• Title/Summary/Keyword: employment prediction model

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The Factors of Participating in a Smoking Cessation Program using Integrated Method of Decision Tree and Neural Network Algorithm (인공신경망 분석과 결정트리 융합에 의한 금연 프로그램 참여 결정 요인)

  • Byeon, Haewon
    • Journal of the Korea Convergence Society
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    • v.6 no.2
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    • pp.25-30
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    • 2015
  • The purpose of this study was to analyze the factors that affects the participating in a smoking cessation program. Data were from the A Study on the Seoul Welfare Panel Study 2010. Subjects were 1,326 smokers aged 19 and older living in the community. Dependent variable was defined as experience of smoking cessation. Explanatory variables were included as age, gender, level of education, employment status, household income, marital status, drinking, self-reported health status, depression, disease, and physical activity. A prediction model was developed by the use of a Decision Tree and Neural Network Algorithm. In the Prediction model, self reported health status, disease, income, household income were significantly associated with participating in a smoking cessation program. Based this study, systematic education and development of programs are required.

The Prediction of Industrial Accident Rate in Korea: A Time Series Analysis (시계열분석을 통한 산업재해율 예측)

  • Choi, Eunsuk;Jeon, Gyeong-Suk;Lee, Won Kee;Kim, Young Sun
    • Korean Journal of Occupational Health Nursing
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    • v.25 no.1
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    • pp.65-74
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    • 2016
  • Purpose: The purpose of this study is to predict industrial accident rate using time series analysis. Methods: The rates of industrial accident and occupational injury death were analyzed using industrial accident statistics analysis system of the Korea Occupational Safety and Health Agency from 2001 to 2014. Time series analysis was done using the most recent data, such as raw materials of Economically Active Population Survey, Economic Statistics System of the Bank of Korea, and e-National indicators. The best-fit model with time series analysis to predict occupational injury was developed by identifying predictors when the value of Akaike Information Criteria was the lowest point. Variables into the model were selected through a series of expertises' consultations and literature review, which consisted of socioeconomic structure, labor force structure, working conditions, and occupational accidents. Results: Indexes at the meso- and macro-levels predicting well occurrence of occupational accidents and occupational injury death were labor force participation rate for ages 45-49 and budget for small scaled workplace support. The rates of industrial accident and occupational injury death are expected to decline. Conclusion: For reducing industrial accident continuously, we call for safe employment policy of economically active middle aged adults and support for improving safety work environment of small sized workplace.

An Exploratory Methodology for Longitudinal Data Analysis Using SOM Clustering (자기조직화지도 클러스터링을 이용한 종단자료의 탐색적 분석방법론)

  • Cho, Yeong Bin
    • Journal of Convergence for Information Technology
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    • v.12 no.5
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    • pp.100-106
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    • 2022
  • A longitudinal study refers to a research method based on longitudinal data repeatedly measured on the same object. Most of the longitudinal analysis methods are suitable for prediction or inference, and are often not suitable for use in exploratory study. In this study, an exploratory method to analyze longitudinal data is presented, which is to find the longitudinal trajectory after determining the best number of clusters by clustering longitudinal data using self-organizing map technique. The proposed methodology was applied to the longitudinal data of the Employment Information Service, and a total of 2,610 samples were analyzed. As a result of applying the methodology to the actual data applied, time-series clustering results were obtained for each panel. This indicates that it is more effective to cluster longitudinal data in advance and perform multilevel longitudinal analysis.

The effects of satisfaction with major, and dental hygiene professionalism on career preparation behavior of dental hygiene students (치위생(학)과 학생의 전공만족도, 치위생전문직관이 진로준비행동에 미치는 영향)

