• 제목/요약/키워드: employment fluctuations

검색결과 23건 처리시간 0.019초

노동력수급의 요인분석과 전망 (An Empirical Analysis of The Determinants and Long-term Projections for The Demand and Supply of Labor force)

  • 김중수
    • 한국인구학
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    • 제9권1호
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    • pp.41-53
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    • 1986
  • The purpose of this paper is two-fold. One is to investigate the determinants of the demand supply of labor, and another is to project long-term demand and supply of labor. The paper consists of three parts. In the first part, theoretical models and important hypotheses are discussed: for the case of a labor supply model, issues regarding discouraged worker model, permanent wage hypothesis, and relative wage hypothesis are examined and for the case of a demand model, issues regarding estimating an employment demand equation within the framework of an inverted short-run produc- tion function are inspected. Particularly, a theoretical justification for introducing a demographic cohort variable in a labor supply equation is also investigated. In the second part, empirical results of the estimated supply and demand equations are analyzed. Supply equations are specified differently between primary and secondary labor force. That is, for the case of primary labor force groups including males aged 25 and over, attempts are made to explain the variations in participation behavior within the framework of a neo-classical economics oriented permanent wage hypothesis. On the other hand, for the case of females and young male labor force, variations in participation rates are explained in terms of a relative wage hypothesis. In other words, the participation behavior of primary labor force is related to short-rum business fluctuations, while that of secondary labor force is associated with intermediate swings of business cycles and demographic changes in the age structure of population. Some major findings arc summarized as follows. (1) For the case of males aged 14~19 and 2O~24 groups and females aged 14∼19, the effect of schhool enrollment rate is dominant and thus it plays a key role in explaining the recent declining trend of participation rates of these groups. (2) Except for females aged 20∼24, a demographic cohort variable, which captures the impact of changes in the age structure on participation behavior, turns out to show positive and significant coefficients for secondary labor force groups. (3) A cyclical variable produce significant coefficients for prime-age males and females reflecting that as compared to other groups the labor supply behavior of these groups is more closely related to short-run cyclical variations (4) The wage variable, which represents a labor-leisure trade-off turns out to yield significant coefficients only for older age groups (6O and over) for both males and females. This result reveals that unlike the experiences of other higer-income nations, the participation decision of the labor force of our nation is not highly sensitive with respect to wage changes. (5)The estimated result of the employment demand equation displays that given that the level of GNP remains constant the ability of the economy to absord labor force has been declining;that is, the elasticity of GNP with respect to labor absorption decreasre over time. In the third part, the results of long-term projections (for the period of 1986 and 1995) for age-sex specific participation rates are discussed. The participation rate of total males is anticipated to increase slightly, which is contrary to the recent trend of declining participation rates of this group. For the groups aged 25 and below, the participation rates are forecast to decline although the magnitude of decrease is likely to shrink. On the other hand, the participation rate of prime- age males (25 to 59 years old) is predicted to increase slightly during 1985 and 1990. For the case of females, except for 20∼24 and 25∼34 age groups, the participation rates are projected to decrease: the participation rates of 25∼34 age group is likely to remain at its current level, while the participation rate of 20∼24 age group is expected to increase considerably in the future (specifi- cally, from 55% in 1985 to 61% in 1990 and to 69% in 1995). In conclusion, while the number of an excess supply of labor will increase in absolute magnitude, its size as a ratio of total labor force is not likely to increase. However, the age composition of labor force is predicted to change; that is, the proportion of prime-age male and female labor force is projected to increase.

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부정기선 운임율의 결정에 관한 이론적 고찰 (A Study on the Determination of Tramp Freight Rates)

