• Journal of Korean Society of Coastal and Ocean Engineers
• /
• v.31 no.5
• /
• pp.241-252
• /
• 2019

To choose appropriate countermeasures against potential coastal disaster damages caused by a storm surge, it is necessary to estimate the frequency of storm surge heights estimation. As the coastal populations size in the past was small, the tropical cyclone risk model (TCRM) was used to generate 176,689 synthetic typhoons. In simulation, historical paths and central pressures were incorporated as a probability density function. Moreover, to consider the typhoon characteristics that resurfaced or decayed after landfall on the southeast coast of China, incorporated the shift angle of the historical typhoon as a function of the probability density function and applied it as a damping parameter. Thus, the passing rate of typhoons moving from the southeast coast of China to the south coast has improved. The characteristics of the typhoon were analyzed from the historical typhoon information using correlations between the central pressure, maximum wind speed ($V_{max}$) and the maximum wind speed radius ($R_{max}$); it was then applied to synthetic typhoons. The storm surges were calculated using the ADCIRC model, considering both tidal and synthetic typhoons using automated Perl script. The storm surges caused by the probabilistic synthetic typhoons appear similar to the recorded storm surges, therefore this proposed scheme can be applied to the storm surge simulations. Based on these results, extreme values were calculated using the Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) method, and as a result, the 100-year return period storm surge was found to be satisfactory compared with the calculated empirical simulation value. The method proposed in this study can be applied to estimate the frequency of storm surges in coastal areas.

• Tunnel and Underground Space
• /
• v.16 no.5 s.64
• /
• pp.357-367
• /
• 2006

Recently, as the construction of new railway and the relocation of existing line increase, tunnel structures grow longer. The railway fire accidents in long tunnel bring large damages of human life and disaster. The interest of safety in long tunnel have a growing and the safety standard of long tunnel is tightening. For that reason, at the planning of long tunnel, the optimum design of safety facility in long tunnel for minimizing the risks and satisfying the safety standard is needed. For the reasonable design of long railway tunnel considering high safety, qualitative estimation for tunnel safety is required. In this study, QRA (Quantitative Risk Assessment) technique is applied to design of long railway tunnel for assuring the safety function and estimating the risk of safety. The case study for safety design in long railway tunnel is tarried out to verifying the QRA technique for two railway tunnels. Thus, the inclined and vertical shaft for escape way and safety facilities in long tunnel are planned, and the risks of tunnel safety for each case are estimated quantitatively.

• Journal of the Korean Association of Geographic Information Studies
• /
• v.10 no.1
• /
• pp.47-59
• /
• 2007

Efficiency and limitations of HAZUS-MH, a GIS based systematic and informative system developed by FEMA and NIBS for natural hazard loss estimations, are discussed by means of a pilot study in the Korean Peninsula. Gyeongsang-do has been selected for the test after careful reviews of previous studies including historical and modern seismicity in the peninsula. A ShakeMap for the selected scenario earthquake with magnitude 6.7 in Gyeongju area is prepared. Then, any losses due to the scenario event have been estimated using HAZUS. Results of the pilot test show that the study area may experience significant physical, economic, and social damages. Detailed study in the future will provide efficient and crucial information to the decision makers and emergency agents to mitigate any disaster posed by natural hazards.

• Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
• /
• v.12 no.1
• /
• pp.36-44
• /
• 2010

In order to rehabilitate forest sites damaged by wildfire via natural or artificial restoration, it is important to determine right tree species, which can acclimate to biogeoclimatic environment at the sites. The objectives of this study were to develop site index equation of different tree species for estimating forest productivity and to provide information on species selection for post-wildfire restoration. Site index equation was developed based on environmental information from wildfire damaged areas in Gangneung, Goseong, Donghae, and Samcheok, where were located in east coastal areas of South Korea. Despite the small numbers (4~5) of environmental variables used for the development of the site index equations, statistical analysis (e.g. mean difference, standard deviation of difference, and standard error of difference) showed relatively low bias and variation, suggesting that those equations can provide relatively high capability of estimation and practical applicability with high effectiveness. The small numbers of the variables enabled the model to be applied in a wide range of usages including determination of appropriate tree species for post-wildfire restoration. The estimation of forest site productivity showed the possibility of large distribution in east coastal region as the best site for Korean ash (Fraxinus rhynchophylla) and original oak (Quercus variabilis) that can be used for firebreak in the region. These results imply that damages by forest fire can be reduced significantly by replacing existing pure coniferous forests in the area with ones dominated by broad-leaved deciduous stands, which can play an important role as fire break and/or prevent a transition from surface fire to crown fire.

• Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
• /
• v.21 no.1
• /
• pp.55-64
• /
• 2019

The flowering seasons can be advanced due to climate change that would cause an abnormally warm winter. Such warm winter would increase the frequency of crop damages resulted from sudden occurrences of low temperature before and after the vegetative growth stages, e.g., the period from germination to flowering. The degree and pattern of freezing damage would differ by the development stage of each individual fruit tree even in an orchard. A critical temperature, e.g., killing temperature, has been used to predict freeze damage by low-temperature conditions under the assumption that such damage would be associated with the development stage of a fruit flower bud. However, it would be challenging to apply the critical temperature to a region where spatial variation in temperature would be considerably high. In the present study, a phenological model was used to estimate major bud development stages, which would be useful for prediction of regional risks for the freeze damages. We also derived a linear function to calculate a probabilistic freeze risk in spring, which can quantitatively evaluate the risk level based solely on forecasted weather data. We calculated the dates of freeze damage occurrences and spatial risk distribution according to main production areas by applying the spring freeze risk function to apple, peach, and pear crops in 2018. It was predicted that the most extensive low-temperature associated freeze damage could have occurred on April 8. It was also found that the risk function was useful to identify the main production areas where the greatest damage to a given crop could occur. These results suggest that the freezing damage associated with the occurrence of low-temperature events could decrease providing early warning for growers to respond abnormal weather conditions for their farm.

• Journal of Korean Society of Coastal and Ocean Engineers
• /
• v.25 no.5
• /
• pp.335-347
• /
• 2013

In February 2008, high storm waves due to a developed atmospheric low pressure system propagating from the west off Hokkaido, Japan, to the south and southwest throughout the East Sea (ES) caused extensive damages along the central coast of Japan and along the east coast of Korea. This study consists of two parts. In the first part, we estimate extreme storm wave characteristics in the Toyama Bay where heavy coastal damages occurred, using a non-hydrostatic meteorological model and a spectral wave model by considering the extreme conditions for two factors for wind wave growth, such as wind intensity and duration. The estimated extreme significant wave height and corresponding wave period were 6.78 m and 18.28 sec, respectively, at the Fushiki Toyama. In the second part, we perform numerical experiments on wave-structure interaction in the Fushiki Port, Toyama Bay, where the long North-Breakwater was heavily damaged by the storm waves in February 2008. The experiments are conducted using a non-linear shallow-water equation model with adaptive mesh refinement (AMR) and wet-dry scheme. The estimated extreme storm waves of 6.78 m and 18.28 sec are used for incident wave profile. The results show that the Fushiki Port would be overtopped and flooded by extreme storm waves if the North-Breakwater does not function properly after being damaged. Also the storm waves would overtop seawalls and sidewalls of the Manyou Pier behind the North-Breakwater. The results also depict that refined meshes by AMR method with wet-dry scheme applied capture the coastline and coastal structure well while keeping the computational load efficiently.

