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A Study on Smoking Behavior and The Influencing Factors Among High School Male Students in Korea (고등학교(高等學校) 남학생(男學生)의 흡연행위(吸煙行爲)와 관련요인(關聯要因) 분석(分析))

  • Chang, Young Mee
    • Journal of the Korean Society of School Health
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    • v.4 no.2
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    • pp.193-215
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    • 1991
  • This study is aimed at providing basic information applicable to setting up the education programs and strategies to prevent smoking among high school students by analysing smoking behavior and influencing factors. The samples consisted of 814 students, 557 parents and 362 teachers selected randomly from 8 high schools, one from each school district in Seoul. Date Analyses were made through Chi-Square test, Factor Analysis, One Way ANOVA, Multiple Regression, Correlation. SPSS/$PC^+$program was utilized. Smoking behavior (continuous smoking, re-smoking, ex-smoking, never smoking, daily smoking, occasional smoking) were used as dependent variables. Influencing factors (male students, habits, attitudes and knowledge toward smoking, home life, school life, juvenile delinquency, friendship, demographic parent's and teacher's recognition toward male students smoking) were used as in dependent variables. The major findings of the study are as follows : 1. The total smoking rate occupies 41.1% whereas the continuous smoking rate stands at 19.2%, re-smoking rate 9.5%, ex-smoking rate 12.4% and never smoking rate 58.9%. 2. The total smoking rate among high school students is significantly correlated with their monthly expenditures and type of school (p<0.001). The continuous smoking rate also shows the same tendency. As the length of butt get shorter, the current smoking rate increase. The duration of smoking is in proportion to its continuity. The major motive of smoking is curiousity whereas that re-smoking is to follow friend's behavior. The study shows that peer pressure is the most powerful factor influencing smoking behavior of students. Friends and fellow students encourage to pick up smoking and resume smoking even alter one stops smoking. 3. The correlationship between favorable attitudes toward smoking and the current smoking rate and its continuity is statistically significant(p<0.05, p<0.01, p<0.001). 4. The stability and harmony of family life and the current smoking rate show negative correlationship. The daily smoking amount of father is in proportion to the continuity of students' smoking. When parents are in favor of smoking, it is more likely that the experimental smoking rate increase the smoking rate increases, and vice versa. The more acceptable attitudes toward smoking among siblings is also one of the factors to increase the smoking rate and continuity (p<0.001). The more lenient the attitudes of parents toward their children's association with smoking friends, the higher the smoking rate. When students have difficulties in adjusting to school life, it is more likely that the current smoking rate and continuity increase. 5. The continuity of smoking and friendship are significantly correlated (p<0.05, p<0.01, p<0.001). 6. The continuity of smoking and juvenile delinquency are significantly correlated (p<0.001). 7. The difference in attitudes and smoking reasons of parents and students is significantly correlated to different smoking behavior (p<0.01, p<0.001). While smoking knowledge does not significantly influence their smoking behavior, it is noted that in the case of teachers, smoking reason (p<0.05), attitudes (p<0.001) and knowledge (p<0.05) strongly influence their smoking behavior. 8. There is a significantly correlation among the smoking reasons, attitudes and knowledge between students and parents(p<0.001). As for the correlationship between regularity and smoking amount and other influencing factors, the daily smoking amount is in proportion to depth of inhalation and duration of smoking, negative attitudes of parents unstability of family, dissatisfaction of family members, juvenile delinquency, strong smoking reasons and positive attitudes towards smoking. 9. In the case of daily smokers depth of inhalation is significantly correlated to the duration of smoking, juvenile delinquency, acceptability of parents, dissatisfaction of family members and smoking reasons. The duration of smoking motives is significantly correlated to juvenile delinquency, high acceptability of parents, strong smoking motive and positive attitudes toward smoking. 10. It is noted that 40% of parents and 30% of teachers do not recognize the significant correlationship between and the relative influencing factors mentioned above.