  • 이종인
    • 한국항해학회지
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    • 제4권2호
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    • pp.45-79
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    • 1980
  • The aim of this paper is to analyze the mechanics of price formation in the tramp shipping. For the purpose of this study, the main characteristics of tramp freight rates and the market is examined, and a brief examination of the nature ofthe costs of operation is given which are essential for the understanding of the functioning of shipping firms as well as for the understanding of developments in the tramp freight market. The demand and supply relationships in the market is also analysed in detail. Tramp shipping is an industry that has a market which functions under conditions that are not dissimilar to the theoretical model of perfect competition. However, it does notmean that tramp shipping market is a perfectly competitive market. It is apparent that this realworld competitive system has its imperfections, which means that the market for tramp shipping is near to being a perfectly competitive market on an internaitonal scale and it is freight are therefore subjext to the laws of supply and demand. In theory, the minimum freight rate in the short term is that at which the lowest cost vessels will lay-up in preference to operating, and is equal to the variable costs minus lay-up costs; and this would imply that in all times except those of full employment for ships there is a tendency for newer low-cost, and, probably, faster vessels to be driving the older high-cost vessels in the breaker's yards. In this case, shipowners may be reluctant to lay-up their ships becasue of obligations to crews, or because they would lose credibility with shippers or financiers, or simply because of lost prestige. Mainly, however, the decision is made on strictly economic grounds. When, for example, the total operating costs minus the likely freight earnings are greater than the cost of taking the ship out of service, maintaining it, and recommissioning it, then a ship may be considered for laying-up; shipowners will, in other words, run the ships at freight earnings below operating costs by as much as the cost of laying them up. As described above, the freight rates fixed on the tramp shipping market are subject to the laws of supply and demand. In other words, the basic properties of supply and demand are of significance so far as price or rate fluctuations in the tramp freight market are concerned. In connection with the same of the demand for tramp shipping services, the following points should be brone in mind: (a) That the magnitude of demand for sea transport of dry cargoes in general and for tramp shipping services in particular is increasing in the long run. (b) That owning to external factors, the demand for tramp shipping services is capable of varying sharphy at a given going of time. (c) The demad for the industry's services tends to be price inelastic in the short run. On the other hand the demand for the services offered by the individual shipping firm tends as a rule to be infinitely price elastic. In the meantime, the properties of the supply of the tramp shipping facilities are that it cannot expand or contract in the short run. Also, that in the long run there is a time-lag between entrepreneurs' decision to expand their fleets and the actual time of delivery of the new vessels. Thus, supply is inelastic and not capable of responding to demand and price changes at a given period of time. In conclusion, it can be safely stated that short-run changes in freight rates are a direct result of variations in the magnitude of demand for tramp shipping facilities, whilest the average level of freight rates is brought down to relatively low levels over prolonged periods of time.

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산간농촌 노년층의 소달구지 이용관행과 그 의미 (The Customary Employment of So Dalguji(Ox-Cart) among the Old Generation in a Mountain Village and its implication)

  • 손대원
    • 헤리티지:역사와 과학
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    • 제44권4호
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    • pp.42-55
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    • 2011
  • 이 연구의 기본적인 접근방법은 문화변동론적 시각에서, 소달구지 이용의 근현대적 양상이 어떠하며 그것이 갖는 사회 경제적 적절성과 문화적 의미를 탐구하는 것이다. 이 연구는 한 마을의 자연지리적 경제적 문화적 특성에 따라서 전통적 문화요소가 어떻게 지속 변용되는지를 이해하는 데 참고가 될 수 있으리라 기대한다. 조사지역인 경북 군위군 부계면 가호 2리인 동림마을에서는 소달구지를 일제강점기부터 이용하여 왔으며, 1972년 저수지 축조를 계기로 전통적 소달구지를 개량소달구지로 교체하였다. 1970년대까지는 소달구지로 농산물과 짐을 운반하고, 멀리 부계면이나 군위읍 소재 장터까지 소달구지를 타고 다녔다. 그러다가 1980년대 초반 경운기 도입 이후 소달구지는 마을에서 서서히 사라지면서 단순한 이동수단으로 그 기능이 변했다. 반면 젊은층은 현대식 운송수단을 적극적으로 도입하면서 1980년대에는 경운기가, 1990년 후반부터는 트럭이 마을의 주요 운송수단으로 자리 잡았다. 그럼에도 70대 이상의 노인들은 계속 소달구지를 이용하였다. 노인들은 노동력이 고령화되어, 현대식 운송수단을 사용하지 못하는 상황에서 경사진 농토를 경작하고, 원거리에 분산된 농토에 쉽게 접근하기 위해서 소를 사육하면서 소달구지를 개량하여 지속적으로 이용하고 있다. 동림마을의 개량형 소달구지 이용 전통은 노령의 농민들이 적정기술(appropriate technology)을 실천하는 것이며 고령화된 농촌사회의 문화적 표상이기도 하다. 즉, 노인들이 전통문화의 적합성과 실용성을 인정하여 소달구지라는 전통적 운송수단을 재창조하게 되었다. 그리고 산간농촌이라는 지리적 제약조건 속에서 남녀 노인들이 소달구지를 즐겨 이용하는 현상은 동림마을 노인들의 문화적 표상으로 자리 잡고 있다. 동림마을에서 소달구지가 지속적으로 이용되는 것은 농민들이 고령화되면서, 소달구지가 마을의 자연지리적 경제적 측면과 노인들의 문화적 관성이 잘 부합되기 때문이다. 따라서 사람들은 자신이 처한 제반 상황과 조건에 맞게 문화를 전승 변용한다는 사실을 알 수 있다.