• Title/Summary/Keyword: estimate cost

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Study on a Scheme of Investment Considering Customer Interruption Cost in Power Distribution System (정전비용을 고려한 배전계통 설비의 투자 계획 수립 방안연구)

  • Chu, Cheol-Min;Kim, Jae-Chul;Lee, Tae-Hee;Moon, Jong-Fil
    • Proceedings of the Korean Institute of IIIuminating and Electrical Installation Engineers Conference
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    • 2006.05a
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    • pp.365-369
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    • 2006
  • It is concentrated on a methodology to establish a scheme of investment on power distribution systems of components. This paper provides a methodology to estimate the scheme as using a customer interruption cost regarding reliability indices in power distribution systems. The proposed method basically uses the failure rate depending on time for explaining the deterioration of a component. Therefore, the theory of the sensitivity is used for deciding the precedence of the investment to consider an effect of each component's failure rate on the system reliability. After Estimating the sensitivity on component investment cost making incremental reliability level is produced by component's investment cost accumulated according to the precedence of the sensitivity. After that, the failure rate corresponding with reliability level on the curve of investment cost is used as producing the curve of customer interruption cost. Two curves have the crossing point that is proposed to acceptable reliability level for customer and utility. In this paper, the acceptable reliability level for customer with the utility is assessed to analyze customer interruption cost and sensitivity of reliability indices. In conclusion the result of investment based on this method is shown to the reliability level with two cost.

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Statistical model for forecasting uranium prices to estimate the nuclear fuel cycle cost

  • Kim, Sungki;Ko, Wonil;Nam, Hyoon;Kim, Chulmin;Chung, Yanghon;Bang, Sungsig
    • Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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    • v.49 no.5
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    • pp.1063-1070
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    • 2017
  • This paper presents a method for forecasting future uranium prices that is used as input data to calculate the uranium cost, which is a rational key cost driver of the nuclear fuel cycle cost. In other words, the statistical autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model and existing engineering cost estimation method, the so-called escalation rate model, were subjected to a comparative analysis. When the uranium price was forecasted in 2015, the margin of error of the ARIMA model forecasting was calculated and found to be 5.4%, whereas the escalation rate model was found to have a margin of error of 7.32%. Thus, it was verified that the ARIMA model is more suitable than the escalation rate model at decreasing uncertainty in nuclear fuel cycle cost calculation.

DATA MININING APPROACH TO PARAMETRIC COST ESTIMATE IN EARLY DESIGN STAGE AND ANALYTICAL CHARACTERIZATION ON OLAP (ON-LINE ANALYTICAL PROCESSING)

  • JaeHo Cho;HyunKyun Jung;JaeYoul Chun
    • International conference on construction engineering and project management
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    • 2011.02a
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    • pp.176-181
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    • 2011
  • A role of cost modeler is that of facilitating design process by the systematic application of cost factors so as to maintain sensible and economic relationships between cost, quantity, utility and appearance. These relationships help to achieve the client's requirements within an agreed budget. The purpose of this study is to develop a parametric cost estimating model for the early design stage by using the multi-dimensional system of OLAP (On-line Analytical Processing) based on the case of quantity data related to architectural design features. The parametric cost estimating models have been adopted to support decision making in the early design stage. These models typically use a similar instance or a pattern of historical case. In order to effectively use this type of data model, it is required to set data classification and prediction methods. One of the methods is to find the similar class in line with attribute selection measure in the multi-dimensional data model. Therefore, this research is to analyze the relevance attribute influenced by architectural design features with the subject of case-based quantity data used for the parametric cost estimating model. The relevance attributes can be analyzed by Analytical Characterization. It helps determine what attributes to be included in the OLAP multi-dimension.

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The Three-Stage Cluster Unrelated Question Model

  • Ahn, Seung-Chul;Lee, Gi-Sung
    • Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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    • v.14 no.1
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    • pp.55-65
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    • 2003
  • In this study, we systemize the theoretical validity for applying unrelated question model to three-stage cluster sampling method and derive the estimate and it's variance of sensitive parameter. We derive the minimum variance form under the optimal values of the subsample sizes when the cost are fixed. Under the some given precision, we obtain the optimal values of the subsample sizes and derive the minimum cost form by using them.

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A Study on the Estimation Analysis Methodology of the Optimum Economic Life-Span of Buildings (건축물의 최적 경제수명 추정분석 방법론에 관한 연구)

  • Choi, Jun-Young
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Industry Convergence
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    • v.6 no.3
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    • pp.223-230
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    • 2003
  • Generally, the life-span of a multi-housing complex is over 50 years, but in reality they are usually demolished after 20 years in spite of its remaining life expectancy. Thus, this research focuses on the estimation of the optimum economic life-span of a multi-housing complex. To estimate the minimum total cost point of start to finish of a multi-housing complex, we'll apply MAPI(Machinery and Allied Product Institute) and LCC(Life Cycle Cost) theory.

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The Analysis on Power Development Options in Remote Islands and It's Implementation (도서지역 전원개발 대안분석 및 정책 개선방향)

  • Rhee Chang-Ho;Jo In-Seung
    • New & Renewable Energy
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    • v.2 no.2 s.6
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    • pp.108-117
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    • 2006
  • This paper focus on power development options for remote islands. Recently, in accordance with progress in distributed generation technologies including renewable energy sources, many options are possible as power development option for island. At first we estimate generation cost by generation technology then recommend and suggest some countermeasures and implementation for institutional improvement.