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Empirical Analysis of University Patenting in Korea (특허자료를 이용한 우리나라 대학 연구의 특성 분석)

  • Suh, Joonghae
    • KDI Journal of Economic Policy
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    • v.32 no.4
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    • pp.115-151
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    • 2010
  • Recently Korean universities show very rapid increases in both patents and R&D (research and development) expenditures. During the period from 1970 to 2008, university R&D spending has on the average increased 15.3% annually. Along with steady increases in R&D spending, university's research outputs have also continuously increased. In 1990 Korea as a total published 1,613 SCI-level scientific papers and Korean universities applied 27 patents to Korea patent office. In 2008, Korea published more that 35,000 SCI papers and Korean universities applied about 7,300 patents. The growth of scientific articles had begun from the early 1990s whereas the growth of patent has ignited entering the 2000s. The paper tried to investigate university research through the window of patent. Patents lie between invention and innovation and represent the potential value of invention which will be realized at the marketplace. Since Korean patents do not contain citation information, the paper used US patents-NBER patent database-as the main data. The key empirical question is whether Korean university patents granted from USPTO are characteristically different from other Korean patents granted from USPTO. Previous studies on US and Europe show that corporate patents are more stylized in appropriablity of invention, whereas university patents basicness. In case of Korea, the paper confirmed the appropriability characteristic of corporate patents; but the Korean unversity patents are not distinguishable in terms of basicness. The paper estimated the citation frequency function-an empirical model which was firstly developed by Caballero and Jaffe (1993) and later articulated by Jaffe and Trajtenberg (1996, 2002). The model is specified mainly composed of two interacting parts-diffusion effect and obsolescence effect of new ideas or innovations. Estimation results show that differences in forward citations between university and corporate patents are not statistically significant, after controlling self-citation. Since forward citations represent the quality of patents, this estimation result implies that there are no statistically significant quality differences between university and corporate patents. Prior research results, based on the same model of citation frequency function, about US and some European cases show that, in terms of forward citations, university patents are generally superior to corporate patents -for the case of US- or, the former not inferior to the latter-for the case of most of Europe. It is argued that some important and significant policy changes caused the rapid rise of university patents in Korea. Policy changes include the revision of technology transfer act allowing the ownership of publicly-funded research results to researchers and the changes in faculty/professor evaluation which gives more credit to the number of patents. These policy changes have triggered the rapid growth of the number of university patents. The results of the empirical analysis in this paper indicated that Korea now needs to make further efforts to enhance the quality of university patents, not just to produce more numbers of patents.

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Performance of Occupational Health Services by Type of Service : Cost Benefit Analysis (사업장 보건관리 사업의 형태별 수행성과 분석 -비용편익 분석을 중심으로-)

  • Cho, Tong Ran;Kim, Hwa Joong
    • Korean Journal of Occupational Health Nursing
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    • v.4
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    • pp.5-29
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    • 1995
  • Occupational health services in Korea have been operated as dual types : one is operated by occupational health care manager and the other is health care agency without their own personnel. The performance of occupational health service should be different due to the variety of characteristics of health care manager and workplace, qualification of health care manager. This study is to analyze performance of occupational health care services with a particular consideration of job performance shape and efficiency, based on comparing those two types of health care management to show on the basic data for the settlement of more qualitative health care management system at workplace. For this study, total 391 places in Seoul and Inchon city area ; 154 places (39.4%) managed by designated health care manager and 237 places (60.6%) by the agency with their commission are selected as research samples. Tools for data collection are questionnares that have been investigated during the period of 20 September 1993-20 December 1993. Those data are compared with percentiles, mean, standard deviation and B/C ratio using SPSS PC program. Conclusions observed from the tests and each comparison could be summerized as follows : 1. Occupational health care have been accomplished at workplaces with designated people than with agencies people, and coverage rate of the occupational health care services has differences, due to management types. The reason of these results is due to visit only one or two times monthly by the agencies, while their own health care manager obsess, at the workplaces all the times. 2. Most of the expense for environmental control of all health care services expenditures shows that there is almost no fundamental improvement because more expenses are needed for procuring personal protective equipment and measuring work environment instead of environmental improvement. 3. It is investigated how much the cost of occupational health care services needs per worker, and calculated how much the cost needs per service hour per worker. The results from this show that the cost of occupational health services at workplaces with their own managers used less than the cost of health care agencies, eventually the former gives better services with less cost than the latter. 4. Benefit/Cost ratio is also produced by total benefit/total cost. The result from the above way reads 4.57 as a whole, while their own manager having workplaces reads 4.82 and the agencies do l.56. Even if their own manager performing workplaces spent more cost, this system produces more benefit than the agencies management. 5. The B/C ratio for medical organization such as local clinic, health care center and pharmacy shows more than or equal to at the workplaces controlled by the agencies. It is inferred that benefit would be much less than the cost used, with so being inefficient. 6. It is assumed that the efficiency ratio of health education is equal to reduction rate of workers medical organization visit. Estimated reduction rate 5%, 10%, 15%, show that the efficiency ratio of health education have an effect on producing benefits. It is estimated that more benefit can be produced if more qualitative education will be provided for enhancing health care efficiency. 7. Results of this study cannot be generalized because there are large scale of deviation in case of workplaces with less than 300 full time workers, but B/C ratio reads 2.69 as a whole and 3.25 at workplaces with their own health care manager are higher than 1.63 at the workplaces manged by the agencies. Finally, all the benefit concerning health care services could not be quantified, measured and shown on the value of money. This is a reason that a considerable part of benefits are so underestimated. This is also thought that measurement tools should be developed for measuring benefits of health care services with a comprehensive quantification. in the future. It is also expected that efficiency of occupational health care services should be investigated using cost-effectiveness analysis.

