• 제목/요약/키워드: extreme rainfall

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Impacts assessment of Climate change on hydrologic cycle changes in North Korea based on RCP climate change scenarios I. Development of Long-Term Runoff Model Parameter Estimation for Ungauged Basins (RCP 기후변화시나리오를 이용한 미래 북한지역의 수문순환 변화 영향 평가 I. 미계측유역의 장기유출모형 매개변수 추정식 개발)

  • Jeung, Se Jin;Kang, Dong Ho;Kim, Byung Sik
    • Journal of Wetlands Research
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    • v.21 no.spc
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    • pp.28-38
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    • 2019
  • Climate change on the Korean peninsula is progressing faster than the global average. For example, typhoons, extreme rainfall, heavy snow, cold, and heatwave that are occurring frequently. North Korea is particularly vulnerable to climate change-related natural disasters such as flooding and flooding due to long-term food shortages, energy shortages, and reckless deforestation and development. In addition, North Korea is classified as an unmeasured area due to political and social influences, making it difficult to obtain sufficient hydrologic data for hydrological analysis. Also, as interest in climate change has increased, studies on climate change have been actively conducted on the Korean Peninsula in various repair facilities and disaster countermeasures, but there are no cases of research on North Korea. Therefore, this study selects watershed characteristic variables that are easy to acquire in order to apply localization model to North Korea where it is difficult to obtain observed hydrologic data and estimates parameters based on meteorological and topographical characteristics of 16 dam basins in South Korea. Was calculated. In addition, as a result of reviewing the applicability of the parameter estimation equations calculated for the fifty thousand, Gangneungnamdaecheon, Namgang dam, and Yeonggang basins, the applicability of the parameter estimation equations to North Korea was very high.

Linkage of Hydrological Model and Machine Learning for Real-time Prediction of River Flood (수문모형과 기계학습을 연계한 실시간 하천홍수 예측)

  • Lee, Jae Yeong;Kim, Hyun Il;Han, Kun Yeun
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.40 no.3
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    • pp.303-314
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    • 2020
  • The hydrological characteristics of watersheds and hydraulic systems of urban and river floods are highly nonlinear and contain uncertain variables. Therefore, the predicted time series of rainfall-runoff data in flood analysis is not suitable for existing neural networks. To overcome the challenge of prediction, a NARX (Nonlinear Autoregressive Exogenous Model), which is a kind of recurrent dynamic neural network that maximizes the learning ability of a neural network, was applied to forecast a flood in real-time. At the same time, NARX has the characteristics of a time-delay neural network. In this study, a hydrological model was constructed for the Taehwa river basin, and the NARX time-delay parameter was adjusted 10 to 120 minutes. As a result, we found that precise prediction is possible as the time-delay parameter was increased by confirming that the NSE increased from 0.530 to 0.988 and the RMSE decreased from 379.9 ㎥/s to 16.1 ㎥/s. The machine learning technique with NARX will contribute to the accurate prediction of flow rate with an unexpected extreme flood condition.

Rainfed Areas and Animal Agriculture in Asia: The Wanting Agenda for Transforming Productivity Growth and Rural Poverty

