• Title/Summary/Keyword: dynamic prediction method

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Numerical simulation on gas continuous emission from face during roadway excavation

  • Chen, Liang;Wang, Enyuan;Feng, Junjun;Li, Xuelong;Kong, Xiangguo;Zhang, Zhibo
    • Geomechanics and Engineering
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    • v.10 no.3
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    • pp.297-314
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    • 2016
  • With the mining depth continuously increasing, gas emission behaviors become more and more complex. Gas emission is an important basis for choosing the method of gas drainage, gas controlling. Thus, the accurate prediction of gas emission is of great significance for coal mine. In this work, based on the sources of gas emission from the heading faces and the fluid-solid coupling process, we established a gas continuous dynamic emission model, numerically simulated and applied it to the engineering. The result was roughly consistent with the actual situation and shows the model is correct. We proposed the measures of reducing the excavation distance and borehole gas drainage based on the model. The measures were applied and the result shows the overproof problem of gas emission disappears. The model considered the influence factors of gas emission wholly, and has a wide applicability, promotional value. The research is of great significance for the controlling of gas disaster, gas drainage and pre-warning coal and gas outbursts based on gas emission anomaly at the heading face.

Collapse Probability of a Low-rise Piloti-type Building Considering Domestic Seismic Hazard (국내 지진재해도를 고려한 저층 필로티 건물의 붕괴 확률)

  • Kim, Dae-Hwan;Kim, Taewan;Chu, Yurim
    • Journal of the Earthquake Engineering Society of Korea
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    • v.20 no.7_spc
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    • pp.485-494
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    • 2016
  • The risk-based assessment, also called time-based assessment of structure is usually performed to provide seismic risk evaluation of a target structure for its entire life-cycle, e.g. 50 years. The prediction of collapse probability is the estimator in the risk-based assessment. While the risk-based assessment is the key in the performance-based earthquake engineering, its application is very limited because this evaluation method is very expensive in terms of simulation and computational efforts. So the evaluation database for many archetype structures usually serve as representative of the specific system. However, there is no such an assessment performed for building stocks in Korea. Consequently, the performance objective of current building code, KBC is not clear at least in a quantitative way. This shortcoming gives an unresolved issue to insurance industry, socio-economic impact, seismic safety policy in national and local governments. In this study, we evaluate the comprehensive seismic performance of an low-rise residential buildings with discontinuous structural walls, so called piloti-type structure which is commonly found in low-rise domestic building stocks. The collapse probability is obtained using the risk integral of a conditioned collapse capacity function and regression of current hazard curve. Based on this approach it is expected to provide a robust tool to seismic safety policy as well as seismic risk analysis such as Probable Maximum Loss (PML) commonly used in the insurance industry.

Prediction of the Natural Frequency of a Soil-Pile-Structure System during an earthquake (지진하중을 받는 말뚝 시스템의 고유 진동수 예측)

  • Yang, Eui-Kyu;Kwon, Seon-Yong;Choi, Jung-In;Kim, Myoung-Mo
    • Proceedings of the Korean Geotechical Society Conference
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    • 2009.09a
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    • pp.976-984
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    • 2009
  • This study proposes a simple method that uses a simple mass-spring model to predict the natural frequency of a soil-pile-structure system in sandy soil. This model includes a pair of matrixes, i.e., a mass matrix and a stiffness matrix. The mass matrix is comprised of the masses of the pile and superstructure, and the stiffness matrix is comprised of the stiffness of the pile and the spring coefficients between the pile and soil. The key issue in the evaluation of the natural frequency of a soil-pile system is the determination of the spring coefficient between the pile and soil. To determine the reasonable spring coefficient, subgrade reaction modulus, nonlinear p-y curves and elastic modulus of the soil were utilized. The location of the spring was also varied with consideration of the infinite depth of the pile. The natural frequencies calculated by using the mass-spring model were compared with those obtained from 1-g shaking table model pile tests. The comparison showed that the calculated natural frequencies match well with the results of the 1-g shaking table tests within the range of computational error when the three springs, whose coefficients were calculated using Reese's(1974) subgrade reaction modulus and Yang's (2009) dynamic p-y backbone curves, were located above the infinite depth of the pile.