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Space Development and Law in Asia (아시아의 우주개발과 우주법)

  • Cho, Hong-Je
    • The Korean Journal of Air & Space Law and Policy
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    • v.28 no.2
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    • pp.349-384
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    • 2013
  • The Sputnik 1 launching in 1957 made the world recognize the necessity of international regulations on space development and activities in outer space. The United Nations established COPUOS the very next year, and adopted the mandate to examine legal issues concerning the peaceful uses of outer space. At the time, the military sector of the U.S.A. and the Soviet Union were in charge of the space development and they were not welcomed to discuss the prohibition of the military uses of outer space at the legal section in the COPUOS. Although both countries had common interests in securing the freedom of military uses in outer space. As the social and economic benefits derived from space activities have become more apparent, civil expenditures on space activities have continued to increase in several countries. Virtually all new spacefaring states explicitly place a priority on space-based applications to support social and economic development. Such space applications as satellite navigation and Earth imaging are core elements of almost every existing civil space program. Likewise, Moon exploration continues to be a priority for such established spacefaring states as China, Russia, India, and Japan. Recently, Companies that manufacture satellites and ground equipment have also seen significant growth. On 25 February 2012 China successfully launched the eleventh satellite for its indigenous global navigation and positioning satellite system, Beidou. Civil space activities began to grow in China when they were allocated to the China Great Wall Industry Corporation in 1986. China Aerospace Corporation was established in 1993, followed by the development of the China National Space Administration. In Japan civil space was initially coordinated by the National Space Activities Council formed in 1960. Most of the work was performed by the Institute of Space and Aeronautical Science of the University of Tokyo, the National Aerospace Laboratory, and, most importantly, the National Space Development Agency. In 2003 all this work was assumed by the Japanese Aerospace Exploration Agency(JAXA). Japan eases restrictions on military space development. On 20 June 2012 Japan passed the Partial Revision of the Cabinet Establishment Act, which restructured the authority to regulate Japanese space policy and budget, including the governance of the JAXA. Under this legislation, the Space Activities Commission of the Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science, and Technology, which was responsible for the development of Japanese space program, will be abolished. Regulation of space policy and budget will be handed over to the Space Strategy Headquarter formed under the Prime Minister's Cabinet. Space Strategy will be supported by a Consultative Policy Commission as an academics and independent observers. By revoking Article 4 (Objectives of the Agency) of a law that previously governed JAXA and mandated the development of space programs for "peaceful purposes only," the new legislation demonstrates consistency with Article 2 of the 2008 Basic Space Law. In conformity with the principles laid down in the 1967 Outer Space Treaty JAXA is now free to pursue the non-aggressive military use of space. New legislation is the culmination of a decade-long process that sought ways to "leverage Japan's space development programs and technologies for security purposes, to bolster the nation's defenses in the face of increased tensions in East Asia." In this connection it would also be very important and necessary to create an Asian Space Agency(ASA) for strengthening cooperation within the Asian space community towards joint undertakings.

