• The Plant Pathology Journal
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• v.40 no.3
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• pp.290-298
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• 2024

K-Maryblyt has been developed for the effective control of secondary fire blight infections on blossoms and the elimination of primary inoculum sources from cankers and newly emerged shoots early in the season for both apple and pear trees. This model facilitates the precise determination of the blossom infection timing and identification of primary inoculum sources, akin to Maryblyt, predicting flower infections and the appearance of symptoms on various plant parts, including cankers, blossoms, and shoots. Nevertheless, K-Maryblyt has undergone significant improvements: Integration of Phenology Models for both apple and pear trees, Adoption of observed or predicted hourly temperatures for Epiphytic Infection Potential (EIP) calculation, incorporation of adjusted equations resulting in reduced mean error with 10.08 degree-hours (DH) for apple and 9.28 DH for pear, introduction of a relative humidity variable for pear EIP calculation, and adaptation of modified degree-day calculation methods for expected symptoms. Since the transition to a model-based control policy in 2022, the system has disseminated 158,440 messages related to blossom control and symptom prediction to farmers and professional managers in its inaugural year. Furthermore, the system has been refined to include control messages that account for the mechanism of action of pesticides distributed to farmers in specific counties, considering flower opening conditions and weather suitability for spraying. Operating as a pivotal module within the Fire Blight Forecasting Information System (FBcastS), K-Maryblyt plays a crucial role in providing essential fire blight information to farmers, professional managers, and policymakers.

• Research in Plant Disease
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• v.7 no.3
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• pp.150-154
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• 2001

The relationships between the weather conditions and the occurrence of rice bacterial grain rot caused by Burkholderia glumae during the rice heading period, were examined by analying the data accumulated from 1992 through 2000 and by conducting greenhouse and field experiment to develop a model far forecasting the disease. The disease severely occurred in 1994, 1995, 1998, and 2000, when it was high in temperature and rainfall during the heading period of middle-late rice varieties. While it occurred weakly in 1993 was high in rainfall and low temperature and it was reversely in 1997. When treated under wetting condition (above the 24-hour)after inoculation at heading period, the infection rate increased as the inculum concentration increased, it was 86.1% at 10$^{8}$ cfu/ml. When under drying condition, the disease of 12.5% occurred only at $^{8}$ cfu/ml. On the other hand, 1,000 grain weight and the percentage of ripened grains remarkably decreased as the infection rate increased.

• The Plant Pathology Journal
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• v.26 no.1
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• pp.17-24
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• 2010

A logistic model for describing combined effects of both temperature and wetness period on appressorium formation was developed using laboratory data on percent appressorium formation of Colletotrichum acutatum. In addition, the possible use of the logistic model for forecasting infection risks was also evaluated as compared with a first-order linear model. A simplified equilibrium model for enzymatic reactions was applied to obtain a temperature function for asymptote parameter (A) of logistic model. For the position (B) and the rate (k) parameters, a reciprocal model was used to calculate the respective temperature functions. The nonlinear logistic model described successfully the response of appressorium formation to the combined effects of temperature and wetness period. Especially the temperature function for asymptote parameter A reflected the response of upper limit of appressorium formation to temperature, which showed the typical temperature response of enzymatic reactions in the cells. By having both temperature and wetness period as independent variables, the nonlinear logistic model can be used to determine the length of wetness periods required for certain levels of appressorium formation under different temperature conditions. The infection model derived from the nonlinear logistic model can be used to calculate infection risks using hourly temperature and wetness period data monitored by automated weather stations in the fields. Compared with the nonlinear infection model, the linear infection model always predicted a shorter wetness period for appressorium formation, and resulted in significantly under- and over-estimation of response at low and high temperatures, respectively.