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Prediction of Dynamics of Bellows in Exhaust System of Vehicle Using Equivalent Beam Modeling (등가 보 모델링 방법을 이용한 차량 배기계의 벨로우즈 동특성 예측)

  • Hong, Jin Ho;Kim, Yong Dae;Lee, Nam Young;Lee, Sang Woo
    • Transactions of the Korean Society of Mechanical Engineers A
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    • v.39 no.11
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    • pp.1105-1111
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    • 2015
  • The exhaust system is one of the major sources of vibrations, along with the suspension system and engine. When the exhaust system is connected directly to the engine, it transfers vibrations to the vehicle body through the body mounts. Therefore, in order to reduce the vibrations transmitted from the exhaust system, the vibration characteristics of the exhaust system should be predicted. Thus, the dynamic characteristics of the bellows, which form a key component of the exhaust system, must be modeled accurately. However, it is difficult to model the bellows because of the complicated geometry. Though the equivalent beam modeling technique has been applied in the design stage, it is not sufficiently accurate in the case of the bellows which have complicated geometries. In this paper, we present an improved technique for modeling the bellows in a vehicle. The accuracy of the modeling method is verified by comparison with the experimental results.

An overview of acoustic and vibration research activities for the structural development of Korean space launchers (위성 발사체 구조 개발을 위한 음향/진동 연구)

  • Park, Soon-Hong
    • The Journal of the Acoustical Society of Korea
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    • v.39 no.4
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    • pp.342-350
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    • 2020
  • Acoustic and vibration research activities for the structural development of Korean space launch vehicles are introduced in this paper. Various dynamic loads exerted on a launch vehicle during its operation are summarized. The acoustical design method of payload fairings which protect satellites from harsh launch environment was reviewed. Several acoustic research activities were performed to enhance the analytical prediction ability during the development period of the Naro and the Nuri launcher. Specifically, the following research activities are reviewed: a test and vibro-acoustic analysis of composite cylinders whose layup properties are varied, a research on low-frequency acoustic load reduction by an acoustic resonator array and an acoustic test on the cylinder part of the Naro payload fairing. A vibro-acoustic analysis result for the Nuri launcher was introduced and predicted acoustic and vibration levels and measured ones are shown to be in a good agreement.

A Study of Optimization of α-β-γ-η Filter for Tracking a High Dynamic Target

  • Pan, Bao-Feng;Njonjo, Anne Wanjiru;Jeong, Tae-Gweon
    • Journal of Navigation and Port Research
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    • v.41 no.5
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    • pp.297-302
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    • 2017
  • The tracking filter plays a key role in accurate estimation and prediction of maneuvering the vessel's position and velocity. Different methods are used for tracking. However, the most commonly used method is the Kalman filter and its modifications. The ${\alpha}-{\beta}-{\gamma}$ filter is one of the special cases of the general solution provided by the Kalman filter. It is a third order filter that computes the smoothed estimates of position, velocity, and acceleration for the nth observation, and predicts the next position and velocity. Although found to track a maneuvering target with good accuracy than the constant velocity ${\alpha}-{\beta}$ filter, the ${\alpha}-{\beta}-{\gamma}$ filter does not perform impressively under high maneuvers, such as when the target is undergoing changing accelerations. This study aims to track a highly maneuvering target experiencing jerky motions due to changing accelerations. The ${\alpha}-{\beta}-{\gamma}$ filter is extended to include the fourth state that is, constant jerk to correct the sudden change of acceleration to improve the filter's performance. Results obtained from simulations of the input model of the target dynamics under consideration indicate an improvement in performance of the jerky model, ${\alpha}-{\beta}-{\gamma}-{\eta}$ algorithm as compared to the constant acceleration model, ${\alpha}-{\beta}-{\gamma}$ in terms of error reduction and stability of the filter during target maneuver.

