• 제목/요약/키워드: earthquake prediction

검색결과 292건 처리시간 0.025초

Development of seismic fragility curves for high-speed railway system using earthquake case histories

  • Yang, Seunghoon;Kwak, Dongyoup;Kishida, Tadahiro
    • Geomechanics and Engineering
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    • 제21권2호
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    • pp.179-186
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    • 2020
  • Investigating damage potential of the railway infrastructure requires either large amount of case histories or in-depth numerical analyses, or both for which large amounts of effort and time are necessary to accomplish thoroughly. Rather than performing comprehensive studies for each damage case, in this study we collect and analyze a case history of the high-speed railway system damaged by the 2004 M6.6 Niigata Chuetsu earthquake for the development of the seismic fragility curve. The development processes are: 1) slice the railway system as 200 m segments and assigned damage levels and intensity measures (IMs) to each segment; 2) calculate probability of damage for a given IM; 3) estimate fragility curves using the maximum likelihood estimation regression method. Among IMs considered for fragility curves, spectral acceleration at 3 second period has the most prediction power for the probability of damage occurrence. Also, viaduct-type structure provides less scattered probability data points resulting in the best-fitted fragility curve, but for the tunnel-type structure data are poorly scattered for which fragility curve fitted is not meaningful. For validation purpose fragility curves developed are applied to the 2016 M7.0 Kumamoto earthquake case history by which another high-speed railway system was damaged. The number of actual damaged segments by the 2016 event is 25, and the number of equivalent damaged segments predicted using fragility curve is 22.21. Both numbers are very similar indicating that the developed fragility curve fits well to the Kumamoto region. Comparing with railway fragility curves from HAZUS, we found that HAZUS fragility curves are more conservative.

국내 및 미국 시방서에 따라 시공된 지중매설관의 동적거동 (Dynamic Behavior of Buried Pipelines Constructed by Domestic and USA Specifications)

  • 전상수;김재민
    • 한국방재학회 논문집
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    • 제11권1호
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    • pp.59-66
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    • 2011
  • 지진재해로 인한 라이프라인의 피해는 구조물의 손상뿐만 아니라, 통신장애, 전력 가스 수자원 등 다양한 생활에너지의 공급에 장애를 발생시킨다. 이러한 지진재해에 효율적으로 대응하기 위해 미국과 일본에서는 HAZUS 및 HERAS와 같은 지진재해평가 시스템을 구축하여 활용하고 있다. 국내에서도 이러한 시스템 구축을 위해 노력하고 있으나, 근본적으로 구조물의 지진 해석을 통한 평가자료가 부족한 실정이다. 이에 본 연구에서는 다양한 구조물 중 국내에 시공된 수많은 매설관을 조사하여 관 재질 특성에 따라 연성관과 취성관으로 분류하고 이에 대한 동적 거동을 분석하였다. 다양한 지진하중 하에서 국내 및 미국의 시공기준에 따라 매설관의 동적 거동을 비교 평가하였다. 본 연구를 통하여 미국 HAZUS 프로그램의 알고리즘에 따른 국내의 매설관 손상평가의 적정성을 조사하였다.

추계학적 보사법을 이용한 한반도 남부에서의 강지진동 연구 (Stochastic Prediction of Strong Ground Motions in Southern Korea)

  • 조남대;박창업
    • 한국지진공학회논문집
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    • 제5권4호
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    • pp.17-26
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    • 2001
  • 한반도 남부에서 발생 가능한 강지진동의 최대 지반운동과 주파수에 따른 특성을 추계학적 모사법을 이용하여 간접적으로 추정하였다. 또한 추계학적 모사법에 적용할 진원과 지진파 감쇠에 관한 입력자료를 계산하였다. 응력강하($\Delta$$\sigma$)는 한반도 남부와 미국 동부 및 중국의 연구결과를 종합하여 100-bar로 추정하였다. 감쇠상수는 x는 1996년 9월부터 1997년 12월까지 발생한 지진 중 비교적 기록상태가 양호한 57개의 관측자료를 이용하여 계산하였으며 진원거리(R)에 대하여 0.00112+0.000224 R로 추정되었다. 이와 같은 응력강하($\Delta$$\sigma$)와 감쇠상수 x등의 입력자료를 추계학적 모사법에 적용한 결과를 바탕으로 진원거리에 따른 강진동 감쇠공식을 유도하였다.한 결과를 바탕으로 진원거리에 따른 강진동 감쇠공식을 유도하였다.

