• 제목/요약/키워드: exceedance rate

검색결과 32건 처리시간 0.02초

PROBABILISTIC SEISMIC ASSESSMENT OF BASE-ISOLATED NPPS SUBJECTED TO STRONG GROUND MOTIONS OF TOHOKU EARTHQUAKE

  • Ali, Ahmer;Hayah, Nadin Abu;Kim, Dookie;Cho, Ung Gook
    • Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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    • 제46권5호
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    • pp.699-706
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    • 2014
  • The probabilistic seismic performance of a standard Korean nuclear power plant (NPP) with an idealized isolation is investigated in the present work. A probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) of the Wolsong site on the Korean peninsula is performed by considering peak ground acceleration (PGA) as an earthquake intensity measure. A procedure is reported on the categorization and selection of two sets of ground motions of the Tohoku earthquake, i.e. long-period and common as Set A and Set B respectively, for the nonlinear time history response analysis of the base-isolated NPP. Limit state values as multiples of the displacement responses of the NPP base isolation are considered for the fragility estimation. The seismic risk of the NPP is further assessed by incorporation of the rate of frequency exceedance and conditional failure probability curves. Furthermore, this framework attempts to show the unacceptable performance of the isolated NPP in terms of the probabilistic distribution and annual probability of limit states. The comparative results for long and common ground motions are discussed to contribute to the future safety of nuclear facilities against drastic events like Tohoku.

Seismic hazard assessment for two cities in Eastern Iran

  • Farzampour, Alireza;Kamali-Asl, Arash
    • Earthquakes and Structures
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    • 제8권3호
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    • pp.681-697
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    • 2015
  • Iran as one of the countries located on the Alpine-Himalayan seismic belt has recently experienced a few number of catastrophic earthquakes. A well-known index of how buildings are affected by earthquakes is through assessment of probable Peak Ground Acceleration (PGA) and structures' response spectra. In this research, active faults around Kerman and Birjand, two major cities in eastern parts of Iran, have been considered. Seismic catalogues are gathered to categorize effects of surrounding faults on seismicity of the region. These catalogues were further refined with respect to time and space based on Knopoff-Gardner algorithm in order to increase statistical independency of events. Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis (PSHA) has been estimated for each of cities regarding 50, 100, 200 and 500 years of structures' effective life-span. These results subsequently have been compared with Deterministic Seismic Hazard Analysis (DSHA). It has been observed that DSHA not necessarily suggests upper bound of PSHA results. Furthermore, based on spectral Ground Motion Prediction Equations (GMPEs), Uniform Hazard Spectra (UHS) and spectral acceleration were provided for 2% and 10% levels of probability of exceedance. The results show that increasing source-to-site distance leads to spectral acceleration reduction regarding each fault. In addition, the spectral acceleration rate of variation would increase if the source-to-site distance decreases.

청미천 유역에 대한 오염원 영향 분석 (Analysis of the Effect of Water Pollution Source in Cheongmi Stream Basi)

  • 김연수;정태호;황신범;김상호
    • 한국수자원학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 한국수자원학회 2017년도 학술발표회
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    • pp.519-519
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    • 2017
  • 우리나라는 국토의 65%가 산악지형으로서 유역경사가 급한 특성으로 인해, 강우발생 시 유하시간의 감소로 인한 홍수피해와 도시화와 산업화로 인한 수질오염에 매우 취약한 실정이다. 수질관리의 일환으로 환경부에서는 '4대강 물관리종합대책'과 '물환경관리 기본계획' 등을 발표하며, 유역단위의 통합적 물관리를 실시하고 있다. 물환경관리 기본계획의 단위유역 단위의 목표수질 달성을 위한 중요 정책적 실행수단으로서 수질오염총량제가 있으며, 관리대상 오염물질로서는 BOD, T-P만을 대상으로 하고 있다. 하지만 최근 환경부에서는 기존 BOD 중심의 유기물질 관리의 한계 극복과 환경기준 선진화의 일환으로서 수질 목표기준에 TOC를 설정하고 생활환경 기준에 질소의 도입을 추진하는 등의 경향을 볼 때, BOD와 T-P 중심의 목표수질 관리에는 한계가 있다고 판단되며, 이에 따라 현행 관리 대상물질 외 수질항목에 대한 다양한 분석방법이 필요하다. 본 연구에서는 청미천 본류의 환경부 물환경측정망 운영지점과 8개의 지류에 대해 2013년 6월부터 2015년 7월까지 8일 간격 수질 유량 자료에 대한 현장측정 자료를 이용하여 BOD, COD, SS 등 총 6개 수질항목에 대하여 FDC(Flow Duration Curve)와 초과율(Exceedance Rate) 분석을 실시하였다. 분석 결과를 바탕으로 각 지류에서 발생한 오염물질의 농도가 청미천 본류의 분류된 구간과 청미A 단위유역 말단에 미치는 영향에 대하여 분석하였다.

