• Title/Summary/Keyword: financial time series

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Interdependence of the Asia-Pacific Emerging Equity Markets (아시아-태평양지역 국가들의 상호의존성)

  • Moon, Gyu-Hyun;Hong, Chung-Hyo
    • The Korean Journal of Financial Management
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    • v.20 no.2
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    • pp.151-180
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    • 2003
  • We examine the interdependence of the major Asia-Pacific stock markets including S&P 500, FTSE 100, Kualar Lumpur Composite, Straits Times, Hang Seng, NIKKEI 225 and KOSPI 200 from October 4, 1995 to March 31,2000. The analysis employs the vector-auto-regression, Granger causality, impulse response function and variance decomposition using daily returns on the national stock market indices. The findings in this paper indicate that the volatilities of all countries has grown after IMF crisis, while there is no significance in cointegration test of both total period and sub-periods. This result implies that investors are able to get abnormal returns by investment diversification according to the portfolio theory. We find that while the effect from NIKKEI 225 to others is relatively weak, the interdependence from S&P 500 to other countries is strong. Also we find that the strong effect from Straits Times to Hang Seng exists. This study suggests that there is slight feedback relation between KOSPI 200 and Kualar Lumpur Composite, Straits Times, Hang Seng stock market.

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The Price Discovery ana Volatility Spillover of Won/Dollar Futures (통화선물의 가격예시 기능과 변동성 전이효과)

  • Kim, Seok-Chin;Do, Young-Ho
    • The Korean Journal of Financial Management
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    • v.23 no.1
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    • pp.49-67
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    • 2006
  • This study examines whether won/dollar futures have price discovery function and volatility spillover effect or not, using intraday won/dollar futures prices, volumes, and spot rates for the interval from March 2, 2005 through May 30, 2005. Futures prices and spot rates are non-stationary, but there is the cointegration relationship between two time series. Futures returns, spot returns, and volumes are stationary. Asymmetric effects on volatility in futures returns and spot returns does not exist. Analytical results of mean equations of the BGARCH-EC (bivariate GARCH-error correction) model show that the increase of futures returns raise spot returns after 5 minutes, which implies that futures returns lead spot returns and won/dollar futures have price discovery function. In addition, the long-run equilibrium relationship between the two returns could help forecast spot returns. Analytical results of variance equations indicate that short-run innovations in the futures market positively affect the conditional variances of spot returns, that is, there is the volatility spillover effect in the won/dollar futures market. A dummy variable of volumes does not have an effect on two returns but influences significantly on two conditional variances.

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A Study on the Nonlinear Deterministic Characteristics of Stock Returns (주식 수익률의 비선형 결정론적 특성에 관한 연구)

  • Chang, Kyung-Chun;Kim, Hyun-Seok
    • The Korean Journal of Financial Management
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    • v.21 no.1
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    • pp.149-181
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    • 2004
  • In this study we perform empirical tests using KOSPI return to investigate the existence of nonlinear characteristics in the generating process of stock returns. There are three categories in empirical tests; the test of nonlinear dependence, nonlinear stochastic process and nonlinear deterministic chaos. According to the analysis of nonlinearity, stock returns are not normally distributed but leptokurtic, and appear to have nonlinear dependence. And it's decided that the nonlinear structure of stock returns can not be completely explained using nonlinear stochastic models of ARCH-type. Nonlinear deterministic chaos system is the feedback system, which the past incidents influence the present, and it is the fractal structure with self-similarity and has the sensitive dependence on initial conditions. To summarize the results of chaos analysis for KOSPI return, it is the persistent time series, which is not IID and has long memory, takes biased random walk, and is estimated to be fractal distribution. Also correlation dimension, as the approximation of fractal dimension, converged stably within 3 and 4, and maximum Lyapunov exponent has positive value. This suggests that chaotic attractor and the sensitive dependence on initial conditions exist in stock returns. These results fit into the characteristics of chaos system. Therefore it's decided that the generating process of stock returns has nonlinear deterministic structure and follow chaotic process.

