• Title/Summary/Keyword: explanatory hypothesis

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A Study on the Purchasing Power Parity Hypothesis: Evidence from China (구매력평가 가설에 대한 연구: 중국을 대상으로)

  • Zhang, Xueqin;He, Yugang
    • The Journal of Industrial Distribution & Business
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    • v.10 no.2
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    • pp.65-75
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    • 2019
  • Purpose - Along with Chinese exchange rate's reform advancement, the issue of exchange rate of RMB has increasingly become the heated focus in the world. In July 2005, China carried out the reform of the exchange rate system, and this behavior has aroused the attention of the world. However, the dispute on whether the theory of purchasing power parity holds or not in China still exists. As such, this paper will attempt to explore whether the purchasing power parity is significant in China. Research design, data, and methodology - The monthly data from July 2005 to December 2017 will be employed to analyze the nominal exchange rate of RMB against the US dollar and the nominal exchange rate of RMB against the euro. Based on these datum, an empirical analysis will be conducted under the unit root test and the cointegration test to exploit the significance of purchasing power parity in China. Results - The findings of this paper reveal that an increase in China's consumer price index will lead to an increase in the RMB exchange rate, which will lead to the depreciation of RMB. Concomitantly, an increase in the consumer price index in the US and Europe will result in a decrease in the RMB exchange rate, which will lead to an appreciation of RMB. In general, in terms of the US, if US consumer price index increases by 1%, China's nominal exchange rate against US dollar will decrease by 0.905%; if China's consumer price index increases by 1%, China's nominal exchange rate against US dollar will increase by 0.648%. In terms of Europe, if Europe consumer price index increases by 1%, China's nominal exchange rate against euro will decrease by 0.277%; If China's consumer price index increases by 1%, China's nominal exchange rate against euro will increase by 0.235%. Conclusions - Generally speaking, the empirical evidences this paper provided show that the purchasing power parity theory has a certain explanatory ability for the decision of RMB exchange rate. As such, the purchasing power parity cannot hold completely, and China's government should continue to deepen the reform of the exchange rate system to improve China's exchange rate market.

Investigations on the Financial Determinants of Profitability for Korean Chaebol Firms by applying Conditional Quantile Regression (CQR) Model (국내 재벌기업들의 수익성관련 분위회귀모형 상 재무적 결정요인 분석)

  • Kim, Hanjoon
    • The Journal of the Korea Contents Association
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    • v.14 no.12
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    • pp.973-988
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    • 2014
  • This study investigated one of the contemporary issues in the Korean capital market and two hypotheses of concern were tested on the financial determinants of profitability for the firms belonging to the Korean chaebols during the era of the post-global financial turmoil. The first hypothesis applying conditional quantile regression (CQR) estimation provided the evidence that leverage ratio, fixed asset utilization, and foreign ownership among the nine quantitative explanatory variables, had overall statistical significance relative to the book-valued profitability measure, while additional variables such as a firm's size, fixed and a proxy for the type of exchange market showed their strong impacts on the market-valued profitability indicator. Concerning the formulated 'extended' DuPont system, only two components of EBITDAEBIT and EMULTIPLIER revealed their prominent influence on ROE (Return on Equity) over the two tested periods (the years 2008 and 2012).

Estimating the Determinants of Households' Monthly Average Income : A Panel Data Model Approach (패널 데이터모형을 적용한 가구당 월평균 가계소득 결정요인 추정에 관한 연구)

  • Yi, Hyun-Joo;Cheul, Hee-Cheul
    • Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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    • v.11 no.6
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    • pp.2038-2045
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    • 2010
  • Households' monthly average income is composed of various factors. This study paper studies focuses on estimating the determinants of a households' monthly average income. The region for analysis consist of three groups, that is, the whole country, a metropolitan city(such as Busan, Daegu, Incheon, Gwangiu, Daejeon, Ulsan.) and Seoul. Analyzing period be formed over a 57 time points(2005. 01~2009. 09). In this paper the dependent variable setting up the households' monthly average income, explanatory (independent) variables are composed of the consumer price index, employment to population ratio, Index of housing sale price, the preceding composite index, loans of housing mortgage, spending rate for care medical expense and the composite stock price index. In looking at the factors which determine the monthly average income, evidence was produced supporting the hypothesis that there is a significant positive relationship between the composite index and housing loans. The study also produced evidence supporting the view that there is a significant negative relationship between employment ratios, the house sale pricing index and spending rates for care or medical needs. The study found that the consumer price index and composite stock price index were not significant variables. The implications of these findings are discussed for further research.

