• 제목/요약/키워드: econometric model

검색결과 157건 처리시간 0.025초

Econometric Estimation of the Climate Change Policy Effect in the U.S. Transportation Sector

  • Choi, Jaesung
    • Journal of Climate Change Research
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    • 제8권1호
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    • pp.1-10
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    • 2017
  • Over the past centuries, industrialization in developed and developing countries has had a negative impact on global warming, releasing $CO_2$ emissions into the Earth's atmosphere. In recent years, the transportation sector, which emits one-third of total $CO_2$ emissions in the United States, has adapted by implementing a climate change action plan to reduce $CO_2$ emissions. Having an environmental policy might be an essential factor in mitigating the man-made global warming threats to protect public health and the coexistent needs of current and future generations; however, to my best knowledge, no research has been conducted in such a context with appropriate statistical validation process to evaluate the effects of climate change policy on $CO_2$ emission reduction in recent years in the U.S. transportation. The empirical findings using an entity fixed-effects model with valid statistical tests show the positive effects of climate change policy on $CO_2$ emission reduction in a state. With all the 49 states joining the climate change action plans, the U.S. transportation sector is expected to reduce its $CO_2$ emissions by 20.2 MMT per year, and for the next 10 years, the cumulated $CO_2$ emission reduction is projected to reach 202.3 MMT, which is almost equivalent to the $CO_2$ emissions from the transportation sector produced in 2012 by California, the largest $CO_2$ emission state in the nation.

Impact of COVID-19 on the Stock Market Performance of Global IT Sector

  • CHAUDHARY, Rashmi;BAKHSHI, Priti
    • The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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    • 제9권3호
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    • pp.217-227
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    • 2022
  • Predicting return and volatility in the global Capital Market during a pandemic is challenging, and it is more difficult for a specific sector, particularly if that sector has a positive outlook. The goal of this research is to look at the impact of COVID-19 on the mean and volatility of the Information Technology Indexes of the best nine technology-driven countries based on return performance using an econometric GARCH model that is widely used. The daily returns of information technology indexes are evaluated for the same from November 2018 to February 2021. Data is taken from Yahoo Finance for CAC Tech (France), DAX Tech (Germany), FTSE All Tech (UK), KOPSI 200 IT (Korea), NIFTY IT (India), S&P 500 IT (US), S&P TSX (Canada), SSE_IT (China) and TOPIX17 (Japan). The results show daily positive mean returns for 8 countries' IT Indices and further, an uptrend in mean daily returns is observed in the crisis period for 6 countries' IT Indices. The exogenous variable COVID-19 which was taken as a regressor for the GARCH model was found to be positively significant for IT indices of all the countries. The overall results confirm the presence of the mean-reverting phenomenon for IT indices of all the countries.

Impact of Energy Consumption, FDI and Trade Openness on Carbon Emissions in lvory Coast

  • Ange Aurore KADI;Liang LI;David Dauda LANSANA;Joseph FUSEINI
    • Asian Journal of Business Environment
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    • 제14권3호
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    • pp.23-35
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    • 2024
  • Purpose: The study focuses on the impact of Foreign Direct Investment (FDI), trade openness, and energy consumption on carbon dioxide emissions in the Ivory Coast. It aims to quantitatively evaluate the effects of FDI, energy consumption, and trade openness on CO2 emissions in Ivory Coast. Research design, data, and methodology: The research uses an econometric framework and the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model to analyze time-series data from 1980 to 2021 between these factors. Results: The analysis revealed that FDI significantly impacts the carbon dioxide emissions, FDI showed a negative impact on carbon emissions in the long-run equilibrium term. Also, energy consumption impacted CO2 emissions in the long-run equilibrium term. Conclusion: To mitigate the upsurge of CO2 emissions in the Ivorian context, concrete policy, including enactment and adherence to strict environmental regulations, adoption and prioritization of eco-friendly products and technologies, and investment in renewable energy infrastructure are recommended. The study contributes to the global discussion on sustainable development by offering a model for similar assessments in other emerging nations facing simultaneous economic growth and environmental conservation challenges.