• Spatial Information Research
• /
• v.19 no.5
• /
• pp.1-11
• /
• 2011

This study mainly focused on the method of accurately extracting damage information in the im agery change detection process using the constructed high resolution aerial im agery. Bongwha-gun in Gyungsangbuk-do which had been severely damaged from a localized torrential downpour at the end of July, 2008 was selected as study area. This study utilized aerial im agery having photographing scale of 30cm gray image of pre-disaster and 40cm color image of post-disaster. In order to correct errors from the differences of the image resolution of pre-/post-disaster and time series, the prelim inary phase of image processing techniques such as normalizing, contrast enhancement and equalizing were applied to reduce errors. The extent of the damage was calculated using one to one comparison of the intensity of each pixel of pre-/post-disaster im aged. In this step, threshold values which facilitate to extract the extent that damage investigator wants were applied by setting difference values of the intensity of pixel of pre-/post-disaster. The accuracy of optimal image processing and the result of threshold values were verified using the error matrix. The results of the study enabled the early exaction of the extents of the damages using the aerial imagery with identical characteristics. It was also possible to apply to various damage items for imagery change detection in case of utilizing multi-band im agery. Furthermore, more quantitative estimation of the dam ages would be possible with the use of numerous GIS layers such as land cover and cadastral maps.

• Journal of Korean Society of Coastal and Ocean Engineers
• /
• v.27 no.4
• /
• pp.246-257
• /
• 2015

The progressive degradation paths of structures have quantitatively been tracked by using stochastic processes, such as Wiener process, gamma process and compound Poisson process, in order to consider both the sampling uncertainty due to the usual lack of damage data and the temporal uncertainty associated with the deterioration evolution. Several important features of stochastic processes which should carefully be considered in application of the stochastic processes to practical problems have been figured out through assessing cumulative damage and lifetime distribution as a function of time. Especially, the Wiener process and the gamma process have straightforwardly been applied to armors of rubble-mound breakwaters by the aid of a sample path method based on Melby's formula which can estimate cumulative damage levels of armors over time. The sample path method have been developed to calibrate the related-parameters required in the stochastic modelling of armors of rubble-mound breakwaters. From the analyses, it is found that cumulative damage levels of armors have surely been saturated with time. Also, the exponent of power law in time, that plays a significant role in predicting the cumulative damage levels over time, can easily be determined, which makes the stochastic models possible to track the cumulative damage levels of armors of rubble-mound breakwaters over time. Finally, failure probabilities with respect to various critical limits have been analyzed throughout its anticipated service life.

• Journal of Korean Society of Coastal and Ocean Engineers
• /
• v.27 no.4
• /
• pp.258-265
• /
• 2015

Over the last 20 years, freak waves have attracted many researchers because of their unexpected behaviors and damages on offshore structures and vessels in the ocean and coastal waters. Despite many researches on the causes, mechanisms and occurrence of freak waves, we have not reached consensus on the results of the researches. This paper presents the occurrence probability of freak waves based on the analysis of wave records measured at coastal waters of Donghae harbor in the East Sea. Three freak waves were found which satisfied conditions of m and $H_S{\geq}2.5m$ and $H_m/H_S{\geq}2$. The occurrence probabilities of freak waves were estimated from extreme distributions by Mori, Rayleigh and Ahn, and found to be on the orders of O($10^{-1}$), O($10^{-2}$), and O($10^{-3}$), respectively. The occurrence probabilities of freak waves measured from waves records were estimated between O($10^{-2}$) and O($10^{-3}$), which were located between predictions by Rayleigh and Ahn's extreme probability distributions. However, we need more analysis of wave records obtained from diverse field conditions in order to verify the accuracy of the estimation of occurrence probability of freak waves.

• Journal of the Korean Society of Hazard Mitigation
• /
• v.8 no.2
• /
• pp.139-147
• /
• 2008

More precise estimation of the bed change, primary cause of flood damage, has been recognized significant for designs of levees and other river facilities. In this study, the long-term bed change was examined as the application of the relatively new Surface-water Modeling System (SMS) Model because there has not been broad verification of the model empirically on river of South Korea. This 2-dimensional model was used to examine the bed change of Pochon Stream Basin, a tributary of Imjin River, where heavy rain damages annually occur. First, in order to verify the model, the simulating period was set from 1986 to 1998 because of the existence of the field measurements. Cross sectional field measurements of 1986 were used for the initial condition and output were compared and analyzed with the observed cross sectional data in 1998. As the results of the verification, the comparison in lateral and streamwise bed level between results from the model and the field measurements showed a reasonable agreement except for the some cases of local scours. However, in terms of the quantitative comparison, the change of the bed elevations for each cross section for 1998 was rather underestimated than that of the field measurements.