• 한국수자원학회논문집
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• 제34권5호
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• pp.533-542
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• 2001

가뭄에 대한 대책을 수립하기 위해서는 각 가뭄상태별로 가뭄의 지속기간을 산정하는 것이 선행되어야 한다. 이러한 가뭄의 지속기간 분석에 사용할 수 있는 방법에는 비선형 물수지모형과 Palmer 가뭄심도지수방법이 있다. 비선형 물수지모형은 지표면과 대기의 수분이동을 고려한 물수지방법을 추계학적 변동에 의해 야기되는 건기와 습윤기 사이의 변환기간을 모의할 수가 있다. Palmer 가뭄심도지수는 강우량과 잠재증발산량을 바탕으로 기상학적으로 필요한 강우량과 실제강우량을 비교하여 가뭄의 정도를 나타내는 물수지방법이다. 본 연구에서는 한강유역에 대해 비선형 물수지모형과 Palmer 가뭄심도지수를 이용하여 가뭄의 지속기간을 산정하였다. 비선형 물수지모형을 사용하여 산정된 토양함수비에 따른 가뭄의 지속기관과 Palmer 가뭄심도지수를 이용하여 산정된 지수별 가뭄의 지속기간이 유사하게 나타났다. 연구 결과 한강유역에서의 극심한 가뭄상태에서 습윤기로 변환되는 지속기간이 약 3년으로 산정되었다.

• 대한토목학회논문집
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• 제32권3B호
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• pp.161-168
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• 2012

가뭄은 인간과 자연 환경 모두에 큰 영향을 주는 자연현상으로 이러한 가뭄의 분석 및 예측은 수자원 관리 부분에서 매우 중요한 요소가 된다. 본 연구에서는 한강의 상류유역인 평창강과 남한강 상류 유역을 대상으로 수문학적 가뭄을 정의하고 copula 이론을 이용하여 수문학적 가뭄의 결합 확률 분포를 유도하였다. 또한 이를 이용하여 가뭄의 재현기간을 산정하여 분석하였다. 연구에서 도출된 주요한 결과로부터, 1967년부터 2007년 사이에서 평창강 유역은 1981년에 발생한 550년 빈도, 남한강 상류 유역은 1973년의 110년 빈도의 가뭄이 가장 큰 가뭄 사상으로 나타났다.

• 한국환경과학회지
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• 제13권12호
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• pp.1041-1048
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• 2004

In this study the results of optimal water supply analysis by operating constraints of reservoirs during drought period are as follows. During drought period, water supply reliability is possible about $97\~61{\%}$ by CASE 1-CASE 5. Water supply reliability is possible about $97.3{\%}$ in case of the Andong dam and $87.7{\%}$ in case of the Imha dam by CASE 3. Also, under the constraints of CASE 4, water supply reliability is possible about $87.5{\%}$ in case of the Andong dam and $73.3{\%}$ in case of the Imha dam. The reason what low of available water supply ratio is decreased inflow of Imha dam. When compare standard deviation of average storage with standard deviation of storage, stable storage can be secured during successive drought period. And it also can minimize shortage of water during drought. therefore, it is impossible that reservoir supply sufficient water but change of operating condition is better than pervious on that followed by full reservoir level. It is need that the study for optimal water supply during drought period has to be continued.

• 대한원격탐사학회:학술대회논문집
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• 대한원격탐사학회 2007년도 Proceedings of ISRS 2007
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• pp.552-555
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• 2007

In this study, the MODIS NDVI for the period of $2000{\sim}2007$ was collected and processed to obtain VCI and SVI which are the quantitative indexes of drought. The VCI and SVI based on NDVI can be used for understanding seasonal pattern of vegetation, drought identification and quantitative analysis of drought. VCI and SVI compared with monthly precipitation ratio to average, Standardized Precipitation Index(SPI), and etc., which are used to identify spring drought, to analyze drought region, similarity and difference in drought severity. In addition, frequency of Spring droughts were calculated for the period of $2000{\sim}2007$, and the usability of the MODIS images as a tool for establishing countermeasures against drought was presented by analyzing drought frequently areas.

