• Title/Summary/Keyword: earthquake prediction

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Effects of consecutive earthquakes on increased damage and response of reinforced concrete structures

  • Amiri, Gholamreza Ghodrati;Rajabi, Elham
    • Computers and Concrete
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    • v.21 no.1
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    • pp.55-66
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    • 2018
  • A large main shock may consist of numerous aftershocks with a short period. The aftershocks induced by a large main shock can cause the collapse of a structure that has been already damaged by the preceding main shock. These aftershocks are important factors in structural damages. Furthermore, despite what is often assumed in seismic design codes, earthquakes do not usually occur as a single event, but as a series of strong aftershocks and even fore shocks. For this reason, this study investigates the effect and potential of consecutive earthquakes on the response and behavior of concrete structures. At first, six moment resisting concrete frames with 3, 5, 7, 10, 12 and 15 stories are designed and analyzed under two different records with seismic sequences from real and artificial cases. The damage states of the model frames were then measured by the Park and Ang's damage index. From the results of this investigation, it is observed that the sequences of ground motions can almost double the accumulated damage and increased response of structures. Therefore, it is certainly insufficient to ignore this effect in the design procedure of structures. Also, the use of artificial seismic sequences as design earthquake can lead to non-conservative prediction of behavior and damage of structures under real seismic sequences.

Use of the t-Distribution to Construct Seismic Hazard Curves for Seismic Probabilistic Safety Assessments

  • Yee, Eric
    • Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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    • v.49 no.2
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    • pp.373-379
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    • 2017
  • Seismic probabilistic safety assessments are used to help understand the impact potential seismic events can have on the operation of a nuclear power plant. An important component to seismic probabilistic safety assessment is the seismic hazard curve which shows the frequency of seismic events. However, these hazard curves are estimated assuming a normal distribution of the seismic events. This may not be a strong assumption given the number of recorded events at each source-to-site distance. The use of a normal distribution makes the calculations significantly easier but may underestimate or overestimate the more rare events, which is of concern to nuclear power plants. This paper shows a preliminary exploration into the effect of using a distribution that perhaps more represents the distribution of events, such as the t-distribution to describe data. The integration of a probability distribution with potentially larger tails basically pushes the hazard curves outward, suggesting a different range of frequencies for use in seismic probabilistic safety assessments. Therefore the use of a more realistic distribution results in an increase in the frequency calculations suggesting rare events are less rare than thought in terms of seismic probabilistic safety assessment. However, the opposite was observed with the ground motion prediction equation considered.

Static finite element analysis of architectural glass curtain walls under in-plane loads and corresponding full-scale test

  • Memari, A.M.;Shirazi, A.;Kremer, P.A.
    • Structural Engineering and Mechanics
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    • v.25 no.4
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    • pp.365-382
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    • 2007
  • A pilot study has been conducted to guide the development of a finite element modeling formulation for the analysis of architectural glass curtain walls under in-plane lateral load simulating earthquake effects. This pilot study is one aspect of ongoing efforts to develop a general prediction model for glass cracking and glass fallout for architectural glass storefront and curtain wall systems during seismic loading. For this study, the ANSYS finite element analysis program was used to develop a model and obtain the stress distribution within an architectural glass panel after presumed seismic movements cause glass-to-frame contact. The analysis was limited to static loading of a dry-glazed glass curtain wall panel. A mock-up of the glass curtain wall considered in the analysis with strain gages mounted at select locations on the glass and the aluminum framing was subjected to static loading. A comparison is made between the finite element analysis predicted strain and the experimentally measured strain at each strain gage location.

Real-time structural damage detection using wireless sensing and monitoring system

  • Lu, Kung-Chun;Loh, Chin-Hsiung;Yang, Yuan-Sen;Lynch, Jerome P.;Law, K.H.
    • Smart Structures and Systems
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    • v.4 no.6
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    • pp.759-777
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    • 2008
  • A wireless sensing system is designed for application to structural monitoring and damage detection applications. Embedded in the wireless monitoring module is a two-tier prediction model, the auto-regressive (AR) and the autoregressive model with exogenous inputs (ARX), used to obtain damage sensitive features of a structure. To validate the performance of the proposed wireless monitoring and damage detection system, two near full scale single-story RC-frames, with and without brick wall system, are instrumented with the wireless monitoring system for real time damage detection during shaking table tests. White noise and seismic ground motion records are applied to the base of the structure using a shaking table. Pattern classification methods are then adopted to classify the structure as damaged or undamaged using time series coefficients as entities of a damage-sensitive feature vector. The demonstration of the damage detection methodology is shown to be capable of identifying damage using a wireless structural monitoring system. The accuracy and sensitivity of the MEMS-based wireless sensors employed are also verified through comparison to data recorded using a traditional wired monitoring system.

