• Title/Summary/Keyword: failure time data

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A Study on the Estimation of Shelf Life for Fuze MTSQ KM577A1 from ASRP Data (저장탄약신뢰성평가 데이터를 이용한 기계식시한신관 KM577A1 저장수명 추정 연구)

  • Lee, Dongnyok;Yoon, Keunsig
    • Journal of Applied Reliability
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    • v.18 no.1
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    • pp.56-65
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    • 2018
  • Purpose: The purpose of this study is to estimate shelf life of fuze MTSQ (Mechanical Time & Super Quick) KM577A1 from Ammunition Stockpile Reliability Program (ASRP) data. Methods: For many years, ammunition test data had been gathered from ASRP. In this study, lot selection criteria and reliability score of functioning time for fuze are proposed. Reliability score of functioning time and failure data are used to estimate shelf life. Results: The results of this study are as follows; The failure modes of fuze MTSQ KM577A1 are dud, inverse function and mechanical time functioning failure (not operating in intended time). Dud and inverse function are major failure modes. Fuze MTSQ KM577A1's shelf life ($B_5$) is estimated 18.2 years conservatively. Conclusion: Degradation of chemical components in fuze MTSQ KM577A1 is major factor for its reliability. And shelf life ($B_5$) of fuze MTSQ KM577A1 is estimated 18.2 years conservatively.

Estimation of a Bivariate Exponential Distribution with a Location Parameter

  • Hong, Yeon-Ung;Gwon, Yong-Man
    • Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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    • v.13 no.2
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    • pp.243-250
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    • 2002
  • This paper considers the problem of estimating parameters of the bivariate exponential distribution with a location parameter for a two-component shared parallel system using component data from system-level life test terminated at the time of the prespecified number of system failure. In the system-level life testing, there are three patterns of failure types ; 1) both component failed 2) both component censored 3) one is failed and the other is censored. In the third case, we assume that the failure time might be known or unknown. The maximum likelihood estimators are obtained for the case of known/unknown failure time when the other component is censored.

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A Study on the Prediction of Failure Rate of Airforce OO Guided Missile Based on Field Failure Data (야전운용제원에 기반한 공군 OO유도탄 고장률 예측에 관한 연구)

  • Park, Cheonkyu;Ma, Jungmok
    • Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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    • v.21 no.7
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    • pp.428-434
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    • 2020
  • The one-shot weapon system is destroyed after only one mission. So, the system requires high reliability. Guided missiles are one-shot weapon systems that have to be analyzed by storage reliability since they spend most of their life in storage. The analysis results depend on the model and the ratio of correct censored data. This study was conducted to propose a method to more accurately predict the future failure rate of Air force guided missiles. In the proposed method, the failure rate is predicted by both MTTF (Mean Time To Failure) and MTBF (Mean Time Between Failure) models and the model with a smaller error from the real failure rate is selected. Next, with the selected model, the ratio of correct censored data is selected to minimize the error between the predicted failure rate and the real failure rate. Based on real field data, the comparative result is determined and the result shows that the proposed sampling rate can predict the future failure rate more accurately.

HRSF: Single Disk Failure Recovery for Liberation Code Based Storage Systems

  • Li, Jun;Hou, Mengshu
    • Journal of Information Processing Systems
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    • v.15 no.1
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    • pp.55-66
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    • 2019
  • Storage system often applies erasure codes to protect against disk failure and ensure system reliability and availability. Liberation code that is a type of coding scheme has been widely used in many storage systems because its encoding and modifying operations are efficient. However, it cannot effectively achieve fast recovery from single disk failure in storage systems, and has great influence on recovery performance as well as response time of client requests. To solve this problem, in this paper, we present HRSF, a Hybrid Recovery method for solving Single disk Failure. We present the optimal algorithm to accelerate failure recovery process. Theoretical analysis proves that our scheme consumes approximately 25% less amount of data read than the conventional method. In the evaluation, we perform extensive experiments by setting different number of disks and chunk sizes. The results show that HRSF outperforms conventional method in terms of the amount of data read and failure recovery time.

A Discrete Time Approximation Method using Bayesian Inference of Parameters of Weibull Distribution and Acceleration Parameters with Time-Varying Stresses (시변환 스트레스 조건에서의 와이블 분포의 모수 및 가속 모수에 대한 베이시안 추정을 사용하는 이산 시간 접근 방법)

  • Chung, In-Seung
    • Proceedings of the KSME Conference
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    • 2008.11a
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    • pp.1331-1336
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    • 2008
  • This paper suggests a method using Bayesian inference to estimate the parameters of Weibull distribution and acceleration parameters under the condition that the stresses are time-dependent functions. A Bayesian model based on the discrete time approximation is formulated to infer the parameters of interest from the failure data of the virtual tests and a statistical analysis is considered to decide the most probable mean values of the parameters for reasoning of the failure data.