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The effects of housing poverty on adolescents' subjective well-being (주거빈곤기간이 청소년의 주관적 행복감에 미치는 영향)

  • Lim, Se Hee;Kim, SunSuk
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Child Welfare
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    • no.56
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    • pp.133-164
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    • 2016
  • This study investigated the effect of housing poverty in childhood on adolescents' subjective well-being. Specifically, this study examined whether the major factors that have been known to affect adolescents' well-being (i.e., family relationships, peer relationships, school adjustment etc.) mediated the relationship between housing poverty and adolescents' well-being. And then this study aimed to present an empirical evidence for establishing policies against housing poverty in order to enhance adolescent's subjective happiness. Data were derived from the $1^{st}$, $4^{th}$, and $7^{th}$ surveys of the Korea Welfare Panel Study(KOWEPS), and the sample included. 512 high school children in the $7^{th}$ survey. This study utilized structural equation modeling. Housing poverty was measured by the sub-minimum standard housing condition and the household's burden of housing expenditure. Family relationship, as a mediator, was measured by parental involvement in education, parental monitoring, and family conflicts. Another mediator, school adjustment was measured by school environment and school bonding, and the last mediator, peer relationship was measured by friend attachment and peer attachment. The results showed that housing poverty had significant negative effects on the adolescents' subjective well-being. The sub-minimum standard housing condition with inadequate size and facilities negatively affected adolescents' relationships with family directly and subjective well-being indirectly. In addition, the negative family relationships due to the sub-minimum standard housing condition negatively affected adolescents' subjective well-being through school adjustment and peer relationships. The greater the proportion of income a household spends on housing expenditure, the less likely for adolescents to report positive well-being. The sub-minimum standard housing condition had indirect effects through family relationships, whereas the household's housing expenditure directly affected adolescents' subjective well-being. This study suggested the necessity of interventions to alleviate housing poverty for adolescents' families and lays the groundwork for housing poverty policies in Korea.

Changes in National Health Insurance Medical Expenses and Long-Term Care Costs between the Long-Term Care Group and General Older Adults Group before and after Long-Term Care Use (노인장기요양급여 이용 전후 장기요양군과 일반노인군 간 국민건강보험 및 노인장기요양보험 비용 추이)

  • Seung-Jin Oh;Kang Ju Son
    • Health Policy and Management
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    • v.34 no.3
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    • pp.249-260
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    • 2024
  • Background: The Republic of Korea's aging population escalates medical and long-term care costs. While prior research has suggested that long-term care might reduce these costs, these studies had limitations in their subjects and duration, making it difficult to generalize the results. This study aims to evaluate cost changes between the long-term care group and the general older adults group after addressing these limitations. Methods: A cohort was derived from the 2015 national population using stratified sampling. Subsequently, 15,114 individuals (7,557 in each group) were identified through 1:1 propensity score matching. The study employed a difference-in-differences analysis to explore variances in medical costs and long-term care benefits post-utilization of long-term care services. Results: Compared to the general older adults group, the long-term care group experienced a reduction in monthly per capita total medical costs by 56,459 Korean won (KRW). Although costs at tertiary and general hospitals increased, those related to long-term care hospitals decreased by 90,687 KRW. Including long-term care benefits, overall expenditures increased by 948,038 KRW. Conclusion: The analysis reveals that the long-term care group faces higher medical costs in acute care than the general older adults group, emphasizing a greater need for medical services within this group. To meet the increasing medical demands of the long-term care group, a collaborative strategy linking community resources, healthcare, and long-term care facilities is imperative. Additionally, developing and implementing preventive health habit management strategies for middle-aged and older adults is essential to diminish the future requirement for long-term care.

