• Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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• 2015.05a
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• pp.467-467
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• 2015

Sustainable water resource management requires the assessment of hydrological variability in response to climate fluctuations and anthropogenic activities. Determining quantitative estimates of water balance and total basin discharge are of utmost importance to understand the variations within a basin. Hard-to-reach areas with few infrastructures, coupled with lengthy administrative procedures makes in-situ data collection and water management processes very difficult and unreliable. In this study, the hydrological behavior of Lake Chad whose extent, extreme climatic and environmental conditions make it difficult to collect field observations was examined. During a 10 year period [January 2003 to December 2013], dataset from space-borne and global hydrological models observations were analyzed. Terrestial water storage (TWS) data retrieved from Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE), lake level variations from Satellite altimetry, water fluxes and soil moisture from Global Land Data Assimilation System (GLDAS) were used for this study. Furthermore, we combined altimetry lake volume with TWS over the lake drainage basin to estimate groundwater and soil moisture variations. This will be validated with groundwater estimates from WaterGAP Global Hydrology Model (WGHM) outputs. TWS showed similar variation patterns Lake water level as expected. The TWS in the basin area is governed by the lake's surface water. As expected, rainfall from GLDAS precedes GRACE TWS with a phase lag of about 1 month. Estimates of groundwater and soil moisture content volume changes derived by combining altimetric Lake Volume with TWS over the drainage basin are ongoing. Results obtained shall be compared with WaterGap Hydrology Model (WGHM) groundwater estimate outputs.

• Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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• 2019.05a
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• pp.17-17
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• 2019

IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) 기후변화 전망보고서에 따르면 RCP 4.5 시나리오 기준, 21세기 전 지구 평균기온은 $2.5^{\circ}C$ 상승(한반도 $+3.0^{\circ}C$)하며, 전 지구 평균강수량은 4.1% 증가(한반도 +16.0%)할 것이라 전망하고 있다(기상청, 2012). 최근 기후변화와 기상이변에 따른 도심지 폭우특성이 변화하고 있음을 많은 연구결과에서 말해주고 있으며, 그 발생 빈도와 강도가 점차 증가하고 있는 추세이다. 특히, 서울시의 경우 인구와 재산이 밀집해 있어 폭우 발생에 의한 시민의 인명과 재산 피해 우려가 크다. 따라서 본 연구에서는 서울시를 대상으로 근미래(~2050년) 기후변화 하에서의 재현기간에 따른 확률강우량 변화 특성을 분석하여 비교 평가한 후 설계 강우량 산정에 활용하고자 하였다. 관측자료 기반 강수량의 변동 특성 분석과 Non-stationary GEV방법을 이용한 비정상성 빈도해석을 수행하였으며, 근미래 폭우특성 변화분석을 위하여 CMIP5 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5)에 참여한 GCMs(General Circulation Models)을 활용한 강우빈도해석을 수행하였다. Mann-Kendall Test와 Quantile Regression을 통한 서울지점 여름철 강수량(June to September)과 기준강수량 초과 강수(30, 50, 80, 100mm/hr), 연간 10th 최대 강수량(Annual Top 10th Precipitation) 등을 분석한 결과 최근 증가 경향이 뚜렷하게 나타났으며, 비정상성 빈도해석에 의한 확률강우량 분석의 가능성과 신뢰성을 확인하였다. 또한 19-GCMs을 통하여 모의된 일(Daily) 단위 강수량자료를 비모수통계적 상세화(Nonparametric Temporal Downscaling) 기법을 적용하여 시간(Hourly) 강우로 다운스케일링하였으며, 서울시 미래 확률강우량에 대한 IDF 곡선(Intensity-Duration-Frequency Curve)을 작성하여 비교?분석한 결과 지속시간 1시간 강우에 대하여 재현기간 30년, 100년 조건에서 확률강우량이 약 4%~11% 수준에서 증가하고 있음을 확인하였다. 본 연구의 결과는 도심지 수공구조물의 설계빈도 영향을 진단하고, 근미래 발생가능한 확률강우량 변화에 따른 시간당 목표 강우량설정의 방법론을 제시하였다는데 의의가 있으며, 서울시의 방재성능목표 설정과 침수취약지역 해소를 위한 기후변화에 따른 수공구조물 설계 시 활용이 가능할 것으로 기대된다.

• Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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• v.22 no.4
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• pp.287-294
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• 2021

A Python-based LSTM model was constructed using a Tensorflow backend to estimate the amount of outflow during floods in the Gokgyo-cheon basin flowing into the Sapgyo Lake. To understand the effects of the length of input data used for learning, i.e., the sequence length, on the performance of the model, the model was implemented by increasing the sequence length to three, five, and seven hours. Consequently, when the sequence length was three hours, the prediction performance was excellent over the entire period. As a result of predicting three extreme rainfall events in the model verification, it was confirmed that an average NSE of 0.96 or higher was obtained for one hour in the leading time, and the accuracy decreased gradually for more than two hours in the leading time. In conclusion, the flood level at the Gangcheong station of Gokgyo-cheon can be predicted with high accuracy if the prediction is performed for one hour of leading time with a sequence length of three hours.

• KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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• v.39 no.1
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• pp.33-44
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• 2019

Due to the recent climate change realization (timing, rainfall pattern changes), the flow regime is changing according to the watershed. The long-term change of flow regime is causing a significant change in structure and function of aquatic ecosystems. However, there is no analysis from the viewpoint of the aquatic ecosystem including flow rate alteration and ecological characteristics as well as the climate change connection in Korea yet. Therefore, We quantitatively assessed the impact of present-future flow regime alteration due to climate change on the Pseudopungtungia nigra habitat in the Mankyung river and floodplain area. As a result, it was confirmed that extreme hydrological conditions such as flood and drought are intensified in the future than the present. Especially, the changes of flow regime characteristics were clarified by comparing and analyzing the magnitude, frequency, duration, rate of change, and by linking flow regime characteristics with physical habitat analysis, it could be suggested that climate change would significantly increase the risk of future ecological changes.

• Journal of The Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers
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• v.61 no.3
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• pp.101-112
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• 2019

This study developed selection criteria of small-scales reservoirs, having under $300,000m^3$ storage capacity, for the Emergency Action Plan(EAP) establishment in order to reduce the disaster risks of the reservoir's failures. Those reservoirs are out of ranges of Korean EAP establishment standard, but have potential risk of disasters as they have often failed by the recent extreme rainfall events and earthquakes, causing economical and life losses. The problem of reservoir aging is also one of the reasons of them. In this study, the developed selection criteria of small reservoirs for EAP establishment are storage capacity, embankment height, reservoir age, heavy rain factor and earthquake factor. These criteria were selected based on the review of the existing EAP establishment guidelines, analysis of the past dam failure cases, and the previous related studies. The quantification of these criteria were conducted for the practical applications in the fields, and applied to 67 previous failures in order to investigate the relation of each criteria with these failures. The earthquake factor found to be the highest relations followed by heavy rain factors, combination of earthquake and heavy rain factors, and reservoir age. The classification was made as observation and review groups for EAP establishments based on overlapping numbers of each criteria. This classifications applied to 354 reservoirs designated as having the potential disaster risk by MOIS, and showed 38.4% of observation and 11.9% of review groups. Anticipatory monitoring and regular inspection should be made by professional facility managers for the observation group, and necessity of EAP establishment should be assessed for the review group based on the downstream status and financial budget.

• Journal of Korea Society of Waste Management
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• v.35 no.8
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• pp.777-784
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• 2018

Since climate change increases the risk of extreme rainfall events, concerns on flood management have also increased. In order to rapidly recover from flood damages and prevent secondary damages, fast collection and treatment of flood debris are necessary. Therefore, a quick and precise estimation of flood debris generation is a crucial procedure in disaster management. Despite the importance of debris estimation, methodologies have not been well established. Given the intrinsic heterogeneity of flood debris from local conditions, a regional-scale model can increase the accuracy of the estimation. The objectives of this study are 1) to identify significant damage variables to predict the flood debris generation, 2) to ascertain the difference in the coefficients, and 3) to evaluate the accuracy of the debris estimation model. The scope of this work is flood events in Ulsan city region during 2008-2016. According to the correlation test and multicollinearity test, the number of damaged buildings, area of damaged cropland, and length of damaged roads were derived as significant parameters. Key parameters seems to be strongly dependent on regional conditions and not only selected parameters but also coefficients in this study were different from those in previous studies. The debris estimation in this study has better accuracy than previous models in nationwide scale. It can be said that the development of a regional-scale flood debris estimation model will enhance the accuracy of the prediction.

• The Journal of Engineering Geology
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• v.32 no.4
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• pp.661-670
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• 2022

In recent years, extreme rainfall and rainy seasons caused by climate change have caused river flooding and flooding damage, and it is urgent to solve economic and environmental problems in the city center due to the increase in the number of peak homes. The gap block, called the fitting block, is designed to facilitate rainwater pitching by forming a gap between the block and the block by forming a concave part and a protrusion of the block differently without the use of an existing spacer. In this study, for the production of such a gap block, the existing cement content was reduced and aramid fibers and exploration fibers, which are industrial by-products such as Goroslag fine powder and reinforcing fibers, were applied.

• Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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• 2023.05a
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• pp.248-248
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• 2023

In recent years, the number of landslides in Korea has been increasing due to extreme weather events such as localized heavy rainfall and typhoons. Landslides often occur with debris flows, land subsidence, and earthquakes. They cause significant damage to life and property. 64% of Korea's land area is made up of mountains, the government wanted to predict landslides to reduce damage. In response, the Korea Forest Service has established a 'Landslide Information System' to predict the likelihood of landslides. This system selects a total of 13 landslide factors based on past landslide events. Using the LR technique (Logistic Regression) to predict the possibility of a landslide occurrence and the accuracy is known to be 0.75. However, most of the data used for learning in the current system is on landslides that occurred from 2005 to 2011, and it does not reflect recent typhoons or heavy rain. Therefore, in this study, we will apply a total of six machine learning techniques (KNN, LR, SVM, XGB, RF, GNB) to predict the occurrence of landslides based on the data of Inje, Gangwon-do, which was recently produced by the National Institute of Forest. To predict the occurrence of landslides, it is necessary to process converting landslide events and factors data into a suitable form for machine learning techniques through ArcGIS and Python. In addition, there is a large difference in the number of data between areas where landslides occurred or not. Therefore, the prediction was performed after correcting the unbalanced data using Tomek Links and Near Miss techniques. Moreover, to control unbalanced data, a model that reflects soil properties will use to remove absolute safe areas.

• Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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• 2023.05a
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• pp.116-116
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• 2023

대규모 댐과 같은 수공구조물의 파괴시 상당한 피해가 발생하므로 구조물설계시 가능최대강수량(PMP) 기준이 적용된다. 포락선 방법은 가장 극심했던 강우량의 포락선을 작성하여 PMP를 산정하는 방법으로 기상 및 강수량자료가 부족시 PMP 추정이 어려운 경우에 사용한다. 포락선의 근사식은 지속시간의 거듭제곱인 멱함수 형태로 나타내며, 우리나라의 경우 1일을 전후로 계수와 차수가 다른 식을 사용한다. 이러한 근사식은 우리나라의 이상홍수 발생빈도 및 규모가 커짐에 따라 검토될 필요성이 있다. 또한, PMP 산정시 활용하는 제한된 수의 지상관측자료는 시공간적 변동성을 완전히 포착할 수 없어 한계가 있다. 본 연구는 이러한 한계를 극복하기 위하여 기상레이더 자료를 기반으로 우리나라 전역의 최대 강우깊이-지속시간 관계를 분석 및 새로운 PMP 포락선을 제시한다. 활용한 레이더는 CMAX(Column Maximum)로 2009~2018년간 10분 단위자료를 수집하였다. 레이더 자료와 비교하기 위하여 지상관측자료 AWS를 함께 수집하였다. AWS는 1997~2022년간 1분 단위자료로 우리나라 전역의 547개 지점관측자료를 활용하였다. 레이더자료는 Z-R 관계식으로 변환하여 가외치(outlier)를 제거 및 보정하였다. 그 후, 정규 크리깅기법으로 생성한 지상관측 강우장과 병합하는 CM(Conditional Merging)기법을 적용하였다. 우리나라 최대 강우깊이-지속시간 관계를 산정한 결과, 기존 포락선의 값이 낮게 산정되었음을 확인하였다. 이는 기후변화 등에 따라 최근 극한 호우가 발생한 것으로 판단된다. 또한, 실제 근사식은 멱함수 거동에서 벗어난 형태로 나타났고, 지점관측자료가 기상레이더 값보다 과소추정되는 경향을 확인하였다. 특히 같은 기간에서 확인하였을 때, 강우지속시간이 짧을수록 AWS값과 레이더자료의 강수량이 2배 정도 차이를 보여 지점관측소가 없는 지역의 국지성 호우 존재를 확인할 수 있었다. 추후, 미래에 더 긴 레이더 시계열을 사용한다면, 더욱 신뢰성 있는 자료로 활용할 수 있을 것으로 판단한다.

• Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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• 2022.05a
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• pp.294-294
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• 2022

In 2013, the Asian Development Bank classified the Philippines among the countries facing high food security risks. Evidence has suggested that climate change has affected agricultural productivity, and the effect of extreme climatic events notably drought has worsened each year. This had resulted in serious hydrological repercussions by limiting the timely water availability for the agriculture sector. Laguna is the 3^rd most populated province in the country, and it serves as one of the food baskets that feed the region and nearby provinces. In addition to climate change, population growth, rapid industrialization, and urban encroachment are also straining the delicate balance between water demand and supply. Studies have projected that the province will experience less rainfall and an increase in temperature, which could simultaneously affect water availability and crop yield. Hence, understanding the composite threat of climate change for crop yield and water consumption is imperative to devise mitigation plans and judicious use of water resources. The water footprint concept elaborates the water used per unit of crop yield production and it can approximate the dual impacts of climate change on water and agricultural production. In this study, the water footprint (WF) of six main crops produced in Laguna were estimated during 2010-2020 by following the methodology proposed by the Water Footprint Network. The result of this work gives importance to WF studies in a local setting which can be used as a comparison between different provinces as well as a piece of vital information to guide policy makers to adopt plans for crop-related use of water and food security in the Philippines.