• Title/Summary/Keyword: error distribution

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Monitoring Ground-level SO2 Concentrations Based on a Stacking Ensemble Approach Using Satellite Data and Numerical Models (위성 자료와 수치모델 자료를 활용한 스태킹 앙상블 기반 SO2 지상농도 추정)

  • Choi, Hyunyoung;Kang, Yoojin;Im, Jungho;Shin, Minso;Park, Seohui;Kim, Sang-Min
    • Korean Journal of Remote Sensing
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    • v.36 no.5_3
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    • pp.1053-1066
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    • 2020
  • Sulfur dioxide (SO2) is primarily released through industrial, residential, and transportation activities, and creates secondary air pollutants through chemical reactions in the atmosphere. Long-term exposure to SO2 can result in a negative effect on the human body causing respiratory or cardiovascular disease, which makes the effective and continuous monitoring of SO2 crucial. In South Korea, SO2 monitoring at ground stations has been performed, but this does not provide spatially continuous information of SO2 concentrations. Thus, this research estimated spatially continuous ground-level SO2 concentrations at 1 km resolution over South Korea through the synergistic use of satellite data and numerical models. A stacking ensemble approach, fusing multiple machine learning algorithms at two levels (i.e., base and meta), was adopted for ground-level SO2 estimation using data from January 2015 to April 2019. Random forest and extreme gradient boosting were used as based models and multiple linear regression was adopted for the meta-model. The cross-validation results showed that the meta-model produced the improved performance by 25% compared to the base models, resulting in the correlation coefficient of 0.48 and root-mean-square-error of 0.0032 ppm. In addition, the temporal transferability of the approach was evaluated for one-year data which were not used in the model development. The spatial distribution of ground-level SO2 concentrations based on the proposed model agreed with the general seasonality of SO2 and the temporal patterns of emission sources.

A Quantification Method for the Cold Pool Effect on Nocturnal Temperature in a Closed Catchment (폐쇄집수역의 냉기호 모의를 통한 일 최저기온 분포 추정)

  • Kim, Soo-Ock;Yun, Jin-I.
    • Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
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    • v.13 no.4
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    • pp.176-184
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    • 2011
  • Cold air on sloping surfaces flows down to the valley bottom in mountainous terrain at calm and clear nights. Based on the assumption that the cold air flow may be the same as the water flow, current models estimate temperature drop by regarding the cold air accumulation at a given location as the water-like free drainage. At a closed catchment whose outlet is blocked by man-made obstacles such as banks and roads, however, the water-like free drainage assumption is no longer valid because the cold air accumulates from the bottom first. We developed an empirical model to estimate quantitatively the effect of cold pool on nocturnal temperature in a closed catchment. In our model, a closed catchment is treated like a "vessel", and a digital elevation model (DEM) was used to calculate the maximum capacity of the cold pool formed in a closed catchment. We introduce a topographical variable named "shape factor", which is the ratio of the cold air accumulation potential across the whole catchment area to the maximum capacity of the cold pool to describe the relative size of temperature drop at a wider range of catchment shapes. The shape factor is then used to simulate the density profile of cold pool formed in a given catchment based on a hypsometric equation. The cold lake module was incorporated with the existing model (i.e., Chung et al., 2006), generating a new model and predicting distribution of minimum temperature over closed catchments. We applied this model to Akyang valley (i.e., a typical closed catchment of 53 $km^2$ area) in the southern skirt of Mt. Jiri National Park where 12 automated weather stations (AWS) are operational. The performance of the model was evaluated based on the feasibility of delineating the temperature pattern accurately at cold pool forming at night. Overall, the model's ability of simulating the spatial pattern of lower temperature were improved especially at the valley bottom, showing a similar pattern of the estimated temperature with that of thermal images obtained across the valley at dawn (0520 to 0600 local standard time) of 17 May 2011. Error in temperature estimation, calculated with the root mean square error using the 10 low-lying AWSs, was substantially decreased from $1.30^{\circ}C$ with the existing model to $0.71^{\circ}C$ with the new model. These results suggest the feasibility of the new method in predicting the site-specific freeze and frost warning at a closed catchment.