• 한국수자원학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국수자원학회 2020년도 학술발표회
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• pp.124-124
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• 2020

This study proposes a framework to evaluate extreme drought using the natural drought index and hot spot analysis. The study area was South Korea. Data were used from 59 automatic synoptic observing system stations. The variable infiltration capacity model was used for the period from 1981 to 2016. The natural drought index was constructed from precipitation, runoff and soil moisture data, which reflect the water cycle. The average interval, duration and severity of extreme drought events were determined following Run theory. The most extreme drought period occurred in 2014-2016, with 46 of 59 weather stations exhibition drought conditions and 78% exhibition extreme drought conditions. The Inje and Seosan station exhibited the longest drought duration of 6 months, and the most severe drought was 5 times higher than the extreme drought severity threshold. The hot spot analysis was used to explore the extreme drought conditions and showed an increasing trend in the middle and northeastern parts of South Korea. Overall, this study provides water resource managers with essential information about locations and significant trends of extreme drought.

• 한국농공학회지
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• 제41권5호
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• pp.43-52
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• 1999

In an effort to identify quantitatively historical drought conditions, and to evaluate their temporal and spatial variability , two commonly used drougth indices, the standardized precipitation index, SPI by Mckee and the Palmer drought severity index. PDSI were calculated from 54 meteorological stations, SPI was evaluated for different time scales, 3 to 48 months. As the compjtational spans for SPI increase from 3 to 48 months the frequency and intensity of drought decrease, but the duration of drought increase. When monthly and ten-day PDSIs were compared, the frequency and duratin of drought were almost equal and the intensity of drought differ slightly. The three month SPI has the advatage to detect the drought resulting from short-term shortage of rainfall, while PDSI had the advantage to detect the state of drought resulting from cumulated shortage of rainfall. The period-frequency spectrum analyses at Kangnung statino showed that the maximum value of relative frequency was 24.4% when the period was 5.2months, and the 6month SPI has most similar trends to PDSI.

• 한국지구과학회지
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• 제27권7호
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• pp.804-815
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• 2006

Meteorologists define a drought as a period of common dry weather. This may sound straightforward, but it is not so in reality. In this study, we attempted to identify meteorological drought conditions over South Korea. To evaluate the temporal and spatial variability of drought, we calculated two commonly used drought indices, the percent of normal precipitation (PNP) and the Palmer drought severity index (PDSI) calculated from fifty-eight meteorological stations below the Korean Meteorological Administration (KMA). The yearly precipitation has been growing gradually, and the amplitude between maximum and minimum also grow more explicitly from 1960's. According to the analysis of percentile anomaly of monthly precipitation, major drought duration was $1927{\sim}1929,\;1937{\sim}1939,\;1942{\sim}1944,\;1967{\sim}1968,\;1976{\sim}1977,\;1982{\sim}1983,\;1988,\;and\;1994{\sim}1995$. The severe drought occurred most frequently in Mokpo, Daegu, Jeonju, Busan, and Gangneung; it tended to occur more frequently in south sector than in mid sector of Korea and in south west sector than in south east sector. According to the analysis of seasonal distribution, extreme droughts occurred frequently in winter at Seoul, Gangneung, Jeonju, Daegu, and Busan. Severe droughts in summer were formed frequently at Seoul, Gangneung, and Mokpo, while that for spring at Jeonju, Daegu, and Busan. The results of PDSI distribution for the $1994{\sim}1995$ drought period were one of the most severe and widely spreaded droughts; it occurred most frequently in the south sector of South Korea. The comparison of time series between PDSI and Normal Percent showed that they exhibit a strong compatibility for the entire study period; it implies that both drought indices are useful method to indicate drought severity.