  • Devendra, C.
    • Asian-Australasian Journal of Animal Sciences
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    • v.25 no.1
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    • pp.122-142
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    • 2012
  • The importance of rainfed areas and animal agriculture on productivity enhancement and food security for economic rural growth in Asia is discussed in the context of opportunities for increasing potential contribution from them. The extent of the rainfed area of about 223 million hectares and the biophysical attributes are described. They have been variously referred to inter alia as fragile, marginal, dry, waste, problem, threatened, range, less favoured, low potential lands, forests and woodlands, including lowlands and uplands. Of these, the terms less favoured areas (LFAs), and low or high potential are quite widely used. The LFAs are characterised by four key features: i) very variable biophysical elements, notably poor soil quality, rainfall, length of growing season and dry periods, ii) extreme poverty and very poor people who continuously face hunger and vulnerability, iii) presence of large populations of ruminant animals (buffaloes, cattle, goats and sheep), and iv) have had minimum development attention and an unfinished wanting agenda. The rainfed humid/sub-humid areas found mainly in South East Asia (99 million ha), and arid/semi-arid tropical systems found in South Asia (116 million ha) are priority agro-ecological zones (AEZs). In India for example, the ecosystem occupies 68% of the total cultivated area and supports 40% of the human and 65% of the livestock populations. The area also produces 4% of food requirements. The biophysical and typical household characteristics, agricultural diversification, patterns of mixed farming and cropping systems are also described. Concerning animals, their role and economic importance, relevance of ownership, nomadic movements, and more importantly their potential value as the entry point for the development of LFAs is discussed. Two examples of demonstrated success concern increasing buffalo production for milk and their expanded use in semi-arid AEZs in India, and the integration of cattle and goats with oil palm in Malaysia. Revitalised development of the LFAs is justified by the demand for agricultural land to meet human needs e.g. housing, recreation and industrialisation; use of arable land to expand crop production to ceiling levels; increasing and very high animal densities; increased urbanisation and pressure on the use of available land; growing environmental concerns of very intensive crop production e.g. acidification and salinisation with rice cultivation; and human health risks due to expanding peri-urban poultry and pig production. The strategies for promoting productivity growth will require concerted R and D on improved use of LFAs, application of systems perspectives for technology delivery, increased investments, a policy framework and improved farmer-researcher-extension linkages. These challenges and their resolution in rainfed areas can forcefully impact on increased productivity, improved livelihoods and human welfare, and environmental sustainability in the future.

Friction loss of multi-purpose stormwater tunnel simulated by Flow 3D (Flow 3D를 이용한 다목적 수로 터널의 마찰 손실 산정)

  • Lee, Du Han;Kim, Jung Hwan;Chung, Gunhui
    • Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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    • v.18 no.3
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    • pp.14-21
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    • 2017
  • The extreme floods recently are have been attributed global warming, The development of a canal tunnel to prevent floods by making a bypass or undercurrent to flood discharge in a major flooding area is required because urban flooding in heavy rainfall occurs frequently, increasing the impermeability according to lack of capacity in sewage to urbanization by the existing urban basin. In this study, a numerical simulation was performed to support design standards for a multi-purpose waterway tunnel combined road tunnel of canal tunnel. The numerical simulation showed that the size of the friction loss occurring in the tunnel section of the same channel occurred more than the theoretically calculated frictional loss derived from the numerical simulations. This is probably due to the additional frictional loss caused by the change in the flow structure due to the geometry of the pipe when the shape of the channel is non-circular. The increase in friction loss was more pronounced in the laminar flow than in the turbulent flow. Depending on the shape of the conduit, the friction loss should be adjusted for accurate flow calculations. This result can provide the basin information about the design of flood by a pass conduit.

QTL Analysis of Rice Heading-related Genes Using Cheongcheong/Nagdong Doubled Haploid Genetic Map (청청/낙동 배가반수체 유전자 지도를 이용한 쌀의 출수기 관련 양적형질유전자좌(QTL) 분석)

  • Jang, Yoon-Hee;Park, Jae-Ryoung;Kim, Kyung-Min
    • Journal of Life Science
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    • v.30 no.10
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    • pp.844-850
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    • 2020
  • Disaster-related extreme weather is rapidly increasing due to climate change. In Korea, typhoons accompanied by rainfall usually approach in August and September, causing great damage. The purpose of this study is to find a gene that regulates the heading date of rice in order to avoid loss of harvest from climate change and typhoons. Cheongcheong/Nagdong doubled haploid (CNDH) was used as the plant material to investigate the location of heading-related genes using QTL and sequence analysis by cloning the gene. In the distribution chart, the heading dates, culm lengths, panicle lengths, numbers of panicles, and 1,000-grain weights all have normal distributions. QTL analysis found 13 contigs on chromosome 8. One QTL, named qHd8, was detected on chromosome 8. The range at qHd8 was approximately 7.7 cM, with RM72 and RM404 markers near the peak. There were 13 contigs and 1 ORF. Protein sequence analysis showed that rice was similar to Os08g0341700, AtSFH13, and AtSFH7 proteins. Os08g0341700, which is involved in signal transduction, is similar to phosphatidylinositol transfer-like protein II, and complete information is not available, but it is believed to play a role in the phosphatidylinositol-specific signaling pathway related to Sec14P.

