• Journal of Science and Technology Studies
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• v.12 no.1
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• pp.107-144
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• 2012

Recently concerns on the energy future are rising in Korea after nuclear disaster of Fukushima in Japan last year. However, even after Fukushima disaster Korean government keeps on insisting nuclear oriented energy policy. Contrary to it, some of civil society's organizations(CSOs) including environment groups and progressive political parties are making strong voices for phase-out nuclear. As a way of phase-out nuclear activity researcher groups based on CSOs have presented several alternative energy scenarios against the official government scenario so that contest between the two senarios seems not to be avoided. This article aims to analyse the politics of expertise around energy scenarios in Korea by highlighting differences between two scenarios of government and CSOs in terms of epistemological and methodological base, value orientation, institutional foundation, and the socio-political contexts of scenarios. Our research shows that government's energy scenario is based on scientific-positivist epistemology, firm belief in value neutrality and forecasting method, and is built by neo-classical economists at government-sponsored research institutes in accordance with the 'Business As Usual' approach. In contrast, alternative scenarios of CSOs can be said to be based on epistemological constructivism, value oriented attitudes and backcasting method, and be built by collaboration of researchers and activists with different academic and social backgrounds after Fukushima nuclear disaster.

• Journal of the Korea Organic Resources Recycling Association
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• v.28 no.1
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• pp.37-51
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• 2020

Following the Paris Agreement adopted at the end of 2015, global stock-taking has been planned to be carried out on a 5-year basis from 2023, and it is mandatory to report on national GHG inventory and progress toward achieving greenhouse gas reduction targets. To prepare for this, it is important to improve the reliability of estimation of the greenhouse gas emission, identify the characteristics of each greenhouse gas emission source, and manage the amount of emissions. As such, this study compared and analyzed the amount of emissions from the landfill sector using the 2000 GPG, the 2006 IPCC Guidelines, and the 2019 Refinement estimation method. As a result, in comparison to 2016, there were 2,287 Gg CO₂_eq. in scenario 1, 1,870 Gg CO₂_eq. in scenario 2-1, 10,886 Gg CO₂_eq. in scenario 2-2, 10,629 Gg CO₂_eq. in scenario 2-3, and 12,468 Gg CO₂_eq. in scenario 3. Thus, when the 2006 IPCC Guidelines were applied with respect to 2000 GPG, it was revealed that greenhouse gas emissions have increased. Such difference in the emission changes was due to the changes in the calculation method and the emission factor values applied. Therefore, it is urgent to develop national-specific values of the emission factor based on characteristics of greenhouse gas emission in Korea.

• Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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• v.42 no.5
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• pp.582-589
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• 2010

As a part of the back-end fuel cycle, transportation of spent nuclear fuel (SNF) from nuclear power plants (NPPs) to a fuel storage facility is very important in establishing a nuclear fuel cycle. In Korea, the accumulated amount of SNF in the NPP pools is troublesome since the temporary storage facilities at these NPP pools are expected to be full of SNF within ten years. Therefore, Korea cannot help but plan for the construction of an interim storage facility to solve this problem in the near future. Especially, a decision on several factors, such as where the interim storage facility should be located, how many casks a transport ship can carry at a time and how many casks are initially required, affect the configuration of the transportation system. In order to analyze the various possible candidate scenarios, we assumed four cases for the interim storage facility location, three cases for the load capacity that a transport ship can carry and two cases for the total amount of casks used for transportation. First, this study considered the currently accumulated amount of SNF in Korea, and the amount of SNF generated from NPPs until all NPPs are shut down. Then, how much SNF per year must be transported from the NPPs to an interim storage facility was calculated during an assumed transportation period. Second, 24 candidate transportation scenarios were constructed by a combination of the decision factors. To construct viable yearly transportation schedules for the selected 24 scenarios, we created a spreadsheet program named TranScenario, which was developed by using MS EXCEL. TranScenario can help schedulers input shipping routes and allocate transportation casks. Also, TranScenario provides information on the cask distribution in the NPPs and in the interim storage facility automatically, by displaying it in real time according to the shipping routes, cask types and cask numbers that the user generates. Once a yearly transportation schedule is established, TranScenario provides some statistical information, such as the voyage time, the availability of the interim storage facility, the number of transported casks sent from the NPPs, and the number of transported casks received at the interim storage facility. By using this information, users can verify and validate a yearly transportation schedule. In this way, the 24 candidate scenarios could be constructed easily. Finally, these 24 scenarios were compared in terms of their operation cost.

• Journal of Environmental Impact Assessment
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• v.20 no.2
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• pp.107-121
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• 2011

To assess the impact of climate change on water quality in an impounded river basin, this study estimated future air temperature and rainfall in the years of 2020, 2050 and 2080 by statistically downscaling the simulation results from two GCM models combined with two emission scenarios (A2 and B1). Both scenarios were selected from the Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) suggested by IPCC. The A2 scenario represents an extreme condition whereas the B1 scenario represents a clean and energy efficient condition which is similar to that of study basin. With the results of estimated climate factors and land use data, the discharge and the concentrations of BOD, TN and TP in the Andong dam basins were simulated using the SWAT model. The change in BOD concentration for the B1 emission scenario was greater than the A2 scenario in the annual increase range and the pollution level. The concentration of TN was decreased during March? June which is drought period and increased again afterward. In contrast to TN, the concentration of TP was generally decreased. The change in TP concentration was greater for the B1 scenario than the A2 scenario.