• 한국지하수토양환경학회지:지하수토양환경
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• 제27권5호
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• pp.18-31
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• 2022

To evaluate the impact of drought on agriculture in N. Korea, SPI (standardized precipitation index) analysis was carried out by utilizing time-series precipitation data during 1996 - 2003 when severe drought occurred throughout the country. The SPI value was estimated to reach 12 in approximately 60% of the total period, indicating that agricultural productivity deteriorated rapidly due to the long-term drought. The national average drought cycle, based on SPI 12, was estimated as 32.5 months for the last 40 years. However, when examined on 20-year basis, the drought cycle was shortened by 10.6 months in last 20 years (30.3 months) as compared to previous 20 years (40.9 months). Annual crop production continued to increase mainly in rice and maize until the mid-1990s, but declined sharply thereafter due to the drought. After the drought period, the production of potatoes of which growth is more resistant to drought started to increase to the production level comparable to those of rice and soybean. It is expected that changes in the agricultural production environment in N. Korea will be inevitable due to the climate change. To this end, using the results of the drought cycle analysis, it is possible to analyze the changes in the agricultural production environment in N. Korea in the future.

• 한국농공학회지
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• 제13권1호
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• pp.2177-2190
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• 1971

본 시험은 한발시기를 이앙적기연한발구와 적기이앙직후한발구 그리고 유수형성기한발구별로 처리하고 한천일수를 10일, 20일, 30일간 단수했을 때의 벼 생육과 수량에 미치는 영향을 구명하였다. 가. 기상상항은 평년에 비해 일반적으로 성화에 비가 많았고 일조시간은 적었으며 온도는 비슷한 편으로 벼 작항에는 별차이가 없었다. 나. 관개수질은 중성으로 양호하였다. 다. 본 시험포의 토질은 비옥토가 양호한 편으로 일반 답토양과 비슷한 성질의 것이었다. 라. 분얼기의 생육상항은 하발 유형별로 보면 이앙적기지연한발구가 다른 처리구에 비해 초장은 가장 부량하였으나 분얼수는 가장 많았고 이앙직후한발구에서 분얼수가 가장 적었다. 한천일수별에 있어서는 일반적으로 한천일수가 길수록 초장 분얼수가 현저히 부량하였다. 마. 출수상항은 이앙지연한발구가 다른 처리구에 비해 $1{\sim}2$일정도 늦은 경향이었다. 하천일수별에 있어서는 일정한 경향이 없었다. 바. 성숙기의 생육 및 수량상항에서 한발시기별을 보면 이앙직후 한발구가 다른 처리구에 비해 양호하였고 유수형성기한발구가 가장 부량하였다. 한천일수별에 있어서는 한천일수가 길수록 생육 및 수량이 현저히 감소되었다.

• 한국수자원학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국수자원학회 2022년도 학술발표회
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• pp.158-158
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• 2022

Ecological drought consequences have received a lot of attention in recent years. Thus, ecological drought was proposed as a new drought category to characterize the impact of drought on ecosystems. The current study used a unique drought index, the standardized supply-demand water index (SSDI), and a run theory to detect ecological drought occurrences and characteristics such as drought-affected area, drought severity, drought duration, drought frequency, and drought orientation in the Hwang River, an environmentally valuable region. Hence, to assess drought-prone areas, the bivariate probability and return period will be calculated using a two-dimensional joint copula. The core results show that (a) the Spatio-temporal characteristics of ecological drought were successfully recognized using the spatial and temporal identification approach; (b) in comparison to the SPEI meteorological drought index, the SSDI is more credible and can more readily and effectively capture the entire properties of ecological drought information; (c) the Hwang river had seen the most severe drought occurrences between the late 1990s and the mid-2020s, with 48.3 percent occurring before the twenty-first century; (d) Severe ecological drought occurrences occurred more frequently in most areas of the Hwang River (e) Only the drought duration and severity in the Hwang area were more responsive to temperature when temperatures rise around 1.1℃, the average drought duration and severity rise around 16 % and 26 %, respectively. This suggested that the Hwang River has been exposed to more severe heat stress in the twenty-first century. Thereupon droughts in the twenty-first century occurred with bigger affected regions, longer durations, higher frequency, and more intensity.