• 무역학회지
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• 제44권1호
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• pp.75-86
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• 2019

This study performs a factor analysis that affects the bunker oil price using the Co-integration model and Vector Error Correction Model (VECM). For this purpose, we use data from Clarkson and the analysis results show 17.6% decrease in bunker oil price when the amount of crude oil production increases at 1.0%, 10.3% increase in bunker oil price when the seaborne trade volume increases at 1.0%, 1.0% decrease in bunker oil price when total volume of vessels increases at 1.0%, and 0.003% increase in bunker oil price when 1.0% increase in world GDP, respectively. This study is meaningful in that this study estimates the speed of convergence to long-term equilibrium and identifies the price adjust mechanism which naturally exists in bunker oil market. And it is expected that the future study can provide statistically more meaningful econometric results if it can obtain data during more long-periods and use more various kinds of explanatory variables.

• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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• 제8권3호
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• pp.731-740
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• 2021

This research aims to investigate the determinants of real effective exchange rate in emerging ASEAN countries, including Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand, and Vietnam. The research was conducted by using quarterly time series data set from 1980Q1 to 2020Q3. Cointegration and the error correction model (ECM) methods were applied to test the long run and short run relationship of the real effective exchange rate and its determinants. The results indicate that the ratio of foreign direct investment to GDP and the government spending have significantly positive impact on real effective exchange rate in the Emerging ASEAN countries. The trade opening had influencing real effective exchange rate in most the Emerging ASEAN countries, except Vietnam. In addition, the international reserve (INR) had significant long-run impacts variables on real effective exchange rate in Malaysia, Thailand and Vietnam. In the short run equilibrium, the error collection term suggest that Indonesia and Malaysia are the fastest speed adjustment to equilibrium. In addition, the term of trade influence the real effective exchange rate in Indonesia, Malaysia, and the Philippines but it is not in Thailand and Vietnam. However, FDI is a major factor of the real effective exchange rate in Vietnam, but not for other countries.

• Steel and Composite Structures
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• 제45권3호
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• pp.305-330
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• 2022

This article aims to investigate the static deflection and stress analysis of bi-directional functionally graded porous plate (BDFGPP) modeled by unified higher order kinematic theories to include the shear stress effects, which not be considered before. Different shear functions are described according to higher order models that satisfy the zero-shear influence at the top and bottom surfaces, and hence refrain from the need of shear correction factor. The material properties are graded through two spatial directions (i.e., thickness and length directions) according to the power law distribution. The porosities and voids inside the material constituent are described by different cosine functions. Hamilton's principle is implemented to derive the governing equilibrium equation of bi-directional FG porous plate structures. An efficient numerical differential integral quadrature method (DIQM) is exploited to solve the coupled variable coefficients partial differential equations of equilibrium. Problem validation and verification have been proven with previous prestigious work. Numerical results are illustrated to present the significant impacts of kinematic shear relations, gradation indices through thickness and length, porosity type, and boundary conditions on the static deflection and stress distribution of BDFGP plate. The proposed model is efficient in design and analysis of many applications used in nuclear, mechanical, aerospace, naval, dental, and medical fields.

• Geomechanics and Engineering
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• 제22권4호
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• pp.319-328
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• 2020

This paper investigates the effect of the width of failure and tension crack (TC) on the stability of cohesive-frictional soil slopes in three dimensions. Working analytically, the slip surface and the tension crack are considered to have spheroid and cylindrical shape respectively, although the case of tension crack having planar, vertical surface is also discussed; the latter was found to return higher safety factor values. Because at the initiation of a purely rotational slide along a spheroid surface no shear forces develop inside the failure mass, the rigid body concept is conveniently used; in this respect, the validity of the rigid body concept is discussed, whilst it is supported by comparison examples. Stability tables are given for fully drained and fully saturated slopes without TC, with non-filled TC as well as with fully-filled TC. Among the main findings is that, the width of failure corresponding to the minimum safety factor value is not always infinite, but it is affected by the triggering factor for failure (e.g., water acting as pore pressures and/or as hydrostatic force in the TC). More specifically, it was found that, when a slope is near its limit equilibrium and under the influence of a triggering factor, the minimum safety factor value corresponds to a near spherical failure mechanism, even if the triggering factor (e.g., pore-water pressures) acts uniformly along the third dimension. Moreover, it was found that, the effect of tension crack is much greater when the stability of slopes is studied in three dimensions; indeed, safety factor values comparable to the 2D case are obtained.

