• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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• v.54 no.6
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• pp.419-431
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• 2021

In Seoul, it has been confirmed that the duration of rainfall is shortened and the frequency and intensity of heavy rains are increasing with a changing climate. In addition, due to high population density and urbanization in most areas, floods frequently occur in flood-prone areas for the increase in impermeable areas. Furthermore, the Seoul City is pursuing various projects such as structural and non-structural measures to resolve flood-prone areas. A disaster prevention performance target was set in consideration of the climate change impact of future precipitation, and this study conducted to reduce the overall flood damage in Seoul for the long-term. In this study, 29 GCMs with RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios were used for spatial and temporal disaggregation, and we also considered for 3 research periods, which is short-term (2006-2040, P1), mid-term (2041-2070, P2), and long-term (2071-2100, P3), respectively. For spatial downscaling, daily data of GCM was processed through Quantile Mapping based on the rainfall of the Seoul station managed by the Korea Meteorological Administration and for temporal downscaling, daily data were downscaled to hourly data through k-nearest neighbor resampling and nonparametric temporal detailing techniques using genetic algorithms. Through temporal downscaling, 100 detailed scenarios were calculated for each GCM scenario, and the IDF curve was calculated based on a total of 2,900 detailed scenarios, and by averaging this, the change in the future extreme rainfall was calculated. As a result, it was confirmed that the probability of rainfall for a duration of 100 years and a duration of 1 hour increased by 8 to 16% in the RCP4.5 scenario, and increased by 7 to 26% in the RCP8.5 scenario. Based on the results of this study, the amount of rainfall designed to prepare for future climate change in Seoul was estimated and if can be used to establish purpose-wise water related disaster prevention policies.

• Magazine of the Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers
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• v.24 no.4
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• pp.69-79
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• 1982

The objective of this study is to contribute to drainage planning in the most realistic and economical way by establishing the relationship between rice yield reduction and overhead flooding by muddy water of each growth stage of paddy, which is the most important factor in determining optimum drainage facilities. This study was based on the data mainly from the experimental reports of the Office of Rural Development of Korea, Reduction Rate Estimation for Summer Crops, published by Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry of Japan and other related research documenta- tion. The results of this study are summarized as follows 1. Damages by overhead flooding are highest in heading stage and have the tendency of decrease in the order of booting stage, panicle formation stage, tillering stage, and stage just after transplanting. Damages by overhead flooding of each growing stage are as follows: a) It is considered that overhead flooding just after transplanting gives a little influence on plant growth and yield because the paddy has sufficient growth period from floo ding to harvest time. b) Jt is analyzed that according to the equation y=11 12x 0.908 which is derived from this study, damages by overhead flooding during tillering stage for 1, 2, 3 successive days are 11.1 %, 20.9%, and 30.2% respectively. c) Damages by overhead flooding after panicle formation stage are very serious because recovering period is very short after damage and ineffective tillering is much. Acc- ording to the equation y=9. 58x+10. Ol derived from this study, damages by overhead flooding fal 1,2,3,5 successive days are 19.6%, 29.2%, 38.8%, 57.9% respectively. d) Booting stage is the very important period in which young panicle has grown up almost completely and the number of glumous flower is fixed since reduction division takes place in the microspore mother cell and enbryo mother cell. According to the equation y=39. 66x 0.558 derived from this study, damages by overhead floodingfor 0.5, 1, 3, 5 successive days are 26.9%, 39.7%, 72. 2% and 97.4%, respectively. Therefore, damages by overhead flooding is very serious during the hooting stage. e) When ear of paddy emerges, flowering begins on that day or the next day; when paddy flowers, fertilization will be completed 2-3 hours after flowering. Therefore overhead flooding during heading stage impedes flowering and increases sterilizing percentage. From this reason damages of heading stage are larger than that of booting stage. According to the equation y-41 94x 0.589 derived from this study, damages by overhead flooding for 0.5, 1, 3, 5, successive days are 27.9%, 63.1 %, 80.1%, and 100% 2. Considering that temperature of booting stage is higher than that of beading stage and plant height of booting stage is ten centimeters shorter than that of heading stage, booting stage should be taken as a critical period for drainage planning because possi- bility of damage occurrence in booting stage is larger than that of heading stage. There-fore, it is considered that booting stage should be taken as critical period of paddy growth for drainage planning. 3. Overhead flooding depth is different depending on the stage of growth. In case, booting stage is adopted as design stage of growth for drainage planning, it is conside red that the allowable flooding depth for new varieties and general varieties are 70cm and 80cm respectively. 4. Reduction Rate Estimation by Wind and Flood for Rice Planting of the present design criteria for drainage planning shows damage by overhead flooding for 1 to 2, 3 to 4, 5 to 7 consecutive days; damages by overhead flooding varies considerably over several hours and experimental condition of soil, variety of paddy, and climate differs with real situation. From these reasons, damage by flooding could not be estimated properly in the past. This study has derived the equation which shows damages by flooding of each growth stage on an hourly basis. Therefore, it has become possible to compute the exact damages in case duration of overhead flooding is known.