Measurement of Two-Dimensional Velocity Distribution of Spatio-Temporal Image Velocimeter using Cross-Correlation Analysis (상호상관법을 이용한 시공간 영상유속계의 2차원 유속분포 측정)

  • Yu, Kwonkyu;Kim, Seojun;Kim, Dongsu
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.47 no.6
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    • pp.537-546
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    • 2014
  • Surface image velocimetry was introduced as an efficient and sage alternative to conventional river flow measurement methods during floods. The conventional surface image velocimetry uses a pair of images to estimate velocity fields using cross-correlation analysis. This method is appropriate to analyzing images taken with a short time interval. It, however, has some drawbacks; it takes a while to analyze images for the verage velocity of long time intervals and is prone to include errors or uncertainties due to flow characteristics and/or image taking conditions. Methods using spatio-temporal images, called STIV, were developed to overcome the drawbacks of conventional surface image velocimetry. The grayscale-gradient tensor method, one of various STIVs, has shown to be effectively reducing the analysis time and is fairly insusceptible to any measurement noise. It, unfortunately, can only be applied to the main flow direction. This means that it can not measure any two-dimensional flow field, e.g. flow in the vicinity of river structures and flow around river bends. The present study aimed to develop a new method of analyzing spatio-temporal images in two-dimension using cross-correlation analysis. Unlike the conventional STIV, the developed method can be used to measure two-dimensional flow substantially. The method also has very high spatial resolution and reduces the analysis time. A verification test using artificial images with lid-driven cavity flow showed that the maximum error of the method is less than 10 % and the average error is less than 5 %. This means that the developed scheme seems to be fairly accurate, even for two-dimensional flow.

A Reflectance Normalization Via BRDF Model for the Korean Vegetation using MODIS 250m Data (한반도 식생에 대한 MODIS 250m 자료의 BRDF 효과에 대한 반사도 정규화)

  • Yeom, Jong-Min;Han, Kyung-Soo;Kim, Young-Seup
    • Korean Journal of Remote Sensing
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    • v.21 no.6
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    • pp.445-456
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    • 2005
  • The land surface parameters should be determined with sufficient accuracy, because these play an important role in climate change near the ground. As the surface reflectance presents strong anisotropy, off-nadir viewing results a strong dependency of observations on the Sun - target - sensor geometry. They contribute to the random noise which is produced by surface angular effects. The principal objective of the study is to provide a database of accurate surface reflectance eliminated the angular effects from MODIS 250m reflective channel data over Korea. The MODIS (Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer) sensor has provided visible and near infrared channel reflectance at 250m resolution on a daily basis. The successive analytic processing steps were firstly performed on a per-pixel basis to remove cloudy pixels. And for the geometric distortion, the correction process were performed by the nearest neighbor resampling using 2nd-order polynomial obtained from the geolocation information of MODIS Data set. In order to correct the surface anisotropy effects, this paper attempted the semiempirical kernel-driven Bi- directional Reflectance Distribution Function(BRDF) model. The algorithm yields an inversion of the kernel-driven model to the angular components, such as viewing zenith angle, solar zenith angle, viewing azimuth angle, solar azimuth angle from reflectance observed by satellite. First we consider sets of the model observations comprised with a 31-day period to perform the BRDF model. In the next step, Nadir view reflectance normalization is carried out through the modification of the angular components, separated by BRDF model for each spectral band and each pixel. Modeled reflectance values show a good agreement with measured reflectance values and their RMSE(Root Mean Square Error) was totally about 0.01(maximum=0.03). Finally, we provide a normalized surface reflectance database consisted of 36 images for 2001 over Korea.

Spatial Downscaling of Ocean Colour-Climate Change Initiative (OC-CCI) Forel-Ule Index Using GOCI Satellite Image and Machine Learning Technique (GOCI 위성영상과 기계학습 기법을 이용한 Ocean Colour-Climate Change Initiative (OC-CCI) Forel-Ule Index의 공간 상세화)