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Failure Time Prediction by Nonlinear Least Square Method with Deformation Data (계측 자료의 비선형최소자승법을 이용한 파괴시간 예측)

  • Yoon, Yong-Kyun;Kim, Byoung-Chul;Jo, Young-Do
    • Tunnel and Underground Space
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    • v.19 no.6
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    • pp.558-566
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    • 2009
  • Time-dependent behavior is a basic mechanical property of rocks. Predicting the failure time of rock structures by analyzing the time-dependent characteristic is important and problematic. It is tried to predict the failure time of tunnel, slope & laboratory creep test specimen from measured displacement(or strain) and rate with relationship suggested by Voight($\ddot{\Omega}=A\dot{\Omega}^\alpha$, where $\Omega$ is a measurable quantity such as strain & displacement and A & $\alpha$ are constants). A & $\alpha$ are estimated through applying the nonlinear least square method to the single and double integrated Voight's equations and utilized to predict the failure time. Predicted failure time is in accordance with real one except minor error. Linear inverse rate method applied to creep strain and rate yields a poor linear correlation of data and precision of predicted failure time is not better than methods using strain and rate.

Analysis of Marginal Count Failure Data by using Covariates

  • Karim, Md.Rezaul;Suzuki, Kazuyuki
    • International Journal of Reliability and Applications
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    • v.4 no.2
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    • pp.79-95
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    • 2003
  • Manufacturers collect and analyze field reliability data to enhance the quality and reliability of their products and to improve customer satisfaction. To reduce the data collecting and maintenance costs, the amount of data maintained for evaluating product quality and reliability should be minimized. With this in mind, some industrial companies assemble warranty databases by gathering data from different sources for a particular time period. This “marginal count failure data” does not provide (i) the number of failures by when the product entered service, (ii) the number of failures by product age, or (iii) information about the effects of the operating season or environment. This article describes a method for estimating age-based claim rates from marginal count failure data. It uses covariates to identify variations in claims relative to variables such as manufacturing characteristics, time of manufacture, operating season or environment. A Poisson model is presented, and the method is illustrated using warranty claims data for two electrical products.

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Parameter Estimation and Prediction for NHPP Software Reliability Model and Time Series Regression in Software Failure Data

  • Song, Kwang-Yoon;Chang, In-Hong
    • Journal of Integrative Natural Science
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    • v.7 no.1
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    • pp.67-73
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    • 2014
  • We consider the mean value function for NHPP software reliability model and time series regression model in software failure data. We estimate parameters for the proposed models from two data sets. The values of SSE and MSE is presented from two data sets. We compare the predicted number of faults with the actual two data sets using the mean value function and regression curve.

The Study of Failure Mode Data Development and Feature Parameter's Reliability Verification Using LSTM Algorithm for 2-Stroke Low Speed Engine for Ship's Propulsion (선박 추진용 2행정 저속엔진의 고장모드 데이터 개발 및 LSTM 알고리즘을 활용한 특성인자 신뢰성 검증연구)

  • Jae-Cheul Park;Hyuk-Chan Kwon;Chul-Hwan Kim;Hwa-Sup Jang
    • Journal of the Society of Naval Architects of Korea
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    • v.60 no.2
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    • pp.95-109
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    • 2023
  • In the 4th industrial revolution, changes in the technological paradigm have had a direct impact on the maintenance system of ships. The 2-stroke low speed engine system integrates with the core equipment required for propulsive power. The Condition Based Management (CBM) is defined as a technology that predictive maintenance methods in existing calender-based or running time based maintenance systems by monitoring the condition of machinery and diagnosis/prognosis failures. In this study, we have established a framework for CBM technology development on our own, and are engaged in engineering-based failure analysis, data development and management, data feature analysis and pre-processing, and verified the reliability of failure mode DB using LSTM algorithms. We developed various simulated failure mode scenarios for 2-stroke low speed engine and researched to produce data on onshore basis test_beds. The analysis and pre-processing of normal and abnormal status data acquired through failure mode simulation experiment used various Exploratory Data Analysis (EDA) techniques to feature extract not only data on the performance and efficiency of 2-stroke low speed engine but also key feature data using multivariate statistical analysis. In addition, by developing an LSTM classification algorithm, we tried to verify the reliability of various failure mode data with time-series characteristics.

The Study for Comparative Analysis of Software Failure Time Using EWMA Control Chart (지수 가중 이동 평균 관리도를 이용한 소프트웨어 고장 시간 비교분석에 관한 연구)

  • Kim, Hee-Cheul;Shin, Hyun-Cheul
    • Convergence Security Journal
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    • v.8 no.3
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    • pp.33-39
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    • 2008
  • Software failure time presented in the literature exhibit either constant, monotonic increasing or monotonic decreasing. For data analysis of software reliability model, data scale tools of trend analysis are developed. The methods of trend analysis are arithmetic mean test and Laplace trend test. Trend analysis only offer information of outline content. In this paper, we discuss exponentially weighted moving average chart, in measuring failure time. In control, exponentially weighted moving average chart's uses are efficiency case of analysis with knowing information, Using real software failure time, we are proposed to use exponentially weighted moving average chart and comparative analysis of software failure time.

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