• Title/Summary/Keyword: flexible decision algorithm

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A Study on Applications of CSP for Multi-Agent (멀티에이전트를 이용한 CSP의 활용에 관한 연구)

  • Kim, Jin-Su
    • The Journal of Engineering Research
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    • v.7 no.1
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    • pp.17-28
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    • 2005

  • A distributed constraint satisfaction problem (distributed CSP) is a constraint satisfaction problem (CSP) in which variables and constraints are distributed among multiple automated agents. A CSP is a problem to find a consistent assignment of values to variables. Even though the definition of a CSP is very simple, a surprisingly wide variety of AI problems can be formalized as CSPs. Similarly, various application problems in DAI (Distributed AI) that are concerned with finding a consistent combination of agent actions can be formalized as distributed CPSs. The experimental results on example problems show that this algorithm is by far more efficient than the backtracking algorithm, in which the priority order is static. The priority order represents a hierarchy of agent authority, i.e., the priority of decision-marking. Therefore, these results imply that a flexible agent organization, in which the hierarchical order is changed dynamically, actually performs better than an organization in which the hierarchical order is static and rigid. Furthermore, we describe that the agent can be available to hold multiple variables in the searching scheme.

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Doubly-robust Q-estimation in observational studies with high-dimensional covariates (고차원 관측자료에서의 Q-학습 모형에 대한 이중강건성 연구)

  • Lee, Hyobeen;Kim, Yeji;Cho, Hyungjun;Choi, Sangbum
    • The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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    • v.34 no.3
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    • pp.309-327
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    • 2021

  • Dynamic treatment regimes (DTRs) are decision-making rules designed to provide personalized treatment to individuals in multi-stage randomized trials. Unlike classical methods, in which all individuals are prescribed the same type of treatment, DTRs prescribe patient-tailored treatments which take into account individual characteristics that may change over time. The Q-learning method, one of regression-based algorithms to figure out optimal treatment rules, becomes more popular as it can be easily implemented. However, the performance of the Q-learning algorithm heavily relies on the correct specification of the Q-function for response, especially in observational studies. In this article, we examine a number of double-robust weighted least-squares estimating methods for Q-learning in high-dimensional settings, where treatment models for propensity score and penalization for sparse estimation are also investigated. We further consider flexible ensemble machine learning methods for the treatment model to achieve double-robustness, so that optimal decision rule can be correctly estimated as long as at least one of the outcome model or treatment model is correct. Extensive simulation studies show that the proposed methods work well with practical sample sizes. The practical utility of the proposed methods is proven with real data example.

  • https://doi.org/10.5351/KJAS.2021.34.3.309 인용 PDF KSCI

Modeling for Egg Price Prediction by Using Machine Learning (기계학습을 활용한 계란가격 예측 모델링)

  • Cho, Hohyun;Lee, Daekyeom;Chae, Yeonghun;Chang, Dongil
    • Proceedings of the Korean Institute of Information and Commucation Sciences Conference
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    • 2022.05a
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    • pp.15-17
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    • 2022

  • In the aftermath of the avian influenza that occurred from the second half of 2020 to the beginning of 2021, 17.8 million laying hens were slaughtered. Although the government invested more than 100 billion won for egg imports as a measure to stabilize prices, the effort was not that easy. The sharp volatility of egg prices negatively affected both consumers and poultry farmers, so measures were needed to stabilize egg prices. To this end, the egg prices were successfully predicted in this study by using the analysis algorithm of a machine learning regression. For price prediction, a total of 8 independent variables, including monthly broiler chicken production statistics for 2012-2021 of the Korean Poultry Association and the slaughter performance of the national statistics portal (kosis), have been selected to be used. The Root Mean Square Error (RMSE), which indicates the difference between the predicted price and the actual price, is at the level of 103 (won), which can be interpreted as explaining the egg prices relatively well predicted. Accurate prediction of egg prices lead to flexible adjustment of egg production weeks for laying hens, which can help decision-making about stocking of laying hens. This result is expected to help secure egg price stability.

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The Impact of Market Environments on Optimal Channel Strategy Involving an Internet Channel: A Game Theoretic Approach (시장 환경이 인터넷 경로를 포함한 다중 경로 관리에 미치는 영향에 관한 연구: 게임 이론적 접근방법)

  • Yoo, Weon-Sang
    • Journal of Distribution Research
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    • v.16 no.2
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    • pp.119-138
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    • 2011

  • Internet commerce has been growing at a rapid pace for the last decade. Many firms try to reach wider consumer markets by adding the Internet channel to the existing traditional channels. Despite the various benefits of the Internet channel, a significant number of firms failed in managing the new type of channel. Previous studies could not cleary explain these conflicting results associated with the Internet channel. One of the major reasons is most of the previous studies conducted analyses under a specific market condition and claimed that as the impact of Internet channel introduction. Therefore, their results are strongly influenced by the specific market settings. However, firms face various market conditions in the real worlddensity and disutility of using the Internet. The purpose of this study is to investigate the impact of various market environments on a firm's optimal channel strategy by employing a flexible game theory model. We capture various market conditions with consumer density and disutility of using the Internet.

