• 제목/요약/키워드: earthquake prediction

검색결과 289건 처리시간 0.035초

2016년 경주지진 유발단층 시나리오 지진에 의한 국내 광역 도시 지진관측소에서의 강진동 모사 (Strong Ground Motion Simulation at Seismic Stations of Metropolises in South Korea by Scenario Earthquake on the Causative Fault of the 2016 Gyeongju Earthquake)

  • 최호선
    • 한국지진공학회논문집
    • /
    • 제24권2호
    • /
    • pp.59-65
    • /
    • 2020
  • The empirical Green's function method is applied to the foreshock and the mainshock of the 2016 Gyeongju earthquake to simulate strong ground motions of the mainshock and scenario earthquake at seismic stations of seven metropolises in South Korea, respectively. To identify the applicability of the method in advance, the mainshock is simulated, assuming the foreshock as the empirical Green's function. As a result of the simulation, the overall shape, the amplitude of PGA, and the duration and response spectra of the simulated seismic waveforms are similar with those of the observed seismic waveforms. Based on this result, a scenario earthquake on the causative fault of Gyeongju earthquake with a moment magnitude 6.5 is simulated, assuming that the mainshock serves as the empirical Green's function. As a result, the amplitude of PGA and the duration of simulated seismic waveforms are significantly increased and extended, and the spectral amplitude of the low frequency band is relatively increased compared with that of the high frequency band. If the empirical Green's function method is applied to several recent well-recorded moderate earthquakes, the simulated seismic waveforms can be used as not only input data for developing ground motion prediction equations, but also input data for creating the design response spectra of major facilities in South Korea.

점지진원 모델을 이용한 경주 지진으로 인한 지반운동 생성 (Simulation of Ground Motions from Gyeongju Earthquake using Point Source Model)

  • 하성진;지현우;한상환
    • 한국지진공학회논문집
    • /
    • 제20권7_spc호
    • /
    • pp.537-543
    • /
    • 2016
  • In low to moderate seismic regions, there are limited earthquake ground motion data recorded from past earthquakes. In this regard, the Gyeongju earthquake (M=5.8)occurred on September 12, 2016 produces valuable information on ground motions. Ground motions were recorded at various recording stations located widely in Korean peninsula. Without actual recoded ground motions, it is impossible to make a ground motion prediction model. In this study, a point source model is constructed to accurately simulate ground motions recorded at different stations located on different soil conditions during the Gyeongju earthquake. Using the model, ground motions are generated at all grid locations of Korean peninsula. Each grid size has $0.1^{\circ}(latitude){\times}0.1^{\circ}(longitude)$. Then a contour hazard map is constructed using the peak ground acceleration of the simulated ground motions.

2016년 경주지진 원인단층의 시나리오 지진에 의한 국내 광역도시 지진관측소에서의 추계학적 강진동 모사 (Stochastic Strong Ground Motion Simulation at South Korean Metropolises' Seismic Stations Based on the 2016 Gyeongju Earthquake Causative Fault)

  • 최호선
    • 한국지진공학회논문집
    • /
    • 제25권6호
    • /
    • pp.233-240
    • /
    • 2021
  • The stochastic method is applied to simulate strong ground motions at seismic stations of seven metropolises in South Korea, creating an earthquake scenario based on the causative fault of the 2016 Gyeongju earthquake. Input parameters are established according to what has been revealed so far for the causative fault of the Gyeongju earthquake, while the ratio of differences in response spectra between observed and simulated strong ground motions is assumed to be an adjustment factor. The calculations confirm the applicability and reproducibility of strong ground motion simulations based on the relatively small bias in response spectra between observed and simulated strong ground motions. Based on this result, strong ground motions by a scenario earthquake on the causative fault of the Gyeongju earthquake with moment magnitude 6.5 are simulated, assuming that the ratios of its fault length to width are 2:1, 3:1, and 4:1. The results are similar to those of the empirical Green's function method. Although actual site response factors of seismic stations should be supplemented later, the simulated strong ground motions can be used as input data for developing ground motion prediction equations and input data for calculating the design response spectra of major facilities in South Korea.

