• The Journal of the Convergence on Culture Technology
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• v.4 no.4
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• pp.155-160
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• 2018

The article studies the effect of US real effective exchange rate and short-term interest rate on Chnise exports and imports using the EGARCH-GED model. This article analyze the effect of US major economic variables on China's exports and imports as the US pushes for interest rate hikes and worsens trade wars with China. The main results are as follows. The US short-term interest rate has a significant positive effect on China's trade volume. Even in the case of China's exports, US short-term interest rate has a significant positive effect. However, in the case of China's imports, in contrast to exports, US short-term interest rate do not have a significant effects and US real effective exchange rate has a significant positive effect. On the other hand, China's policy interest rate has a negative impact on China's imports and not statistically significant, but it has a significant positive effect on China's exports.

• Journal of Labour Economics
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• v.40 no.1
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• pp.37-68
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• 2017

This study analyzes the relationship between household debts and married female's labor supply. For doing this we construct effective interest rate faced by each household using interest paid amount and household financial debt amount. The effective interests rate for the households which have no financial debt are estimated by Heckman Selection model. The estimation results show that the increase in effective interest rate has led to the expansion of married women's the labor market participation. This suggests a possibility that negative scenarios resulting from an increase in interest rate can be partially offset by an increase in household labor supply and a rise in labor income.

• Journal of the Architectural Institute of Korea Structure & Construction
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• v.35 no.1
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• pp.47-56
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• 2019

As the zero interest rate era was over with the end of quantitative easing, the economy of several global markets observed the fluctuations of the base interest rate. Interest rate, which is the change of money value with respect to time, is negatively correlated with construction investment. Considering the characteristics of interest rates and construction investment as economic variables, the necessity of cross-border analysis between base interest rate and construction investment was suggested in this paper. Cross-correlation analysis between base interest rates and construction investment crossing the border was performed. The effective correlations were confirmed with values varying by countries. Similar characteristics were also observed among countries with similar economy, which were then divided into three groups. Additionally, identifying the base interest rate that affects the construction investment of a particular country was made possible by reflecting a self-cycle of base interest rates. Lastly, from the result of examining the influence of each rise and fall of the interest rate, it was verified that the difference was more than twice as large in some countries. These results are expected to contribute to construction-related policy makers or investors to make decisions in response to the economic status of the construction market.

• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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• v.4 no.1
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• pp.19-23
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• 2017

Based on a simultaneous-equation model consisting of aggregate demand and short-run aggregate supply, this paper estimates a reduced-form equation specifying that the equilibrium real GDP is a function of the real effective exchange rate, the government deficit as a percent of GDP, the real interest rate, foreign income, labor productivity, the real oil price, the expected inflation rate, and the interactive and intercept binary variables accounting for a potential change in the slope of the real effective exchange rate and shift in the intercept. Applying the exponential GARCH technique, it finds that aggregate output in Australia has a positive relationship with the real effective exchange rate during 2003.Q3 - 2013.Q2, the government deficit as a percent of GDP, U.S. real GDP, labor productivity and the real oil price and a negative relationship with the real effective exchange rate during 2013.Q3 - 2016.Q1, the real lending rate and the expected inflation rate. These results suggest that real appreciation was expansionary before 2013.Q3 whereas real depreciation was expansionary after 2013.Q2 and that more government deficit as a percent of GDP would be helpful to stimulate the economy. Hence, the impact of real appreciation or real depreciation on real GDP may change overtime.

• Journal of Korea Trade
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• v.26 no.2
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• pp.21-44
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• 2022

Purpose - This study quantifies sources of trade balance dynamics over the business cycle in Korea. Specifically, we quantify the relative importance of domestic and foreign factors on trade balance dynamics using a small open economy real business cycle (SOE-RBC) model and provide policy implications for stabilization policies. Aggregate productivity and interest rate spreads are considered domestic factors affecting the trade balance. A world interest rate (the U.S. interest rate) is considered a foreign factor. Design/methodology - Following Neumeyer and Perri (2005), we build the SOE-RBC model with three types of shocks: aggregate productivity, interest rate spread, and world interest shocks. The model is estimated by the generalized method of moments (GMM) using relevant business cycle statistics. The estimated model is used for quantifying the relative importance of domestic and foreign factors on trade balance dynamics in Korea. Findings - Our main findings can be summarized as follows: 85.64% of the trade balance fluctuations in Korea are explained by domestic factors, the remaining 14.35% by foreign factors. Particularly, trade balance dynamics are mostly accounted for by the change in aggregate productivity shocks (85.58%). World interest rate shocks considerably explain trade balance (14.35%), whereas the role of interest rate spread shocks that represent domestic risks is limited (0.08%). Although aggregate productivity is key in explaining trade balance dynamics in Korea, interest rates still have an essential role. This is because aggregate productivity changes induce interest rate spread variations and, thus, the trade balance significantly. The results suggest that government policies mitigating fluctuations in aggregate productivity would be effective for stabilization policies in Korea by reducing the trade balance volatility. Originality/value - Existing studies on the emerging market business cycle examine mostly Latin American countries, and the main object of the studies is the volatility of consumption rather than trade balance dynamics. Conversely, our study examines Korea rather than Latin American countries. Additionally, we examine sources of trade balance dynamics, which are relatively more important in Korea, rather than those of the volatility of consumption. Hence, we estimate the model to explicitly match moments related to trade balance in the data.