• Journal of Korean Society of Forest Science
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• v.45 no.1
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• pp.11-25
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• 1979

There was much mass movement at many different mountain side of Peong Chang area in Kwangwon province by the influence of heavy rainfall through August/4 5, 1979. This study have done with the fact observed through the field survey and the information of the former researchers. The results are as follows; 1. Heavy rainfall area with more than 200mm per day and more than 60mm per hour as maximum rainfall during past 6 years, are distributed in the western side of the connecting line through Hoeng Seong, Weonju, Yeongdong, Muju, Namweon and Suncheon, and of the southern sea side of KeongsangNam-do. The heavy rain fan reason in the above area seems to be influenced by the mouktam range and moving direction of depression. 2. Peak point of heavy rainfall distribution always happen during the night time and seems to cause directly mass movement and serious damage. 3. Soil mass movement in Peongchang break out from the course sandy loam soil of granite group and the clay soil of lime stone and shale. Earth have moved along the surface of both bedrock or also the hardpan in case of the lime stone area. 4. Infiltration seems to be rapid on the both bedrock soil, the former is by the soil texture and the latter is by the crumb structure, high humus content and dense root system in surface soil. 5. Topographic pattern of mass movement spot is mostly the concave slope at the valley head or at the upper part of middle slope which run-off can easily come together from the surrounding slope. Soil profile of mass movement spot has wet soil in the lime stone area and loose or deep soil in the granite area. 6. Dominant slope degree of the soil mass movement site has steep slope, mostly, more than 25 degree and slope position that start mass movement is mostly in the range of the middle slope line to ridge line. 7. Vegetation status of soil mass movement area are mostly fire field agriculture area, it's abandoned grass land, young plantation made on the fire field poor forest of the erosion control site and non forest land composed mainly grass and shrubs. Very rare earth sliding can be found in the big tree stands but mostly from the thin soil site on the un-weatherd bed rock. 8. Dangerous condition of soil mass movement and land sliding seems to be estimated by the several environmental factors, namely, vegetation cover, slope degree, slope shape and position, bed rock and soil profile characteristics etc. 9. House break down are mostly happen on the following site, namely, colluvial cone and fan, talus, foot area of concave slope and small terrace or colluvial soil between valley and at the small river side Dangerous house from mass movement could be interpreted by the aerial photo with reference of the surrounding site condition of house and village in the mountain area 10. As a counter plan for the prevention of mass movement damage the technics of it's risk diagnosis and the field survey should be done, and the mass movement control of prevention should be started with the goverment support as soon as possible. The precautionary measures of house and village protection from mass movement damage should be made and executed and considered the protecting forest making around the house and village. 11. Dangerous or safety of house and village from mass movement and flood damage will be indentified and informed to the village people of mountain area through the forest extension work. 12. Clear cutting activity on the steep granite site, fire field making on the steep slope, house or village construction on the dangerous site and fuel collection in the eroded forest or the steep forest land should be surely prohibited When making the management plan the mass movement, soil erosion and flood problem will be concidered and also included the prevention method of disaster.

• Journal of the Korean Geographical Society
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• v.41 no.1 s.112
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• pp.106-120
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• 2006