Proposal of new ground-motion prediction equations for elastic input energy spectra

  • Cheng, Yin;Lucchini, Andrea;Mollaioli, Fabrizio
    • Earthquakes and Structures
    • /
    • 제7권4호
    • /
    • pp.485-510
    • /
    • 2014
  • In performance-based seismic design procedures Peak Ground Acceleration (PGA) and pseudo-Spectral acceleration ($S_a$) are commonly used to predict the response of structures to earthquake. Recently, research has been carried out to evaluate the predictive capability of these standard Intensity Measures (IMs) with respect to different types of structures and Engineering Demand Parameter (EDP) commonly used to measure damage. Efforts have been also spent to propose alternative IMs that are able to improve the results of the response predictions. However, most of these IMs are not usually employed in probabilistic seismic demand analyses because of the lack of reliable Ground Motion Prediction Equations (GMPEs). In order to define seismic hazard and thus to calculate demand hazard curves it is essential, in fact, to establish a GMPE for the earthquake intensity. In the light of this need, new GMPEs are proposed here for the elastic input energy spectra, energy-based intensity measures that have been shown to be good predictors of both structural and non-structural damage for many types of structures. The proposed GMPEs are developed using mixed-effects models by empirical regressions on a large number of strong-motions selected from the NGA database. Parametric analyses are carried out to show the effect of some properties variation, such as fault mechanism, type of soil, earthquake magnitude and distance, on the considered IMs. Results of comparisons between the proposed GMPEs and other from the literature are finally shown.

Nonlinear dynamic properties of dynamic shear modulus ratio and damping ratio of clay in the starting area of Xiong'an New Area

  • Song Dongsong;Liu Hongshuai
    • Earthquakes and Structures
    • /
    • 제26권2호
    • /
    • pp.97-115
    • /
    • 2024
  • In this paper, a database consisting of the dynamic shear modulus ratio and damping ratio test data of clay obtained from 406 groups of triaxial tests is constructed with the starting area of Xiong'an New Area as the research background. The aim is to study the nonlinear dynamic properties of clay in this area under cyclic loading. The study found that the effective confining pressure and plasticity index have certain influences on the dynamic shear modulus ratio and damping ratio of clay in this area. Through data analysis, it was found that there was a certain correlation between effective confining pressure and plasticity index and dynamic shear modulus ratio and damping ratio, with fitting degree values greater than 0.1263 for both. However, other physical indices such as the void ratio, natural density, water content and specific gravity have only a small effect on the dynamic shear modulus ratio and the damping ratio, with fitting degree values of less than 0.1 for all of them. This indicates that it is important to consider the influence of effective confining pressure and plasticity index when studying the nonlinear dynamic properties of clays in this area. Based on the above, prediction models for the dynamic shear modulus ratio and damping ratio in this area were constructed separately. The results showed that the model that considered the combined effect of effective confining pressure and plasticity index performed best. The predicted dynamic shear modulus ratio and damping ratio closely matched the actual curves, with approximately 88% of the data falling within ±1.3 times the measured dynamic shear modulus ratio and approximately 85.1% of the data falling within ±1.3 times the measured damping ratio. In contrast, the prediction models that considered only a single influence deviated from the actual values, particularly the model that considered only the plasticity index, which predicted the dynamic shear modulus ratio and the damping ratio within a small distribution range close to the average of the test values. When compared with existing prediction models, it was found that the predicted dynamic shear modulus ratio in this paper was slightly higher, which was due to the overall hardness of the clay in this area, leading to a slightly higher determination of the dynamic shear modulus ratio by the prediction model. Finally, for the dynamic shear modulus ratio and damping ratio of the engineering site in the starting area of Xiong'an New Area, we confirm that the prediction formulas established in this paper have high reliability and provide the applicable range of the prediction model.

