• Title/Summary/Keyword: event prediction

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Prediction of Damages and Evacuation Strategies for Gas Leaks from Chlorine Transport Vehicles (염소 운송차량 가스누출시 피해예측 및 대피방안)

  • Yang, Yong-Ho;Kong, Ha-Sung
    • The Journal of the Convergence on Culture Technology
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    • v.10 no.2
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    • pp.407-417
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    • 2024
  • The objective of this study is to predict and reduce potential damage caused by chlorine gas leaks, a hazardous material, when vehicles transporting it overturn due to accidents or other incidents. The goal is to forecast the anticipated damages caused by chlorine toxicity levels (ppm) and to design effective response strategies for mitigating them. To predict potential damages, we conducted quantitative assessments using the ALOHA program to calculate the toxic effects (ppm) and damage distances resulting from chlorine leaks, taking into account potential negligence of drivers during transportation. The extent of damage from toxic gas leaks is influenced by various factors, including the amount of the leaked hazardous material and the meteorological conditions at the time of the leak. Therefore, a comprehensive analysis of damage distances was conducted by examining various scenarios that involved variations in the amount of leakage and weather conditions. Under intermediate conditions (leakage quantity: 5 tons, wind speed: 3 m/s, atmospheric stability: D), the estimated distance for exceeding the AEGL-2 level of 2 ppm was calculated to be 9 km. This concentration poses a high risk of respiratory disturbance and potential human casualties, comparable to the toxicity of hydrogen chloride. In particular, leaks in urban areas can lead to significant loss of life. In the event of a leakage incident, we proposed a plan to minimize damage by implementing appropriate response strategies based on the location and amount of the leak when an accident occurs.

Association between Initial Chest CT or Clinical Features and Clinical Course in Patients with Coronavirus Disease 2019 Pneumonia

  • Zhe Liu;Chao Jin;Carol C. Wu;Ting Liang;Huifang Zhao;Yan Wang;Zekun Wang;Fen Li;Jie Zhou;Shubo Cai;Lingxia Zeng;Jian Yang
    • Korean Journal of Radiology
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    • v.21 no.6
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    • pp.736-745
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    • 2020
  • Objective: To identify the initial chest computed tomography (CT) findings and clinical characteristics associated with the course of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pneumonia. Materials and Methods: Baseline CT scans and clinical and laboratory data of 72 patients admitted with COVID-19 pneumonia (39 men, 46.2 ± 15.9 years) were retrospectively analyzed. Baseline CT findings including lobar distribution, presence of ground glass opacities, consolidation, linear opacities, and lung severity score were evaluated. The outcome event was recovery with hospital discharge. The time from symptom onset to discharge or the end of follow-up (for those remained hospitalized) was recorded. Data were censored in events such as death or discharge without recovery. Multivariable Cox proportional hazard regression was used to explore the association between initial CT, clinical or laboratory findings, and discharge with recovery, whereby hazard ratio (HR) values < 1 indicated a lower rate of discharge at four weeks and longer time until discharge. Results: Thirty-two patients recovered and were discharged during the study period with a median length of admission of 16 days (range, 9 to 25 days), while the rest remained hospitalized at the end of this study (median, 17.5 days; range, 4 to 27 days). None died during the study period. After controlling for age, onset time, lesion characteristics, number of lung lobes affected, and bilateral involvement, the lung severity score on baseline CT (> 4 vs. ≤ 4 [reference]: adjusted HR = 0.41 [95% confidence interval, CI = 0.18-0.92], p = 0.031) and initial lymphocyte count (reduced vs. normal or elevated [reference]: adjusted HR = 0.14 [95% CI = 0.03-0.60], p = 0.008) were two significant independent factors that influenced recovery and discharge. Conclusion: Lung severity score > 4 and reduced lymphocyte count at initial evaluation were independently associated with a significantly lower rate of recovery and discharge and extended hospitalization in patients admitted for COVID-19 pneumonia.

