데이터를 활용하여 향후 3시간의 수위를 예측한다. 본 논문에서 제안한 시스템을 통해 위험도 판별 기능을 추가하고 홍수에 노출된 사람들에게 대피 명령을 내릴 수 있다면 홍수로 인한 많은 피해를 줄일 수 있을 것으로 사료된다.

• 한국전자통신학회논문지
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• 제18권1호
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• pp.91-98
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• 2023

최근 국지성 폭우로 인한 침수 피해가 빈번하게 발생함에 따라 침수 피해를 사전 예방하기 위한 침수 예측 연구가 진행되고 있다. 본 논문에서는 머신 러닝 기반으로 강우 데이터를 이용해 침수 깊이와 침수 위치를 예측하는 모델을 개발하는 방법을 연구한다. 실시간 강우량을 입력으로 사용하여 다양한 강우 분포 패턴에 강건하게 구성하고 적은 메모리로 모델을 학습시킬 수 있는 2가지 데이터 셋(set) 구성 방법을 제시하였다. 침수에 유의미한 영향을 미치는 valid total 데이터는 침수 위치는 잘 예측했지만, 특정 강우 패턴에 대해 값이 다르게 나타나는 경향을 띠었다. 부분적이지만 침수에 영향을 미치는 영역을 valid local이라 한다. Valid local은 고정점 방법에 대해서는 잘 학습되었지만, 임의점 방법에 대해서는 침수 위치를 정확하게 나타내지 못했다. 본 연구를 통해 실시간으로 침수 깊이와 위치를 예측할 수 있게 되어 큰 피해를 예방할 수 있을 것으로 예상된다.

• 한국정보통신학회논문지
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• 제25권11호
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• pp.1471-1476
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• 2021

수해는 홍수나 해일을 유발하여 막대한 인명과 재산의 피해를 초래할 수 있다. 이에 대해 홍수 예측을 통한 빠른 대피 결정으로 피해를 줄일 수 있으며, 해당 분야에서는 시계열 데이터를 활용하여 홍수를 예측하려는 연구들도 많이 진행되고 있다. 본 논문에서는 CNN 기반의 시계열 예측 모델을 제안한다. 하천의 수위와 강수량을 사용하여 CNN 기반의 수위 예측 모델을 구현하였고, 시계열 예측에 많이 사용되는 LSTM, GRU 모델과 비교하여 성능을 확인하였다. 또한 입력 데이터의 크기에 따른 성능 차이를 확인하여 보완해야 할 점을 찾을 수 있었고, LSTM과 GRU보다 더 좋은 성능을 낼 수 있다는 것을 확인하였다. 이를 통해 홍수 예측을 위한 초기 연구로서 활용할 수 있을 것으로 사료된다.