  • Sung, Taejun;Kim, Young Jun;Choi, Hyunyoung;Im, Jungho
    • Korean Journal of Remote Sensing
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    • v.37 no.5_1
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    • pp.959-974
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    • 2021
  • Forel-Ule Index (FUI) is an index which classifies the colors of inland and seawater exist in nature into 21 gradesranging from indigo blue to cola brown. FUI has been analyzed in connection with the eutrophication, water quality, and light characteristics of water systems in many studies, and the possibility as a new water quality index which simultaneously contains optical information of water quality parameters has been suggested. In thisstudy, Ocean Colour-Climate Change Initiative (OC-CCI) based 4 km FUI was spatially downscaled to the resolution of 500 m using the Geostationary Ocean Color Imager (GOCI) data and Random Forest (RF) machine learning. Then, the RF-derived FUI was examined in terms of its correlation with various water quality parameters measured in coastal areas and its spatial distribution and seasonal characteristics. The results showed that the RF-derived FUI resulted in higher accuracy (Coefficient of Determination (R2)=0.81, Root Mean Square Error (RMSE)=0.7784) than GOCI-derived FUI estimated by Pitarch's OC-CCI FUI algorithm (R2=0.72, RMSE=0.9708). RF-derived FUI showed a high correlation with five water quality parameters including Total Nitrogen, Total Phosphorus, Chlorophyll-a, Total Suspended Solids, Transparency with the correlation coefficients of 0.87, 0.88, 0.97, 0.65, and -0.98, respectively. The temporal pattern of the RF-derived FUI well reflected the physical relationship with various water quality parameters with a strong seasonality. The research findingssuggested the potential of the high resolution FUI in coastal water quality management in the Korean Peninsula.

Evaluation of Temperature and Precipitation over CORDEX-EA Phase 2 Domain using Regional Climate Model HadGEM3-RA (HadGEM3-RA 지역기후모델을 이용한 CORDEX 동아시아 2단계 지역의 기온과 강수 모의 평가)

  • Byon, Jae-Young;Kim, Tae-Jun;Kim, Jin-Uk;Kim, Do-Hyun
    • Journal of the Korean earth science society
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    • v.43 no.3
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    • pp.367-385
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    • 2022
  • This study evaluates the temperature and precipitation results in East Asia simulated from the Hadley Centre Global Environmental Model version 3 regional climate model (HadGEM3-RA) developed by the UK Met Office. The HadGEM3-RA is conducted in the Coordinated Regional climate Downscaling Experiment-East Asia (CORDEX-EA) Phase II domain for 15 year (2000-2014). The spatial distribution of rainbands produced from the HadGEM3-RA by the summer monsoon is in good agreement with the Asian Precipitation Highly Resolved Observational Data Integration Towards Evaluation of water resources (APRODITE) data over the East Asia. But, precipitation amount is overestimated in Southeast Asia and underestimated over the Korean Peninsula. In particular, the simulated summer rainfall and APRODITE data show the least correlation coefficient and the maximum value of root mean square error in South Korea. Prediction of temperature in Southeast Asia shows underestimation with a maximum error during winter season, while it appears the largest underestimation in South Korea during spring season. In order to evaluate local predictability, the time series of temperature and precipitation compared to the ASOS data of the Seoul Meteorological Station is similar to the spatial average verification results in which the summer precipitation and winter temperature underestimate. Especially, the underestimation of the rainfall increases when the amounts of precipitation increase in summer. The winter temperature tends to underestimate at low temperature, while it overestimates at high temperature. The results of the extreme climate index comparison show that heat wave is overestimated and heavy rainfall is underestimated. The HadGEM3-RA simulated with a horizontal resolution of 25 km shows limitations in the prediction of mesoscale convective system and topographic precipitation. This study indicates that improvement of initial data, horizontal resolution, and physical process are necessary to improve predictability of regional climate model.

A Bayesian Estimation of Price for Commercial Property: Using subjective priors and a kriging technique (상업용 토지 가격의 베이지안 추정: 주관적 사전지식과 크리깅 기법의 활용을 중심으로)

  • Lee, Chang Ro;Eum, Young Seob;Park, Key Ho
    • Journal of the Korean Geographical Society
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    • v.49 no.5
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    • pp.761-778
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    • 2014
  • There has been relatively little study to model price for commercial property because of its low transaction volume in the market. Despite of this thin market character, this paper tried to estimate prices for commercial lots as accurate as possible. We constructed a model whose components consist of mean structure(global trend), exponential covariance function and a pure error term, and applied it to actual sales price data of Seoul. We explicitly took account of spatial autocorrelation of land price by utilizing a kriging technique, a representative method of spatial interpolation, because the land price of commercial lots has feature of differential price forming pattern depending on submarkets they belong to. In addition, we chose to apply a bayesian kriging to overcome data scarcity by incorporating experts' knowledge into prior probability distribution. The chosen model's excellent performance was verified by the result from validation data. We confirmed that the excellence of the model is attributed to incorporating both autocorexperts' knowledge and spatial autocorrelation in the model construction. This paper is differentiated from previous studies in the sense that it applied the bayesian kriging technique to estimate price for commercial lots and explicitly combined experts' knowledge with data. It is expected that the result of this paper would provide a useful guide for the circumstances under which property price has to be estimated reliably based on sparse transaction data.