• Korean Journal Plant Pathology
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• v.3 no.3
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• pp.210-216
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• 1987

A computer program written to predict blast occurrence based on micro climatic events was developed and tested as an on-site microcomputer in field plots in 1984 and 1985. A microcomputer unit operating on alkaline batteries; continuously monitored air temperature, leaf wetness, and relative humidity; interpreted the microclimate information in relation to rice blast development and displayed daily values (0-8) of blast units of severity (BUS). Cumulative daily BUS values (CBUS) were highly correlated with blast development on the two susceptible cultivars, M-201 and Brazos grown in field plots. When CBUS values were used to predict the logit of disease proportions, the average coefficients of determination $(R^2)$ between these two factors were 71 to $91\%$, depending on cultivar and year. This was a significant improvement when compared to 61 to $79\%$ when days were used as a predictor of logit disease severity. The ability of CBUS to predict logit disease severity was slightly less with Brazos than M-201. This is significant inasmuch as Brazos showed field resistance at mid-sea­son. The results in this study indicate that the model has the potential for future use and that the model could be improved by incorporating other variables associated with host plants and pathogen races in addition to the key environmental variables.

• Genomics & Informatics
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• v.21 no.4
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• pp.50.1-50.9
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• 2023

Vaccine development is one of the key efforts to control the spread of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). However, it has become apparent that the immunity acquired through vaccination is not permanent, known as the waning effect. Therefore, monitoring the proportion of the population with immunity is essential to improve the forecasting of future waves of the pandemic. Despite this, the impact of the waning effect on forecasting accuracies has not been extensively studied. We proposed a method for the estimation of the effective immunity (EI) rate which represents the waning effect by integrating the second and booster doses of COVID-19 vaccines. The EI rate, with different periods to the onset of the waning effect, was incorporated into three statistical models and two machine learning models. Stringency Index, omicron variant BA.5 rate (BA.5 rate), booster shot rate (BSR), and the EI rate were used as covariates and the best covariate combination was selected using prediction error. Among the prediction results, Generalized Additive Model showed the best improvement (decreasing 86% test error) with the EI rate. Furthermore, we confirmed that South Korea's decision to recommend booster shots after 90 days is reasonable since the waning effect onsets 90 days after the last dose of vaccine which improves the prediction of confirmed cases and deaths. Substituting BSR with EI rate in statistical models not only results in better predictions but also makes it possible to forecast a potential wave and help the local community react proactively to a rapid increase in confirmed cases.

• Korean journal of applied entomology
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• v.25 no.4 s.69
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• pp.221-228
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• 1986

An empirical model to predict initial disease occurrence and subsequent progress of Alternaria leaf spot was constructed based on the modified degree day temperature and frequency of rainfall in three years field experiments. Climatic factors were analized 10-day bases, beginning April 20 to the end of August, and were used as variables for model construction. Cumulative degree portion (CDP) that is over $10^{\circ}C$ in the daily average temperature was used as a parameter to determine the relationship between temperature and initial disease occurrence. Around one hundred and sixty of CDP was needed to initiate disease incidence. This value was considered as temperature threshhold. After reaching 160 CDP, time of initial occurrence was determined by frequency of rainfall. At least four times of rainfall were necessary to be accumulated for initial occurrence of the disease after passing temperature threshhold. Disease progress after initial incidence generally followed the pattern of frequency of rainfall accumulated in those periods. Apparent infection rate (r) in the general differential equation dx/dt=xr(1-x) for individual epidemics when x is disease proportion and t is time, was a linear function of accumulation rate of rainfall frequency (Rc) and was able to be directly estimated based on the equation r=1.06Rc-0.11($R^2=0.993$). Disease severity (x) after t time could be predicted using exponential equation $[x/(1-x)]=[x_0/(1-x)]e^{(b_0+b_1R_c)t}$ derived from the differential equation, when $x_0$ is initial disease, $b_0\;and\;b_1$ are constants. There was a significant linear relationship between disease progress and cumulative number of air-borne conidia of Alternaria mali. When the cumulative number of air-borne conidia was used as an independent variable to predict disease severity, accuracy of prediction was poor with $R^2=0.3328$.

• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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• v.9 no.6
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• pp.1-9
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• 2022

The study aims to determine the factors and their influence on the income from using public agricultural land of households. Public agricultural land is agricultural land, including land for growing annual crops, perennial crops, and land for aquaculture, leased by commune-level People's Committees with a lease term of not more than 5 years. Secondary data were collected for the 2017-2021 period at state agencies. Primary data were collected from a survey of 150 households renting public agricultural land. The regression model assumed that there were 28 factors belonging to 7 groups. The test results show that 25 factors affect income, and 03 factors do not. The group of COVID-19 pandemic factors has the strongest impact, followed by the groups of agricultural product market factors, land factors, capital factors, production cost factors, labor factors, and climatic factors. The impact rate of COVID-19 pandemic factors is the largest (23.00%); The impact rate of climatic factors is the smallest (6.04%). Proposals to increase income include good implementation of disease prevention and control; increasing the land lease term; accurately forecasting the supply and demand of the agricultural market; raising the level of the household head; ensuring sufficient production capital, and adapting to the climate.