  • Ji-Hyoung Han;Min-Young Kim
    • Journal of Korean society of Dental Hygiene
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    • v.23 no.5
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    • pp.387-393
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    • 2023
  • Objectives: This study was attempted in order to understand about the satisfaction with major and the dental hygiene professionalism in dental hygiene students and to grasp the factors affecting the career preparation behavior. Methods: The research subjects included 264 juniors and seniors who are attending dental hygiene department across Korea (three locations in Gyeonggi province, one locations in Daejeon, four locations in Jeolla province, and one locations in Daegu). Data were collected using the online questionnaire between March 6 to April 7, 2023. The chosen data analysis method included descriptive statistical analysis, t-test, one-way ANOVA, Pearson's correlation coefficient, and stepwise multiple linear regression. Results: The following average scores were obtained from those surveyed: 3.25 points concerning career preparation behavior, 3.83 points concerning the respondent's satisfaction with their major, and 3.45 points concerning dental hygiene professionalism. As for a difference in career preparation behavior according to general characteristics, a meaningful difference was shown in terms of gender, motivation for entering the field, and first desired employment. Aspects of career preparation behavior, satisfaction with one's major, and dental hygiene professionalism showed a significant correlation and were confirmed to explain the prediction of 29.1% of the variation in the regression model. Conclusions: For the sake of having an integrated understanding about career preparation behavior among dental hygiene students, there is a need to conduct repeated research on diverse variables and to inquire into a causal relationships between such variables.

A Study on the Prediction Model of the Elderly Depression

  • SEO, Beom-Seok;SUH, Eung-Kyo;KIM, Tae-Hyeong
    • The Journal of Industrial Distribution & Business
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    • v.11 no.7
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    • pp.29-40
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    • 2020
  • Purpose: In modern society, many urban problems are occurring, such as aging, hollowing out old city centers and polarization within cities. In this study, we intend to apply big data and machine learning methodologies to predict depression symptoms in the elderly population early on, thus contributing to solving the problem of elderly depression. Research design, data and methodology: Machine learning techniques used random forest and analyzed the correlation between CES-D10 and other variables, which are widely used worldwide, to estimate important variables. Dependent variables were set up as two variables that distinguish normal/depression from moderate/severe depression, and a total of 106 independent variables were included, including subjective health conditions, cognitive abilities, and daily life quality surveys, as well as the objective characteristics of the elderly as well as the subjective health, health, employment, household background, income, consumption, assets, subjective expectations, and quality of life surveys. Results: Studies have shown that satisfaction with residential areas and quality of life and cognitive ability scores have important effects in classifying elderly depression, satisfaction with living quality and economic conditions, and number of outpatient care in living areas and clinics have been important variables. In addition, the results of a random forest performance evaluation, the accuracy of classification model that classify whether elderly depression or not was 86.3%, the sensitivity 79.5%, and the specificity 93.3%. And the accuracy of classification model the degree of elderly depression was 86.1%, sensitivity 93.9% and specificity 74.7%. Conclusions: In this study, the important variables of the estimated predictive model were identified using the random forest technique and the study was conducted with a focus on the predictive performance itself. Although there are limitations in research, such as the lack of clear criteria for the classification of depression levels and the failure to reflect variables other than KLoSA data, it is expected that if additional variables are secured in the future and high-performance predictive models are estimated and utilized through various machine learning techniques, it will be able to consider ways to improve the quality of life of senior citizens through early detection of depression and thus help them make public policy decisions.

Development of Yóukè Mining System with Yóukè's Travel Demand and Insight Based on Web Search Traffic Information (웹검색 트래픽 정보를 활용한 유커 인바운드 여행 수요 예측 모형 및 유커마이닝 시스템 개발)