Deep neural network for prediction of time-history seismic response of bridges

  • An, Hyojoon;Lee, Jong-Han
    • Structural Engineering and Mechanics
    • /
    • 제83권3호
    • /
    • pp.401-413
    • /
    • 2022
  • The collapse of civil infrastructure due to natural disasters results in financial losses and many casualties. In particular, the recent increase in earthquake activities has highlighted on the importance of assessing the seismic performance and predicting the seismic risk of a structure. However, the nonlinear behavior of a structure and the uncertainty in ground motion complicate the accurate seismic response prediction of a structure. Artificial intelligence can overcome these limitations to reasonably predict the nonlinear behavior of structures. In this study, a deep learning-based algorithm was developed to estimate the time-history seismic response of bridge structures. The proposed deep neural network was trained using structural and ground motion parameters. The performance of the seismic response prediction algorithm showed the similar phase and magnitude to those of the time-history analysis in a single-degree-of-freedom system that exhibits nonlinear behavior as a main structural element. Then, the proposed algorithm was expanded to predict the seismic response and fragility prediction of a bridge system. The proposed deep neural network reasonably predicted the nonlinear seismic behavior of piers and bearings for approximately 93% and 87% of the test dataset, respectively. The results of the study also demonstrated that the proposed algorithm can be utilized to assess the seismic fragility of bridge components and system.

Development of an integrated approach for Algerian building seismic damage assessment

  • Boukri, Mehdi;Farsi, Mohammed Naboussi;Mebarki, Ahmed;Belazougui, Mohamed
    • Structural Engineering and Mechanics
    • /
    • 제47권4호
    • /
    • pp.471-493
    • /
    • 2013
  • This paper presents a framework for seismic damage evaluation for Algerian buildings adapted from HAZUS approach (Hazard-United States). Capacity and fragility curves were adapted to fit the Algerian building typologies (Reinforced Concrete structures, Confined or Non-Confined Masonry, etc). For prediction purposes, it aims to estimate the damages and potential losses that may be generated by a given earthquake in a prone area or country. Its efficiency is validated by comparing the estimated and observed damages in Boumerd$\grave{e}$s city, in the aftermath of Boumerd$\grave{e}$s earthquake (Algeria: May $21^{st}$ 2003; $M_w$ = 6.8). For this purpose, observed damages reported for almost 3,700 buildings are compared to the theoretical predictions obtained under two distinct modelling of the seismic hazard. In one hand, the site response spectrum is built according to real accelerometric records obtained during the main shock. In the other hand, the effective Algerian seismic code response spectrum (RPA 99) in use by the time of the earthquake is considered; it required the prior fitting of Boumerd$\grave{e}$s site PGA (Peak Ground Acceleration) provided by Ambraseys' attenuation relationship.

공간 GIS 기법을 활용한 대전 지역 부지 주기의 지진 구역화 (Seismic Zonation of Site Period at Daejeon within Spatial GIS tool)

  • 선창국;신진수
    • 한국지반공학회:학술대회논문집
    • /
    • 한국지반공학회 2008년도 춘계 학술발표회 초청강연 및 논문집
    • /
    • pp.563-574
    • /
    • 2008
  • Most of earthquake-induced geotechnical hazards have been caused by the site effects relating to the amplification of ground motion, which are strongly influenced by the local geologic conditions such as soil thickness or bedrock depth and soil stiffness. In this study, an integrated GIS-based information system for geotechnical data, called geotechnical information system (GTIS), was constructed to establish a regional counterplan against earthquake-induced hazards at an urban area, Daejeon, which is represented as a hub of research and development in Korea. To build the GTIS for the area of interesting, pre-existing geotechnical data collections were performed across the extended area including the study area and a walk-over site survey was additionally carried out to acquire surface geo-knowledge data. For practical application of the GTIS used to estimate the site effects at the area of interesting, seismic microzoning map of the characteristic site period was created and presented as regional synthetic strategy for earthquake-induced hazards prediction. In addition, seismic zonation for site classification according to the spatial distribution of the site period was also performed to determine the site amplification coefficients for seismic design and seismic performance evaluation at any site in the study area. Based on the case study on seismic zonations at Daejeon, it was verified that the GIS-based GTIS was very useful for the regional prediction of seismic hazards and also the decision support for seismic hazard mitigation.

  • PDF