Natural or man-made disaster has been expected to be one of the potential themes that can integrate human geography and physical geography. Typhoons like Rusa and Maemi caused great loss to insurance companies as well as public sectors. We have implemented a natural disaster management system for a private insurance company to produce better estimation of hazards from high wind as well as calculate vulnerability of damage. Climatic gauge sites and addresses of contract's objects were geo-coded and the pressure values along all the typhoon tracks were vectorized into line objects. National GIS topog raphic maps with scale of 1: 5,000 were updated into base maps and digital elevation model with 30 meter space and land cover maps were used for reflecting roughness of land to wind velocity. All the data are converted to grid coverage with $1km{\times}1km$. Vulnerability curve of Munich Re was ad opted, and preprocessor and postprocessor of wind velocity model was implemented. Overlapping the location of contracts on the grid value coverage can show the relative risk, with given scenario. The wind velocities calculated by the model were compared with observed value (average $R^2=0.68$). The calibration of wind speed models was done by dropping two climatic gauge data, which enhanced $R^2$ values. The comparison of calculated loss with actual historical loss of the insurance company showed both underestimation and overestimation. This system enables the company to have quantitative data for optimizing the re-insurance ratio, to have a plan to allocate enterprise resources and to upgrade the international creditability of the company. A flood model, storm surge model and flash flood model are being added, at last, combined disaster vulnerability will be calculated for a total disaster management system.

• Journal of Korean Society of Disaster and Security
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• v.12 no.2
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• pp.73-82
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• 2019

Recently, as the occurrence frequency of sudden floods due to climate change increased, the flood damage on riverside social infrastructures was extended so that there has been a threat of overflow. Therefore, a rapid prediction of potential flooding in riverside social infrastructure is necessary for administrators. However, most current flood forecasting models including hydraulic model have limitations which are the high accuracy of numerical results but longer simulation time. To alleviate such limitation, data driven models using artificial neural network have been widely used. However, there is a limitation that the existing models can not consider the time-series parameters. In this study the water surface elevation of the Hangang River bridge was predicted using the NARX model considering the time-series parameter. And the results of the ANN and RNN models are compared with the NARX model to determine the suitability of NARX model. Using the 10-year hydrological data from 2009 to 2018, 70% of the hydrological data were used for learning and 15% was used for testing and evaluation respectively. As a result of predicting the water surface elevation after 3 hours from the Hangang River bridge in 2018, the ANN, RNN and NARX models for RMSE were 0.20 m, 0.11 m, and 0.09 m, respectively, and 0.12 m, 0.06 m, and 0.05 m for MAE, and 1.56 m, 0.55 m and 0.10 m for peak errors respectively. By analyzing the error of the prediction results considering the time-series parameters, the NARX model is most suitable for predicting water surface elevation. This is because the NARX model can learn the trend of the time series data and also can derive the accurate prediction value even in the high water surface elevation prediction by using the hyperbolic tangent and Rectified Linear Unit function as an activation function. However, the NARX model has a limit to generate a vanishing gradient as the sequence length becomes longer. In the future, the accuracy of the water surface elevation prediction will be examined by using the LSTM model.

• KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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• v.29 no.1B
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• pp.11-22
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• 2009

Long-term rainfall-runoff modeling is a key element in the Earth's hydrological cycle, and associated with many different aspects such as dam design, drought management, river management flow, reservoir management for water supply, water right permission or coordinate, water quality prediction. In this regard, hydrologists have used the hydrologic models for design criteria, water resources assessment, planning and management as a main tool. Most of rainfall-runoff studies, however, were not carefully performed in terms of considering reservoir effects. In particular, the downstream where is severely affected by reservoir was poorly dealt in modeling rainfall-runoff process. Moreover, the effects can considerably affect overall the rainfallrunoff process. An objective of this study, thus, is to evaluate the impact of reservoir operation on rainfall-runoff process. The proposed approach is applied to Anseong watershed, where is in a mixed rural/urban setting of the area and in Korea, and has been experienced by flood damage due to heavy rainfall. It has been greatly paid attention to the agricultural reservoirs in terms of flood protection in Korea. To further investigate the reservoir effects, a comprehensive assessment for the results are discussed. Results of simulations that included reservoir in the model showed the effect of storage appeared in spring and autumn when rainfall was not concentrated. In periods of heavy rainfall, however, downstream runoff increased in simulations that do not consider reservoir factor. Flow duration curve showed that changes in streamflow depending upon the presence or absence of reservoir factor were particularly noticeable in ninety-five day flow and low flow.