• Journal of the Korean Home Economics Association
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• v.49 no.8
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• pp.37-46
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• 2011

Using the 1987-2008 quarterly aggregated data of the Household Income and Expenditure Survey, this study investigated the factors influencing household saving rate. The independent variables in the AR regression model were the GDP growth rate, shares of the total household expenditure allocated to tax & social insurance, and education, the variables reflecting the conditions of the asset market including interest rate, stock market index, and real estate price index, and the variables representing the social economic conditions including the index of aging and income inequality. Among the independent variables interest rate, stock market index, and income inequality were found to be significantly associated with the household saving rate. These results suggested that the redistribution and financial market policies favorable to savers may be effective for raising the household saving rate.

• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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• v.9 no.2
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• pp.29-36
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• 2022

This study uses the panel probit model to investigate and evaluate the relationship between exchange rate regimes, political stability, and carbon dioxide during currency crises. To understand currency crisis times, we study a panel dataset of seven South Asian nations that contain annual observations from 1996 to 2020. Furthermore, we created the EMPI exchange market pressure indicator to detect crises. Our results strongly suggested that fixed exchange rate is negatively associated with currency crises, with good regulatory quality and better effective governments. Simultaneously, the floating exchange rate is positively related to the currency crises in those countries where the rule of law has less adequately flowed. However, CO₂, exports, and interest rates are buoyantly associated with crises. The floating exchange rate, the rule of law, exports, and interest rate are associated positively and contribute more prone to the crisis episodes. Negatively associated variables contributed less amid crises episodes: fixed exchange rate regime, government effectiveness, and regulatory quality. Meanwhile, CO₂ has a positive relationship with a currency crisis and contributes more likelihood to the probability of a currency crisis. Countries that adopted the fixed exchange rates with effective governments and regulatory quality faced more minor currency crises.

• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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• v.5 no.1
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• pp.5-9
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• 2018

Many developing countries have attempted to depreciate their currencies in order to make their products cheaper, stimulate exports, shift aggregate demand to the right, and increase aggregate output. However, currency depreciation tends to increase import prices, raise domestic inflation, reduce capital inflows, and shift aggregate supply to the left. The net impact is unclear. The paper incorporates the monetary policy function in the model, which is determined by the inflation gap, the output gap, the real effective exchange rate, and the world real interest rate. Applying an extended IS-MP-AS model (Romer, 2000), the paper finds that real depreciation raised real GDP during 1997.Q1-2005.Q3 whereas real appreciation increased real GDP during 2005.Q4-2017.Q2. In addition, a higher government debt-to-GDP ratio, a lower U.S. real federal funds rate, a higher real stock price, a lower real oil price or a lower expected inflation rate would help increase real GDP. Hence, real depreciation or real appreciation may increase or reduce aggregate output, depending upon the level of economic development. Although expansionary fiscal policy is effective in stimulating the economy, caution needs to be exercised as there may be a debt threshold beyond which a further increase in the debt-to-GDO ratio would hurt economic growth.

• The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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• v.30 no.6
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• pp.993-1004
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• 2017

A stratified sampling method is generally used with a sample selected using the same sample weight in each stratum in order to improve the accuracy of the sampling survey estimation. However, the weight should be adjusted to reflect the response rate if the response rate is affected by the value of the variable of interest. It may be also more effective to adjust the weights by subdividing the stratum rather than using the same weight if the variable of interest has a linear relationship with the continuous auxiliary variables. In this study, we propose a method to increase the accuracy of estimation using an informative sampling design technique when the response rate is an exponential function of the variable of interest and the variable of interest has a linear relationship with the auxiliary variable. Simulation results show the superiority of the proposed method.

• East Asian Journal of Business Economics (EAJBE)
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• v.4 no.4
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• pp.1-7
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• 2016

This paper has studied the impacts of the exchange rate, government debt as a percent of GDP and other relevant macroeconomic variables on aggregate output in the Philippines. A simultaneous-equation model consisting of aggregate demand and short-run aggregate supply is applied. The dummy variable technique is employed to detect whether the slope and intercept of the real effective exchange rate may have changed. Real depreciation during 1998.Q1 - 2006.Q3, real appreciation during 2006.Q4 - 2016.Q1, a lower domestic debt as a percent of GDP, a lower real interest rate, a higher stock price or a higher lagged real oil price would raise aggregate output. Recent trends of real peso appreciation, declining domestic debt as a percent of GDP, lower real interest rates, and rising stock prices are in line with the empirical results and would promote economic growth. The authorities may need to continue to pursue fiscal prudence and maintain a stronger peso as the positive effect of real appreciation dominates its negative effect in recent years.