Clinical Value of Cardiovascular Calcifications on Non-Enhanced, Non-ECG-Gated Chest CT (비 조영증강 비 심전도동기 흉부 CT에서 발견되는 심혈관계 석회화의 임상적 가치)

  • Tae Seop Choi;Hwan Seok Yong;Cherry Kim;Young Joo Suh
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Radiology
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    • v.81 no.2
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    • pp.324-336
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    • 2020
  • Cardiovascular calcifications can occur in various cardiovascular diseases and can serve as a biomarker for cardiovascular event prediction. Advances in CT have enabled evaluation of calcifications in cardiovascular structures not only on ECG-gated CT but also on non-ECG-gated CT. Therefore, many studies have been conducted on the clinical relevance of cardiovascular calcifications in patients. In this study, we divided cardiovascular calcifications into three classes, i.e., coronary artery, thoracic aorta, and cardiac valve calcifications, which are closely associated with cardiovascular events. Further, we briefly described pericardial calcifications, which can be found incidentally. Since the start of lung cancer screening in Korea in the second half of 2019, the number of non-enhanced, non-ECG-gated, low-dose chest CT has been increasing, and the number of incidentally found cardiovascular calcifications has also been increasing. Therefore, understanding the relevance of cardiovascular calcifications on non-enhanced, non-ECG-gated, low-dose chest CT and their proper reporting are important for radiologists.

Multi-task Learning Based Tropical Cyclone Intensity Monitoring and Forecasting through Fusion of Geostationary Satellite Data and Numerical Forecasting Model Output (정지궤도 기상위성 및 수치예보모델 융합을 통한 Multi-task Learning 기반 태풍 강도 실시간 추정 및 예측)

  • Lee, Juhyun;Yoo, Cheolhee;Im, Jungho;Shin, Yeji;Cho, Dongjin
    • Korean Journal of Remote Sensing
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    • v.36 no.5_3
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    • pp.1037-1051
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    • 2020
  • The accurate monitoring and forecasting of the intensity of tropical cyclones (TCs) are able to effectively reduce the overall costs of disaster management. In this study, we proposed a multi-task learning (MTL) based deep learning model for real-time TC intensity estimation and forecasting with the lead time of 6-12 hours following the event, based on the fusion of geostationary satellite images and numerical forecast model output. A total of 142 TCs which developed in the Northwest Pacific from 2011 to 2016 were used in this study. The Communications system, the Ocean and Meteorological Satellite (COMS) Meteorological Imager (MI) data were used to extract the images of typhoons, and the Climate Forecast System version 2 (CFSv2) provided by the National Center of Environmental Prediction (NCEP) was employed to extract air and ocean forecasting data. This study suggested two schemes with different input variables to the MTL models. Scheme 1 used only satellite-based input data while scheme 2 used both satellite images and numerical forecast modeling. As a result of real-time TC intensity estimation, Both schemes exhibited similar performance. For TC intensity forecasting with the lead time of 6 and 12 hours, scheme 2 improved the performance by 13% and 16%, respectively, in terms of the root mean squared error (RMSE) when compared to scheme 1. Relative root mean squared errors(rRMSE) for most intensity levels were lessthan 30%. The lower mean absolute error (MAE) and RMSE were found for the lower intensity levels of TCs. In the test results of the typhoon HALONG in 2014, scheme 1 tended to overestimate the intensity by about 20 kts at the early development stage. Scheme 2 slightly reduced the error, resulting in an overestimation by about 5 kts. The MTL models reduced the computational cost about 300% when compared to the single-tasking model, which suggested the feasibility of the rapid production of TC intensity forecasts.

Evolutionary Explanation for Beauveria bassiana Being a Potent Biological Control Agent Against Agricultural Pests

