• Journal of International Area Studies (JIAS)
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• v.22 no.1
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• pp.91-112
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• 2018

This study examined the dynamic relationship between urbanization and energy consumption in China. As an alternative to the conventional method of having the same integration of time series and large samples, ARDL method and Toda-Yamamoto causality analysis were applied. As a result, urbanization income, income, and energy consumption have a long-term stable equilibrium. Urbanization and income have a positive effect on energy consumption in the long run, but short-term changes of urbanization and income have no significant effect on energy consumption changes. The adjusted coefficient was -0.2395, which was statistically significant. In the causality test, income and energy consumption are useful to predict each other, but urbanization is exogenous because there are no causality with other variables. Since the process of urbanization in China has been proceeding slowly and deliberately by the government, it can be seen that the long-term effects of urbanization are clear and exogenous.

• Proceedings of the Korean Society of Precision Engineering Conference
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• 1996.04a
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• pp.294-298
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• 1996

This paper presents an attempt to find the physical structure of dynamic systems which achieves the behavior of a given system function. The scheme pursued by te paper would be regarded as synthesizing dynamic systems, and a method to synthesize them analytically is proposed by means of bond graph prototypes. The method proposed adopts several concepts used to synthesize networks in the electrical field, but yet demonstrates its own strengths such as the freedom from the causality assignment and determination of junction types. Also, it is shown that this method has further advantages in reticulating a given specification into feedforward and feedback expansions relative to electrical network synthesis and the method introduced by Redfield. The proposed method is examined through an example to trace the outline of the analytical synthesis of dynamic systems using bond graph prototypes.

• Journal of Fisheries and Marine Sciences Education
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• v.28 no.1
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• pp.198-210
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• 2016

This study firstly aims to estimate a leading-price of Jeju flounders with various price-classes by fish weight and secondly plans to provide policy implications of flounder purchase projects by understanding dynamic changes and interactions among flounder producer price-classes caused by price impulses in the market. This study applies an unit root test for stability of data, uses a Granger causality test to estimate the leading-price among producer prices by fish weight, employs the vector autoregressive model to analyze statistical impacts among t-1 variables used in models, and finally utilizes impulse response analyses and forecast error variance decomposition analyses to understand dynamic changes and interactions among change rates of the producer prices caused by price impulses in the market. The results of the study are as follows. Firstly, KPSS, PP, and ADF tests show that the change rate of Jeju flounder monthly producer prices by fish weight differentiated by logarithm is stable. Secondly, the Granger causality test presents that the change rate of the 1kg flounder producer price strongly leads it of 500g, 700g, and 2kg flounder producer prices respectively. Thirdly, the vector autoregressive model indicates that the change rate of the 1kg producer price in t-1 period statistically, significantly influences it of own weight in t period and also slightly affects price change rates of other weights in t period. Fourthly, the impulse response analysis indicates that impulse responses of structural shocks for the change rate of the 1kg producer price are relatively more powerful in its own weight and in other weights than shocks emanating from price change rates of other weights. Fifthly, the variance decomposition analysis points out that the change rate of the 1kg producer price is relatively more influential than it of 500g, 700g, and 2kg producer prices respectively. In conclusion, the change rate of the 1kg Jeju flounder producer price leads the change rates of other ones and Jeju purchase projects need to be targeted to the 1kg Jeju flounder producer price as the purchase project implemented in 2014.

• Korean System Dynamics Review
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• v.7 no.2
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• pp.133-148
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• 2006

This study suggests a Causal Loop Diagram(CLD) of causality mechanism which are integrating matters of localization, networking, embeddedness & institutional thickness and collective learning. These five factors(localization, networking, embeddedness & institutional thickness, collective learning, innovative synergy) have been studied and proofed Also this study suggest a model of industry cluster based on holistic and global system thinking rather than local and linear thinking.

• Korean System Dynamics Review
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• v.9 no.1
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• pp.93-105
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• 2008

This study suggests a Causal Loop Diagram(CLD) of Causality Mechanism which are intergrating matter of for-profit hospital, non-for profit hospital, healthcare development, national medical spending. To coordinate each part theory, we suggest more developed medical system in our study. Through the system thinking, development of hospital as research center in industry can lesson the rise of medical spending effectively.

• Journal of Navigation and Port Research
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• v.26 no.2
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• pp.161-166
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• 2002

In view of the great disparity between forecasts of Shanghai port container handling capacity and its real results, we choose a dynamic forecast method by the causality model dynamic compensation to predict Shanghai port container handling capacity. And we forecast Shanghai port container handling capacity by using this method. We have made a satisfactory achievement, which provides a more reliable and practical way to forecast container handling capacity.