    shows the channel structures analyzed in this study. Before the Internet channel is introduced, a monopoly manufacturer sells its products through an independent physical store. From this structure, the manufacturer could introduce its own Internet channel (MI). The independent physical store could also introduce its own Internet channel and coordinate it with the existing physical store (RI). An independent Internet retailer such as Amazon could enter this market (II). In this case, two types of independent retailers compete with each other. In this model, consumers are uniformly distributed on the two dimensional space. Consumer heterogeneity is captured by a consumer's geographical location (ci) and his disutility of using the Internet channel (${\delta}_{N_i}$).
    shows various market conditions captured by the two consumer heterogeneities.
    (a) illustrates a market with symmetric consumer distributions. The model captures explicitly the asymmetric distributions of consumer disutility in a market as well. In a market like that is represented in
    (c), the average consumer disutility of using an Internet store is relatively smaller than that of using a physical store. For example, this case represents the market in which 1) the product is suitable for Internet transactions (e.g., books) or 2) the level of E-Commerce readiness is high such as in Denmark or Finland. On the other hand, the average consumer disutility when using an Internet store is relatively greater than that of using a physical store in a market like (b). Countries like Ukraine and Bulgaria, or the market for "experience goods" such as shoes, could be examples of this market condition. summarizes the various scenarios of consumer distributions analyzed in this study. The range for disutility of using the Internet (${\delta}_{N_i}$) is held constant, while the range of consumer distribution (${\chi}_i$) varies from -25 to 25, from -50 to 50, from -100 to 100, from -150 to 150, and from -200 to 200.
    summarizes the analysis results. As the average travel cost in a market decreases while the average disutility of Internet use remains the same, average retail price, total quantity sold, physical store profit, monopoly manufacturer profit, and thus, total channel profit increase. On the other hand, the quantity sold through the Internet and the profit of the Internet store decrease with a decreasing average travel cost relative to the average disutility of Internet use. We find that a channel that has an advantage over the other kind of channel serves a larger portion of the market. In a market with a high average travel cost, in which the Internet store has a relative advantage over the physical store, for example, the Internet store becomes a mass-retailer serving a larger portion of the market. This result implies that the Internet becomes a more significant distribution channel in those markets characterized by greater geographical dispersion of buyers, or as consumers become more proficient in Internet usage. The results indicate that the degree of price discrimination also varies depending on the distribution of consumer disutility in a market. The manufacturer in a market in which the average travel cost is higher than the average disutility of using the Internet has a stronger incentive for price discrimination than the manufacturer in a market where the average travel cost is relatively lower. We also find that the manufacturer has a stronger incentive to maintain a high price level when the average travel cost in a market is relatively low. Additionally, the retail competition effect due to Internet channel introduction strengthens as average travel cost in a market decreases. This result indicates that a manufacturer's channel power relative to that of the independent physical retailer becomes stronger with a decreasing average travel cost. This implication is counter-intuitive, because it is widely believed that the negative impact of Internet channel introduction on a competing physical retailer is more significant in a market like Russia, where consumers are more geographically dispersed, than in a market like Hong Kong, that has a condensed geographic distribution of consumers.
    illustrates how this happens. When mangers consider the overall impact of the Internet channel, however, they should consider not only channel power, but also sales volume. When both are considered, the introduction of the Internet channel is revealed as more harmful to a physical retailer in Russia than one in Hong Kong, because the sales volume decrease for a physical store due to Internet channel competition is much greater in Russia than in Hong Kong. The results show that manufacturer is always better off with any type of Internet store introduction. The independent physical store benefits from opening its own Internet store when the average travel cost is higher relative to the disutility of using the Internet. Under an opposite market condition, however, the independent physical retailer could be worse off when it opens its own Internet outlet and coordinates both outlets (RI). This is because the low average travel cost significantly reduces the channel power of the independent physical retailer, further aggravating the already weak channel power caused by myopic inter-channel price coordination. The results implies that channel members and policy makers should explicitly consider the factors determining the relative distributions of both kinds of consumer disutility, when they make a channel decision involving an Internet channel. These factors include the suitability of a product for Internet shopping, the level of E-Commerce readiness of a market, and the degree of geographic dispersion of consumers in a market. Despite the academic contributions and managerial implications, this study is limited in the following ways. First, a series of numerical analyses were conducted to derive equilibrium solutions due to the complex forms of demand functions. In the process, we set up V=100, ${\lambda}$=1, and ${\beta}$=0.01. Future research may change this parameter value set to check the generalizability of this study. Second, the five different scenarios for market conditions were analyzed. Future research could try different sets of parameter ranges. Finally, the model setting allows only one monopoly manufacturer in the market. Accommodating competing multiple manufacturers (brands) would generate more realistic results.

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