A study of developing the efficiency test model of benefit enterprises in enterprise support business by using DEA (기업지원사업 수혜기업의 효율성 평가모형 개발에 관한 연구 - DEA를 적용하여 -)

  • Lee, Jong-Young;Kim, Myoung-Ho
    • Korean Business Review
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    • 제23권2호
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    • pp.53-75
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    • 2010
  • Gangwon-do has evaluated the result of technical support business and marketing support business separately as a part of enterprise support business, and the evaluation, targeting enterprises, has been restricted to the investigation of satisfaction only. The study develops the model that assesses the efficiency of the enterprises using DEA, the econometric model which is approved the utility in efficiency evaluation, and evaluates it through the model. As a result, the model can be developed to the appropriate variable of the enterprise support business using the elements of input and output in the business. And by using the model of DEA, it is suggested the efficiency measurement of each enterprises' and improvement that inefficient enterprises must have. Especially, it is important to assess the efficiency of supporting enterprises primary.

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Econometric Study on Forecasting Demand Response in Smart Grid (스마트그리드 수요반응 추정을 위한 계량경제학적 방법에 관한 연구)

  • Kang, Dong Joo;Park, Sunju
    • KIPS Transactions on Computer and Communication Systems
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    • 제1권3호
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    • pp.133-142
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    • 2012
  • Cournot model is one of representative models among many game theoretic approaches available for analyzing competitive market models. Recent years have witnessed various kinds of attempts to model competitive electricity markets using the Cournot model. Cournot model is appropriate for oligopoly market which is one characteristic of electric power industry requiring huge amount of capital investment. When we use Cournot model for the application to electricity market, it is prerequisite to assume the downward sloping demand curve in the right direction. Generators in oligopoly market could try to maximize their profit by exercising the market power like physical or economic withholding. However advanced electricity markets also have demand side bidding which makes it possible for the demand to respond to the high market price by reducing their consumption. Considering this kind of demand reaction, Generators couldn't abuse their market power. Instead, they try to find out an equilibrium point which is optimal for both sides, generators and demand. This paper suggest a quantitative analysis between market variables based on econometrics for estimating demand responses in smart grid environment.

Determinants of Korea's Trade before and after the 2008 Financial Crisis Activating Augmented Gravity Model (중력모형을 이용한 2008년 금융위기 전후 한국의 교역결정요인 분석)

  • Lee, Doowon;Kim, Donghee;Park, Seokwon
    • International Area Studies Review
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    • 제16권1호
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    • pp.243-274
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    • 2012
  • This research analyzes the determinants of Korea's trade using the Gravity model, Chow test and panel data anaysis. According to the pooled panel OLS analysis using the gravity model and Chow-test, Korea's trade patterns before and after the 2008 financial crisis are heterogeneous. Variables of basic gravity model, GDP per capita, distance, and population, identically showed positive and significant correlation with trade volume before and after financial crisis, but also equally showed the decrease in absolute value of coefficient. On the other hands, Overseas Direct Investments(ODI) variable showed the increase in absolute value of coefficient. But TCI was no longer significant. This research is significant in that it is able to show the strategy for the long term growth in Korea's volume of international trade through econometric analysis based on data of 55 trading partner of Korea.

A Study on the Common RPN Model of Failure Mode Evaluation Analysis(FMEA) and its Application for Risk Factor Evaluation (위험 요인 평가를 위한 FMEA의 일반 RPN 모형과 활용에 관한 연구)

  • Cho, Seong Woo;Lee, Han Sol;Kang, Juyoung
    • Journal of Korean Society for Quality Management
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    • 제50권1호
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    • pp.125-138
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    • 2022
  • Purpose: Failure Mode and Effect Analysis (FMEA) is a widely utilized technique to measure product reliability by identifying potential failure modes. Even though FMEA techniques have been studied, the form of Risk Priority Number (RPN) used to evaluate risk priority in FMEA is still questionable because of its shortcomings. In this study, we suggest common RPN(cRPN) to resolve shortcomings of the traditional RPN and show the extensibility of cRPN. Methods: We suggest cRPN which is based on Cobb-Douglas production function, and represent the various application on weighting risk factors, weighted RPN in a mathematical way, and show the possibility of statistical approach. We also conduct numerical study to examine the difference of the traditional RPN and cRPN as well as the potential application from the analysis on marginal effects of each risk factor. Results: cRPN successfully integrates previously suggested approaches especially on the relative importance of risk factors and weighting RPN. Moreover, we analyze the effect of corrective actions in terms of econometric analysis using cRPN. Since cRPN is rely on the reliable mathematical model, there would be numerous applications using cRPN such as smart factory based on A.I. techniques. Conclusion: We propose a reliable mathematical model of RPN based on Cobb-Douglas production function. Our suggested model, cRPN, resolves various shortcomings such as consideration of the relative importance, the effect of combinations among risk factors. In addition, by adopting a reliable mathematical model, quantitative approaches are expected to be applied using cRPN. We find that cRPN can be utilized to the field of industry because it is able to be applied without modifying the entire systems or the conventional actions.