Influence of ground motion selection methods on seismic directionality effects

  • Cantagallo, Cristina;Camata, Guido;Spacone, Enrico
    • Earthquakes and Structures
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    • v.8 no.1
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    • pp.185-204
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    • 2015
  • This study investigates the impact of the earthquake incident angle on the structural demand and the influence of ground motion selection and scaling methods on seismic directionality effects. The structural demand produced by Non-Linear Time-History Analyses (NLTHA) varies with the seismic input incidence angle. The seismic directionality effects are evaluated by subjecting four three-dimensional reinforced concrete structures to different scaled and un-scaled records oriented along nine incidence angles, whose values range between 0 and 180 degrees, with an increment of 22.5 degrees. The results show that NLTHAs performed applying the ground motion records along the principal axes underestimate the structural demand prediction, especially when plan-irregular structures are analyzed. The ground motion records generate the highest demand when applied along the lowest strength structural direction and a high energy content of the records increases the structural demand corresponding to this direction. The seismic directionality impact on structural demand is particularly important for irregular buildings subjected to un-scaled accelerograms. However, the orientation effects are much lower if spectrum-compatible combinations of scaled records are used. In both cases, irregular structures should be analyzed first with pushover analyses in order to identify the weaker structural directions and then with NLTHAs for different incidence angles.

Summarized IDA curves by the wavelet transform and bees optimization algorithm

  • Shahryari, Homayoon;Karami, M. Reza;Chiniforush, Alireza A.
    • Earthquakes and Structures
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    • v.16 no.2
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    • pp.165-175
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    • 2019
  • Incremental dynamic analysis (IDA), as an accurate method to evaluate the parameters of structural performance levels, requires many non-linear time history analyses, using a set of ground motion records which are scaled to different intensity levels. Therefore, this method is very computationally demanding. In this study, a new method is presented to estimate the summarized (16%, 50%, and 84% fractiles) IDA curves of a first-mode dominated structure using discrete wavelet transform and bees optimization algorithm. This method reduces the number of required ground motion records for the prediction of the summarized IDA curves. At first, a subset of first list ground motion records is decomposed by means of discrete wavelet transform which have a low dispersion estimating the summarized IDA curves of equivalent SDOF system of the main structure. Then, the bees algorithm optimizes a series of factors for each level of detail coefficients in discrete wavelet transform. The applied factors change the frequency content of original ground motion records which the generated ground motions records can be utilized to reliably estimate the summarized IDA curves of the main structure. At the end, to evaluate the efficiency of the proposed method, the seismic behavior of a typical 3-story special steel moment frame, subjected to a set of twenty ground motion records is compared with this method.

Fundamental vibration frequency prediction of historical masonry bridges

  • Onat, Onur
    • Structural Engineering and Mechanics
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    • v.69 no.2
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    • pp.155-162
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    • 2019
  • It is very common to find an empirical formulation in an earthquake design code to calculate fundamental vibration period of a structural system. Fundamental vibration period or frequency is a key parameter to provide adequate information pertinent to dynamic characteristics and performance assessment of a structure. This parameter enables to assess seismic demand of a structure. It is possible to find an empirical formulation related to reinforced concrete structures, masonry towers and slender masonry structures. Calculated natural vibration frequencies suggested by empirical formulation in the literatures has not suits in a high accuracy to the case of rest of the historical masonry bridges due to different construction techniques and wide variety of material properties. For the listed reasons, estimation of fundamental frequency gets harder. This paper aims to present an empirical formulation through Mean Square Error study to find ambient vibration frequency of historical masonry bridges by using a non-linear regression model. For this purpose, a series of data collected from literature especially focused on the finite element models of historical masonry bridges modelled in a full scale to get first global natural frequency, unit weight and elasticity modulus of used dominant material based on homogenization approach, length, height and width of the masonry bridge and main span length were considered to predict natural vibration frequency. An empirical formulation is proposed with 81% accuracy. Also, this study draw attention that this accuracy decreases to 35%, if the modulus of elasticity and unit weight are ignored.

