• Title/Summary/Keyword: economic estimation

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Analysis of ASEAN's Stock Returns and/or Volatility Distribution under the Impact of the Chinese EPU: Evidence Based on Conditional Kernel Density Approach

  • Mohib Ur Rahman;Irfan Ullah;Aurang Zeb
    • East Asian Economic Review
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    • v.27 no.1
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    • pp.33-60
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    • 2023
  • This paper analyzes the entire distribution of stock market returns/volatility in five emerging markets (ASEAN5) and figures out the conditional distribution of the CHI_EPU index. The aim is to examine the impact of CHI_EPU on the stock returns/volatility density of ASEAN5 markets. It also examined whether changes in CHI_EPU explain returns at higher or lower points (abnormal returns). This paper models the behaviour of stock returns from March 2011 to June 2018 using a non-parametric conditional density estimation approach. The results indicate that CHI_EPU diminishes stock returns and augments volatility in ASEAN5 markets, except for Malaysia, where it affects stock returns positively. The possible reason for this positive impact is that EPU is not the leading factor reducing Malaysian stock returns; but, other forces, such as dependency on other countries' stock markets and global factors, may have a positive impact on stock returns (Bachmann and Bayer, 2013). Thus, the risk of simultaneous investment in Chinese and ASEAN5 stock markets, except Malaysia, is high. Further, the degree of this influence intensifies at extreme high/low intervals (positive/negative tails). The findings of this study have significant implications for investors, policymakers, market agents, and analysts of ASEAN5.

Estimation of Potential Population by IED(Improvised Explosive Device) in Intensive Apartment Area (아파트 밀집지역 급조폭발물 테러 발생 시 잠재피해인구 추정)

  • Lee, Kangsan;Choi, Jinmu
    • Journal of the Economic Geographical Society of Korea
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    • v.18 no.1
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    • pp.76-86
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    • 2015
  • In this study, we presented a method for estimating the potential population damage of the Seoul Nowon-gu area in the event of a terrorist using a vehicle improvised explosive devices (IED). Using the object-based building extraction method with orthophoto image, the area of the apartment has been determined, and the apartment's height and level were estimated based on the elevation data. Using the population estimation method based on total floor area of building, each apartment resident population was estimated, and then potential population damage at the time of terrorist attacks was estimated around the subway station through a scenario analysis. Terrorism damage using IED depends on the type of vehicle greatly because of the amount loadable explosives. Therefore, potential population damage was calculated based on the type of vehicle. In the results, the maximum potential damage population during terrorist attacks has been estimated to occur around Madeul station, Nowon-gu. The method used in this study can be used various population estimation research and disaster damage estimation.

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An Improvement of Function Point Models for Software Cost Estimation (소프트웨어 비용산정을 위한 기능점수 모형 개선 연구)

  • Kim, Hyeon-Su
    • The Transactions of the Korea Information Processing Society
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    • v.6 no.9
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    • pp.2403-2413
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    • 1999
  • There is a strong need to develop a software cost estimation model on economic value perspective. The objective of this research is to improve current software cost estimation method on economic value perspective. We reviewed domestic and foreign researches and practices on software cost estimation with function point method, and derived promising alternative models. Pilot simulation was performed with real project data, and the probable best model was chosen. We collected data from 39 Korean companies, and assesed statistical significance of the model with those data. Empirical data shows that more practical model has better prediction accuracy. That is, the number of input and output modules, the number of tables, and the number of algorithms are chosen to be best set of functions. There exists strong correlation between the calculated function points and project effort. And, the revised set of technical complexity factors and evaluation guidelines show practical usefulness. We suggest that the above result be incorporated in a new improved guideline for software cost estimation. By adopting the results of this research to the guideline, we expect that technology innovation will be expedited, and that overall productivity of software industry will be increased.

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How the Pattern Recognition Ability of Deep Learning Enhances Housing Price Estimation (딥러닝의 패턴 인식능력을 활용한 주택가격 추정)

  • Kim, Jinseok;Kim, Kyung-Min
    • Journal of the Economic Geographical Society of Korea
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    • v.25 no.1
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    • pp.183-201
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    • 2022
  • Estimating the implicit value of housing assets is a very important task for participants in the housing market. Until now, such estimations were usually carried out using multiple regression analysis based on the inherent characteristics of the estate. However, in this paper, we examine the estimation capabilities of the Artificial Neural Network(ANN) and its 'Deep Learning' faculty. To make use of the strength of the neural network model, which allows the recognition of patterns in data by modeling non-linear and complex relationships between variables, this study utilizes geographic coordinates (i.e. longitudinal/latitudinal points) as the locational factor of housing prices. Specifically, we built a dataset including structural and spatiotemporal factors based on the hedonic price model and compared the estimation performance of the models with and without geographic coordinate variables. The results show that high estimation performance can be achieved in ANN by explaining the spatial effect on housing prices through the geographic location.

