• Title/Summary/Keyword: fault prediction

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PREDICTION OF FAULT TREND IN A LNG PLANT USING WAVELET TRANSFORM AND ARIMA MODEL

  • Yeonjong Ju;Changyoon Kim;Hyoungkwan Kim
    • International conference on construction engineering and project management
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    • 2009.05a
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    • pp.388-392
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    • 2009
  • Operation of LNG (Liquefied Natural Gas) plants requires an effective maintenance strategy. To this end, the long-term and short-term trend of faults, such as mechanical and electrical troubles, should be identified so as to take proactive approach for ensuring the smooth and productive operation. However, it is not an easy task to predict the fault trend in LNG plants. Many variables and unexpected conditions make it quite difficult for the facility manager to be well prepared for future faulty conditions. This paper presents a model to predict the fault trend in a LNG plant. ARIMA (Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average) model is combined with Wavelet Transform to enhance the prediction capability of the proposed model. Test results show the potential of the proposed model for the preventive maintenance strategy.

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Severity-based Fault Prediction using Unsupervised Learning (비감독형 학습 기법을 사용한 심각도 기반 결함 예측)

  • Hong, Euyseok
    • The Journal of the Institute of Internet, Broadcasting and Communication
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    • v.18 no.3
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    • pp.151-157
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    • 2018
  • Most previous studies of software fault prediction have focused on supervised learning models for binary classification that determines whether an input module has faults or not. However, binary classification model determines only the presence or absence of faults in the module without considering the complex characteristics of the fault, and supervised model has the limitation that it requires a training data set that most development groups do not have. To solve these two problems, this paper proposes severity-based ternary classification model using unsupervised learning algorithms, and experimental results show that the proposed model has comparable performance to the supervised models.

Prediction of Spectral Acceleration Response Based on the Statistical Analyses of Earthquake Records in Korea (국내 지진기록의 통계적 분석에 기반한 스펙트럴 가속도 응답 예측기법)

  • Shin, Dong-Hyeon;Hong, Suk-Jae;Kim, Hyung-Joon
    • Journal of the Earthquake Engineering Society of Korea
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    • v.20 no.1
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    • pp.45-54
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    • 2016
  • This study suggests a prediction model of ground motion spectral shape considering characteristics of earthquake records in Korea. Based on the Graizer and Kalkan's prediction procedure, a spectral shape model is defined as a continuous function of period in order to improve the complex problems of the conventional models. The approximate spectral shape function is then developed with parameters such as moment magnitude, fault distance, and average shear velocity of independent variables. This paper finally determines estimator coefficients of subfunctions which explain the corelation among the independent variables using the nonlinear optimization. As a result of generating the prediction model of ground motion spectral shape, the ground motion spectral shape well estimates the response spectrum of earthquake recordings in Korea.

The Development of Diesel Engine Room Fault Diagnosis System Using a Correlation Analysis Method (상관분석법에 의한 선박기관실 고장진단 시스템 개발)

  • Kim, Young-Il;Oh, Hyun-Kyung;Yu, Yung-Ho
    • Journal of Advanced Marine Engineering and Technology
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    • v.30 no.2
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    • pp.253-259
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    • 2006
  • There is few study which automatically diagnoses the fault from ship's monitored data. The bigger control and monitoring system is. the more important fault diagnosis and maintenance is to reduce damage caused by system fault. This paper proposes fault diagnosis system using a correlation analysis algorithm which is able to diagnose and forecast the fault from monitored data and is composed of fault detection knowledge base and fault diagnosis knowledge base. For all kinds of ship's engine room monitored data are classified with combustion subsystem, heat exchange subsystem and electric motor and pump subsystem, To verify capability of fault detection, diagnosis and prediction, FMS(Fault Management System) is developed by C++. Simulation by FMS is carried out with population data set made by the log book data of 2 months duration from a large full container ship of H shipping company.