  • Han, Jae-Gu
    • 한국균학회소식:학술대회논문집
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    • 2014.05a
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    • pp.27-28
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    • 2014
  • Beauveria bassiana (Cordycipitaceae, Hypocreales, Ascomycota) is an anamorphic fungus having a potential to be used as a biological control agent because it parasitizes a wide range of arthropod hosts including termites, aphids, beetles and many other insects. A number of bioactive secondary metabolites (SMs) have been isolated from B. bassiana and functionally verified. Among them, beauvericin and bassianolide are cyclic depsipeptides with antibiotic and insecticidal effects belonging to the enniatin family. Non-ribosomal peptide synthetases (NRPSs) play a crucial role in the synthesis of these secondary metabolites. NRPSs are modularly organized multienzyme complexes in which each module is responsible for the elongation of proteinogenic and non-protein amino acids, as well as carboxyl and hydroxyacids. A minimum of three domains are necessary for one NRPS elongation module: an adenylation (A) domain for substrate recognition and activation; a tholation (T) domain that tethers the growing peptide chain and the incoming aminoacyl unit; and a condensation (C) domain to catalyze peptide bond formation. Some of the optional domains include epimerization (E), heterocyclization (Cy) and oxidation (Ox) domains, which may modify the enzyme-bound precursors or intermediates. In the present study, we analyzed genomes of B. bassiana and its allied species in Hypocreales to verify the distribution of NRPS-encoding genes involving biosynthesis of beauvericin and bassianolide, and to unveil the evolutionary processes of the gene clusters. Initially, we retrieved completely or partially assembled genomic sequences of fungal species belonging to Hypocreales from public databases. SM biosynthesizing genes were predicted from the selected genomes using antiSMASH program. Adenylation (A) domains were extracted from the predicted NRPS, NRPS-like and NRPS-PKS hybrid genes, and used them to construct a phylogenetic tree. Based on the preliminary results of SM biosynthetic gene prediction in B. bassiana, we analyzed the conserved gene orders of beauvericin and bassianolide biosynthetic gene clusters among the hypocrealean fungi. Reciprocal best blast hit (RBH) approach was performed to identify the regions orthologous to the biosynthetic gene cluster in the selected fungal genomes. A clear recombination pattern was recognized in the inferred A-domain tree in which A-domains in the 1st and 2nd modules of beauvericin and bassianolide synthetases were grouped in CYCLO and EAS clades, respectively, suggesting that two modules of each synthetase have evolved independently. In addition, inferred topologies were congruent with the species phylogeny of Cordycipitaceae, indicating that the gene fusion event have occurred before the species divergence. Beauvericin and bassianolide synthetases turned out to possess identical domain organization as C-A-T-C-A-NM-T-T-C. We also predicted precursors of beauvericin and bassianolide synthetases based on the extracted signature residues in A-domain core motifs. The result showed that the A-domains in the 1st module of both synthetases select D-2-hydroxyisovalerate (D-Hiv), while A-domains in the 2nd modules specifically activate L-phenylalanine (Phe) in beauvericin synthetase and leucine (Leu) in bassianolide synthetase. antiSMASH ver. 2.0 predicted 15 genes in the beauvericin biosynthetic gene cluster of the B. bassiana genome dispersed across a total length of approximately 50kb. The beauvericin biosynthetic gene cluster contains beauvericin synthetase as well as kivr gene encoding NADPH-dependent ketoisovalerate reductase which is necessary to convert 2-ketoisovalarate to D-Hiv and a gene encoding a putative Gal4-like transcriptional regulator. Our syntenic comparison showed that species in Cordycipitaceae have almost conserved beauvericin biosynthetic gene cluster although the gene order and direction were sometimes variable. It is intriguing that there is no region orthologous to beauvericin synthetase gene in Cordyceps militaris genome. It is likely that beauvericin synthetase was present in common ancestor of Cordycipitaceae but selective gene loss has occurred in several species including C. militaris. Putative bassianolide biosynthetic gene cluster consisted of 16 genes including bassianolide synthetase, cytochrome P450 monooxygenase, and putative Gal4-like transcriptional regulator genes. Our synteny analysis found that only B. bassiana possessed a bassianolide synthetase gene among the studied fungi. This result is consistent with the groupings in A-domain tree in which bassianolide synthetase gene found in B. bassiana was not grouped with NRPS genes predicted in other species. We hypothesized that bassianolide biosynthesizing cluster genes in B. bassiana are possibly acquired by horizontal gene transfer (HGT) from distantly related fungi. The present study showed that B. bassiana is the only species capable of producing both beauvericin and bassianolide. This property led to B. bassiana infect multiple hosts and to be a potential biological control agent against agricultural pests.

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정지궤도 통신해양기상위성의 기상분야 요구사항에 관하여