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Changes of Body Balance on Static Posture According to Types of Induced Ametropia (정적자세에서 유도된 비정시의 유형에 따른 신체균형의 변화)

  • Kim, Sang-Yeob;Moon, Byeong-Yeon;Cho, Hyun Gug
    • Journal of Korean Ophthalmic Optics Society
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    • v.19 no.2
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    • pp.239-246
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    • 2014
  • Purpose: This study was performed to investigate the effect of induced ametropia on static posture for body balance. Methods: Twenty subjects (10 males, 10 females) of average age $23.4{pm}2.70$ years were participated and ametropia(binocular myopia; BM, simple myopic anisometropia; SMA, binocular hyperopia; BH, and simple hyperopic anisometropia; SHA) were induced with ${pm}0.50D$, ${\pm}1.00D$, ${\pm}1.50D$, ${\pm}2.00D$, ${\pm}3.00D$, ${\pm}4.00D$, ${\pm}5.00D$, respectively. General stability (ST), weight distribution index (WDI), and fall risk index (FI) were measured using TETRAX the biofeedback systems. Each index of the body balance was evaluated for 32 seconds in each ametropic condition and those value was compared with the value in fully corrected condition. Results: The ST showed significant increase from +0.50 D under condition of BM, from +1.00 D under condition of SMA, from -1.00 D under condition of BH, and from -1.50 D under condition of SHA compared with under condition of fully corrected condition, respectively. The FI showed significant increases from +4.00 D under condition of BM, from -1.00 D under condition of BH, and from -1.50 D under condition of SHA. The WDI show no change in all ametropia condition. Conclusions: Whatever ametropia is, uncorrected refractive error could reduce the general stability of body balance and increase the falling risk.

Design of Mat Foundation by Simplified Flexible Method Using Regression Analysis (회귀분석을 이용한 단순화된 연성법에 의한 전면기초의 설계)

  • Moon, Kyoungtae;Park, Sangyeol
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.35 no.1
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    • pp.153-164
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    • 2015
  • The methods of design of mat foundation may be classified as the rigid method and the flexible method according to the assumptions used. In the rigid method, the mat is assumed to be infinitely rigid and the contact pressure is assumed planar distribution. However, the contact pressure is not planar but curved surface because the real mat is not rigid. Therefore, it is not precise to analyze the mat foundation using the rigid method, and so there is no choice but to accept an error. On the other hand, in the flexible method, the mat is considered as the plate on the elastic foundation. This elastic plate theory is for the infinite plate acting a concentrated load on the elastic foundation. However, the functions for the moment, shear, and the deflection by the flexible method are very complex, there are many difficulties for the designer to use them. Also, it is impossible to use the design aid figures as a substitute of the complex functions, because they do not cover the values at the critical sections for the moment and shear. Therefore, in this research, the simplified functions for the moment, shear, and the deflection are proposed by regression analysis for an designer to use easily the flexible method. The simplified functions are very accurate and very ease to use.

Derivation of Nacelle Transfer Function Using LiDAR Measurement (라이다(LiDAR) 측정을 이용한 나셀전달함수의 유도)

  • Kim, Hyun-Goo;Kang, Yong-Heack;Yun, Chang-Yeol
    • Transactions of the Korean Society of Mechanical Engineers A
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    • v.39 no.9
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    • pp.929-936
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    • 2015
  • Nacelle anemometers are mounted on wind-turbine nacelles behind blade roots to measure the free-stream wind speed projected onto the wind turbine for control purposes. However, nacelle anemometers measure the transformed wind speed that is due to the wake effect caused by the blades' rotation and the nacelle geometry, etc. In this paper, we derive the Nacelle Transfer Function (NTF) to calibrate the nacelle wind speed to the free-stream wind speed, as required to carry out the performance test of wind turbines according to the IEC 61400-12-2 Wind-Turbine Standard. For the reference free-stream wind data, we use the Light Detection And Ranging (LiDAR) measurement at the Shinan wind power plant located on the Bigeumdo Island shoreline. To improve the simple linear regression NTF, we derive the multiple nonlinear regression NTF. The standard error of the wind speed was found to have decreased by a factor of 9.4, whereas the mean of the power-output residual distribution decreased by 6.5 when the 2-parameter NTF was used instead of the 1-parameter NTF.