• 한국수자원학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국수자원학회 2016년도 학술발표회
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• pp.197-197
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• 2016

Forecasting future drought events in a region plays a major role in water management and risk assessment of drought occurrences. The creeping characteristics of drought make it possible to mitigate drought's effects with accurate forecasting models. Drought forecasts are inevitably plagued by uncertainties, making it necessary to derive forecasts in a probabilistic framework. In this study, a new probabilistic scheme is proposed to forecast droughts, in which a discrete-time finite state-space hidden Markov model (HMM) is used aggregated with the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 (RCP) precipitation projection (HMM-RCP). The 3-month standardized precipitation index (SPI) is employed to assess the drought severity over the selected five stations in South Kore. A reversible jump Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm is used for inference on the model parameters which includes several hidden states and the state specific parameters. We perform an RCP precipitation projection transformed SPI (RCP-SPI) weight-corrected post-processing for the HMM-based drought forecasting to derive a probabilistic forecast that considers uncertainties. Results showed that the HMM-RCP forecast mean values, as measured by forecasting skill scores, are much more accurate than those from conventional models and a climatology reference model at various lead times over the study sites. In addition, the probabilistic forecast verification technique, which includes the ranked probability skill score and the relative operating characteristic, is performed on the proposed model to check the performance. It is found that the HMM-RCP provides a probabilistic forecast with satisfactory evaluation for different drought severity categories, even with a long lead time. The overall results indicate that the proposed HMM-RCP shows a powerful skill for probabilistic drought forecasting.

• Advances in aircraft and spacecraft science
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• 제7권3호
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• pp.215-228
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• 2020

As is shown in the paper, the Koltunov-Rzhanitsyn singular kernel of heredity (when constructing mathematical models of the dynamics problem of the hereditary theory of viscoelasticity) adequately describes real mechanical processes, best approximates experimental data for a long period of time. A mathematical model of the problem of the flutter of viscoelastic plates moving in a gas with a high supersonic velocity is given. Using the Bubnov-Galerkin method, discrete models of the problem of the flatter of viscoelastic plates flowed over by supersonic gas flow are obtained. A numerical method is developed to solve nonlinear integro-differential equations (IDE) for the problem of the hereditary theory of viscoelasticity with weakly singular kernels. A general computational algorithm and a system of application programs have been developed, which allow one to investigate the nonlinear dynamic problems of the hereditary theory of viscoelasticity with weakly singular kernels. On the basis of the proposed numerical method and algorithm, nonlinear problems of the flutter of viscoelastic plates flowed over in a gas flow at an arbitrary angle are investigated. In a wide range of changes in various parameters of the plate, the critical velocity of the flutter is determined. It is shown that the singularity parameter α affects not only the oscillations of viscoelastic systems, but the critical velocity of the flutter as well.

• Computers and Concrete
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• 제16권2호
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• pp.311-327
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• 2015

Employing discrete elements for considering bond-slip effects in reinforced concrete structures is very time consuming. In this study, a new modified embedded element method is used to consider the bond-slip phenomenon in structural behavior of reinforced concrete structures. A comprehensive parametric study of RC slabs is performed to determine influence of different variables on structural behavior. The parametric study includes a set of simple models accompanied with complex models such as multi-storey buildings. The procedure includes the decrease in the effective stiffness of steel bar in the layered model. Validation of the proposed model with existing experimental results demonstrates that the model is capable of considering the bond-slip effects in embedded elements. Results demonstrate the significant effect of bond-slip on total behavior of structural members. Concrete characteristic strengths, steel yield stress, bar diameter, concrete coverage and reinforcement ratios are the parameters considered in the parametric study. Results revealed that the overall behavior of slab is significantly affected by bar diameter compared with other parameters. Variation of steel yield stress has insignificant impact in static response of RC slabs; however, its effect in cyclic behavior is important.