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Seismic risk assessment of intake tower in Korea using updated fragility by Bayesian inference

  • Alam, Jahangir;Kim, Dookie;Choi, Byounghan
    • Structural Engineering and Mechanics
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    • 제69권3호
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    • pp.317-326
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    • 2019
  • This research aims to assess the tight seismic risk curve of the intake tower at Geumgwang reservoir by considering the recorded historical earthquake data in the Korean Peninsula. The seismic fragility, a significant part of risk assessment, is updated by using Bayesian inference to consider the uncertainties and computational efficiency. The reservoir is one of the largest reservoirs in Korea for the supply of agricultural water. The intake tower controls the release of water from the reservoir. The seismic risk assessment of the intake tower plays an important role in the risk management of the reservoir. Site-specific seismic hazard is computed based on the four different seismic source maps of Korea. Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis (PSHA) method is used to estimate the annual exceedance rate of hazard for corresponding Peak Ground Acceleration (PGA). Hazard deaggregation is shown at two customary hazard levels. Multiple dynamic analyses and a nonlinear static pushover analysis are performed for deriving fragility parameters. Thereafter, Bayesian inference with Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) is used to update the fragility parameters by integrating the results of the analyses. This study proves to reduce the uncertainties associated with fragility and risk curve, and to increase significant statistical and computational efficiency. The range of seismic risk curve of the intake tower is extracted for the reservoir site by considering four different source models and updated fragility function, which can be effectively used for the risk management and mitigation of reservoir.

Seismic fragility assessment of steel moment-resisting frames equipped with superelastic viscous dampers

  • Abbas Ghasemi;Fatemeh Arkavazi;Hamzeh Shakib
    • Earthquakes and Structures
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    • 제25권5호
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    • pp.343-358
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    • 2023
  • The superelastic viscous damper (SVD) is a hybrid passive control device comprising a viscoelastic damper and shape memory alloy (SMA) cables connected in series. The SVD is an innovative damper through which a large amount of seismic energy can dissipate. The current study assessed the seismic collapse induced by steel moment-resisting frames (SMRFs) equipped with SVDs and compared them with the performance of special MRFs and buckling restrained brace frames (BRBFs). For this purpose, nonlinear dynamic and incremental dynamic analysis (IDA) were conducted in OpenSees software. Both 5- and 9-story special MRFs, BRBFs, and MRFs equipped with the SVDs were examined. The results indicated that the annual exceedance rate for maximum residual drifts of 0.2% and 0.5% for the BRBFs and MRFs with SVDs, respectively, were considerably less than for SMRFs with reduced-beam section (RBS) connections and that the seismic performances of these structures were enhanced with the use of the BRB and SVD. The probability of collapse due to residual drift in the SVD, BRB, and RBS frames in the 9-story structure was 1.45, 1.75, and 1.05 times greater than for the 5-story frame.

항만정온도 추정방법 개선방안 검토 (Review of the Improvement of the Estimation Method of Harbor Tranquility)

  • 정원무;류경호
    • 한국해안·해양공학회논문집
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    • 제26권6호
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    • pp.397-404
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    • 2014
  • 우리나라의 항만정온도 검토 방법에는 이상 시 항내정온도 검토와 항만가동율 검토 등이 있으며 대부분의 경우에 두 가지 방법을 모두 수행하고 있다. 전자에서는 정온도 기준을 합리적인 근거가 없는 항내파고 절대치로 판단하고 있는 문제점이 있으며 그 실효성에도 의문이 제기된다. 후자에서는 초과출현율 파 또는 장기간의 실측 및 역추산 자료의 파향-주기군을 사용하여 항만가동율을 산정하는 방법 등이 사용되고 있는데 이들 중 초과출현율 파의 사용은 정확도에 문제가 있으므로 장기간 자료를 사용하는 것이 바람직하다. 또한, 현재 적용되는 하역한계파고의 기준은 너무 단순하여 실제 상황을 반영하는데 한계가 있다. 본 논문에서는 부산항 신항에서 관측한 파고 실측자료를 사용하여 현행 항만정온도 및 항만가동율 검토방법의 문제점을 실질적으로 입증하였으며 실측자료의 중요성을 강조하였다. 향후 우리나라 주요 항만 내 외에서 장기간의 실측 자료를 확보함으로써 개선된 항만정온도 기준을 마련하는데 적극적으로 활용하는 것이 바람직하다.

확률분포를 이용한 지속가능한 빗물이용시설의 저류용량 산정 (Estimation of Storage Capacity for Sustainable Rainwater Harvesting System with Probability Distribution)

  • 강원구;정은성;이길성;오진호
    • 한국물환경학회지
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    • 제26권5호
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    • pp.740-746
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    • 2010
  • Rainwater has been used in many countries as a way of minimizing water availability problems. Rainwater harvesting system (RHS) has been successfully implemented as alternative water supply sources even in Korea. Although RHS is an effective alternative to water supply, its efficiency is often heavily influenced by temporal distribution of rainfall. Since natural precipitation is a random process and has probabilistic characteristics, it will be more appropriate to describe these probabilistic features of rainfall and its relationship with design storage capacity as well as supply deficit of RHS. This study presents the methodology to establish the relationships between storage capacities and deficit rates using probability distributions. In this study, the real three-story building was considered and nine scenaries were developed because the daily water usage pattern of the study one was not identified. GEV, Gumbel and the generalized logistic distribution ware selected according to the results of Kolmogorov-Smirnov test and Chi-Squared test. As a result, a set of curves describing the relationships under different exceedance probabilities were generated as references to RHS storage design. In case of the study building, the deficit rate becomes larger as return period increases and will not increase any more if the storage capacity becomes the appropriate quantity. The uncertainties between design storage and the deficit can be more understood through this study on the probabilistic relationships between storage capacities and deficit rates.

