• Journal of Astronomy and Space Sciences
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• 제31권2호
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• pp.149-157
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• 2014

As the prediction of geomagnetic storms is becoming an important and practical problem, conditions in the Earth's magnetosphere have been studied rigorously in terms of those in the interplanetary space. Another approach to space weather forecast is to deal with it as a probabilistic geomagnetic storm forecasting problem. In this study, we carry out detailed statistical analysis of solar wind parameters and geomagnetic indices examining the dependence of the distribution on the solar cycle and annual variations. Our main findings are as follows: (1) The distribution of parameters obtained via the superimposed epoch method follows the Gaussian distribution. (2) When solar activity is at its maximum the mean value of the distribution is shifted to the direction indicating the intense environment. Furthermore, the width of the distribution becomes wider at its maximum than at its minimum so that more extreme case can be expected. (3) The distribution of some certain heliospheric parameters is less sensitive to the phase of the solar cycle and annual variations. (4) The distribution of the eastward component of the interplanetary electric field BV and the solar wind driving function BV2, however, appears to be all dependent on the solar maximum/minimum, the descending/ascending phases of the solar cycle and the equinoxes/solstices. (5) The distribution of the AE index and the Dst index shares statistical features closely with BV and $BV^2$ compared with other heliospheric parameters. In this sense, BV and $BV^2$ are more robust proxies of the geomagnetic storm. We conclude by pointing out that our results allow us to step forward in providing the occurrence probability of geomagnetic storms for space weather and physical modeling.

• 농촌지도와개발
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• 제24권4호
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• pp.249-264
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• 2017

Modeling the consumer demand of fresh meat requires its distinct feature which other types of food product does not have. Most of the fresh meat products are likely to be unbranded, bought on a weight basis and affected by macro shocks such as seasonality, holiday effect and the disease incidence. Furthermore, consumers tend to purchase multiple categories of fresh meat in a week. Therefore, we apply a multiple discrete/continuous model on fresh meat consumption data to study the effect of macro shocks on fresh meat sales as well as of price change. As a result shows, Each fresh meat is relatively more likely to be bought in peak season of each fresh meat compared with imported pork which is set as a 'reference category' in this analysis. For clarity of the effect of disease incidence, we perform further analysis regarding the effect of livestock disease on fresh meat purchase probability. It shows that the avian flu in 2014 has strong negative impact on the purchase probability of chicken and the foot-and-mouth disease has negative impact on the purchase probability of pork and beef for part of outbreak periods.

• 스마트미디어저널
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• 제3권1호
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• pp.9-15
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• 2014

오늘날 온라인 소셜 네트워크 서비스가 대중화 되면서, 메시지 전송 연구에 있어 소셜 네트워크에 대한 역할을 이해하는 것은 중요한 문제가 되었다. 기존의 온라인 소셜 네트워크상의 메시지 전송에 대한 연구들은 주로 메시지의 확산 범위와 이를 최대화할 수 있는 방법에 대해 다루었다. 하지만 기존의 연구들에서는 구별된 전송 특성을 가지는 다양한 채널들과 서로 다른 채널선호도 및 재전송 특성을 가지는 소셜 네트워크 사용자의 분포가 메시지 전송에 미치는 영향에 대해서는 많이 고려하지 못했다. 이 논문에서는 이러한 다중-형태 다중 -채널을 가지는 소셜 네트워크상의 메시지 전송 프로세스를 모델링하기 위해 Delay Weighted Independent Cascade 모델을 제안한다. 이 모델에서는 소셜 네트워크상의 다양한 채널들(온라인 소셜 네트워크, 이메일, SMS, 전화, 구두전달)을 고려하고 각 채널들은 서로 다른 메시지 전송 시간을 가질 수 있음을 고려하였다. 그리고, 소셜 네트워크의 각 사용자의 특성을 고려하기 위해 사용자 타입에 따라 메시지 재전송 확률 및 채널 선호도를 서로 다르게 설정하였다. 또한, 사용자의 지역 분포를 고려함으로써 다양한 상황에서의 메시지 전송 특성을 분석할 수 있도록 하였다. 제안된 모델을 기반으로 작성된 시뮬레이터를 통해, 다양한 상황의 소셜 네트워크 메시지 전송에 대해 분석하였다.

• Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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• 제15권5호
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• pp.697-708
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• 2008

본 논문은 금융기관에서 활용하고 있는 운영리스크 측정모형에 대한 적합성검증 방법 중 안정성 검증에 관한 것이다. 신용리스크와는 달리 운영리스크는 손실자료의 특징, 과거 자료의 부족 그리고 적합성검증을 위한 이론적 도구의 부족 등으로 인해 현재 적절한 적합성검증 방안에 제시되지 못하고 있다. 본 논문에서는 운영리스크 VaR(Value at Risk) 추정값의 안정성을 평가하는 적합성검증 방법을 제시하고 이를 활용한 실증분석을 통해 제안된 방법에 대한 실제적 활용 가능성을 확인해 보고자 한다. 구체적으로 본 논문에서는 붓스트랩 방법을 활용하여 운영리스크 VaR의 신뢰구간을 생성함으로써 운영리스크 VaR 추정값의 안정성을 검증하는 기법을 제안하였으며, 이를 토대로 적합에 따른 운영리스크 VaR 추정값의 안정성을 측정하는 방안도 제시하였다.

• 한국농공학회논문집
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• 제62권6호
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• pp.85-95
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• 2020

According to the standard guidelines of design flood (MLTM, 2012; MOE, 2019), the design flood is calculated based on past precipitation. However, due to climate change, the frequency of extreme rainfall events is increasing. Therefore, it is necessary to analyze future floods' volume by using climate change scenarios. Meanwhile, the standard guideline was revised by MOE (Ministry of Environment) recently. MOE proposed modified Huff distribution and new CN (Curve Number) value of forest and paddy. The objective of this study was to analyze the change of flood volume by applying the modified Huff and newly proposed CN to the probabilistic precipitation based on SSP and RCP scenarios. The probabilistic rainfall under climate change was calculated through RCP 4.5/8.5 scenarios and SSP 245/585 scenarios. HEC-HMS (Hydrologic Engineering Center - Hydrologic Modeling System) was simulated for evaluating the flood volume. When RCP 4.5/8.5 scenario was changed to SSP 245/585 scenario, the average flood volume increased by 627 ㎥/s (15%) and 523 ㎥/s (13%), respectively. By the modified Huff distribution, the flood volume increased by 139 ㎥/s (3.76%) on a 200-yr frequency and 171 ㎥/s (4.05%) on a 500-yr frequency. The newly proposed CN made the future flood value increase by 9.5 ㎥/s (0.30%) on a 200-yr frequency and 8.5 ㎥/s (0.25%) on a 500-yr frequency. The selection of climate change scenario was the biggest factor that made the flood volume to transform. Also, the impact of change in Huff was larger than that of CN about 13-16 times.