• KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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• v.39 no.1
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• pp.155-163
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• 2019

The knowledge about drought propagation is very important in accurate estimation of hydrological drought characteristics and efficient development of early warning system. This study investigated a probabilistic relationship of drought propagation based on Bayesian network model for historic period and for future projection under climate change scenario RCP 8.5 over the Han River basin. The results revealed that the propagation rate and lag time have increasing and decreasing trends from the historic period of 1967-2013 to the future periods of 2014-2053 and 2054-2100 under climate change, respectively. The probabilistic results of Bayesian model revealed that the probability of occurrence of lag time varied spatially and decreased when the intensity of meteorological drought changed from moderate to severe and extreme condition during 1967-2013. The values of probability increased in the first future period of 2014-2053 in several sub-basins and slight decreased in the second period of 2054-2100. The proposed probabilistic results will be useful for the decision makers to develop related policies with an appropriate insight toward the future drought status.

• Journal of Ecology and Environment
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• v.47 no.4
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• pp.241-249
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• 2023

Background: This study analyzed the drought responses of five forest tree species grown in Korean peninsula, Korean fir Abies koreana (Ak), eastern white pine Pinus strobus (Ps), keyaki Zelkova serrata (Zs), tulip tree Liriodendron tulipifera (Lt), and Japanese elm Ulmus japonica (Uj). Physiological (chlorophyll, root collar diameter [RCD]) and biochemical responses (non-structural carbohydrates, proline, lipid peroxidase and abscisic acid [ABA]) of the plants grown under mild (MD) and severe drought (SD) were compared. Results: In this study, three soil moisture regimes: control (100% precipitation), MD (60% reduction in precipitation) and SD (20% reduction in precipitation) were applied. Soil moisture content showed high water content in control site compared to MD and SD. A decline in RCD was found for Korean fir, keyaki, and tulip plants, with eastern white pine and Japanese elm showing no significant decline to the prolonged drought exposure (both MD and SD). Total chlorophyll showed a significant decline in Korean fir and tulip, with the sugar levels indicating a significant increase in Korean fir and keyaki species under SD compared to control plants. Non-significant decline in sugar level was noted for eastern white pine and Japanese elm. High accumulation of ABA, malondealdehyde and proline was noted in Korean fir, tulip, and keyaki under SD compared to control. Signs of tree mortality was only observed in Korean fir under MD (38%) and SD (43%). Conclusions: The observed findings indicate the drought responses of five tree species. The majority of the morpho-physiological (especially mortality) and biochemical variables assessed in our study indicate superior long-term drought resistance of Ps and Uj compared to the highly sensitive Ak, and moderately sensitive Lt and Zs. The results provided will help species selection for afforestation programs and establishment of sustainable forests, especially of drought-tolerant species, under increased frequency and intensity of spring and summer droughts.

• Spatial Information Research
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• v.10 no.3
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• pp.481-492
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• 2002

The severity and spatial Patterns of spring drought on the croplands arc investigated using satellite imagery(Landsat ETM+). It is necessary to analyze the area droughty conditions in order to decrease the damage and make the efficient policies. In this context, the information about soil moisture levels, which were fatal factors to the crop growth, was acquired from wetness calculated from Tasseled cap transformation. We confirmed that the wetness values have a strong correlation with NDVI and the principal components. The result showed that the intensity of vegetation covering the surface could be understood as the index of the impacts of drought on croplands and these relationships were effective to classify dry areas in satellite imagery.

• Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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• 2017.05a
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• pp.351-351
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• 2017

2014-2015년 우리나라 강수량이 평년에 비해 절반수준에 미치지 못해 극심한 가뭄을 일으켰으며, 이는 댐 용량 부족, 지하수 고갈 등 다양한 피해를 발생시켰다. 특히 소양강댐의 경우 1978년 이루 두 번째로 낮은 수위를 기록한바 있다. 우리나라의 경우 가뭄은 약 2-3냔 주기로 발생하고 있으며, 특히 2015년에 겪었던 가뭄은 물 용수공금 측면에서 막대한 영향을 미친 것으로 평가되어 신뢰성 있는 가뭄 분석이 중요한 요소로 대두되고 있다. 또한 지구온난화로 인해 기후변화의 영향으로 강수량의 증가가 일반적으로 전망되지만, 상대적으로 증가된 강우변동성으로 인해 가뭄 발생 빈도 및 강도도 동시에 증가할 것으로 전망되고 있다. 이러한 이유로 본 연구에서는 현재 가뭄을 신뢰성있게 평가하기 위해 Trivariate Copula 함수를 활용하여 가뭄분석을 수행하였다. 기존연구에서는 가뭄 지속시간(drought duration), 가뭄 심도(drought severity)를 활용한 이변량 가뭄 빈도 해석을 수행하였지만, 이는 다소 과소 추정 될 개연성이 있다. 이러한 이유로 본 연구에서는 가뭄강도(drought intensity) 변량을 추가로 분석하여 Trivariate frequency analysis 기법을 개발하였으며, 서울 관측소를 대상으로 분석하였다. 분석 결과 현재 가뭄은 역대 발생했던 가뭄 중 가장 큰 빈도를 기록하여 이에 대한 효과적인 가뭄 관리체계를 마련하기 위한 기초자료를 제공할 수 있을 것으로 기대된다. 또한 기존 Bivariate 빈도해석의 경우 Trivariate 빈도해석 보다 가뭄위험도를 다소 과소추정하는 것으로 나타나 Trivariate 해석이 다소 현실적인 접근 방법이라 사료된다.

• KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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• v.43 no.3
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• pp.309-319
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• 2023

Recently, the frequency and intensity of meteorological disasters have increased due to climate change. In South Korea, there are regional differences in vulnerability and response capability to cope with climate change because of regional climate characteristics. In particular, drought results from various factors and is linked to extensive meteorological, hydrological, and agricultural impacts. Therefore, in order to effectively cope with drought, it is necessary to use a composite drought index that can take into account various factors, and to evaluate future droughts comprehensively considering climate change. This study evaluated hydrologic risk(${\bar{R}}$) of future drought in the Nakdong River basin based on the Dynamic Naive Bayesian Classification (DNBC)-based composite drought index, which was calculated by applying Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), Streamflow Drought Index (SDI), Evaporate Stress Index (ESI) and Water Supply Capacity Index (WSCI) to the DNBC. The indices used in the DNBC were calculated using observation data and climate scenario data. A bivariate frequency analysis was performed for the severity and duration of the composite drought. Then using the estimated bivariate return periods, hydrologic risks of drought were calculated for observation and future periods. The overall results indicated that there were the highest risks during the future period (2021-2040) (${\bar{R}}$=0.572), and Miryang River (#2021) had the highest risk (${\bar{R}}$=0.940) on average. The hydrologic risk of the Nakdong River basin will increase highly in the near future (2021-2040). During the far future (2041-2099), the hydrologic risk decreased in the northern basins, and increased in the southern basins.

• Journal of The Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers
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• v.60 no.3
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• pp.1-13
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• 2018

Recently, the frequency and intensity of drought have been increasing due to the sudden abnormal climate in Korea. The occurrence of agricultural drought has been steadily increasing from 5 times in the 1980s to 2000s in 20 years, 6 times in the 10 years from 2000 to 2010, and 4 times in the recent period from 2011 to 2015. Therefore, this study analyzed the effect of water shortage caused by drought by improving the function of agricultural reservoir. The target area analyzed the data such as "Comprehensive Information System for Rural Water" operated by Korea Rural Community Corporation. As a result, we selected the target area as Wanju - gun, Jeollabuk - do in consideration of the rate of water storage compared with the normal 25 years, the completion year of the facility, the area of coverage per reservoir site and the low capacity. As a result of evaluating the improvement effect of agricultural facilities, it was analyzed that the irrigation area increased by about 25.7% when the water level was increased by 1m and the irrigation area increased by about 51.3% when the water level was increased by 2m. The results of the drought impact assessment after improving the function of the agricultural facilities were analyzed that it was effective to improve the function after more than 4m depth.