위험도 기반 지역별 정규 CSOs 곡선 설계에 관한 연구 (A Study on the Risk - based Local Normal CSOs Curve Designs)

  • 조덕준
    • 한국수자원학회논문집
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    • 제39권7호
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    • pp.575-581
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    • 2006
  • 본 연구에서는 강우로 인한 유출 유량의 수질 조절 시스템의 경제적인 설계절차를 제시하였다. 유출수의 수질 조절 시스템 계획을 위해서는 전 기간치의 국지 연속강우기록에 대한 강우-유출 과정의 모의를 하여야 한다. 본 연구에서 강우의 확률분포는 지수감소함수를 따른다고 가정하여 적용함으로서 비 초과확률 분포를 설명할 수 있는 정규곡선을 유도하였다. 또한 유출수의 수질 조절시스템의 저류용량 및 유량 결정을 위하여 월류 위험도를 기반으로 최적곡선을 유도하였다. 최적 저류용량 및 유량의 적용성을 강우 유출 모형인 ILLUDAS에 의한 분석결과와 비교하였으며 본 연구에서와 같이 최적 CSOs(Combined Sewer Overflows)을 지역별로 유도하게 되면 강우로 인한 유출 유량의 수질 조절시스템을 적은 노력과 시간으로 위험도를 기반으로 계획에 이용 될 수 있을 것으로 기대된다.

영산강수계 소하천의 오염부하량 평가에 관한 연구 (A Study on the Assessment of Pollution Loads at Small Stream in Yeongsan River Watershed)

  • 하돈우;심홍빈;김해성;김윤수;조소현;송창수;강태구;김영석
    • 한국물환경학회지
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    • 제34권1호
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    • pp.1-9
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    • 2018
  • In this study, the load of the river was calculated by using the actual data of the Yeong-bon C1, Yeong-bon C2, Yeong-bon C3 monitoring points of the Yeong-san river watershed to determine the excess. As a result, the BOD is 75.83 % at the Yeong-bon C1 and the five-year average value is higher than at other points. The Yeong-bon C3 was 72.15 % and Yeong-bon C2 was analyzed as 68.78 %. The five-year average of the T-P was 71.95 % for the Yeong-bon C2 and 69.86 % for the Yeong-bon C3 and 69.16 % for Yeong-bon C1; these levels exceeded the target water quality standards of 50 %. As a result of analyzing the pollutant load, we found that the Yeong-bon C1 has been highly affected by the nonpoint pollution source because the excess rate is high in the upper section of the flow rate. The Yeong-bon C2 showed a high excess rate in the lower part of the flow rate, and it was estimated that the influence of the point pollution source was large. The excess rate of the Yeong-bon C3 is small in the interval deviation, and it was evaluated as being affected by both point and non-point pollution sources. The TMDL monitoring network data were used to estimate the exceed ratio for the target water quality assessment, and the implementation evaluation was made by the flow exceedance probability interval to analyze the monitoring data so that the data could be utilized according to the purpose of the measurement network.

The seismic reliability of two connected SMRF structures

  • Aval, Seyed Bahram Beheshti;Farrokhi, Amir;Fallah, Ahmad;Tsouvalas, Apostolos
    • Earthquakes and Structures
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    • 제13권2호
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    • pp.151-164
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    • 2017
  • This article aims to investigate the possible retrofitting of a deficient building with soft story failure mode by connecting it to an adjacent building which is designed based on current code with friction dampers at all floors. Low cost and high performance reliability along with significant energy dissipation pertaining to stable hysteretic loops may be considered in order to choose the proper damper for connecting adjacent buildings. After connecting two neighbouring floors by friction dampers, the sliding forces of dampers at various stories are set in two arrangements: uniform sliding force and then variable sliding force. In order to account for the stochastic nature of the seismic events, incremental dynamic analyses are employed prior and after the installation of the friction dampers at the various floors. Based on these results, fragility curves and mean annual rate of exceedance of serviceability and ultimate limit states are obtained. The results of this study show that the collapse mode of the deficient building can affect the optimum arrangement of sliding forces of friction dampers at Collapse Prevention (CP) performance level. In particular, the Immediate Occupancy (IO) performance level is not tangible to the sliding force arrangement and it depends solely on sliding force value. Generally it can be claimed that this rehabilitation scheme can turn the challenge of pounding two adjacent buildings into the opportunity of dissipating a large amount of the seismic input energy by the friction dampers, thus improving significantly the poor seismic performance of the deficient structure.