The Development of Diesel Engine Room Fault Diagnosis SystemUsing a Correlation Analysis Method (상관분석법에 의한 선박기관실 고장진단 시스템 개발)

  • Kim, Young-Il;Oh, Hyun-Gyeong;Cheon, Hang-Chun;Yu, Yung-Ho
    • Proceedings of the Korean Society of Marine Engineers Conference
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    • 2005.06a
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    • pp.251-256
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    • 2005
  • There is few study which automatically diagnose the fault from ship's monitored signal. The bigger control and monitoring system is, the more important fault diagnosis and maintenance is to reduce damage brought forth by system fault. This paper proposes fault diagnosis system using a correlation analysis algorithm which is able to diagnose and forecast the fault and is composed to fault detection knowledge base and fault diagnosis knowledge base. For this all kinds of ship's engine room monitored data are classified with combustion subsystem, heat exchange subsystem and electric motor and pump subsystem by analyzing ship's operation data. To verifying capability of fault detection, diagnosis and prediction, Fault Management System(FMS) is developed by C++. Simulation experiment by FMS is carried out with population data set made by log book data of 2 months duration from a large full container ship of H shipping company.

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Software Fault Prediction using Semi-supervised Learning Methods (세미감독형 학습 기법을 사용한 소프트웨어 결함 예측)

  • Hong, Euyseok
    • The Journal of the Institute of Internet, Broadcasting and Communication
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    • v.19 no.3
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    • pp.127-133
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    • 2019
  • Most studies of software fault prediction have been about supervised learning models that use only labeled training data. Although supervised learning usually shows high prediction performance, most development groups do not have sufficient labeled data. Unsupervised learning models that use only unlabeled data for training are difficult to build and show poor performance. Semi-supervised learning models that use both labeled data and unlabeled data can solve these problems. Self-training technique requires the fewest assumptions and constraints among semi-supervised techniques. In this paper, we implemented several models using self-training algorithms and evaluated them using Accuracy and AUC. As a result, YATSI showed the best performance.

Prediction of fault zone ahead of tunnel face using x-Rs control chart analysis for crown settlement (천단변위의 x-Rs 관리도 분석을 이용한 터널 막장 전방 단층대 예측)

  • Yun, Hyun-Seok;Seo, Yong-Seok;Kim, Kwang-Yeom
    • Journal of Korean Tunnelling and Underground Space Association
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    • v.16 no.4
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    • pp.361-372
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    • 2014
  • A measurement of tunnel displacement plays an important role for stability analysis and prediction of possible fault zone ahead of tunnel face. In this study, we evaluated characteristics of tunnel behaviour due to the existence and orientation of fault zone based on 3-dimensional finite element numerical analysis. The crown settlement representing tunnel behaviour is acquired at 5 m away from tunnel face in combination with x-Rs control chart analysis based on statistics for trend line and L/C (longitudinal/crown displacement) ratio in order to propose risk management method for fault zone. As a result, x-Rs control chart analysis can enable to predict fault zone in terms of existence and orientation in tunnelling.

Classification of High Impedance Fault Patterns by Recognition of Linear Prediction coefficients (선형 예측 계수의 인식에 의한 고저항 지락사고 유형의 분류)

  • Lee, Ho-Seob;Kong, Seong-Gon
    • Proceedings of the KIEE Conference
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    • 1996.07b
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    • pp.1353-1355
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    • 1996
  • This paper presents classification of high impedance fault pattern using linear prediction coefficients. A feature of neutral phase current is extracted by the linear predictive coding. This feature is classified into faults by a multilayer perceptron neural network. Neural network successfully classifies test data into three faults and one normal state.

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RELTSYS: A computer program for life prediction of deteriorating systems

  • Enright, Michael P.;Frangopol, Dan M.
    • Structural Engineering and Mechanics
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    • v.9 no.6
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    • pp.557-568
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    • 2000
  • As time-variant reliability approaches become increasingly used for service life prediction of the aging infrastructure, the demand for computer solution methods continues to increase. Effcient computer techniques have become well established for the reliability analysis of structural systems. Thus far, however, this is largely limited to time-invariant reliability problems. Therefore, the requirements for time-variant reliability prediction of deteriorating structural systems under time-variant loads have remained incomplete. This study presents a computer program for $\underline{REL}$iability of $\underline{T}$ime-Variant $\underline{SYS}$tems, RELTSYS. This program uses a combined technique of adaptive importance sampling, numerical integration, and fault tree analysis to compute time-variant reliabilities of individual components and systems. Time-invariant quantities are generated using Monte Carlo simulation, whereas time-variant quantities are evaluated using numerical integration. Load distribution and post-failure redistribution are considered using fault tree analysis. The strengths and limitations of RELTSYS are presented via a numerical example.