An Analysis of Policy Effects of Export Infrastructure Strengthening Program on Export of Food Distribution Companies (수출인프라강화사업이 식품유통기업 수출에 미치는 정책효과 분석)

  • Huang, Seong-Hyuk;Ji, Seong-Tae
    • Journal of Distribution Science
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    • v.16 no.1
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    • pp.87-99
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    • 2018
  • Purpose - The Export Infrastructure Strengthening Program(EISP) is a project to expand exports of agri-food products through providing customized export information to food distribution companies and supporting overseas information activities. A total of 39.6 billion won was provided by 2016. So, the purpose of this study is to analyze whether EISP is effective for expanding exports of agri-food products. Research design, data, and methodology - A simple average difference between the export performance of the policy beneficiaries and the non-policy beneficiaries can be biased if the export capacity or inherent characteristics of the enterprise are not taken into consideration. In order to solve the problem of such a bias, the propensity score matching(PSM) method has been employed in this study. PSM is a method of converting the characteristics of an export company into an index through logit analysis and then reducing the matching to one dimension to improve the accuracy of the performance measurement. Results - The balancing test was conducted to determine how the characteristics of the policy beneficiary group and the matched policy non-beneficiary group corresponded to each other. As a result of the test, we could not reject the null hypothesis that there was no difference between the two groups, so that after the matching, the two groups were similar and the explanatory variables were well controlled. Using the nearest neighbor matching with propensity score estimating through logit analysis, we estimated average treatment effect on the treated(ATT). The food companies participating the EISP had the effect of increasing the exports of $ 5.88 million. As a result, the number of export contracts increased by 11.77, the number of exporting countries by 7.52, the number of export items by 47.51, and the number of buyers' consultation by 3.50. And overseas marketing expenses increased by 35.92 million won. Except for the number of export contracts, other export performance results showed statistically significant results. Conclusions - As the EISP has a positive effect on the expansion of agro-food exports, efforts should be made to find out the limitations or problems of the policy in the future and to make a greater contribution to the increase of exports.

A Review on the Financial Profile of Profitability for the KOSDAQ Listed Firms Headquartered in 'Chungcheong' province in the Republic of Korea (국내 충청권 기반 KOSDAQ 상장기업들의 수익성 결정요인 분석)

  • Kim, Hanjoon
    • Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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    • v.14 no.11
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    • pp.5476-5487
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    • 2013
  • From foreign and/or domestic investors' perspectives, it may be interesting to find any financial attributes or profile of the firms headquartered in 'Chungcheong' province concerning profitability, given that this subject so far drew less attention in the previous literature. This study performed three hypothesis tests on the profitability indicator by utilizing the models such as the 'panel data' one and the 'logistic' regression one, applying a modified 'Dupont' system. With respect to the major findings, the results identified that the proxies measuring leverage across the book-value(BVLEV1) and the market-value(MVLEV1) bases, were statistically significant constituents determining profitability. Another explanatory variable, SIZE, with its positive and statistically significant relationship to the indicator, represented that the firms in the province were smaller than their counterparts in the other regional areas in Korea. DRELY applying a modified 'Dupont' system, found to be the only statistically significant discriminating factor between these comparison groups. As one of the primary contributions of this study, the outcomes may be used by the financial institutions operated across the regions including Seoul Metropolitan area, when implementing their lending practices to provide funds for potential borrowers such as the firms belonging to 'Chungcheong' province.