• Food preservation and processing industry
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• v.3 no.1
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• pp.42-46
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• 2004

Quality of fresh-cut tomato slices was compared during cold storage under various modified atmosphere packaging conditions. Chilling injury of slices in containers sealed with Film A was higher than with Film B; these films had oxygen transmission rates of 87.4 and 60.0 ml h-1 m-2 nun-1 at $5^{\circ}C$ and $99\%$ RH, respectively. While slices in containers with an initial atmospheric composition of air, $4\%$ CO2 + 1 or $20\%\;O_2, \;8\%\;CO_2+1$ or $20\%\;O_2$, or $12\%\; CO_2+\;20\%\;O_2$ showed fungal growth, slices in containers with $12\%\;CO_2 +\;1\%\;O_2$ did not. Low ethylene in containers enhanced chilling injury. Modified atmosphere packaging provided good quality tomato slices with a shelf-life of 2 weeks or more at $5^{\circ}C$. Experiments were conducted to compare changes in quality of slices of red tomato (Lycopersicon esculentum Mill. 'Sunbeam') fruit from plants grown using black polyethylene or hairy vetch mulches under various foliar disease management systems including: no fungicide applications (NF), a disease forecasting model (Tom-Cast), and weekly fungicide applications (WF), during storage at $5^{\circ}C$ under a modified atmosphere. Slices were analyzed for firmness, soluble solids content (SCC), titratable acidity (TA), pH, electrolyte leakage, fungi, yeasts, and chilling injury. With both NF and Tom-Cast fungicide treatments, slices from tomato fruit grown with hairy vetch (Vicia villosa Roth) mulch were firmer than those from tomato fruit grown with black polyethylene mulch after 12 days storage. Ethylene Production of slices from fruit grown using hairy vetch mulch under Tom-Cast was about 1.5- and 5-fold higher than that of slices from WF and NF fungicide treatments after 12 days, respectively. The percentage of water-soaked areas (chilling injury) for slices from tomato fruit grown.

• Proceedings of the Korean Society of Postharvest Science and Technology of Agricultural Products Conference
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• 2004.10a
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• pp.67-72
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• 2004