  • Choi, Youji;Park, Do-Hyung
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.23 no.3
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    • pp.155-175
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    • 2017
  • As social data become into the spotlight, mainstream web search engines provide data indicate how many people searched specific keyword: Web Search Traffic data. Web search traffic information is collection of each crowd that search for specific keyword. In a various area, web search traffic can be used as one of useful variables that represent the attention of common users on specific interests. A lot of studies uses web search traffic data to nowcast or forecast social phenomenon such as epidemic prediction, consumer pattern analysis, product life cycle, financial invest modeling and so on. Also web search traffic data have begun to be applied to predict tourist inbound. Proper demand prediction is needed because tourism is high value-added industry as increasing employment and foreign exchange. Among those tourists, especially Chinese tourists: Youke is continuously growing nowadays, Youke has been largest tourist inbound of Korea tourism for many years and tourism profits per one Youke as well. It is important that research into proper demand prediction approaches of Youke in both public and private sector. Accurate tourism demands prediction is important to efficient decision making in a limited resource. This study suggests improved model that reflects latest issue of society by presented the attention from group of individual. Trip abroad is generally high-involvement activity so that potential tourists likely deep into searching for information about their own trip. Web search traffic data presents tourists' attention in the process of preparation their journey instantaneous and dynamic way. So that this study attempted select key words that potential Chinese tourists likely searched out internet. Baidu-Chinese biggest web search engine that share over 80%- provides users with accessing to web search traffic data. Qualitative interview with potential tourists helps us to understand the information search behavior before a trip and identify the keywords for this study. Selected key words of web search traffic are categorized by how much directly related to "Korean Tourism" in a three levels. Classifying categories helps to find out which keyword can explain Youke inbound demands from close one to far one as distance of category. Web search traffic data of each key words gathered by web crawler developed to crawling web search data onto Baidu Index. Using automatically gathered variable data, linear model is designed by multiple regression analysis for suitable for operational application of decision and policy making because of easiness to explanation about variables' effective relationship. After regression linear models have composed, comparing with model composed traditional variables and model additional input web search traffic data variables to traditional model has conducted by significance and R squared. after comparing performance of models, final model is composed. Final regression model has improved explanation and advantage of real-time immediacy and convenience than traditional model. Furthermore, this study demonstrates system intuitively visualized to general use -Youke Mining solution has several functions of tourist decision making including embed final regression model. Youke Mining solution has algorithm based on data science and well-designed simple interface. In the end this research suggests three significant meanings on theoretical, practical and political aspects. Theoretically, Youke Mining system and the model in this research are the first step on the Youke inbound prediction using interactive and instant variable: web search traffic information represents tourists' attention while prepare their trip. Baidu web search traffic data has more than 80% of web search engine market. Practically, Baidu data could represent attention of the potential tourists who prepare their own tour as real-time. Finally, in political way, designed Chinese tourist demands prediction model based on web search traffic can be used to tourism decision making for efficient managing of resource and optimizing opportunity for successful policy.

Risk-based Profit Prediction Model for International Construction Projects (해외건설공사의 리스크 분석에 기초한 수익성 예측모델에 관한 연구)

  • Han, Seung-Heon;Kim, Du-Yon
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.26 no.4D
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    • pp.635-647
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    • 2006
  • Korean construction companies first advanced to the international markets in 1960's and so far have brought more than 4,900 projects which account for 193 billion dollars approximately. With the large increase of national employment and income being followed by the achievement, Korea's construction industry has made an enormous contribution to the improvement of domestic economy for the last 40 years. However, recently the increased risk in international markets as well as the sharpening competition with foreign companies promising in terms of advanced technologies and low labor cost have been driving Korean construction away from the market shares. According to ENR (Engineering News Record, 1994~2003), it is revealed that 15.1% of top 225 global contractors are suffering from loss in international construction markets. This phenomenon is largely due to the highly uncertain characteristics of international projects, which are inherently exposed to various and complicated risky situations. Furthermore, especially for Korean construction companies, it is often the case that the failure in an international construction project cannot be offset by even a sufficient number of successful domestic achievements. Therefore, not only the selective screening among the nominated projects which have strong possibility of collapse but the systematic strategies for controlling potential risk factors are also considered indispensable in international construction portfolio management. The purpose of this study is to first analyze the causal relationships of the profit-influencing variables and the project success, and develop the profitability forecasting model in international construction projects.

The Determinants of New Supply in the Seoul Office Market and their Dynamic Relationship (서울 오피스 신규 공급 결정요인과 동태적 관계분석)

  • Yang, Hye-Seon;Kang, Chang-Deok
    • Journal of Cadastre & Land InformatiX
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    • v.47 no.2
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    • pp.159-174
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    • 2017
  • The long-term imbalances between supply and demand in office market can weaken urban growth since excessive supply of offices led to office market instability and excessive demand of offices weakens growth of urban industry. Recently, there have been a lot of new large-scale supplies, which increased volatility in Seoul office market. Nevertheless, new supply of Seoul office has not been fully examined. Given this, the focus of this article was on confirming the influences of profitability, replacement cost, and demand on new office supplies in Seoul. In examining those influences, another focus was on their relative influences over time. For these purposes, we analyzed quarterly data of Seoul office market between 2003 and 2015 using a vector error correction model (VECM). As a result, in terms of the influences on the current new supply, the impact of supply before the first quarter was negative, while that of office employment before the first quarter was positive. Also, that of interest rate before the second quarter was positive, while those of cap rate before the first quarter and cap rate before the second quarter were negative. Based on the findings, it is suggested that prediction models on Seoul offices need to be developed considering the influences of profitability, replacement cost, and demand on new office supplies in Seoul.