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Analysis of Tsunami Resonance and Impact in Coastal Waters

  • Lee, Joong-Woo;Kim, Kyu-Kwang;Yamazaki, Yoshiki;Cheung, Kwok Fai;Yamanaka, Ryoichi
    • 한국항해항만학회지
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    • 제35권9호
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    • pp.755-763
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    • 2011
  • Recently, extreme tsunami waves generated by submarine earthquake have caused tremendous damages to the coastal cities and ports. Strong seiche oscillations and runups are observed in specific sea areas around the world. Although no frequent impacts to the coast of Korean peninsula, there exist some important events in the east of Korea in the past. This study focuses on two historical events and recalculate with different fault and rupture mechanism for prediction considering the recent trend of submarine earthquake. The present study of the 1983 Akita tsunamis demonstrates the multi-scale resonance along continental coasts. Together with the Nankai tsunami for inland sea, we have confirmed the inland sea resonance surrounded by islands in defining the impact along the coast. Coherence and wavelet analyses for deducing a predominant period and time frequency are useful in reasoning the inundation. The resonance modes, which are largely independent of the tsunami source, allow identification of at-risk communities and infrastructure for mitigation of tsunami hazards. Furthermore, understanding of the resonance and the predicted runups for the site of power plant and industrial complex in the east coast of Korea would allow better preparation for the future disasters.

일본 서부 단층 지진원을 고려한 확률론적 지진해일 재해도 분석의 파고 변수 도출 (Estimation of Wave Parameters for Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Analysis Considering the Fault Sources in the Western Part of Japan)

  • 이현미;김민규;신동훈;최인길
    • 한국지진공학회논문집
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    • 제18권3호
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    • pp.151-160
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    • 2014
  • Probabilistic tsunami hazard analysis (PTHA) is based on the approach of probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) which is performed using various seismotectonic models and ground-motion prediction equations. The major difference between PTHA and PSHA is that PTHA requires the wave parameters of tsunami. The wave parameters can be estimated from tsunami propagation analysis. Therefore, a tsunami simulation analysis was conducted for the purpose of evaluating the wave parameters required for the PTHA of Uljin nuclear power plant (NPP) site. The tsunamigenic fault sources in the western part of Japan were chosen for the analysis. The wave heights for 80 rupture scenarios were numerically simulated. The synthetic tsunami waveforms were obtained around the Uljin NPP site. The results show that the wave heights are closely related with the location of the fault sources and the associated potential earthquake magnitudes. These wave parameters can be used as input data for the future PTHA study of the Uljin NPP site.

Shake table test of Y-shaped eccentrically braced frames fabricated with high-strength steel

  • Lian, Ming;Su, Mingzhou
    • Earthquakes and Structures
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    • 제12권5호
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    • pp.501-513
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    • 2017
  • To investigate the seismic performance of Y-shaped eccentrically braced frames fabricated with high-strength steel (Y-HSS-EBFs), a shake table test of a 1:2 scaled three-story Y-HSS-EBF specimen was performed. The input wave for the shake table test was generated by the ground motions of El Centro, Taft, and Lanzhou waves. The dynamic properties, acceleration, displacement, and strain responses were obtained from the test specimen and compared with previous test results. In addition, a finite element model of the test specimen was established using the SAP2000 software. Results from the numerical analysis were compared with the test specimen results. During the shake table test, the specimen exhibited sufficient overall structural stiffness and safety but suffered some localized damage. The lateral stiffness of the structure degenerated during the high seismic intensity earthquake. The maximum elastic and elastoplastic interstory drift of the test specimen for different peak ground accelerations were 1/872 and 1/71, respectively. During the high seismic intensity earthquake, the links of the test specimen entered the plastic stage to dissipate the earthquake energy, while other structural members remained in the elastic stage. The Y-HSS-EBF is a safe, dual system with reliable seismic performance. The numerical analysis results were in useful agreement with the test results. This finding indicated that the finite element model in SAP2000 provided a very accurate prediction of the Y-HSS-EBF structure's behavior during the seismic loadings.