  • Ahn, Myung-Hwan;Kim, Kum-Lan
    • Atmosphere
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    • v.12 no.4
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    • pp.20-42
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    • 2002
  • Based on the "Mid to Long Term Plan for Space Development", a project to launch COMeS (Communication, Oceanography, and Meteorological Satellite) into the geostationary orbit is undergoing. Accordingly, KMA (Korea Meteorological Administration) has defined the meteorological missions and prepared the user requirements to fulfill the missions. To make a realistic user requirements, we prepared a first draft based on the ideal meteorological products derivable from a geostationary platform and sent the RFI (request for information) to the sensor manufacturers. Based on the responses to the RFI and other considerations, we revised the user requirement to be a realistic plan for the 2008 launch of the satellite. This manuscript introduces the revised user requirements briefly. The major mission defined in the revised user requirement is the augmentation of the detection and prediction ability of the severe weather phenomena, especially around the Korean Peninsula. The required payload is an enhanced Imager, which includes the major observation channels of the current geostationary sounder. To derive the required meteorological products from the Imager, at least 12 channels are required with the optimum of 16 channels. The minimum 12 channels are 6 wavelength bands used for current geostationary satellite, and additional channels in two visible bands, a near infrared band, two water vapor bands and one ozone absorption band. From these enhanced channel observation, we are going to derive and utilize the information of water vapor, stability index, wind field, and analysis of special weather phenomena such as the yellow sand event in addition to the standard derived products from the current geostationary Imager data. For a better temporal coverage, the Imager is required to acquire the full disk data within 15 minutes and to have the rapid scan mode for the limited area coverage. The required thresholds of spatial resolutions are 1 km and 2 km for visible and infrared channels, respectively, while the target resolutions are 0.5 km and 1 km.

Study on the Fire Risk Prediction Assessment due to Deterioration contact of combustible cables in Underground Common Utility Tunnels (지하공동구내 가연성케이블의 열화접촉으로 인한 화재위험성 예측평가)

  • Ko, Jaesun
    • Journal of the Society of Disaster Information
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    • v.11 no.1
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    • pp.135-147
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    • 2015
  • Recent underground common utility tunnels are underground facilities for jointly accommodating more than 2 kinds of air-conditioning and heating facilities, vacuum dust collector, information processing cables as well as electricity, telecommunications, waterworks, city gas, sewerage system required when citizens live their daily lives and facilities responsible for the central function of the country but it is difficult to cope with fire accidents quickly and hard to enter into common utility tunnels to extinguish a fire due to toxic gases and smoke generated when various cables are burnt. Thus, in the event of a fire, not only the nerve center of the country is paralyzed such as significant property damage and loss of communication etc. but citizen inconveniences are caused. Therefore, noticing that most fires break out by a short circuit due to electrical works and degradation contact due to combustible cables as the main causes of fires in domestic and foreign common utility tunnels fire cases that have occurred so far, the purpose of this paper is to scientifically analyze the behavior of a fire by producing the model of actual common utility tunnels and reproducing the fire. A fire experiment was conducted in a state that line type fixed temperature detector, fire door, connection deluge set and ventilation equipment are installed in underground common utility tunnels and transmission power distribution cables are coated with fire proof paints in a certain section and heating pipes are fire proof covered. As a result, in the case of Type II, the maximum temperature was measured as $932^{\circ}C$ and line type fixed temperature detector displayed the fire location exactly in the receiver at a constant temperature. And transmission power distribution cables painted with fire proof paints in a certain section, the case of Type III, were found not to be fire resistant and fire proof covered heating pipes to be fire resistant for about 30 minutes. Also, fire simulation was carried out by entering fire load during a real fire test and as a result, the maximum temperature is $943^{\circ}C$, almost identical with $932^{\circ}C$ during a real fire test. Therefore, it is considered that fire behaviour can be predicted by conducting fire simulation only with common utility tunnels fire load and result values of heat release rate, height of the smoke layer, concentration of O2, CO, CO2 etc. obtained by simulation are determined to be applied as the values during a real fire experiment. In the future, it is expected that more reliable information on domestic underground common utility tunnels fire accidents can be provided and it will contribute to construction and maintenance repair effectively and systematically by analyzing and accumulating experimental data on domestic underground common utility tunnels fire accidents built in this study and fire cases continuously every year and complementing laws and regulations and administration manuals etc.

Spatial Patterns and Temporal Variability of the Haines Index related to the Wildland Fire Growth Potential over the Korean Peninsula (한반도 산불 확장 잠재도와 관련된 Haines Index의 시.공간적 특징)

