• Title/Summary/Keyword: earthquake prediction

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PREDICTION OF TOKAI EARTHQUAKE DISASTER DAMAGE IN HAMAMATSU CITY AND THE COMPARISON TO THE PREDICTION REPORT OF SHIZUOKA PREFECTURE GOVERNMENT USING GIS

  • Iwasaki, Kazutaka;Komiyaka, Tsukasa
    • Proceedings of the KSRS Conference
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    • 2007.10a
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    • pp.321-324
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    • 2007
  • It is commonly believed that a gigantic earthquake (Tokai Earthquake) could occur in Shizuoka Prefecture in the near future. The Shizuoka Prefecture Government made the prediction report of Tokai Earthquake disaster damage. But this report does not pay attention to the ground conditions. The authors make a prediction map using GIS of Tokai Earthquake disaster damage in Asada-cho and Hirosawa Ni-chome in the central Hamamatsu City and revealed the location of dangerous houses and dangerous points in road networks in each town. These information could be useful when people try to find escape routes in an earthquake.

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Prediction of Spectral Acceleration Response Based on the Statistical Analyses of Earthquake Records in Korea (국내 지진기록의 통계적 분석에 기반한 스펙트럴 가속도 응답 예측기법)

  • Shin, Dong-Hyeon;Hong, Suk-Jae;Kim, Hyung-Joon
    • Journal of the Earthquake Engineering Society of Korea
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    • v.20 no.1
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    • pp.45-54
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    • 2016
  • This study suggests a prediction model of ground motion spectral shape considering characteristics of earthquake records in Korea. Based on the Graizer and Kalkan's prediction procedure, a spectral shape model is defined as a continuous function of period in order to improve the complex problems of the conventional models. The approximate spectral shape function is then developed with parameters such as moment magnitude, fault distance, and average shear velocity of independent variables. This paper finally determines estimator coefficients of subfunctions which explain the corelation among the independent variables using the nonlinear optimization. As a result of generating the prediction model of ground motion spectral shape, the ground motion spectral shape well estimates the response spectrum of earthquake recordings in Korea.

The Abnormal Groundwater Changes as Potential Precursors of 2016 ML5.8 Gyeongju Earthquake in Korea (지하수위 이상 변동에 나타난 2016 ML5.8 경주 지진의 전조 가능성)

  • Lee, Hyun A;Hamm, Se-Yeong;Woo, Nam C.
    • Economic and Environmental Geology
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    • v.51 no.4
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    • pp.393-400
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    • 2018
  • Despite some skeptical views on the possibility of earthquake prediction, observation and evaluation of precursory changes have been continued throughout the world. In Korea, the public concern on the earthquake prediction has been increased after 2016 $M_L5.8$ and 2017 $M_L5.4$ earthquakes occurred in Gyeongju and Pohang, the southeastern part in Korea, respectively. In this study, the abnormal increase of groundwater level was observed before the 2016 $M_L5.8$ Gyeongju earthquake in a borehole located in 52 km away from the epicenter. The well was installed in the Yangsan fault zone, and equipped for the earthquake surveillance. The abnormal change in the well would seem to be a precursor, considering the hydrogeological condition and the observations from previous studies. It is necessary to set up a specialized council to support and evaluate the earthquake prediction and related researches for the preparation of future earthquake hazards.

A Cross-Validation of SeismicVulnerability Assessment Model: Application to Earthquake of 9.12 Gyeongju and 2017 Pohang (지진 취약성 평가 모델 교차검증: 경주(2016)와 포항(2017) 지진을 대상으로)

  • Han, Jihye;Kim, Jinsoo
    • Korean Journal of Remote Sensing
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    • v.37 no.3
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    • pp.649-655
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    • 2021
  • This study purposes to cross-validate its performance by applying the optimal seismic vulnerability assessment model based on previous studies conducted in Gyeongju to other regions. The test area was Pohang City, the occurrence site for the 2017 Pohang Earthquake, and the dataset was built the same influencing factors and earthquake-damaged buildings as in the previous studies. The validation dataset was built via random sampling, and the prediction accuracy was derived by applying it to a model based on a random forest (RF) of Gyeongju. The accuracy of the model success and prediction in Gyeongju was 100% and 94.9%, respectively, and as a result of confirming the prediction accuracy by applying the Pohang validation dataset, it appeared as 70.4%.