• Journal of Energy Engineering
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• v.15 no.1 s.45
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• pp.14-22
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• 2006

Various pros and cons are raised as to the nuclear and renewable power portions. In order to generate scientific, objective, and comparative data, this study reviewed energy policies of some countries and derived 34 possible energy mix scenarios depending on the nuclear portion, the renewable portion and the make-up power sources. For each scenario, the unit electricity cost was calculated using the BLMP (Base Load Marginal Price) and SMP (System Marginal Price) methodology, which is currently adopted in Korean electricity market. The unit electricity cost for the current energy mix was 22.18 Won/kWh and those fir other scenarios spreaded from 19.74 to 164.07 Won/kWh excluding the transmission costs and profits of the electric utility companies. Generally, the increased nuclear power portion leads reduction in the unit electricity cost while the trend is reversed in the renewable power portion. Notable observation is that when the renewable power portion exceeds 20%, as the scenario cannot enjoy the benefit of cheap base load, the unit electricity cost at low demand time zone is increased.

• Journal of Korean Society of Forest Science
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• v.98 no.6
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• pp.799-805
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• 2009

To construct the production system of forest biomass as a small scale heating energy source, energy availability of wood-chip was examined by cost and energy balance analysis in the production process. The costs to produce wood-chip of 1 kg was calculated by yarding machines and their operational gradient conditions. As a result, 195.45~210.54 won/kg were required as production costs of wood-chip. Input energy rate (%) which is output to input energy in wood-chip production process were showed as 26.58~27.38%. Energy input rate by operational gradient was not significantly difference, and scenario B with tower yarder system appeared by more efficient than scenario A with tractor yarding system in opposition to production costs analysis.

• Proceedings of the Korean Radioactive Waste Society Conference
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• 2004.06a
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• pp.188-188
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• 2004

In the present study, a multicriteria decision-making (MCDM) problem of ranking of important radionuclide release scenarios in a low and intermediate radioactive waste repository is to treat on the basis of non-additive fuzzy measures and fuzzy integral theory. Ranking of important scenarios can lead to the provision of more effective safety measure in a design stage of the repository. The ranking is determined by a relative degree of appropriateness of scenario alternatives.(omitted)

• Journal of Korean Society of Environmental Engineers
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• v.34 no.4
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• pp.280-287
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• 2012

The sources of greenhouse gases (GHG) at Hanyang University Ansan campus, including direct sources, indirect sources, and others, were investigated in order to establish the GHG inventory. Emission of GHG was calculated with the energy use from each source from 2007 and 2009. The indirect emission (56.7%) due to the electricity significantly contributed to total GHG emission. The scenario for the GHG reduction was designed for both campus administration and members. The reduction potential of GHG was simulated from 2007 to 2020 using Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning (LEAP) model. In case of GHG reduction scenario by campus administration, the GHG can be reduced by 63.34 ton $CO_{2eq}/yr$ for stationary combustion in the direct source, by 221.1 ton $CO_{2eq}/yr$ for mobile combustion in the direct source, and by 4,637.34 ton $CO_{2eq}/yr$ for lighting in the indirect source, compared to 2020 Business As Usual (BAU). In case of GHG reduction action scenario by campus members, the reduction potential of GHG was 1293.76 ton $CO_{2eq}/yr$. Overall, the total GHG emissions in 2020 by the both scenarios can be decreased by 24% compared to 2020 BAU.

• Journal of Environmental Impact Assessment
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• v.8 no.1
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• pp.29-40
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• 1999

This study focuses on one of typical energy-intensive industries, the cement industry. The purpose of the study is to propose $SO_2$ emission reduction measures in the cement industry. This study partially employed and modified AIM(Asia-Pacific Integrated Model) developed by Japan National Environmental Research Institute to develop AIM/KOREA SULFUR model for simulation. In the study, a base scenario, and mitigation scenarios(a use of low-sulfur contain fuel, fuel conversion to cleaner energy, an induction of desulfurization systems, and energy saving) were employed. The results of the simulation are summarized below: The sulphur dioxide emission from the cement industry in 1992 was estimated to be 106,000 metric tons; however, according to base scenario, sulphur dioxide emission is expected to be increased to 219,000 metric tons, which is 2.1 times greater than that in 1992 by year 2020. To alleviate such increasement, simulation results under various scenarios proved that some degrees of reduction may be possible by an induction of desulfulization systems although there may be numerous ways to interpretate the simulation results.

• Industrial Engineering and Management Systems
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• v.15 no.4
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• pp.307-317
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• 2016

According to most of energy sector experts, at least in the next two decades, fossil energy plays important role in fulfilling required energy in the world. Based on these conditions, the investigation of the conditions of major countries providing natural gas in the world can be useful in analysis of future development of this clean fuel. According to the latest estimations of British Petroleum Company, Iran with 18.2% natural gas reservoirs has the first natural gas reservoirs in the world. The main purpose of this paper is developing scenarios of gas industry in Iran. To achieve the mentioned goals, besides investigation of existing methods of scenario design and existing production scenarios, natural gas export and consumption in Iran and the world in 2035, the most important scenarios of gas industry in Iran are formulated by critical uncertainty analysis approach using quantitative advanced time based impact analysis in 2035 horizon.