• 한국지반환경공학회 논문집
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• 제8권2호
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• pp.11-18
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• 2007

철도 연변 사면의 활동은 열차 노선의 사용성과 안전성에 상당한 영향을 미치고 있다. 따라서 사면안정 문제는 철도 노선 운용에 있어 큰 관심사항이다. 본 연구에서는 철도연변 사면의 활동이 발생하는 조건에서의 강우정보를 분석하였으며 침투해석과 한계평형해석을 통하여 강우를 고려한 사면의 안정성 분석 기법을 제시하고자 한다. 강우량 분석결과 사면활동이 발생하기까지 누적강우량은 150~500mm 사이에 분포하고 있었고 강우지속시간은 3~24시간으로 나타났다. 분석된 강우량을 바탕으로 무한사면 조건에서의 침투해석과 강체거동 분석을 수행하고 무한사면의 심도는 2m를 가정하였으며 다중의 파괴면은 2m 심도로부터 16.7cm 간격으로 모델링이 되었다. 한계파괴심도인 2m는 안전율이 수렴하는 심도이다. 해석결과 기존의 사면안정성 평가 기준에서 고려하고 있는 우기시 해석조건의 결과보다 현실적인 안전율을 보였다. 또한 누적강우량, 강우지속시간, 안전율을 축으로 하는 3차원 공간상에 안전율 변화 추이를 도시한 결과 강우를 고려한 사면의 안전성 분석 시 일반적으로 고려하는 강우강도 뿐만 아니라 누적강우량(강우지속시간) 또한 고려되어야 할 것으로 판단되었다.

• 수산경영론집
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• 제51권2호
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• pp.51-69
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• 2020

The purpose of this study is to construct an outlook model that is consistent with the "Fisheries Outlook" monthly published by the Fisheries Outlook Center of the Korea Maritime Institute(KMI). In particular, it was designed as a partial equilibrium model limited to abalone items, but a model was constructed with a dynamic ecological equation model(DEEM) system taking into account biological breeding and shipping time. The results of this study are significant in that they can be used as basic data for model development of various items in the future. In this study, due to the limitation of monthly data, the market equilibrium price was calculated by using the recursive model construction method to be calculated directly as an inverse demand. A model was built in the form of a structural equation model that can explain economic causality rather than a conventional time series analysis model. The research results and implications are as follows. As a result of the estimation of the amount of young seashells planting, it was estimated that the coefficient of the amount of young seashells planting from the previous year was estimated to be 0.82 so that there was no significant difference in the amount of young seashells planting this year and last year. It is also meant to be nurtured for a long time after aquaculture license and limited aquaculture area(edge style) and implantation. The economic factor, the coefficient of price from last year was estimated at 0.47. In the case of breeding quantity, it was estimated that the longer the breeding period, the larger the coefficient of breeding quantity in the previous period. It was analyzed that the impact of shipments on the breeding volume increased. In the case of shipments, the coefficient of production price was estimated unelastically. As the period of rearing increased, the estimation coefficient decreased. Such result indicates that the expected price, which is an economic factor variable and that had less influence on the intention to shipments. In addition, the elasticity of the breeding quantity was estimated more unelastically as the breeding period increased. This is also correlated with the relative coefficient size of the expected price. The abalone supply and demand forecast model developed in this study is significant in that it reduces the prediction error than the existing model using the ecological equation modeling system and the economic causal model. However, there are limitations in establishing a system of simultaneous equations that can be linked to production and consumption between industries and items. This is left as a future research project.