Econometric Analysis on Factors of Food Demand in the Household : Comparative Study between Korea and Japan (가계 식품수요 요인의 계량분석 - 한국과 일본의 비교 -)

  • Jho, Kwang-Hyun
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Food Culture
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    • v.14 no.4
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    • pp.371-383
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    • 1999
  • This report gave analysis of food demand both in Korea and Japan through introducing the concept of cohort analysis to the conventional demand model. This research was done to clarify the factors which determine food demand of the household. The traits of the new model for demand analysis are to consider and quantify those effects on food demand not only of economic factors such as expenditure and price but also of non-economic factors such as the age and birth cohort of the householder. The results of the analysis can be summarized as follows: 1) The comparison of the item-wise elasticities of food demand demonstrates that the expenditure elasticity is higher in Korea than in Japan and that the expenditure elasticity is -0.1 for cereal and more than 1 for eating-out in both countries. In respect to price elasticity, the absolute values of all the items except alcohol and cooked food are higher in the Korea than in Japan, and especially the price elasticities of beverages, dairy products and fruit are predominantly higher in Japan. In this way, both expenditure and price elasticities of a large number of items are higher in Korea than in Japan, which may be explained from the fact that the level of expenditure is higher in Japan than in Korea. 2) In both of Korea and Japan, as the householder grows older, the expenditure for each item increases and the composition of expenditure changes in such a way that these moves may be regarded as due to the age effect. However, there are both similarities and differences in the details of such moves between Korea and Japan. Those two countries have this trait in common that the young age groups of the householder spend more on dairy products and middle age groups spend more on cake than other age groups. In the Korea, however, there can be seen a certain trend that higher age groups spend more on a large number of items, reflecting the fact that there are more two-generation families in higher age groups. Japan differs from Korea in that expenditure in Japan is diversified, depending upon the age group. For example, in Japan, middle age groups spend more on cake, cereal, high-caloric food like meat and eating-out while older age groups spend more for Japanese-style food like fish/shellfish and vegetable/seaweed, and cooked food. 3) The effect of the birth cohort effect was also demonstrated. The birth cohort effect was introduced under the supposition that the food circumstances under which the householder was born and brought up would determine the current expenditure. Thus, the following was made clear: older generations in both countries placed more emphasis upon stable food in their composition of food consumption; the share of livestock products, oil/fats and externalized food was higher in the food composition of younger generation; differences in food composition among generations were extremely large in Korea while they were relatively small in Japan; and Westernization and externalization of diet made rapid increases simultaneously with generation changes in Korea while they made any gradual increases in Japan during the same time period. 4) The four major factors which impact the long-term change of food demand of the household are expenditure, price, the age of the householder, and the birth cohort of the householder. Investigations were made as to which factor had the largest impact. As a result, it was found that the price effect was the smallest in both countries, and that the relative importance of the factor-by-factor effects differed among the two countries: in Korea the expenditure effect was greater than the effects of age and birth cohort while in Japan the effects of non-economic factors such as the age and birth cohort of householder were greater than those of economic factors such as expenditures.

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Analysis on Factors Influencing Welfare Spending of Local Authority : Implementing the Detailed Data Extracted from the Social Security Information System (지방자치단체 자체 복지사업 지출 영향요인 분석 : 사회보장정보시스템을 통한 접근)