Dynamic vulnerability assessment and damage prediction of RC columns subjected to severe impulsive loading

  • Abedini, Masoud;Zhang, Chunwei
    • Structural Engineering and Mechanics
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    • v.77 no.4
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    • pp.441-461
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    • 2021
  • Reinforced concrete (RC) columns are crucial in building structures and they are of higher vulnerability to terrorist threat than any other structural elements. Thus it is of great interest and necessity to achieve a comprehensive understanding of the possible responses of RC columns when exposed to high intensive blast loads. The primary objective of this study is to derive analytical formulas to assess vulnerability of RC columns using an advanced numerical modelling approach. This investigation is necessary as the effect of blast loads would be minimal to the RC structure if the explosive charge is located at the safe standoff distance from the main columns in the building and therefore minimizes the chance of disastrous collapse of the RC columns. In the current research, finite element model is developed for RC columns using LS-DYNA program that includes a comprehensive discussion of the material models, element formulation, boundary condition and loading methods. Numerical model is validated to aid in the study of RC column testing against the explosion field test results. Residual capacity of RC column is selected as damage criteria. Intensive investigations using Arbitrary Lagrangian Eulerian (ALE) methodology are then implemented to evaluate the influence of scaled distance, column dimension, concrete and steel reinforcement properties and axial load index on the vulnerability of RC columns. The generated empirical formulae can be used by the designers to predict a damage degree of new column design when consider explosive loads. With an extensive knowledge on the vulnerability assessment of RC structures under blast explosion, advancement to the convention design of structural elements can be achieved to improve the column survivability, while reducing the lethality of explosive attack and in turn providing a safer environment for the public.

A Study of Reinforcement Learning-based Cyber Attack Prediction using Network Attack Simulator (NASim) (네트워크 공격 시뮬레이터를 이용한 강화학습 기반 사이버 공격 예측 연구)

  • Bum-Sok Kim;Jung-Hyun Kim;Min-Suk Kim
    • Journal of the Semiconductor & Display Technology
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    • v.22 no.3
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    • pp.112-118
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    • 2023
  • As technology advances, the need for enhanced preparedness against cyber-attacks becomes an increasingly critical problem. Therefore, it is imperative to consider various circumstances and to prepare for cyber-attack strategic technology. This paper proposes a method to solve network security problems by applying reinforcement learning to cyber-security. In general, traditional static cyber-security methods have difficulty effectively responding to modern dynamic attack patterns. To address this, we implement cyber-attack scenarios such as 'Tiny Alpha' and 'Small Alpha' and evaluate the performance of various reinforcement learning methods using Network Attack Simulator, which is a cyber-attack simulation environment based on the gymnasium (formerly Open AI gym) interface. In addition, we experimented with different RL algorithms such as value-based methods (Q-Learning, Deep-Q-Network, and Double Deep-Q-Network) and policy-based methods (Actor-Critic). As a result, we observed that value-based methods with discrete action spaces consistently outperformed policy-based methods with continuous action spaces, demonstrating a performance difference ranging from a minimum of 20.9% to a maximum of 53.2%. This result shows that the scheme not only suggests opportunities for enhancing cybersecurity strategies, but also indicates potential applications in cyber-security education and system validation across a large number of domains such as military, government, and corporate sectors.