The Effects of Foreign Direct Investment and Economic Absorptive Capabilities on the Economic Growth of the Lao People's Democratic Republic

  • NANTHARATH, Phouthakannha;KANG, Eungoo
    • The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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    • 제6권3호
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    • pp.151-162
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    • 2019
  • The paper examines the effects of Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) on the economic growth of Lao People's Democratic Republic (Lao PDR) between 1993 and 2015. The investigation is based on the influence of growth and economic absorptive capability determinants such as human capital, trade openness, and institutional quality. The methodological analysis uses a multivariate framework accounting capital stock, labor stock, FDI, human capital, trade openness, and institutional quality in regression of the Vector Autoregressive model. Augmented Dickey-Fuller unit root test, Johansen Cointegration test, and Granger Causality test were applied as parts of the econometric time-series analysis approach. The empirical results demonstrate the positive effects of FDI and trade openness, and the negative effects of human capital and institutional quality on the economic growth of the Lao PDR over the 1993 to 2015 period. The findings confirm that trade openness complemented by a sufficient level of infrastructure, education, quality institutions, and transparency significantly influence economic growth and attract more FDI. Research results lend credence to the need for the Lao PDR's government to focus on improving its economic absorptive capability and economic competitiveness regionally and globally by improving wealth and resource management strategies, as failure to take this course of action could lead to the Dutch Disease effects.

Forecasting Methodology of 3G Mobile Services with Consideration of Policy Issues

  • Kim, Jin-Ki
    • Proceedings of the Korean Operations and Management Science Society Conference
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    • 한국경영과학회 2007년도 추계학술대회 및 정기총회
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    • pp.190-194
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    • 2007
  • In most countries, mobile subscribers are already experiencing 3G-like services. At the moment of launching 3G services, lots of studies showed estimates of the number of subscribers for 3G services, using long-term demand curves, econometric methods or survey methodologies. Those studies mainly focused on the potential number of subscribers and the point of rapid growth rather than precise estimates for the services. Even though we've already experienced parts of 3G services, full length of 3G services are expecting in near future. Therefore, now we need to have more accurate estimates for 3G services. While we thought that 3G services were moved from 2G, in real place 3G services are being evolved from 2G services. In the process of evolving, regulators' policy affects service demand and diffusion significantly. For the more accurate estimates, we need to consider policy issues which influence service diffusion practically in real place. This study aims to present a model which shows better estimates for 3G services with consideration on policy issues, such as numbering issues, price regulation, and competition policy. The consideration can provide more accurate estimates for 3G services with service providers. The methodology could help academicians In forecasting of similar telecommunications services as well.

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Impact of Working Capital Management on Firm's Profitability: Empirical Evidence from Vietnam

  • NGUYEN, Anh Huu;PHAM, Huong Thanh;NGUYEN, Hang Thu
    • The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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    • 제7권3호
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    • pp.115-125
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    • 2020
  • This paper investigates the impact of working capital management on the firm's profitability. The research sample includes 119 non-financial listed companies on Vietnam stock market over a period of 9 years from 2010 to 2018. Two statistical approaches include Ordinary least squares (OLS) and fixed effects model (FEM) are employed to address econometric issues and to improve the accuracy of the regression coefficients. The empirical results show the negative and significant impacts of the working capital management, which measured by cash conversion cycle (CCC) and three components of the CCC including accounts receivable turnover in days (ARD), inventory turnover in days (INVD), and accounts payable turnover in days (APD) on the firm's profitability measured by return on assets (ROA) and Tobin's Q. It implies that firms can increase profitability by keeping the optimization of the working capital management measured by the CCC, which includes shortening the time to collect money from clients, accelerating inventory flow and hold the low payment time to creditors. Besides, the profitability of firms was impacted by the sale growth rate, firm size, leverage, and age. Therefore, this paper provides a new insight to managers on how to improve the firm's profitability with working capital management.