  • Kim, Kyoung-June;Ham, Young-Jin;Lee, Ki-Dong
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.19 no.2
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    • pp.141-156
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    • 2013
  • Researchers in welfare services of local government in Korea have rather been on isolated issues as disables, childcare, aging phenomenon, etc. (Kang, 2004; Jung et al., 2009). Lately, local officials, yet, realize that they need more comprehensive welfare services for all residents, not just for above-mentioned focused groups. Still cases dealt with focused group approach have been a main research stream due to various reason(Jung et al., 2009; Lee, 2009; Jang, 2011). Social Security Information System is an information system that comprehensively manages 292 welfare benefits provided by 17 ministries and 40 thousand welfare services provided by 230 local authorities in Korea. The purpose of the system is to improve efficiency of social welfare delivery process. The study of local government expenditure has been on the rise over the last few decades after the restarting the local autonomy, but these studies have limitations on data collection. Measurement of a local government's welfare efforts(spending) has been primarily on expenditures or budget for an individual, set aside for welfare. This practice of using monetary value for an individual as a "proxy value" for welfare effort(spending) is based on the assumption that expenditure is directly linked to welfare efforts(Lee et al., 2007). This expenditure/budget approach commonly uses total welfare amount or percentage figure as dependent variables (Wildavsky, 1985; Lee et al., 2007; Kang, 2000). However, current practice of using actual amount being used or percentage figure as a dependent variable may have some limitation; since budget or expenditure is greatly influenced by the total budget of a local government, relying on such monetary value may create inflate or deflate the true "welfare effort" (Jang, 2012). In addition, government budget usually contain a large amount of administrative cost, i.e., salary, for local officials, which is highly unrelated to the actual welfare expenditure (Jang, 2011). This paper used local government welfare service data from the detailed data sets linked to the Social Security Information System. The purpose of this paper is to analyze the factors that affect social welfare spending of 230 local authorities in 2012. The paper applied multiple regression based model to analyze the pooled financial data from the system. Based on the regression analysis, the following factors affecting self-funded welfare spending were identified. In our research model, we use the welfare budget/total budget(%) of a local government as a true measurement for a local government's welfare effort(spending). Doing so, we exclude central government subsidies or support being used for local welfare service. It is because central government welfare support does not truly reflect the welfare efforts(spending) of a local. The dependent variable of this paper is the volume of the welfare spending and the independent variables of the model are comprised of three categories, in terms of socio-demographic perspectives, the local economy and the financial capacity of local government. This paper categorized local authorities into 3 groups, districts, and cities and suburb areas. The model used a dummy variable as the control variable (local political factor). This paper demonstrated that the volume of the welfare spending for the welfare services is commonly influenced by the ratio of welfare budget to total local budget, the population of infants, self-reliance ratio and the level of unemployment factor. Interestingly, the influential factors are different by the size of local government. Analysis of determinants of local government self-welfare spending, we found a significant effect of local Gov. Finance characteristic in degree of the local government's financial independence, financial independence rate, rate of social welfare budget, and regional economic in opening-to-application ratio, and sociology of population in rate of infants. The result means that local authorities should have differentiated welfare strategies according to their conditions and circumstances. There is a meaning that this paper has successfully proven the significant factors influencing welfare spending of local government in Korea.

The lesson From Korean War (한국전쟁의 교훈과 대비 -병력수(兵力數) 및 부대수(部隊數)를 중심으로-)