철근콘크리트 교각의 지진손상 평가 II : 수치해석 예 (Evaluation of Seismic Damage for RC Bridge Piers II : Numerical Analysis)

  • 김태훈;김운학;신현목
    • 한국지진공학회논문집
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    • 제6권3호
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    • pp.41-52
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    • 2002
  • 연계논문에서는 철근콘크리트 교각의 지진손상 평가를 위한 비선형 유한요소해석 기법을 제시하였다. 이 논문에서는 철근콘크리트 교각의 이력거동의 예측에 근거한 손상지수를 제시하였다. 손상지수는 지진하중하의 철근콘크리트 교각의 손상을 수치적으로 정량화하는 방법으로서 제안되었다. 제안한 해석기법을 실험된 철근콘크리트 교각에 적용하였고 다른 연구자의 손상지수와 비교.분석하였다. 제안된 해석기법은 조사된 실험체에 대하여 하중단계에 따라 손상을 정확하게 예측하였다.

적층 천연고무 면진장치의 장기성능과 크리프에 대한 예측 (Prediction of Long Term Performance and Creep of Laminated Natural Rubber Bearings(NRB))

  • 황기태;서대원;조성국
    • 한국지진공학회논문집
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    • 제17권3호
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    • pp.117-125
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    • 2013
  • Seismic isolation has been considered and utilized in various industries as a way to prevent huge damage on to structures by large earthquakes in various industries. The laminated Laminated rubber bearings is are most frequently used in seismic isolation systems. The structural Structural safety could not be assured unless the performance of the rubber bearing is not guaranteed for the life time of the structure under the consideration that the bearing is a critical structural member to sustain vertical loads in the seismically isolated structure. However, there are few studies on the deterioration problems of rubber bearings during their service life. The long term performance of the rubber bearings was not considered in past designs of seismically isolated structures. This study evaluates the long term performance and creep characteristics of laminated natural rubber bearings that are used in seismically isolated buildings. For the this study, a set of accelerated thermal aging tests and creep tests are were performed on real specimens. The experimental results show that the natural rubber bearings would have a stable change rate of change for durability under severe environmental conditions for a long time.

The high accurate monitoring technique of land deformation by using satellite image - PSInSAR -

  • Mizuno Toshimi;Kuzuoka Shigeki
    • 한국지구물리탐사학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 한국지구물리탐사학회 2003년도 Proceedings of the international symposium on the fusion technology
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    • pp.305-312
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    • 2003
  • Remote sensing can provide invisible information in addition to acquire wide-view image data from space. Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) transmits microwave to the earth from a satellite and collects the reflected echo from the surface. Interferometric processing of SAR data can detect the subtle land deformation. The information of the surface movement by SAR is useful to monitor the volcanic activity, extended subsidence of urbanized area and the prediction of the earthquake caused by crustal deformation, and it complements the conventional levelling and GPS technique. PSInSAR (Permanent Scatterers Interferometric SAR) is one of interferometric techniques to be applied to practical projects in Japan. In this paper, the projects of land deformation monitoring are shown after the explanations of the PSInSAR principle. Tokai earthquake risk assessment is the first example. PSInSAR detects the subduction of crustal deformation of the adjacent area of new assumed epicenter region of the Tokai Earthquake. The extended subsidence of the urbanized area was implemented by using Japanese satellite data i.e. JERS that has so much data the surrounding of Japan as the archive. We examine the relationship between the geological structure and settlement at Nohbi basin including Nagoya city.

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Real-time seismic structural response prediction system based on support vector machine

  • Lin, Kuang Yi;Lin, Tzu Kang;Lin, Yo
    • Earthquakes and Structures
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    • 제18권2호
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    • pp.163-170
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    • 2020
  • Floor acceleration plays a major role in the seismic design of nonstructural components and equipment supported by structures. Large floor acceleration may cause structural damage to or even collapse of buildings. For precision instruments in high-tech factories, even small floor accelerations can cause considerable damage in this study. Six P-wave parameters, namely the peak measurement of acceleration, peak measurement of velocity, peak measurement of displacement, effective predominant period, integral of squared velocity, and cumulative absolute velocity, were estimated from the first 3 s of a vertical ground acceleration time history. Subsequently, a new predictive algorithm was developed, which utilizes the aforementioned parameters with the floor height and fundamental period of the structure as the new inputs of a support vector regression model. Representative earthquakes, which were recorded by the Structure Strong Earthquake Monitoring System of the Central Weather Bureau in Taiwan from 1992 to 2016, were used to construct the support vector regression model for predicting the peak floor acceleration (PFA) of each floor. The results indicated that the accuracy of the predicted PFA, which was defined as a PFA within a one-level difference from the measured PFA on Taiwan's seismic intensity scale, was 96.96%. The proposed system can be integrated into the existing earthquake early warning system to provide complete protection to life and the economy.