• Geomechanics and Engineering
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• 제15권4호
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• pp.947-955
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• 2018

In this study, we propose a three-dimensional simplified slope stability analysis using a hybrid-type penalty method (HPM). In this method, a solid element obtained by the HPM is applied to a column that divides the slope into a lattice. Therefore, it can obtain a safety factor in the same way as simplified methods on the slip surface. Furthermore, it can obtain results (displacement and strain) that cannot be obtained by conventional limit equilibrium methods such as the Hovland method. The continuity condition of displacement between adjacent columns and between elements for each depth is considered to incorporate a penalty function and the relative displacement. For a slip surface between the bottom surface and the boundary condition to express the slip of slope, we introduce a penalty function based on the Mohr-Coulomb failure criterion. To compute the state of the slip surface, an r-min method is used in the load incremental method. Using the result of the simple three-dimensional slope stability analysis, we obtain a safety factor that is the same as the conventional method. Furthermore, the movement of the slope was calculated quantitatively and qualitatively because the displacement and strain of each element are obtained.

• 한국환경과학회지
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• 제9권3호
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• pp.229-239
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• 2000

Spring, ground and thermal waters in the vicinity of Mt. Geumjeong and Mt. Baekyang area have been sampled and analyzed for major and minor elements. According to the Piper diagram, spring water belongs to $Ca-HCO_3$ and $Na-HCO_3$ types, groundwater to $Ca-HCO_3$ type, and thermal water to Na-Cl type. Based on the phase stability diagrams of $[Ca^{2+}]/{[H^+]}^2, [Mg^{2+}]/{[H^+]}^2, [K^+]/[H^+]$, and $[Na^+]/[H^+] vs. [H_4SiO_4]$, spring water, groundwater and thermal water are mostly in equilibrium with kaolinite. The result of factor analysis shows three factors (factor 1, 2 and factor 3) for the spring water, the groundwater and the thermal water which are represented by the influence of the dissolution of feldspar, calcite, anthropogenic sources (domestic and industrial wastes) and salt water.

• 한국안전학회지
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• 제12권4호
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• pp.27-38
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• 1997

The effect of geometry factors on the combined mode stress intensity factor behaviors of a slant crack in a non-uniform thickness material was analysed by 2-dimensional theoretical analysis. The analysis is based on the Laurent's series expansions of complex potentials where the complex coefficients of the series are determined from the compatibility and the equilibrium conditions of the thickness interface and the stress free conditions of the crack surface. In numerical calculations the perturbation technique is employed. The expressions for the crack tip stress intensity factor are given in the form of power series of dimensionless crack length $\lamda$, and the function of crack slant angle $\alpha$ and thickness ratio $\beta$. The results of numerical calculations for each problems are represented as the correction factors F($\lamda$, $\alpha$, $\beta$). The results clearly show the following characteristics : The correction factors of the combined mode stress intensity factors for a non-uniform thickness material can be defined in the form of F($\lamda$, $\alpha$, $\beta$). The stress intensity factor values for a given crack length are decreased with increase of thickness ratio $\beta$.

• Steel and Composite Structures
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• 제49권1호
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• pp.91-107
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• 2023

An effective approach to promoting sustainability within the construction industry is the use of recycled aggregate concrete (RAC) as a substitute for natural aggregates. Ensuring the frost resilience of RAC technologies is crucial to facilitate their adoption in regions characterized by cold temperatures. The main aim of this study was to use the Random Forests (RF) approach to forecast the frost durability of RAC in cold locations, with a focus on the durability factor (DF) value. Herein, three optimization algorithms named Sine-cosine optimization algorithm (SCA), Black widow optimization algorithm (BWOA), and Equilibrium optimizer (EO) were considered for determing optimal values of RF hyperparameters. The findings show that all developed systems faithfully represented the DF, with an R² for the train and test data phases of better than 0.9539 and 0.9777, respectively. In two assessment and learning stages, EO - RF is found to be superior than BWOA - RF and SCA - RF. The outperformed model's performance (EO - RF) was superior to that of ANN (from literature) by raising the values of R² and reducing the RMSE values. Considering the justifications, as well as the comparisons from metrics and Taylor diagram's findings, it could be found out that, although other RF models were equally reliable in predicting the the frost durability of RAC based on the durability factor (DF) value in cold climates, the developed EO - RF strategy excelled them all.