  • Yoon, Il-Young
    • Journal of National Security and Military Science
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    • s.8
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    • pp.49-168
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    • 2010
  • Just before the Korean War, the total number of the North Korean troops was 198,380, while that of the ROK(Republic of Korea) army troops 105,752. That is, the total number of the ROK army troops at that time was 53.3% of the total number of the North Korean army. As of December 2008, the total number of the North Korean troops is estimated to be 1,190,000, while that of the ROK troops is 655,000, so the ROK army maintains 55.04% of the total number of the North Korean troops. If the ROK army continues to reduce its troops according to [Military Reform Plan 2020], the total number of its troops will be 517,000 m 2020. If North Korea maintains the current status(l,190,000 troops), the number of the ROK troops will be 43.4% of the North Korean army. In terms of units, just before the Korean War, the number of the ROK army divisions and regiments was 80% and 44.8% of North Korean army. As of December 2008, North Korea maintains 86 divisions and 69 regiments. Compared to the North Korean army, the ROK army maintains 46 Divisions (53.4% of North Korean army) and 15 regiments (21.3% of North Korean army). If the ROK army continue to reduce the military units according to [Military Reform Plan 2020], the number of ROK army divisions will be 28(13 Active Division, 4 Mobilization Divisions and 11 Local Reserve Divisions), while that of the North Korean army will be 86 in 2020. In that case, the number of divisions of the ROK army will be 32.5% of North Korean army. During the Korean war, North Korea suddenly invaded the Republic of Korea and occupied its capital 3 days after the war began. At that time, the ROK army maintained 80% of army divisions, compared to the North Korean army. The lesson to be learned from this is that, if the ROK army is forced to disperse its divisions because of the simultaneous invasion of North Korea and attack of guerrillas in home front areas, the Republic of Korea can be in a serious military danger, even though it maintains 80% of military divisions of North Korea. If the ROK army promotes the plans in [Military Reform Plan 2020], the number of military units of the ROK army will be 32.5% of that of the North Korean army. This ratio is 2.4 times lower than that of the time when the Korean war began, and in this case, 90% of total military power should be placed in the DMZ area. If 90% of military power is placed in the DMZ area, few troops will be left for the defense of home front. In addition, if the ROK army continues to reduce the troops, it can allow North Korea to have asymmetrical superiority in military force and it will eventually exert negative influence on the stability and peace of the Korean peninsular. On the other hand, it should be reminded that, during the Korean War, the Republic of Korea was attacked by North Korea, though it kept 53.3% of troops, compared to North Korea. It should also be reminded that, as of 2008, the ROK army is defending its territory with the troops 55.04% of North Korea. Moreover, the national defense is assisted by 25,120 troops of the US Forces in Korea. In case the total number of the ROK troops falls below 43.4% of the North Korean army, it may cause social unrest about the national security and may lead North Korea's misjudgement. Besides, according to Lanchester strategy, the party with weaker military power (60% compared to the party with stronger military power) has the 4.1% of winning possibility. Therefore, if we consider the fact that the total number of the ROK army troops is 55.04% of that of the North Korean army, the winning possibility of the ROK army is not higher than 4.1%. If the total number of ROK troops is reduced to 43.4% of that of North Korea, the winning possibility will be lower and the military operations will be in critically difficult situation. [Military Reform Plan 2020] rums at the reduction of troops and units of the ground forces under the policy of 'select few'. However, the problem is that the financial support to achieve this goal is not secured. Therefore, the promotion of [Military Reform Plan 2020] may cause the weakening of military defence power in 2020. Some advanced countries such as Japan, UK, Germany, and France have promoted the policy of 'select few'. However, what is to be noted is that the national security situation of those countries is much different from that of Korea. With the collapse of the Soviet Unions and European communist countries, the military threat of those European advanced countries has almost disappeared. In addition, the threats those advanced countries are facing are not wars in national level, but terrorism in international level. To cope with the threats like terrorism, large scaled army trops would not be necessary. So those advanced European countries can promote the policy of 'select few'. In line with this, those European countries put their focuses on the development of military sections that deal with non-military operations and protection from unspecified enemies. That is, those countries are promoting the policy of 'select few', because they found that the policy is suitable for their national security environment. Moreover, since they are pursuing common interest under the European Union(EU) and they can form an allied force under NATO, it is natural that they are pursing the 'select few' policy. At present, NATO maintains the larger number of troops(2,446,000) than Russia(l,027,000) to prepare for the potential threat of Russia. The situation of japan is also much different from that of Korea. As a country composed of islands, its prime military focus is put on the maritime defense. Accordingly, the development of ground force is given secondary focus. The japanese government promotes the policy to develop technology-concentrated small size navy and air-forces, instead of maintaining large-scaled ground force. In addition, because of the 'Peace Constitution' that was enacted just after the end of World War II, japan cannot maintain troops more than 240,000. With the limited number of troops (240,000), japan has no choice but to promote the policy of 'select few'. However, the situation of Korea is much different from the situations of those countries. The Republic of Korea is facing the threat of the North Korean Army that aims at