• 한국생활과학회지
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• 제15권3호
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• pp.491-499
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• 2006

The purpose of this study is to measure the pizza purchasing behavioral characteristics of respondents and importances of factors affecting pizza purchase, to estimate the effects of attributes on choice of pizza restaurant, and to predict probability of selecting a particular pizza restaurant. The questionnaire consisted of two parts: The paired experimental profiles, purchasing behavior and importances of factors affecting pizza purchase. This study generated profiles of 16 hypothetical pizza restaurants based on seven attributes. The profiles comprised 16 discrete sets of variables, each of which had two levels. For this study, researcher randomly selected 150 university students as respondents. Twenty one students did not complete the survey instrument, resulting in a final sample size of 129. All estimations were carried out using frequencies, $X^2$, independent samples t-test, phreg procedure of SAS package. The results were as followed: Some purchasing behavioral characteristics and importances of factors affecting pizza purchase were significantly different by purchase frequency. Based on the estimated models developed for the two purchase frequency groups, the Chi-square statistics were significant at p<0.001. The parameter estimate for late delivery time with frequently purchase frequency group was highest, and the parameter estimate for price with frequently purchase frequency group was highest. The pizza restaurants that charged 20,000 won, offered 100% discount on eleventh pizza, promised to deliver pizza in 20 min, usually delivered the pizza as promised, offered 2 or more types of pizza crust, delivered steaming hot pizza, and did not offer a money-back guarantee which was favored by each of the two purchase frequency groups. The results from this study suggested that there was an opportunity to increase market share and profit by improving operations so that customers can receive discount and money-back guarantee simultaneously, and by reducing price, delivery time.

• 대한기계학회논문집A
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• 제24권7호
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• pp.1779-1786
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• 2000

Most of traditional design processes of mechanical parts are regarded as sequential and discrete, since different kinds of softwas should be introduced. In this paper, we develop an integrated fram ework for virtual design and performance testing of an automobile seat. The system is composed of four modules, i.e. CAD, static analysis, dynamic analysis, and draft drawing module. In the CAD module, PRO/ENGINEER 3D seat model is created using parameters to be modified with the result of static and dynamic analysis. In the static analysis, headrest tere used in each design stage make it difficult to feedback their results to upstream process. These discrete processes may result in time loss and cost rise. In recent years, life cycle of product is reduced. To have competence with others, new concept design processt is simulated using ANSYS. In the dynamic analysis module, FMVSS201 test is simulated using DADS. Overall data flow is controlled by Motif. The advantage of the system is that even a novice can perform and review the whole design process, without a good hand at professional design/analysis S/W in each stage. The system also provides a virtual design space, where engineers in different development stage can access common data of design models. The concept could be applied to other fields and it could reduce time and money required in design process.

• 화약ㆍ발파
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• 제41권3호
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• pp.62-72
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• 2023

1970년대 산업화에 따른 플랜트 구조물이 노후화됨에 따라 구조적 기능을 상실해 발파 해체 공법을 활용한 해체 철거 수요가 증가하고 있다. 발파 해체공법은 기계식 해체공법에 비해 해체 공기가 짧아 환경공해 발생 노출 시간을 최소화할 수 있지만 잘못된 발파 설계 및 시공 계획에 따른 붕괴거동의 실패는 안전성에 매우 큰 위험을 유발한다. 따라서 붕괴거동 모사를 통해 최적의 발파 해체 조건과 이에 따른 영향을 고려하는 것이 중요하다. 본 연구에서는 Finite element method (FEM)와 Discrete element method (DEM)의 장점을 활용해 구축된 3-D Combined finite discrete element method (FDEM) 코드 기반 3-D DFPA 를 적용해 (구)서천화력발전소의 연돌 구조물에 대한 해체 모사를 수행하였으며 실제 구조물의 연돌 구조물 발파해체의 붕괴거동과 비교 분석하였다. 수치 모사 결과, 실제 구조물과 붕괴 거동 및 붕괴 완료 시간이 동일하게 나타났다. 또한, 발파구간 개구부 상부에 위치한 후드부의 크기가 연돌의 붕괴거동에 미치는 영향을 분석하기 위해 후드부의 면적을 조정하여 해체 모사를 수행하고 균열 발생 양상 및 z-방향 변위 곡선을 통해 비교 분석하였다. 분석 결과, 후드부의 면적이 증가함에 따라 하중을 지지하는 면적이 줄어들고 그에 따른 균열 발생 증가 및 전도 시간 감소를 확인하였다.