• Journal of Ocean Engineering and Technology
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• v.33 no.6
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• pp.590-596
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• 2019

Numerous deaths and substantial property damage have occurred recently due to frequent disasters of the highest intensity according to the abnormal climate, which is caused by various problems, such as global warming, all over the world. Such large-scale disasters have become an international issue and have made people aware of the disasters so they can implement disaster-prevention measures. Extensive information on disaster prevention actively has been announced publicly to support the natural disaster reduction measures throughout the world. In Japan, diverse developmental studies on disaster prevention systems, which support hazard map development and flood control activity, have been conducted vigorously to estimate external forces according to design frequencies as well as expected maximum frequencies from a variety of areas, such as rivers, coasts, and ports based on broad disaster prevention data obtained from several huge disasters. However, the current reduction measures alone are not sufficiently effective due to the change of the paradigms of the current disasters. Therefore, in order to obtain the synergy effect of reduction measures, a study of the establishment of an integrated system is required to improve the various disaster prevention technologies and the current disaster prevention system. In order to develop a similar typhoon search system and establish a disaster prevention infrastructure, in this study, techniques will be developed that can be used to forecast typhoons before they strike by using artificial intelligence (AI) technology and offer primary disaster prevention information according to the direction of the typhoon. The main function of this model is to predict the most similar typhoon among the existing typhoons by utilizing the major typhoon information, such as course, central pressure, and speed, before the typhoon directly impacts South Korea. This model is equipped with a combination of AI and DNN forecasts of typhoons that change from moment to moment in order to efficiently forecast a current typhoon based on similar typhoons in the past. Thus, the result of a similar typhoon search showed that the quality of prediction was higher with the grid size of one degree rather than two degrees in latitude and longitude.

• Journal of Korean Society of Coastal and Ocean Engineers
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• v.29 no.6
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• pp.363-368
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• 2017

The tsunami flood the coastal cities and damage the land structures. The study on wave pressure and force on land structures is one of the important factors in designing the stability of inland structures. In this study, two - dimensional wave flume tests on the horizontal wave force and pressure of tsunamis on a simplified box-type structure was conducted. Vertical distribution and wave power of horizontal wave pressure over time were measured by pressure sensors and force transducer. Also, those were measured from the different wave breaking types. The vertical distribution of horizontal wave pressure was uniform at the moment when the horizontal wave force to the structure was maximum under the breaking wave condition. A surf similarity parameter was employed in order to figure out the relationship between the maximum horizontal wave force on the structure as a function of various incident wave conditions. As a result, the non - dimensionalized horizontal wave force tends to decrease exponentially as the surf similarity parameter increases.

• KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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• v.34 no.1
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• pp.135-143
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• 2014

This study classified abnormal sea surface temperature changes of the central pacific region according to three evolution patterns. Focusing on typhoons that affect the Korean Peninsula, the research analyzed typhoon's occurrence spot and track, change in the central pressure characteristics, and the characteristics of change in typhoon precipitation and the number of occurrences of heavy rainfall in the Nakdong River Basin. As a result of analysis, in case of prolonged-decaying years and symmetric-decaying years, typhoon-related summer rainfall and heavy rainy days appeared to be higher than long-term average. But in case of abrupt-decaying years, the pattern of general decrease appeared. This is because typhoon's occurrence spot is located comparatively near the Korean peninsula, typhoon's central pressure is high, and typhoon's route generally moves to Japan. As the outcome, this study is expected to reduce flood damage through analyzing the characteristics of typhoon's activity according to CP El Ni$\tilde{n}$o evolution patterns and the characteristics of local typhoon rainfall. In addition, it is expected to provide useful information for establishing adaptation and mitigation to climate change.

• KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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• v.38 no.3
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• pp.395-406
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• 2018

The XP-SWMM model, widely used for inundation analysis of urban watersheds, underestimated the inundation area (range) because the manhole was regarded as a node and the influence of the local loss occurring in the surcharged manhole can not be considered. Therefore, it is necessary to analyze the applicability of the head loss coefficients considering the local loss in the surcharged manholes in inundation analysis using XP-SWMM. The Dorim 1 drainage section of the Dorim-river watershed, where frequent domestic flood damage occurred, was selected as the study watershed. The head loss coefficients of the surcharged manholes estimated from the previous experimental studies were applied to the inundation analysis, and the changes of the inundation area with and without the application of the head loss coefficients with manhole types were compared and analyzed. As a result of inundation simulation with the application of head loss coefficients, the matching rates were increased by 17% in comparison with the without application of them. In addition, the simulated inundation area applied only the head loss coefficients of straight path manholes and applied up to the head loss coefficients of combining manholes ($90^{\circ}$ bend, 3-way, and 4-way) were similar. Therefore, in order to accurately simulate the storm drain system in urban areas, it could be to carry out two-dimensional inundation analysis considering the head loss coefficients at the surcharged manholes. It was expected that the study results will be utilized as basic data for establishing the identification of the inundation risk area.