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The Relationships between Founders' Entrepreneurial Leadership, Team Learning Behavior, Team Boundary Spanning, and Perceived Performance in the Early-Stage Startups (초기 스타트업 창업가의 기업가적 리더십, 팀 학습 행동, 팀 경계 확장 행동 및 지각된 성과의 관계)

  • Park, Jungwoo;Kim, Jinmo
    • Korean small business review
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    • v.42 no.1
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    • pp.135-165
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    • 2020
  • This study aimed to examine relationships between founders' entrepreneurial leadership, team learning behavior, team boundary spanning, and perceived performance in early-stage startups. The following results were recorded: (i) the indirect effects of entrepreneurial leadership on perceived performance via team learning behavior were statistically significant (β=.309, p<.05). (ii) relationships between team learning behavior and perceived performance were strengthened by team boundary spanning behavior (β=.259, p<.05). In this study, three practical implications are provided as follows: (i) startups need to seek team learning readiness and external learning stimulus to facilitate generative and transformative team learning; (ii) accelerators need to develop an entrepreneurial leadership program for founders; and (iii) startups need to explore external information by interacting with investors, R&D institutions, and other startups to strengthen the impact of team learning behavior on performance. Furthermore, two directions for future research are suggested as follows: (i) future researchers need to test causal relationships between entrepreneurial leadership and team learning behavior based on a newly designed time-series measurement plan; (ii) the actual effects of entrepreneurial leadership, team learning behavior and team boundary spanning on financial performance need to be tested two or three years later when the financial performance of early-stage startups usually becomes evident.

Relationship Between Income Inequality with Gini Coefficient and Consumption Expenditure: The Case of U.S and U.K (Gini 계수에 의한 소득불평등과 소비지출의 관계 분석 : 미국과 영국을 중심으로)

  • Rhee, Hyun-Jae
    • The Journal of the Korea Contents Association
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    • v.20 no.6
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    • pp.392-405
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    • 2020
  • The aim of this study is to investigate the effects of income inequality on consumption expenditure in other to understand income-led growth policy. This is basically resulted in the income inequality had gotten worse since global financial crisis in many economies. Malthusian hypothesis which signifies the relationship between the income inequality and the consumption expenditure revisited for this purpose. The paper utilizes multiple break points regression and TGARCH model, and these methodologies are tentatively applied to the case of U.S and U.K. This is because that long-run time series data enables to formulate a stylized fact in general. Empirical evidence suggests that there does not exist a solid relationship among APC, income inequality by Gini coefficient, and consumption expenditure before the year of 2000, but Malthusian hypothesis is supported by weak basis in U.S while strong basis in U.K after since then. It implies that the income inequality has to be alleviated to maximize its effectiveness of the income-led growth policy.

The impact of liquidity constraints on investment expenditures: Evidences from family and non-family firms (유동성 제약이 투자지출에 미치는 영향: 가족기업과 비가족기업의 실증 비교)

  • Kim, Choong-Hwan
    • Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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    • v.14 no.2
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    • pp.674-680
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    • 2013
  • This paper investigates the impact of liquidity constraints on investment expenditures of family and non-family firms. We analyze the ownership structure of family firms to determine whether family control alleviates or exacerbates investment-cash flow sensitivity in domestic firms. To examine the impact of liquidity constraints on investment expenditures of family and non-family firms, we used a financial data of 644 Korea Exchange traded companies over the 2000 - 2010 period. We estimated a time-series and cross-sectional regression model, using samples of family firms and non-family firms. The results show that cash flow is not associated with investment expenditure in family firms, whereas cash flow has a positive impact on investment in non-family firms. Our results show that lower or no investment-cash flow sensitivities in family-controlled firms are mainly attributable to lower agency costs through strong monitoring activities of family members. Higher investment-cash flow sensitivities are observed in non-family firms with more agency problems. This suggests that investment-cash flow sensitivities would be useful measures of liquidity constraints.

Effects of Air Pollution on Public and Private Health Expenditures in Iran: A Time Series Study (1972-2014)

  • Raeissi, Pouran;Harati-Khalilabad, Touraj;Rezapour, Aziz;Hashemi, Seyed Yaser;Mousavi, Abdoreza;Khodabakhshzadeh, Saeed
    • Journal of Preventive Medicine and Public Health
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    • v.51 no.3
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    • pp.140-147
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    • 2018
  • Objectives: Environmental pollution is a negative consequence of the development process, and many countries are grappling with this phenomenon. As a developing country, Iran is not exempt from this rule, and Iran pays huge expenditures for the consequences of pollution. The aim of this study was to analyze the long- and short-run impact of air pollution, along with other health indicators, on private and public health expenditures. Methods: This study was an applied and developmental study. Autoregressive distributed lag estimating models were used for the period of 1972 to 2014. In order to determine the co-integration between health expenditures and the infant mortality rate, fertility rate, per capita income, and pollution, we used the Wald test in Microfit version 4.1. We then used Eviews version 8 to evaluate the stationarity of the variables and to estimate the long- and short-run relationships. Results: Long-run air pollution had a positive and significant effect on health expenditures, so that a 1.00% increase in the index of carbon dioxide led to an increase of 3.32% and 1.16% in public and private health expenditures, respectively. Air pollution also had a greater impact on health expenditures in the long term than in the short term. Conclusions: The findings of this study indicate that among the factors affecting health expenditures, environmental quality and contaminants played the most important role. Therefore, in order to reduce the financial burden of health expenditures in Iran, it is essential to reduce air pollution by enacting and implementing laws that protect the environment.