• Journal of Environmental Policy
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• v.12 no.3
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• pp.97-122
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• 2013

The ARDL(Autoregressive Distributed Lag) method is employed analyzes the long-run equilibrium relationships among environmental pollution($CO_2$ emissions) per capita, income levels per capita, and energy consumption per capita. The error correction model is employed to analyze the short-term effects of income and energy consumption on $CO_2$ emissions. The Toda-Yammamoto method is employed for causal analysis among the three variables. The results show that income levels, energy consumption, and $CO_2$ emissions are cointegrated. We found the N type relationship between income and $CO_2$ emissions. Long-term elasticities of income and energy consumption with respect to $CO_2$ emission were greater than their short-term elasticities. There were a bilateral causality between energy consumption and $CO_2$ emissions. There was a unilateral causality from $CO_2$ emissions to income and from energy consumption to income not vice versa. Energy consumption can be an important variable to contribute to forecasting $CO_2$ emissions.

• Korean System Dynamics Review
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• v.2 no.2
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• pp.119-134
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• 2001

Since 1998, government-led Korean venture business boom now proceeds into the stage of market-oriented venture business growth. At such a moment, this research is to clarify the relations between the success factors of Korean venture businesses, based on domestic and foreign documentary surveys and inquiry surveys over domestic venture businesses. This research starts from the necessity to overcome the limits of the existing researches by uni-dimensional probing research into success factors of Korean venture businesses and to manifest the multi-dimensional relations between the success factors from the various viewpoints. And this research adopts System-Dynamics methodology to manifest and utilize relations among those factors, avoiding the existing metrical approaches. This research can be called a new approach to the current ecosystems of Korean venture in which whether venture businesses success in Korea is considered to depend on the list on the stock market. For this, this research implemented verification analysis through the simulations of each factor at various levels to build causality map which clarifies the causality of success factors of venture businesses through the System-Dynamics methodology and to utilize it as a way of supporting tool for decision-making of venture businesses. This research will be able to suggest the reactions depending on various internal and external situations. This research tried to manifest the causality map of each factor on the basis of inquiry surveys and documentary surveys to verify feedback among each factor by the SD methodology. This research will be a basis bolster up the still fragile substructure of venture businesses through an efficient analysis framework using the verification of SD methodology and resulting outcomes from this research.

• Proceedings of the Korean System Dynamics Society
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• 2001.10a
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• pp.3-14
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• 2001

Since 1998, government-led Korean venture business boom now proceeds into the stage of market-oriented venture business growth. At such a moment, this research is to clarify the relations between the success factors of Korean venture businesses, based on domestic and foreign documentary surveys and inquiry surveys over domestic venture businesses. This research starts from the necessity to overcome the limits of the existing researches by uni-dimensional probing research into success factors of Korean venture businesses and to manifest the multi-dimensional relations between the success factors from the various viewpoints. And this research adopts System-Dynamics methodology to manifest and utilize relations among those factors, avoiding the existing metrical approaches. This research can be called a new approach to the current ecosystems of Korean venture in which whether venture businesses success in Korea is considered to depend on the list on the stock market. For this, this research implemented verification analysis through the simulations of each factor at various levels to build causality map which clarifies the causality of success factors of venture businesses through the System-Dynamics methodology and to utilize it as a way of supporting tool for decision-making of venture businesses. This research will be able to suggest the reactions depending on various internal and external situations. This research tried to manifest the causality map of each factor on the basis of inquiry surveys and documentary surveys to verify feedback among each factor by the SD methodology. This research will be a basis bolster up the still fragile substructure of venture businesses through an efficient analysis framework using the verification of SD methodology and resulting outcomes from this research.

• International Area Studies Review
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• v.13 no.2
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• pp.255-276
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• 2009

This article has examined the international transmission of returns among S&P500, Nikkei225 and SENSEX stock index cash markets using the daily closing prices covered from January 4, 2002 to February 6, 2009. For this purpose we employed dynamic time series models such as the Granger causality analysis and variance decomposition analysis based on VAR model. The main empirical results are as follows; First, according to Granger causality tests we find that S&P500 stock index has a significant prediction power on the changes of SENSEX and Nikkei225 stock index market and vice versa. However, US stock market's influence is dominant to the other stock markets at a significant level statistically. Second, according to variance decomposition, SENSEX stock index is more sensitive to the movement of S&P500 than that of Nikkei225 stock index. These kinds of empirical results shows that the three stock markets are integrated over times and these results will be informative for the international investors to build the world-wide investment portfolio and risk management strategies, etc.