• Proceedings of the KOR-KST Conference
• /
• 1995.12a
• /
• pp.45-73
• /
• 1995

The current paper presents a system dynamics model which can generate the land use anq transportation system performance simultaneously is proposed. The model system consists of 7 submodels (population, migration of population, household, job growth-employment-land availability, housing development, travel demand, and traffic congestion level), and each of them is designed based on the causality functions and feedback loop structure between a large number of physical, socio-economic, and policy variables. The important advantages of the system dynamics model are as follows. First, the model can address the complex interactions between land use and transportation system performance dynamically. Therefore, it can be an effective tool for evaluating the time-by-time effect of a policy over time horizons. Secondly, the system dynamics model is not relied on the assumption of equilibrium state of urban systems as in conventional models since it determines the state of model components directly through dynamic system simulation. Thirdly, the system dynamics model is very flexible in reflecting new features, such as a policy, a new phenomenon which has not existed in the past, a special event, or a useful concept from other methodology, since it consists of a lots of separated equations. In Chapter I, II, and III, overall approach and structure of the model system are discussed with causal-loop diagrams and major equations. In Chapter V _, the performance of the developed model is applied to the analysis of the impact of highway capacity expansion on land use for the area of Montgomery County, MD. The year-by-year impacts of highway capacity expansion on congestion level and land use are analyzed with some possible scenarios for the highway capacity expansion. This is a first comprehensive attempt to use dynamic system simulation modeling in simultaneous treatment of land use and transportation system interactions. The model structure is not very elaborate mainly due to the problem of the availability of behavioral data, but the model performance results indicate that the proposed approach can be a promising one in dealing comprehensively with complicated urban land use/transportation system.