Quality of fresh-cut tomato slices was compared during cold storage under various modified atmosphere packaging conditions. Chilling injury of slices in containers sealed with Film A was higher than with Film B; these films had oxygen transmission rates of 87.4 and 60.0 ml $h^{-1}\;m^{-2}\;atm^{-1}$ at $5^{\circ}C\;and\;99\%$ RH, respectively. While slices in containers with an initial atmospheric composition of air, $4\%\;CO_2+1\;or\;20\%\;O_2,\;8\%\;CO_2+1\;or\;20\%\;O_2,\;or\;12\%\;CO_2+20\%\;O_2$ showed fungal growth, slices in containers with $12\%\;CO_2+1\%\;O_2$ did not. Low ethylene in containers enhanced chilling injury. Modified atmosphere packaging provided good quality tomato slices with a shelf-life of 2 weeks or more at $5^{\circ}C$. Experiments were conducted to compare changes in quality of slices of red tomato (Lycopersicon esculentum Mill. 'Sunbeam') fruit from plants grown using black polyethylene or hairy vetch mulches under various foliar disease management systems including: no fungicide applications (NF), a disease forecasting model (Tom-Cast), and weekly fungicide applications (WF), during storage at $5^{\circ}C$ under a modified atmosphere. Slices were analyzed for firmness, soluble solids content (SSC), titratable acidity (TA), pH, electrolyte leakage, fungi, yeasts, and chilling injury. With both NF and Tom-Cast fungicide treatments, slices from tomato fruit grown with hairy vetch (Vicia villosa Roth) mulch were firmer than those from tomato fruit grown with black polyethylene mulch after 12 days storage. Ethylene production of slices from fruit grown using hairy vetch mulch under Tom-Cast was about 1.5- and 5-fold higher than that of slices from WF and NF fungicide treatments after 12 days, respectively. The percentage of water-soaked areas (chilling injury) for slices from tomato fruit grown using black polyethylene mulch under NF was over 7-fold that of slices from tomato fruit grown using hairy vetch under Tom-Cast. When stored at $20^{\circ}C$, slices from light-red tomato fruit grown with black polyethylene or hairy vetch mulches both showed a rapid increase in electrolyte leakage beginning 6 hours after slicing. However, slices from tomato fruit grown using the hairy vetch mulch tended to have lower electrolyte leakage than those grown with black polyethylene mulch. These results suggest that tomato fruit from plants grown using hairy vetch mulch may be more suitable for fresh-cut slices than those grown using black polyethylene mulch. Also, use of the disease forecasting model Tom-Cast, which can result in lower fungicide application than is currently used commercially, resulted in high quality fruit for fresh-cut processing. Experiments were conducted to determine if ethylene influences chilling injury, as measured by percentage of slices exhibiting water-soaked areas in fresh-cut tomato slices of 'Mountain Pride' and 'Sunbeam' tomato (Lycopersicon esculentum Mill.). Ethylene concentration in containers without ventilation significantly increased during storage at $5^{\circ}C$, whereas little or no accumulation of ethylene occurred in containers with one or six perforations. Chilling injury was greatest for slices in containers with six perforations, compared to slices in containers with one perforation, and was over 13-fold greater than that of slices in control containers with no perforations. An experiment was also performed to investigate the effectiveness of including an ethylene absorbent pad in containers on subsequent ethylene accumulation and chilling injury. While ethylene in the no-pad controls increased continually during storage of both 'Mountain Pride' and 'Sunbeam' tomatoes at $5^{\circ}C$ under modified atmosphere conditions, no increase in accumulation of ethylene was observed in containers containing ethylene absorbent pads throughout storage. The ethylene absorbent pad treatment resulted in a significantly higher percentage of chilling injury compared with the no-pad control. In studies aimed at inhibiting ethylene production using AVG during storage of slices, the concentration of ethylene in control containers (no AVG) remained at elevated levels throughout storage, compared to containers with slices treated with AVG. Chilling injury in slices treated with AVG was 5-fold greater than that of controls. Further, we tested the effect of ethylene pretreatment of slices on subsequent slice shelf-life and quality. In slices treated with ethylene (0, 0.1, 1, or $10\;{mu}L\;L^{-1}$) immediately after slicing, ethylene production in non-treated controls was greater than that of all other ethylene pre-treatments. However, pretreatment of slices 3 days after slicing resulted in a different pattern of ethylene production during storage. Ihe rate of ethylene production by slices treated with 1 L $L^{-1}$ ethylene 3 days after slicing was greater during storage than any of the other ethylene treatments. With slices pre-treated with ethylene, both immediately and 3 days after slicing, the rate of ethylene production tended to show an negative correlation with chilling injury. Chemical name used: 1-aminoethoxyvinylglycine (AVG).

• Research in Plant Disease
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• v.18 no.4
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• pp.361-369
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• 2012

A population density model for bacterial wilt, which is caused by Ralstonia solanacearum, in hot pepper was developed to estimate the primary infection date after overwintering in the field. We developed the model mechansitically to predict reproduction of the pathogen and pathogensis on seedlings of the host. The model estimates the pathogen's populations both in the soil and in the host. In order to quantify environmental infection factors, various temperatures and initial population densities were determined for wilt symptoms on the seedlings of hot pepper in a chamber. Once, the pathogens living in soil multiply up to 400 cells/g of soil, they can infect successfully in the host. Primary infection in a host was supposed to be started when the population of the pathogen were over $10^9$ cells/g of root tissue. The estimated primary infection dates of bacterial wilt in 2011 in Korea were mostly mid-July or late-July which were 10-15 days earlier than those in 2010. Two kinds of meterological data, synoptic observation and field measurements from paddy field and orchard in Kyunggi, were operated the model for comparing the result dates. About 1-3 days were earlier from field data than from synoptic observation.