Estimating the Determinants of Loan Amount of Housing Mortgage : A Panel Data Model Approach (주택 담보 가계 대출액 결정요인 추정에 관한 패널 데이터 모형 연구)

  • Kim, Hee-Cheul;Shin, Hyun-Cheul
    • Journal of the Korea Society of Computer and Information
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    • v.16 no.7
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    • pp.183-190
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    • 2011
  • Loan amount of housing mortgage is composed of various factors. This study paper studies focuses on estimating the determinants of a loan amount of housing mortgage. The region for analysis consist of seven groups, that is, metropolitan city (such as Busan, Daegu, Incheon, Gwangiu, Daejeon, Ulsan.) and Seoul. Analyzing period be formed over a 45 time points(2007. 01.~ 2010. 09). In this paper the dependent variable setting up loan amount of housing mortgage, explanatory(independent) variables are composed of the consumer price index, unemployment rate, average monthly household income per household, expenditure rate of health care, composite stock price index and overdue rate of household loans for commercial bank. In looking at the factors which determine loan amount of housing mortgage, evidence was produced supporting the hypothesis that there is a significant positive relationship between the consumer price index and unemployment rate. The study also produced evidence supporting the view that there is a significant negative relationship between expenditure rate of health care. The study found that average monthly household income per household, expenditure, composite stock price index and overdue rate of household loans for commercial bank were not significant variables. The implications of these findings are discussed for further research.

A Study on the Effects of Selection Attributes for Agricultural Products on Using Local Food Store (농산물 구매선택 속성이 로컬푸드 직매장 이용에 미치는 영향 연구)

  • Chung, Joon-Ho;Hwang, Sung-Hyuk
    • Journal of Distribution Science
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    • v.14 no.4
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    • pp.117-125
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    • 2016
  • Purpose - As consumers' needs for purchasing fresh and safe food have been bigger in Korea, their interest in local food is also growing recently. So, the number of local food stores has been increased from 3 in 2012 to 103 in 2015. Local food stores should operate a business responding consumers' needs in order that local food stores are not to be a one-time fad. Therefore, the purpose of this study is to analyze the characteristics of consumers who use a local food store and provide helpful implications to design a strategy for sustainable growth of local food store. Research design, data, and methodology - In this study, Probit model was used for empirical analysis in order to examine the effect of purchase choice attributes of agricultural products, consumer's satisfaction, and their demographic factors upon the intention to use a local food store. After estimating coefficients of the probit model, marginal effects were calculated as a standard normal, and cumulative distribution is differentiated with respect to explanatory variables. To collect the data, questionnaire survey was carried out with the consumers using the local food store (Youngjin Nonghyup near to Jeonju city located in Jeollabuk-do). Result - The data analysis found that the more consumers are satisfied with local food store, the higher intention they have to use the local food store. In addition, it was known that the factors related to quality of agricultural products and shopping convenience among the purchase choice attributes have a considerable impact on the purchase intention of a local food store. In demographic factors, income was turned out to be an important factor affecting purchase intention of local food. Such a result supports the hypothesis that high income consumers are likely to purchase local food, which is based on the inference that consumers who have a high income tend to pursue wellbeing life. Futhermore, information delivery, through a reputable media source among general factors, was known to play an important role in forming an intention to purchase local food. According to the analysis of marginal effects, probability of purchase intention of a local food store is increased by 11.4%, if a monthly average income of a household is above 4.5 million Won(Korean currency). If purchasing satisfaction with local food stores is high, the probability of purchase intention would be increased by 24.1%. Likewise, such a probability goes up by 8.7%, 5.8%, respectively as an increasing one unit of quality of agricultural products and shopping convenience of local food stores, respectively. Conclusion - For attaining sustainable growth in a local food store, it is considered necessarily to establish a proper store operation system to meet consumers' needs, especially for quality and shopping convenience of local food. Moreover, as it was found that appropriate communication through media source has a positive effect on the intention to use local food store, PR activity seems to be necessary to expand the consumers' demands for local foods.