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A Design of Cross Effect Evaluation System for Estimating the Effectiveness of R&D Projects (R&D프로젝트군의 효과추정을 위한 복합효과 평가시스템의 설계)

  • 강일중;권철신;박준호
    • Proceedings of the Korean Operations and Management Science Society Conference
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    • 2003.11a
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    • pp.21-24
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    • 2003
  • $\ulcorner$Cost Effectiveness Analysis$\lrcorner$ has been widely used to evaluate the effectiveness of R&D resources. But, almost of cost effectiveness evaluation systems have some problems, especially the cross effect among R&D projects has not been considered. To solve this problem, we have designed a new $\ulcorner$Cross Effect Evaluation System(CEES)$\lrcorner$, which are able to estimate multi-effects and cross effects by completion time among several projects.

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User Interface Design for Life Cycle Cost Estimation System (LCC 산정 시스템의 사용자인터페이스 설계)

  • Yang, Hoe-Ryeong;Shin, Han-Woo;Kim, Tae-Hui
    • Proceedings of the Korean Institute of Building Construction Conference
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    • 2012.05a
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    • pp.149-150
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    • 2012
  • According to the increase of demand of the deteriorated building. The interest of the building's maintenance is continually increased, so studies about how to increase building's stability & prolonged life span are increased. This study's purpose is to maintain building's function, so we suggest a protocol type system of UI to estimate reasonable planning of demand of repair & replacement and to distribute budget.

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Analysis for External Cost of Nuclear Power Focusing on Additional Safety and Accident Risk Costs (추가안전대책비용, 사고위험대응비용의 외부비용을 반영한 원전비용 추정 연구)

  • Kim, Yoon Kyung;Cho, Sung-Jin
    • Environmental and Resource Economics Review
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    • v.22 no.2
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    • pp.367-391
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    • 2013
  • After the Fukushima nuclear accident, the external costs of generating electricity from nuclear power plants such as additional safety compliance costs and possible accident risk action costs have gained increasing attention from the public, policy-makers and politicians. Consequently, estimates of the external costs of nuclear power are very deliberate issue that is at the center of the controversy in Korea. In this paper, we try to calculate the external costs associated with the safety of the nuclear power plants, particularly focusing on additional safety compliance costs and possible accident risk action costs. To estimate the possible accident risk action costs, we adopt the damages expectation approach that is very similar way from the external cost calculation of Japanese government after the Fukushima accident. In addition, to estimate additional safety compliance costs, we apply the levelized cost of generation method. Furthermore, we perform the sensitivity analysis to examine how much these social costs increase the electricity price rate. Estimation results of the additional security measure cost is 0.53Won/kWh ~ 0.80Won/kWh depending on the capacity factor, giving little change on the nuclear power generation cost. The estimates of possible accident risk action costs could be in the wide range depending on the different damages of the nuclear power accident, probability of the severe nuclear power accident and the capacity factor. The preliminary results show that it is 0.0025Won/kWh ~ 26.4188Won/kWh. After including those two external costs on the generation cost of a nuclear power plant, increasing rate of electricity price is 0.001%~10.0563% under the capacity factor from 70% to 90%. This paper tries to examine the external costs of nuclear power plants, so as to include it into the generation cost and the electricity price. This paper suggests one of the methodologies that we might internalize the nuclear power generations' external cost, including it into the internal generation cost.

Cost-Benefit Analysis of Back School Program for Occupational Low Back Pain Patients (직업성 요통환자에서 재활 프로그램(Back School Program) 도입의 비용-편익분석)

  • Ju, Yeong-Su;Ha, Mi-Na;Han, Sang-Hwan;Kwon, Ho-Jang;Cho, Soo-Hun;Kim, Chang-Yup;Kim, Sun-Min
    • Journal of Preventive Medicine and Public Health
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    • v.29 no.2 s.53
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    • pp.347-357
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    • 1996
  • Although occupational low back pain accounts for $20\sim40%$ of all occupational illness and injury, there are limited numbers of studies regarding the effectiveness of back school program. The objective of this study was to evaluate the economic benefit of back school program for early return to work of occupational low back pain patients in the current occupational injury compensation and management system. The cost-benefit analysis in this study was conducted to evaluate the relative magnitude of benefit to cost. The total cost was estimated by calculating the value of components in back school program according to governmental budget protocol. The back school program was consisted of three major approaches, pain center, work-hardening program and funcional restoration program and each of components had various facilities and experts. The total amount of cost was estimated as 250,866,220 won per year. The most promising type of back school program were quite intensive (a 3 to 5-week stay in a specialized center), therefore, if we adopted the 5-week stay course, 10 courses could be held in a year. Following to the medical act, 20 patients per doctor could participate in a each course, ie, total 200 patients in a year. As a result, we could estimate the cost of 1,254,331 won a patient. We estimated the benefit by using data of a few local labor offices about average medical treatment beneficiary and off-duty beneficiary of 46 occupational low back pain patients in 1994. Ullman and Larsson (1977) mentioned that the group of chronic low back pain patients who participated in back school program needed less time to recover by 48.4% of beneficiary duration. And in the trying to estimate the benefit, we asked 10 rehabilitation board certificate doctors about reduction proportion of treatment cost by introducing back school program. The answered reduction proportions were in the range of $30\sim45%$, average 39%. As a final result, we could see that the introduction of back school program in treatment of chronic occupational low back pain patients could produce the benefit to cost ratio as 3.90 and 6.28. And we could conclude that the introduction of back school program was beneficial to current occupational injury compensation and management system.

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