Prediction Equation of Spectral Acceleration Responses in Low-to-Moderate Seismic Regions using Domestic and Overseas Earthquake Records (국내·외 계기지진 정보를 활용한 중·약진 지역의 스펙트럴 가속도 응답 예측식)

  • Shin, Dong Hyeon;Kim, Hyung Joon
    • Journal of the Earthquake Engineering Society of Korea
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    • v.22 no.2
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    • pp.77-86
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    • 2018
  • This study develops an empirical prediction equation of spectral acceleration responses of earthquakes which can induce structural damages. Ground motion records representing hazards of low-to-moderate seismic regions were selected and organized with several influential factors affecting the response spectra. The empirical equation and estimator coefficients for acceleration response spectra were then proposed using a robust nonlinear optimization coupled with a regression analysis. For analytical verification of the prediction equation, response spectra used for low-to-moderate seismic regions were estimated and the predicted results were comparatively evaluated with measured response spectra. As a result, the predicted shapes of response spectra can simulate the graphical shapes of measured data with high accuracy and most of predicted results are distributed inside range of correlation of variation (COV) of 30% from perfectly correlated lines.

Groundwater Monitoring Network for Earthquake Surveillance and Prediction (국내 지진 감시·예측을 위한 지하수관측망의 활용 방안)

  • Lee, Hyun A;Hamm, Se-Yeong;Woo, Nam C.
    • Economic and Environmental Geology
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    • v.50 no.5
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    • pp.401-414
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    • 2017
  • To prevent the damages from earthquakes, various researches have been conducted around the world focusing on earthquake prediction and forecasting for several decades. Among various precursory phenomena, changes in groundwater level and quality are considered to be reliable for estimating the time of earthquake occurrence and its magnitude. In effects, some countries impacted by frequent earthquakes have established and operated the groundwater monitoring network for earthquake surveillance and prediction. In Korea, recently researches have begun for using groundwater monitoring techniques for earthquake prediction. In this paper, the groundwater monitoring networks of China, Japan, and the United States were reviewed focusing on the facilities and results of researches to deduce the tasks for earthquake prediction researches using groundwater monitoring techniques in Korea. In results, research needs are suggested in the implementation of groundwater monitoring networks for specifically earthquake surveillance with the real-time monitoring and the measures to quantify the degrees of abnormal changes in the relationship of distance from the earthquake epicenter.

A study on earthquake damage prediction system of gas facilities (도시가스시설물의 조기 지진피해평가시스템 구축을 위한 기초연구)

  • Kim, Ick-Hyun;Jung, Hyo-Soon;Jeong, Hyeok-Chang;Lee, Jong-Seok
    • Proceedings of the Earthquake Engineering Society of Korea Conference
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    • 2006.03a
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    • pp.366-373
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    • 2006
  • In order to reduce the secondary earthquake disaster resulting from the damage of gas facilities it is indispensable to establish an early response system on the basis of damage prediction. In this study the procedure of damage prediction for gas facilities is proposed and applied to the gas supply model area. Model area is divided into several little blocks. The soil condition and the characteristics of facilities were investigated at each block. Using fragility curves of facilities the damage level was analyzed under various seismicities. It is confirmed that the exposure gas pipe line in several blocks is damaged seriously by the collapse of building structures.

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Application of RS and GIS in Extraction of Building Damage Caused by Earthquake

  • Wang, X.Q.;Ding, X.;Dou, A.X.
    • Proceedings of the KSRS Conference
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    • 2003.11a
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    • pp.1206-1208
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    • 2003
  • The extraction of earthquake damage from remote sensed imagery requires high spatial resolution and temporal effectiveness of acquisition of imagery. The analog photographs and visual interpretation were taken traditionally. Now it is possible to acquire damage information from many commercial high resolution RS satellites. The key techniques are processing velocity and precision. The authors developed the automatic / semiautomatic image process techniques including feature enhancement, and classification, designed the emergency Earthquake Damage and Losses Evaluate System based on Remote Sensing (RSEDLES). The paper introduced the functions of RSEDLES as well as its application to the earthquakes occurred recently.

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Investigation of random fatigue life prediction based on artificial neural network

  • Jie Xu;Chongyang Liu;Xingzhi Huang;Yaolei Zhang;Haibo Zhou;Hehuan Lian
    • Steel and Composite Structures
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    • v.46 no.3
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    • pp.435-449
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    • 2023
  • Time domain method and frequency domain method are commonly used in the current fatigue life calculation theory. The time domain method has complicated procedures and needs a large amount of calculation, while the frequency domain method has poor applicability to different materials and different spectrum, and improper selection of spectrum model will lead to large errors. Considering that artificial neural network has strong ability of nonlinear mapping and generalization, this paper applied this technique to random fatigue life prediction, and the effect of average stress was taken into account, thereby achieving more accurate prediction result of random fatigue life.