Impact of Working Capital Management on Firm Performance in Different Business Cycles: Evidence from Vietnam

  • NGUYEN, Co Trong
    • The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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    • v.7 no.12
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    • pp.863-867
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    • 2020
  • This study was conducted on financial data of 38 economic groups listed on Vietnam's stock market for the period 2009 - 2019 and it aims to provide an empirical evidence on the impact of working capital management policy on performance in all phases of the economic cycle of Vietnamese economic groups. The study uses FGLS estimation method with 2 dependent variables ROA, GOP, independent variables including INV, AR, AP, CCC, dummy variable representing different phases of the economic cycle, variables Control includes CAT, CR, LEV, SZ, GR. Research shows that the greater the level of investment by companies in liquid assets corresponding to a certain level of activity (shown by average days of inventory (INV), average days of collection. (AR), cash flow cycle (CCC)) the lower the rate of return on assets. The study also provides additional evidence of the negative effects of economic crisis on the performance of economic groups. The study also shows that the number of short-term asset cycles has a positive impact on operational efficiency, and the level of debt use has a negative impact on operational efficiency. This result implies that the managers of economic groups can increase the efficiency of businesses through a reasonable working capital policy.

Critical Review of health care economic evaluation methodology : With a special reference to study design and cost estimation (보건의료 경제성 평가 방법론 고찰 -연구 설계와 비용 추정을 중심으로-)

  • ;Brouwer WBF
    • Health Policy and Management
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    • v.14 no.2
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    • pp.58-77
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    • 2004
  • Cost containment has become high political issues since financial crisis of the Korean Health Insurance fund in 2000. Korean Government has developed and implemented several measures to reduce the pharmaceutical expenditures. Pharmaceutical economic evaluation can be a tool in decision to allocate scare resource efficiently. In order to increase the quality of economic evaluation for pharmaceuticals, the Korean Health Insurance Review Agency(HIRA) is considering the development of a guideline for economic evaluation. It mandates that pharmaceutical companies could submit the result of an economic evaluation when demanding reimbursement of new pharmaceutical drugs. The purpose of this study is to provide a critical review of the economic evaluations of health care technologies published in the Korean context whether they have been performed according to current guidelines and therefore whether their results are directly useful for decision making. We found there exist important problems and deviation from, good practice' both in the general features of the studies, like the study design and perspective, and in terms of cost measurement and valuation. There are needs to develop clear guidelines and to educate and train researchers in performing economic evaluations.

Foreign Direct Investment and Economic Growth in SAARC Countries

  • Erum, Naila;Hussain, Shahzad;Yousaf, Abida
    • The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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    • v.3 no.4
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    • pp.57-66
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    • 2016
  • Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) plays a vital role in economic growth of the countries. The present study analyses the impact of the FDI on economic growth of South Asian Association of Regional Cooperation countries by using the pooled data for the period 1990-2014. Neo-classical production function has been used for analysis and getting stock-to-flow estimation, Taylor series approximation has applied. Fixed Effects Model has been used to investigate the impact of FDI, domestic capital, labour and government expenditures on economic growth. It is the evident from the results that both domestic investment and FDI have been a positive effect on economic growth. The study finds that the contribution of domestic private investment is more trustworthy than the contribution of FDI. Consequently, FDI loses its attraction as an engine of growth if the adverse balance of payment consequence of the resulting profit repatriating is also taken into account. The labour has positive and significant association with GDP. The effect of government expenditure is negligible on economic growth. The findings suggest that growth strategy cannot yield the long term benefits if it neglects investments on human capital.

A Techno-Economic Feasibility Analysis on LVDC Distribution System for Rural Electrification in South Korea

  • Afamefuna, David;Chung, Il-Yop;Hur, Don;Kim, Ju-Yong;Cho, Jintae
    • Journal of Electrical Engineering and Technology
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    • v.9 no.5
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    • pp.1501-1510
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    • 2014
  • Low voltage direct current (LVDC) distribution system is a suitable techno-economic candidate which can create an innovative solution for distribution network development with respect to rural electrification. This research focuses on the use of LVDC distribution system to replace some of KEPCO's existing traditional medium voltage alternating current (MVAC) distribution network for rural electrification in South Korea. Considering the technical and economic risks and benefits involved in such project, a comparative techno-economic analysis on the LVDC and the MVAC distribution networks is conducted using economic assessment method such as the net present value (NPV) on a discounted cash flow (DCF) basis as well as the sensitivity analysis technique. Each would play a role in an economic performance indicator and a measure of uncertainty and risk involved in the project. In this work, a simulation model and a computational tool are concurrently developed and employed to aid the techno-economic analysis, evaluation, and estimation of the various systems efficiency and/or performance.