• 제어로봇시스템학회:학술대회논문집
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• 제어로봇시스템학회 1997년도 한국자동제어학술회의논문집; 한국전력공사 서울연수원; 17-18 Oct. 1997
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• pp.1520-1523
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• 1997

A rigorous dynamic simulation was performed in binary gas mixture H$_{2}$/CO (70:30 vol.%) to determinate start-up operating conditions of PSA(Pressure Swing Adsorption) processes. The rigorous dynamic model for the PSA process contains an Ergun equation for expressing the pressure drop in a bed, and valve equations to compute the boundary pressure change of the bed. As the result of the continuous dynamic simulation of 100 operating cyles in various initial conditions, the unsteady-state appeared in the early period and the cyclic steady-state came out about 20th cycle in feed condition and vaccum condition, and 30th cycle in pure H$_{2}$ condition. As time goes by valve equations made change the pressure at each end of the bed in ressurization, countercurrunt-depressurization and pressure equalization steps. The H$_{2}$ purity and the recovery is 99.99% and 86.73% respectively, which is slightly higher than the experimental data. Main contributiion of this study includes supplying fundamental technologies of handling combined variables PSA processes by developing rigorous models.

• 제어로봇시스템학회:학술대회논문집
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• 제어로봇시스템학회 2003년도 ICCAS
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• pp.1443-1448
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• 2003

Model Predictive Control (MPC) has recently found wide acceptance in industrial applications, but its potential has been much impounded by linear models due to the lack of a similarly accepted nonlinear modelling or data based technique. The authors have recently developed a new method for obtaining Volterra kernels of up to third order by use of pseudorandom M-sequence. By use of this method, nonparametric NMPC is derived in discrete-time using multi-dimensional convolution between plant data and Volterra kernel measurements. This approach is applied to an industrial polymerisation process using Volterra kernels of up to the third order. Results show that the nonparametric approach is very efficient and effective and considerably outperforms existing methods, while retaining the original data-based spirit and characteristics of linear MPC.

• ETRI Journal
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• 제37권1호
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• pp.175-185
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• 2015

This paper presents a system-of-systems (SoS) approach to the formal modeling of a cyber-physical system (CPS) for simulation-based analysis. The approach is based on a convergence technology for modeling and simulation of a highly complex system in which SoS modeling methodology, hybrid systems modeling theory, and simulation interoperation technology are merged. The methodology maps each constituent system of a CPS to a disparate model of either continuous or discrete types. The theory employs two formalisms for modeling of the two model types with formal specification of interfaces between them. Finally, the technology adapts a simulation bus called DEVS BUS whose protocol synchronizes time and exchange messages between subsystems simulation. Benefits of the approach include reusability of simulation models and environments, and simulation-based analysis of subsystems of a CPS in an inter-relational manner.

• Journal of applied mathematics & informatics
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• 제27권1_2호
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• pp.441-452
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• 2009

In this paper, a fifth order numerical method is presented for solving singularly perturbed differential-difference equations with negative shift. In recent papers the term negative shift has been using for delay. Similar boundary value problems are associated with expected first exit time problem of the membrane, potential in models for neuron and in variational problems in control theory. In the numerical treatment for such type of boundary value problems, first we use Taylor approximation to tackle terms containing small shifts which converts it to a boundary value problem for singularly perturbed differential equation. The two point boundary value problem is transformed into general first order ordinary differential equation system. A discrete approximation of a fifth order compact difference scheme is presented for the first order system and is solved using the boundary conditions. Several numerical examples are solved and compared with exact solution. It is observed that present method approximates the exact solution very well.