Left-tail Risk and Expected Stock Returns in the Korean Stock Market (국내 주식시장에서 주가급락위험이 기대수익률에 미치는 영향)

  • Cheon, Yong-Ho;Ban, Ju-Il
    • The Journal of the Korea Contents Association
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    • v.21 no.11
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    • pp.320-332
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    • 2021
  • This paper investigates the influence of stock-level left-tail risk, which is defined using Value-at-Risk(VaR) estimates of past one-year daily stock returns, in the expected stock returns in the Korean stock market. Our results are summarized as follows: First, monthly-constructed zero-cost portfolios that buy (shortsell) the highest (lowest) left-tail risk decile in the previous month exhibit an average monthly return (called left-tail risk premium) of -2.29%. Second, Fama-MacBeth cross-sectional regressions suggest that left-tail risk in the previous month shows significant and negative explanatory power over return in this month, after controlling for various firm characteristics such as firm size, B/M, market beta, liquidity, maximum daily return, idiosyncratic volatility, and skewness. Third, the stocks with larger recent month loss have lower returns in the next month. Fourth, the magnitude of left-tail risk premium is negatively related with lagged market-level volatility. These results support the hypothesis from a perspective of behavioral finance that the overpricing of stocks with left-tail risk is attributed to the investors' underreaction to it.

Industry Analyses on the Research & Development Expenditures for Korean Chaebol Firms (국내 재벌 계열사들의 연구개발비에 대한 재무적 산업효과 분석)

  • Kim, Hanjoon
    • Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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    • v.20 no.6
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    • pp.379-389
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    • 2019
  • The study empirically investigates financial factors that may influence on corporate R&D intensity during the post-era of the global financial turmoil (from 2010 to 2015) to mitigate possible spillover effect associated with the crisis. Concerning the empirical research settings of the study, chaebol firms listed in the KOSPI stock market are used as sample data with adopting various econometric estimation methods to enhance validity of the results. In the first hypothesis test, it is found that there exist inter-industry financial differences in terms of the ratio of R&D expenditure across all the sample years, but the statistical differences may arise from only a few domestic industries beloning to the high-growth sector. Moreover, it is also interesting to identify that, for the high-tech sector, 3 explanatory variables such as R&D intensity in a prior year, firm size and change in cash holdings are proved to be financial factors to discriminate between chaebol firms and their counterparts of non-chaebol firms, whereas a proportion of tangible assets over total assets as well as the former two variables are shown to be significant factors on the R&D intensity for the low-tech sector.

Verifying the Causal Relationship of the Dancer's Ability to Trust and Objectives and Confidence (무용수의 능력믿음과 목표 및 자신감의 인과 관계 검증)

  • Lee, Dong-Sook
    • Journal of Korea Entertainment Industry Association
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    • v.14 no.2
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    • pp.51-62
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    • 2020
  • The study was conducted to verify the causality of the ability of high school and college dance majors to influence the successful goal orientation and how the change in goal affects the sense of dance performance self-confidence. In this regard, 172 dance majors were collected to collect data on their belief in dance ability, the direction of mastery goal of approach and avoidance, and the measure of confidence in dance performance, and the results of their studies were derived through correlation and structural equation analysis and path analysis. The analysis results showed reasonable factor structure and reliability based on the preceding study of feasibility analysis results between variables. Thus, the structural equation for the study variables confirmed that the theoretical hypothesis was suitable, and the path of each variable was verified through the path analysis. The analysis showed that the increased belief that ability can be improved by effort has been found to improve the effort and consequently the confidence in dancing. Also, the fixed belief that ability is not changing in a fixed sense has been found to affect the avoidance goal and reduce confidence. It can be interpreted that the more one believes that one can change one's ability by effort, the more one strengthens one's actions to achieve one's goal, thereby improving one's dance confidence. Therefore, it is deemed necessary for subsequent studies to explore whether the paths of these models differ by their major or dance careers, and to apply variables that can measure the success or failure of actual performances to enhance the explanatory power of these research variables.