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Development for Estimation Improvement Model of Wind Velocity using Deep Neural Network (심층신경망을 활용한 풍속 예측 개선 모델 개발)

  • Ku, SungKwan;Hong, SeokMin;Kim, Ki-Young;Kwon, Jaeil
    • Journal of Advanced Navigation Technology
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    • v.23 no.6
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    • pp.597-604
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    • 2019
  • Artificial neural networks are algorithms that simulate learning through interaction and experience in neurons in the brain and that are a method that can be used to produce accurate results through learning that reflects the characteristics of data. In this study, a model using deep neural network was presented to improve the predicted wind speed values in the meteorological dynamic model. The wind speed prediction improvement model using the deep neural network presented in the study constructed a model to recalibrate the predicted values of the meteorological dynamics model and carried out the verification and testing process and Separate data confirm that the accuracy of the predictions can be increased. In order to improve the prediction of wind speed, an in-depth neural network was established using the predicted values of general weather data such as time, temperature, air pressure, humidity, atmospheric conditions, and wind speed. Some of the data in the entire data were divided into data for checking the adequacy of the model, and the separate accuracy was checked rather than being used for model building and learning to confirm the suitability of the methods presented in the study.

Assessing the Impact of Climate Change on Water Resources: Waimea Plains, New Zealand Case Example

  • Zemansky, Gil;Hong, Yoon-Seeok Timothy;Rose, Jennifer;Song, Sung-Ho;Thomas, Joseph
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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    • 2011.05a
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    • pp.18-18
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    • 2011
  • Climate change is impacting and will increasingly impact both the quantity and quality of the world's water resources in a variety of ways. In some areas warming climate results in increased rainfall, surface runoff, and groundwater recharge while in others there may be declines in all of these. Water quality is described by a number of variables. Some are directly impacted by climate change. Temperature is an obvious example. Notably, increased atmospheric concentrations of $CO_2$ triggering climate change increase the $CO_2$ dissolving into water. This has manifold consequences including decreased pH and increased alkalinity, with resultant increases in dissolved concentrations of the minerals in geologic materials contacted by such water. Climate change is also expected to increase the number and intensity of extreme climate events, with related hydrologic changes. A simple framework has been developed in New Zealand for assessing and predicting climate change impacts on water resources. Assessment is largely based on trend analysis of historic data using the non-parametric Mann-Kendall method. Trend analysis requires long-term, regular monitoring data for both climate and hydrologic variables. Data quality is of primary importance and data gaps must be avoided. Quantitative prediction of climate change impacts on the quantity of water resources can be accomplished by computer modelling. This requires the serial coupling of various models. For example, regional downscaling of results from a world-wide general circulation model (GCM) can be used to forecast temperatures and precipitation for various emissions scenarios in specific catchments. Mechanistic or artificial intelligence modelling can then be used with these inputs to simulate climate change impacts over time, such as changes in streamflow, groundwater-surface water interactions, and changes in groundwater levels. The Waimea Plains catchment in New Zealand was selected for a test application of these assessment and prediction methods. This catchment is predicted to undergo relatively minor impacts due to climate change. All available climate and hydrologic databases were obtained and analyzed. These included climate (temperature, precipitation, solar radiation and sunshine hours, evapotranspiration, humidity, and cloud cover) and hydrologic (streamflow and quality and groundwater levels and quality) records. Results varied but there were indications of atmospheric temperature increasing, rainfall decreasing, streamflow decreasing, and groundwater level decreasing trends. Artificial intelligence modelling was applied to predict water usage, rainfall recharge of groundwater, and upstream flow for two regionally downscaled climate change scenarios (A1B and A2). The AI methods used were multi-layer perceptron (MLP) with extended Kalman filtering (EKF), genetic programming (GP), and a dynamic neuro-fuzzy local modelling system (DNFLMS), respectively. These were then used as inputs to a mechanistic groundwater flow-surface water interaction model (MODFLOW). A DNFLMS was also used to simulate downstream flow and groundwater levels for comparison with MODFLOW outputs. MODFLOW and DNFLMS outputs were consistent. They indicated declines in streamflow on the order of 21 to 23% for MODFLOW and DNFLMS (A1B scenario), respectively, and 27% in both cases for the A2 scenario under severe drought conditions by 2058-2059, with little if any change in groundwater levels.

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