Measuring Return and Volatility Spillovers across Major Virtual Currency Market (주요 가상화폐 시장간 수익률 및 변동성 전이효과에 관한 연구)

  • Yoo, Ju-Hyun;Kang, Ju-Young;Park, Sang-Un
    • The Journal of Information Systems
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    • v.27 no.3
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    • pp.43-62
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    • 2018
  • Purpose Since the Bitcoin, which was the first virtual currency, was made at 2009, almost 1,000 virtual currencies appeared onstage in the world. Even though virtual currencies have the function of money as a medium of exchange or contract, any of those has not yet entered the commercialization stage. Instead, some of the virtual currencies show the nature of investment assets. In the case of virtual money investment, users tend to use all the information of the world because information transfer is very easy and capital movement is almost free between different countries. In addition, as the transaction sizes of virtual currencies increase, a virtual currency price is no longer independent and is likely to be affected by the prices of other virtual currencies. Therefore, it is necessary to understand the influence among virtual currency markets, which helps successful implementation of investment strategies. Design/methodology/approach This study focuses on the investment product function of virtual money and conducts the analysis using the time series model used in the financial and economic areas. In this paper, we try to analyze the return and volatility transfer effect of virtual money markets through GJR-GARCH model. Findings This study is expected to find out whether we can make market forecasts through reflecting changes in other markets. In addition, we can reduce the trial and error of user decision making by using the information on the yield and volatility transition effect derived from the research results, and it is expected to reduce the opportunity cost of users.

A Numerical Study on CUSUM Test for Volatility Shifts Against Long-Range Dependence (변동성 변화와 장기억성을 구분하는 CUSUM 검정통계량에 대한 실증분석)

  • Lee, Youngsun;Lee, Taewook
    • The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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    • v.27 no.2
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    • pp.291-305
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    • 2014
  • Persistence is one of the typical characteristics appearing in the volatility of financial time series. According to the recent researches, the volatility persistence may be due to either volatility shifts or long-range dependence. In this paper, we consider residual-based CUSUM tests to distinguish volatility persistence, long-range dependence and volatility shifts in GARCH models. It is observed that this test procedure achieve reasonable powers without a size distortion. Moreover, we employ AIC and BIC criteria to estimate the change points and the number of change points in volatility. We demonstrate the superiority of residual-based CUSUM tests on various Monte Carlo simulations and empirical data analysis.

A Study on the Fishing Method of the Midwater Trawl -On the meneuveravilities of the fishing boat under operation- (중층 트롤의 어법에 관한 연구)

  • 김민석
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Fisheries and Ocean Technology
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    • v.29 no.4
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    • pp.260-271
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    • 1993
  • Due to depletion of fish resources as time goes on, the trawl fishing industries which have caught the demersal fish is confronting with financial difficulties. For the purpose of breaking these difficulties, trawlers are expanding the fishing targets to the midwater from bottom stock. The trawlers become to be able to detect the fish schools not only vertical but also horizontal direction by equipping the sonar system on board. Even though the operator locates the fish school by sonar, it is not easy to make a desirable catch of the fish school which is detected, for the reason of the maneuverring characteristics of trawler. For the purpose of enhancing the efficiency of a fish catch, the auther performed a series of on board experiments to investigate the maneuverablilites of midwater trawaler. The obtained results are summerized as follows: 1. The higher the RPM of main engine, the smaller the magnitude of turning circle. And it is smaller in the right than in the left turning 2. Towing speed varies irregularly under turning novenment. When the RPM of main engine being 560, 680 the angular velocities are 11.3deg/min, 22.5deg/min respectively. 3. The difference of new course distance between calculated by maneuverring indices and measured by experimental ship is high when altering course being large and towing speed low. 4. The faster the towing speed is, the shorter the new course distance becomes. When towing speed is same in right and left turning movement, the now course distance is shorter in case of right turning movement than in left. 5. It is considered to be convenient for a navigator to utilize the curves for altering course in order to steer the ship rapidly and accurately.

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