• 한국수자원학회:학술대회논문집
• /
• 한국수자원학회 2011년도 학술발표회
• /
• pp.18-18
• /
• 2011

Climate change is impacting and will increasingly impact both the quantity and quality of the world's water resources in a variety of ways. In some areas warming climate results in increased rainfall, surface runoff, and groundwater recharge while in others there may be declines in all of these. Water quality is described by a number of variables. Some are directly impacted by climate change. Temperature is an obvious example. Notably, increased atmospheric concentrations of $CO_2$ triggering climate change increase the $CO_2$ dissolving into water. This has manifold consequences including decreased pH and increased alkalinity, with resultant increases in dissolved concentrations of the minerals in geologic materials contacted by such water. Climate change is also expected to increase the number and intensity of extreme climate events, with related hydrologic changes. A simple framework has been developed in New Zealand for assessing and predicting climate change impacts on water resources. Assessment is largely based on trend analysis of historic data using the non-parametric Mann-Kendall method. Trend analysis requires long-term, regular monitoring data for both climate and hydrologic variables. Data quality is of primary importance and data gaps must be avoided. Quantitative prediction of climate change impacts on the quantity of water resources can be accomplished by computer modelling. This requires the serial coupling of various models. For example, regional downscaling of results from a world-wide general circulation model (GCM) can be used to forecast temperatures and precipitation for various emissions scenarios in specific catchments. Mechanistic or artificial intelligence modelling can then be used with these inputs to simulate climate change impacts over time, such as changes in streamflow, groundwater-surface water interactions, and changes in groundwater levels. The Waimea Plains catchment in New Zealand was selected for a test application of these assessment and prediction methods. This catchment is predicted to undergo relatively minor impacts due to climate change. All available climate and hydrologic databases were obtained and analyzed. These included climate (temperature, precipitation, solar radiation and sunshine hours, evapotranspiration, humidity, and cloud cover) and hydrologic (streamflow and quality and groundwater levels and quality) records. Results varied but there were indications of atmospheric temperature increasing, rainfall decreasing, streamflow decreasing, and groundwater level decreasing trends. Artificial intelligence modelling was applied to predict water usage, rainfall recharge of groundwater, and upstream flow for two regionally downscaled climate change scenarios (A1B and A2). The AI methods used were multi-layer perceptron (MLP) with extended Kalman filtering (EKF), genetic programming (GP), and a dynamic neuro-fuzzy local modelling system (DNFLMS), respectively. These were then used as inputs to a mechanistic groundwater flow-surface water interaction model (MODFLOW). A DNFLMS was also used to simulate downstream flow and groundwater levels for comparison with MODFLOW outputs. MODFLOW and DNFLMS outputs were consistent. They indicated declines in streamflow on the order of 21 to 23% for MODFLOW and DNFLMS (A1B scenario), respectively, and 27% in both cases for the A2 scenario under severe drought conditions by 2058-2059, with little if any change in groundwater levels.

• 한국의학물리학회:학술대회논문집
• /
• 한국의학물리학회 2002년도 Proceedings
• /
• pp.53-60
• /
• 2002

Motion of lung tumors from respiration has been reported in the literature to be as large as of 1-2 cm. This motion requires an additional margin between the Clinical Target Volume (CTV) and the Planning Target Volume (PTV). While such a margin is necessary, it may not be sufficient to ensure proper delivery of Intensity Modulated Radiotherapy (IMRT) to the CTV during the simultaneous movement of the DMLC. Gated treatment has been proposed to improve normal tissues sparing as well as to ensure accurate dose coverage of the tumor volume. The following questions have not been addressed in the literature: a) what is the dose error to a target volume without gated IMRT treatment\ulcorner b) what is an acceptable gating window for such treatment. In this study, we address these questions by proposing a novel technique for calculating the 3D dose error that would result if a lung IMRT plan were delivered without gating. The method is also generalized for gated treatment with an arbitrary triggering window. IMRT plans for three patients with lung tumor were studied. The treatment plans were generated with HELIOS for delivery with 6 MV on a CL2100 Varian linear accelerator with a 26 pair MLC. A CTV to PTV margin of 1 cm was used. An IMRT planning system searches for an optimized fluence map ${\Phi}$ (x,y) for each port, which is then converted into a dynamic MLC file (DMLC). The DMLC file contains information about MLC subfield shapes and the fractional Monitor Units (MUs) to be delivered for each subfield. With a lung tumor, a CTV that executes a quasi periodic motion z(t) does not receive ${\Phi}$ (x,y), but rather an Effective Incident Fluence EIF(x,y). We numerically evaluate the EIF(x,y) from a given DMLC file by a coordinate transformation to the Target's Eye View (TEV). In the TEV coordinate system, the CTV itself is stationary, and the MLC is seen to execute a motion -z(t) that is superimposed on the DMLC motion. The resulting EIF(x,y)is inputted back into the dose calculation engine to estimate the 3D dose to a moving CTV. In this study, we model respiratory motion as a sinusoidal function with an amplitude of 10 mm in the superior-inferior direction, a period of 5 seconds, and an initial phase of zero.