Optimized AI controller for reinforced concrete frame structures under earthquake excitation

  • Chen, Tim;Crosbie, Robert C.;Anandkumarb, Azita;Melville, Charles;Chan, Jcy
    • Advances in concrete construction
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    • v.11 no.1
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    • pp.1-9
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    • 2021
  • This article discusses the issue of optimizing controller design issues, in which the artificial intelligence (AI) evolutionary bat (EB) optimization algorithm is combined with the fuzzy controller in the practical application of the building. The controller of the system design includes different sub-parts such as system initial condition parameters, EB optimal algorithm, fuzzy controller, stability analysis and sensor actuator. The advantage of the design is that for continuous systems with polytypic uncertainties, the integrated H2/H∞ robust output strategy with modified criterion is derived by asymptotically adjusting design parameters. Numerical verification of the time domain and the frequency domain shows that the novel system design provides precise prediction and control of the structural displacement response, which is necessary for the active control structure in the fuzzy model. Due to genetic algorithm (GA), we use a hierarchical conditions of the Hurwitz matrix test technique and the limits of average performance, Hierarchical Fitness Function Structure (HFFS). The dynamic fuzzy controller proposed in this paper is used to find the optimal control force required for active nonlinear control of building structures. This method has achieved successful results in closed system design from the example.

A study on Natural Disaster Prediction Using Multi-Class Decision Forest

  • Eom, Tae-Hyuk;Kim, Kyung-A
    • Korean Journal of Artificial Intelligence
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    • v.10 no.1
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    • pp.1-7
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    • 2022
  • In this paper, a study was conducted to predict natural disasters in Afghanistan based on machine learning. Natural disasters need to be prepared not only in Korea but also in other vulnerable countries. Every year in Afghanistan, natural disasters(snow, earthquake, drought, flood) cause property and casualties. We decided to conduct research on this phenomenon because we thought that the damage would be small if we were to prepare for it. The Azure Machine Learning Studio used in the study has the advantage of being more visible and easier to use than other Machine Learning tools. Decision Forest is a model for classifying into decision tree types. Decision forest enables intuitive analysis as a model that is easy to analyze results and presents key variables and separation criteria. Also, since it is a nonparametric model, it is free to assume (normality, independence, equal dispersion) required by the statistical model. Finally, linear/non-linear relationships can be searched considering interactions between variables. Therefore, the study used decision forest. The study found that overall accuracy was 89 percent and average accuracy was 97 percent. Although the results of the experiment showed a little high accuracy, items with low natural disaster frequency were less accurate due to lack of learning. By learning and complementing more data, overall accuracy can be improved, and damage can be reduced by predicting natural disasters.

Probability-based prediction of residual displacement for SDOF using nonlinear static analysis

  • Feng, Zhibin;Gong, Jinxin
    • Earthquakes and Structures
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    • v.22 no.6
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    • pp.571-584
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    • 2022
  • The residual displacement ratio (RDRs) response spectra have been generally used as an important means to evaluate the post-earthquake repairability, and the ratios of residual to maximum inelastic displacement are considered to be more appropriate for development of the spectra. This methodology, however, assumes that the expected residual displacement can be computed as the product of the RDRs and maximum inelastic displacement, without considering the correlation between these two variables, which inevitably introduces potential systematic error. For providing an adequately accurate estimate of residual displacement, while accounting for the collapse resistance performance prior to the repairability evaluation, a probability-based procedure to estimate the residual displacement demands using the nonlinear static analysis (NSA) is developed for single-degree-of-freedom (SDOF) systems. To this end, the energy-based equivalent damping ratio used for NSA is revised to obtain the maximum displacement coincident with the nonlinear time history analysis (NTHA) results in the mean sense. Then, the possible systematic error resulted from RDRs spectra methodology is examined based on the NTHA results of SDOF systems. Finally, the statistical relation between the residual displacement and the NSA-based maximum displacement is established. The results indicate that the energy-based equivalent damping ratio will underestimate the damping for short period ranges, and overestimate the damping for longer period ranges. The RDRs spectra methodology generally leads to the results being non-conservative, depending on post-yield stiffness. The proposed approach emphasizes that the repairability evaluation should be based on the premise of no collapse, which matches with the current performance-based seismic assessment procedure.