keeping a large-scale military force. In addition, the countries surrounding Korea are also super powers containing strong military forces. Therefore, to cope with the actual threat of present and unspecified threat of future, the importance of maintaining a carefully calculated large-scale military force cannot be denied. Furthermore, when considering the fact that Korea is in a peninsular, the Republic of Korea must take it into consideration the tradition of continental countries' to maintain large-scale military powers. Since the Korean War, the ROK army has developed the technology-force combined military system, maintaining proper number of troops and units and pursuing 'select few' policy at the same time. This has been promoted with the consideration of military situation in the Koran peninsular and the cooperation of ROK-US combined forces. This kind of unique military system that cannot be found in other countries can be said to be an insightful one for the preparation for the actual threat of North Korea and the conflicts between continental countries and maritime countries. In addition, this kind of technology-force combined military system has enabled us to keep peace in Korea. Therefore, it would be desirable to maintain this technology-force combined military system until the reunification of the Korean peninsular. Furthermore, it is to be pointed out that blindly following the 'select few' policy of advanced countries is not a good option, because it is ignoring the military strategic situation of the Korean peninsular. If the Republic of Korea pursues the reduction of troops and units radically without consideration of the threat of North Korea and surrounding countries, it could be a significant strategic mistake. In addition, the ROK army should keep an eye on the fact the European advanced countries and Japan that are not facing direct military threats are spending more defense expenditures than Korea. If the ROK army reduces military power without proper alternatives, it would exert a negative effect on the stable economic development of Korea and peaceful reunification of the Korean peninsular. Therefore, the desirable option would be to focus on the development of quality of forces, maintaining proper size and number of troops and units under the technology-force combined military system. The tableau above shows that the advanced countries like the UK, Germany, Italy, and Austria spend more defense expenditure per person than the Republic of Korea, although they do not face actual military threats, and that they keep achieving better economic progress than the countries that spend less defense expenditure. Therefore, it would be necessary to adopt the merits of the defense systems of those advanced countries. As we have examined, it would be desirable to maintain the current size and number of troops and units, to promote 'select few' policy with increased defense expenditure, and to strengthen the technology-force combined military system. On the basis of firm national security, the Republic of Korea can develop efficient policies for reunification and prosperity, and jump into the status of advanced countries. Therefore, the plans to reduce troops and units in [Military Reform Plan 2020] should be reexamined. If it is difficult for the ROK army to maintain its size of 655,000 troops because of low birth rate, the plans to establish the prompt mobilization force or to adopt drafting system should be considered for the maintenance of proper number of troops and units. From now on, the Republic of Korean government should develop plans to keep peace as well as to prepare unexpected changes in the Korean peninsular. For the achievement of these missions, some options can be considered. The first one is to maintain the same size of military troops and units as North Korea. The second one is to maintain the same level of military power as North Korea in terms of military force index. The third one is to maintain the same level of military power as North Korea, with the combination of the prompt mobilization force and the troops in active service under the system of technology-force combined military system. At present, it would be not possible for the ROK army to maintain such a large-size military force as North Korea (1,190,000 troops and 86 units). So it would be rational to maintain almost the same level of military force as North Korea with the combination of the troops on the active list and the prompt mobilization forces. In other words, with the combination of the troops in active service (60%) and the prompt mobilization force (40%), the ROK army should develop the strategies to harmonize technology and forces. The Korean government should also be prepared for the strategic flexibility of USFK, the possibility of American policy change about the location of foreign army, radical unexpected changes in North Korea, the emergence of potential threat, surrounding countries' demand for Korean force for the maintenance of regional stability, and demand for international cooperation against terrorism. For this, it is necessary to develop new approaches toward the proper number and size of troops and units. For instance, to prepare for radical unexpected political or military changes in North Korea, the Republic of Korea should have plans to protect a large number of refugees, to control arms and people, to maintain social security, and to keep orders in North Korea. From the experiences of other countries, it is estimated that 115,000 to 230,000 troops, plus ten thousands of police are required to stabilize the North Korean society, in the case radical unexpected military or political change happens in North Korea. In addition, if the Republic of Korea should perform the release of hostages, control of mass destruction weapons, and suppress the internal wars in North Korea, it should send 460,000 troops to North Korea. Moreover, if the Republic of Korea wants to stop the attack of North Korea and flow of refugees in DMZ area, at least 600,000 troops would be required. In sum, even if the ROK army maintains 600,000 troops, it may need additional 460,000 troops to prepare for unexpected radical changes in North Korea. For this, it is necessary to establish the prompt mobilization force whose size and number are almost the same as the troops in active service. In case the ROK army keeps 650,000 troops, the proper number of the prompt mobilization force would be 460,000 to 500,000.

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