Future PMPs projection according to precipitation variation under RCP 8.5 climate change scenario (RCP 8.5 기후변화 시나리오의 강수량 변화에 따른 미래 PMPs의 전망)

  • Lee, Okjeong;Park, Myungwoo;Lee, Jeonghoon;Kim, Sangdan
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.49 no.2
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    • pp.107-119
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    • 2016
  • Since future climate scenarios indicate that extreme precipitation events will intensity, probable maximum precipitations (PMPs) without being taken climate change into account are very likely to be underestimated. In this study future PMPs in accordance with the variation of future rainfall are estimated. The hydro-meteorologic method is used to calculate PMPs. The orographic transposition factor is applied in place of the conventional terrain impact factor which has been used in previous PMPs estimation reports. Future DADs are indirectly obtained by using bias-correction and moving-averaged changing factor method based on daily precipitation projection under KMA RCM (HEDGEM3-RA) RCP 8.5 climate change scenario. As a result, future PMPs were found to increase and the spatially-averaged annual PMPs increase rate in 4-hour and $25km^2$ was projected to be 3 mm by 2045. In addition, the increased rate of future PMPs is growing increasingly in the future, but it is thought that the uncertainty of estimating PMPs caused by future precipitation projections is also increased in the distant future.

Development of Realtime Dam's Hydrologic Variables Prediction Model using Observed Data Assimilation and Reservoir Operation Techniques (관측자료 동화기법과 댐운영을 고려한 실시간 댐 수문량 예측모형 개발)

  • Lee, Byong Ju;Jung, Il-Won;Jung, Hyun-Sook;Bae, Deg Hyo
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.46 no.7
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    • pp.755-765
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    • 2013
  • This study developed a real-time dam's hydrologic variables prediction model (DHVPM) and evaluated its performance for simulating historical dam inflow and outflow in the Chungju dam basin. The DHVPM consists of the Sejong University River Forecast (SURF) model for hydrologic modeling and an autoreservoir operation method (Auto ROM) for dam operation. SURF model is continuous rainfall-runoff model with data assimilation using an ensemble Kalman filter technique. The four extreme events including the maximum inflow of each year for 2006~2009 were selected to examine the performance of DHVPM. The statistical criteria, the relative error in peak flow, root mean square error, and model efficiency, demonstrated that DHVPM with data assimilation can simulate more close to observed inflow than those with no data assimilation at both 1-hour lead time, except the relative error in peak flow in 2007. Especially, DHVPM with data assimilation until 10-hour lead time reduced the biases of inflow forecast attributed to observed precipitation error. In conclusion, DHVPM with data assimilation can be useful to improve the accuracy of inflow forecast in the basin where real-time observed inflow are available.

Study on the influence of sewer network simplification on urban inundation modelling results (하수관망의 간소화가 도시침수 모의에 미치는 영향 분석에 관한 연구)