• Korean Journal of Soil Science and Fertilizer
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• v.30 no.3
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• pp.209-225
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• 1997

Daily rainfalls and evaporations from copper pan measured in Suweon from 1964 to 1996 were figured respectively so that past soil moisture deficits can be understood clearly at a glance in relation to the characteristics of weather. Past drought intensities in Suweon were computed on the basis of Oh's 50mm pan model estimating drought in terms of daily, monthly shortage of evapotranspiration and growthless time fraction. Yearly differences in drought seem to result mainly from yearly differences in rainfall distribution and intensity, because there is the periodical similarity in evaporation from year to year. The most intense drought continued from December, 1964 to June, 1965 for 190 days and the most frequent rainfalls were observed from June, 1989 to August, 1990 for 15 months. The applied Oh's drought estimation model was reinforced with figuring programs with a view to later application for other districts. Present economic value index of irrigation were distributed in the range of 120% to 210% of one season yield for spring chinese cabbage, calculated on the basis of 10 year's accumulation of its expectable future yield increase. Therefore, the same value can be invested for the installation of new irrigation system even only for spring chinese cabbage, if its depreciation period is 10 years.

• Atmosphere
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• v.31 no.5
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• pp.637-656
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• 2021

The United States has been known as the world's major producer of crops such as wheat, corn, and soybeans. Therefore, using meteorological long-term forecast data to project reliable crop yields in the United States is important for planning domestic food policies. The current study is part of an effort to improve the seasonal predictability of regional-scale precipitation across the United States for estimating crop production in the country. For the purpose, a dynamic downscaling method using Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model is utilized. The WRF simulation covers the crop-growing period (March to October) during 2000-2020. The initial and lateral boundary conditions of WRF are derived from the Pusan National University Coupled General Circulation Model (PNU CGCM), a participant model of Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation Climate Center (APCC) Long-Term Multi-Model Ensemble Prediction System. For bias correction of downscaled daily precipitation, empirical quantile mapping (EQM) is applied. The downscaled data set without and with correction are called WRF_UC and WRF_C, respectively. In terms of mean precipitation, the EQM effectively reduces the wet biases over most of the United States and improves the spatial correlation coefficient with observation. The daily precipitation of WRF_C shows the better performance in terms of frequency and extreme precipitation intensity compared to WRF_UC. In addition, WRF_C shows a more reasonable performance in predicting drought frequency according to intensity than WRF_UC.

• KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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• v.43 no.1
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• pp.33-41
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• 2023

Recently, global warming has accelerated climate change, increased extreme weather phenomena, and increased the frequency and intensity of weather disasters, leading to increasing uncertainty about the power production of new and renewable energy that is sensitive to weather. In fact, it has been reported that a number of damage to hydroelectric power generation have occurred due to weather disasters. Therefore, using the hydroelectric power generation performance data of Chungju Dam, meteorological data of Chungju Meteorological Observatory, and operation data of Chungju Dam, this study investigated the effect of meteorological disasters on hydroelectric power generation through structural equation modeling considering the number and intensity of meteorological disasters per month. The results indicated that the increased drought occurrence affected the decreased hydroelectric power generation by about 38.3 %, however the increased hydroelectric power generation could not explained by the increased flood occurrence. In conclusion, an increased drought occurrence in future may significantly influence hydroelectric power generation.

• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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• v.47 no.11
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• pp.997-1005
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• 2014

This study evaluated hydrological drought the using the annual minimum flow and the annual maximum deficit method and proposed the new concept of water deficit-duration-frequency curves similar to rainfall intensity-duration-frequency curves. The analysis results of the annual minimum flow, the return periods of hydrological drought in the most duration of 1989 and 1996yr were the longest. The analysis results of the annual maximum deficit, the return periods of 60-days and 90-day deficit which are relatively short duration were the longest in 1995yr, about 35-year, Hydrological drought lasted longer was in 1995, the return period was about 20-year. Though duration as well as magnitude is a key variable in drought analysis, it was found that the method using the annual minimum flow duration not distinguish duration.