  • Choi Cwang-Yong;Kim Jun-Su;Won Myoung-Soo
    • Journal of the Korean Geographical Society
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    • v.41 no.2 s.113
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    • pp.168-187
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    • 2006
  • Windy meteorological conditions and dried fire fuels due to higher atmospheric instability and dryness in the lower troposphere can exacerbate fire controls and result in more losses of forest resources and residential properties due to enhanced large wildland fires. Long-term (1979-2005) climatology of the Haines Index reconstructed in this study reveals that spatial patterns and intra-annual variability of the atmospheric instability and dryness in the lower troposphere affect the frequency of wildland fire incidences over the Korean Peninsula. Exponential regression models verify that daily high Haines Index and its monthly frequency has statistically significant correlations with the frequency of the wildland fire occurrences during the fire season (December-April) in South Korea. According to the climatic maps of the Haines Index created by the Geographic Information System (GIS) using the Digital Elevation Model (DEM), the lowlands below 500m from the mean sea level in the northwestern regions of the Korean Peninsula demonstrates the high frequency of the Haines Index equal to or greater than five in April and May. The annual frequency of the high Haines Index represents an increasing trend across the Korean Peninsula since the mid-1990s, particularly in Gyeongsangbuk-do and along the eastern coastal areas. The composite of synoptic weather maps at 500hPa for extreme events, in which the high Haines Index lasted for several days consecutively, illustrates that the cold low pressure system developed around the Sea of Okhotsk in the extreme event period enhances the pressure gradient and westerly wind speed over the Korean Peninsula. These results demonstrate the need for further consideration of the spatial-temporal characteristics of vertical atmospheric components, such as atmospheric instability and dryness, in the current Korean fire prediction system.

A Study on Particulate Matter Forecasting Improvement by using Asian Dust Emissions in East Asia (황사배출량을 적용한 동아시아 미세먼지 예보 개선 연구)

  • Choi, Daeryun;Yun, Huiyoung;Chang, Limseok;Lee, Jaebum;Lee, Younghee;Myoung, Jisu;Kim, Taehee;Koo, Younseo
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Urban Environment
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    • v.18 no.4
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    • pp.531-546
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    • 2018
  • Air quality forecasting system with Asian dust emissions was developed in East Asia, and $PM_{10}$ forecasting performance of chemical transport model with Asian dust emissions was validated and evaluated. The chemical transport model (CTM) with Asian dust emission was found to supplement $PM_{10}$ concentrations that had been under-estimated in China regions and improved statistics for performance of CTM, although the model were overestimated during some periods in China. In Korea, the prediction model adequately simulated inflow of Asian dust events on February 22~24 and March 16~17, but the model is found to be overestimated during no Asian dust event periods on April. However, the model supplemented $PM_{10}$ concentrations, which was underestimated in most regions in Korea and the statistics for performance of the models were improved. The $PM_{10}$ forecasting performance of air quality forecasting model with Asian dust emissions tends to improve POD (Probability of Detection) compared to basic model without Asian dust emissions, but A (Accuracy) has shown similar or decreased, and FAR (False Alarms) have increased during 2017.Therefore, the developed air quality forecasting model with Asian dust emission was not proposed as a representative $PM_{10}$ forecast model in South Korea.

Extraction of Water Body Area using Micro Satellite SAR: A Case Study of the Daecheng Dam of South korea (초소형 SAR 위성을 활용한 수체면적 추출: 대청댐 유역 대상)

  • PARK, Jongsoo;KANG, Ki-Mook;HWANG, Eui-Ho
    • Journal of the Korean Association of Geographic Information Studies
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    • v.24 no.4
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    • pp.41-54
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    • 2021
  • It is very essential to estimate the water body area using remote exploration for water resource management, analysis and prediction of water disaster damage. Hydrophysical detection using satellites has been mainly performed on large satellites equipped with optical and SAR sensors. However, due to the long repeat cycle, there is a limitation that timely utilization is impossible in the event of a disaster/disaster. With the recent active development of Micro satellites, it has served as an opportunity to overcome the limitations of time resolution centered on existing large satellites. The Micro satellites currently in active operation are ICEYE in Finland and Capella satellites in the United States, and are operated in the form of clusters for earth observation purposes. Due to clustering operation, it has a short revisit cycle and high resolution and has the advantage of being able to observe regardless of weather or day and night with the SAR sensor mounted. In this study, the operation status and characteristics of micro satellites were described, and the water area estimation technology optimized for micro SAR satellite images was applied to the Daecheong Dam basin on the Korean Peninsula. In addition, accuracy verification was performed based on the reference value of the water generated from the optical satellite Sentinel-2 satellite as a reference. In the case of the Capella satellite, the smallest difference in area was shown, and it was confirmed that all three images showed high correlation. Through the results of this study, it was confirmed that despite the low NESZ of Micro satellites, it is possible to estimate the water area, and it is believed that the limitations of water resource/water disaster monitoring using existing large SAR satellites can be overcome.