  • Lee, Seung-Soo;Pakdimanivong, Mary;Jung, Kwan-Sue;Kim, Yeonsu
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.51 no.4
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    • pp.347-354
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    • 2018
  • In urban areas, runoff flow is drained through sewer networks as well as surface areas. Therefore, it is very important to consider sewer networks as a component of hydrological drainage processes when conducting urban inundation modelling. However, most researchers who have implemented urban inundation/flood modelling, instinctively simplified the sewer networks without the appropriate criteria. In this research, a 1D-2D fully coupled urban inundation model is applied to estimate the influence of sewer network simplification on urban inundation modelling based on the dendritic network classification. The one-dimensional (1D) sewerage system analysis model, which was introduced by Lee et al. (2017), is used to simulate inlet and overflow phenomena by interacting with surface flow. Two-dimensional (2D) unstructured meshes are also applied to simulate surface flow and are combined with the 1D sewerage analysis model. Sewer network pipes are simplified based on the dendritic network classification method, namely the second and third order, and all cases of pipes are conducted as a control group. Each classified network case, including a control group, is evaluated through their application to the 27 July 2011 extreme rainfall event, which caused severe inundation damages in the Sadang area in Seoul, South Korea. All cases are compared together regarding inundation area, inflow discharge and overflow discharge. Finally, relevant criterion for the simplification method is recommended.

Water Quality Modelling of Flood Control Dam by HSPF and EFDC (HSPF-EFDC 모델을 연계한 홍수조절댐 수질 변화 예측)

  • Lee, Young-Gi;Hwang, Sang-Chul;Hwang, Hyun-Dong;Na, Jin-Young;Yu, Na-Young;Lee, Han-Jin
    • Journal of Environmental Impact Assessment
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    • v.27 no.3
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    • pp.251-266
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    • 2018
  • This study predicted the effect of operation pattern of flood control dam on water quality. Flood control dam temporarily impound floodwaters and then release them under control to the river below the dam preventing the river ecosystem from the extreme flood. The Hydrological Simulation Program Fortran (HSPF) and the Environmental Fluid Dynamics Code (EFDC) were adapted to predict the water quality before and after the dam construction in the proposed reservoir. The non-point pollutant delivery load from the river basin was estimated using the HSPF, and the EFDC was used to predict the water quality using the provided watershed boundary conditions from the HSPF. As a result of water quality simulation, it is predicted that the water quality will be improved due to the decrease of pollution source due to submergence after dam construction and temporary storage during rainfall. There would be no major water quality issues such as the eutrophication in the reservoir since the dam would impound the floodwater for a short time (2~3 days). In the environmental impact assessment stage of a planned dam, there may be some limitations to the exact simulation because the model can not be sufficiently calibrated. However, if the reliability of the model is improved through the acquisition of actual data in the future, it will be possible to examine the influence of the water environment according to various operating conditions in the environmental impact assessment of the new flood control dam.

Development of Climate Change Adaptation Plan for Kurunegala City, Sri Lanka (스리랑카 Kurunegala시의 기후변화 적응 계획 개발)

  • Reyes, Nash Jett DG.;Cho, Hanna;Geronimo, Franz Kevin F.;Jeon, Minsu;Kim, Leehyung
    • Journal of Wetlands Research
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    • v.21 no.4
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    • pp.354-364
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    • 2019
  • Sri Lanka is an island nation susceptible to climate-related disasters and extreme weather events. Kurunegala City is the developing capital city of the North-Western Province of Sri Lanka. Changes in rainfall patterns and a steadily increasing annual average temperature amounting to 0.69±0.37℃ were observed in the city area. Generally, urban areas are at risk due to the lack of climate change adaptation provisions incorporated in the development plans. This study was conducted to investigate the characteristics of Krunegala City, Sri Lanka and develop an appropriate climate change adaptation plan for the city. Site investigation and qualitative risk assessment were conducted to devise a plan relevant to the climate change adaptation needs of the city. Qualitative risk analyses revealed that drinking water, water resources, and health and infrastructure risks were among the major concerns in Kurunegala City. Low impact development (LID) technologies were found to be applicable to induce non-point source pollutant reduction, relieve urban heat island phenomenon, and promote sound water circulation systems. These technologies can be effective means of alleviating water shortage and reducing urban temperature. The measures and strategies presented in this study can serve as reference for developing climate change adaptation plans in areas experiencing similar adverse effects of climate change.