• Journal of Preventive Medicine and Public Health
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• v.57 no.2
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• pp.120-127
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• 2024

Objectives: The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic led to increased mortality rates. To assess this impact, this ecological study aimed to estimate the excess death counts in southern Iran. Methods: The study obtained weekly death counts by linking the National Death Registry and Medical Care Monitoring Center repositories. The P-score was initially estimated using a simple method that involved calculating the difference between the observed and expected death counts. The interrupted time series analysis was then used to calculate the mean relative risk (RR) of death during the first year of the pandemic. Results: Our study found that there were 5571 excess deaths from all causes (P-score=33.29%) during the first year of the COVID-19 pandemic, with 48.03% of these deaths directly related to COVID-19. The pandemic was found to increase the risk of death from all causes (RR, 1.26; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.19 to 1.33), as well as in specific age groups such as those aged 35-49 (RR, 1.21; 95% CI, 1.12 to 1.32), 50-64 (RR, 1.38; 95% CI, 1.28 to 1.49), and ≥65 (RR, 1.29; 95% CI, 1.12 to 1.32) years old. Furthermore, there was an increased risk of death from cardiovascular diseases (RR, 1.17; 95% CI, 1.11 to 1.22). Conclusions: There was a 26% increase in the death count in southern Iran during the COVID-19 pandemic. More than half of these excess deaths were not directly related to COVID-19, but rather other causes, with cardiovascular diseases being a major contributor.

• Asian Pacific Journal of Cancer Prevention
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• v.14 no.10
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• pp.6181-6184
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• 2013

Background: Lung cancer is the most frequent cancer in males and the fourth most frequent site in females, worldwide. This study is the first to explore the profile of lung cancer in Kuwait. Materials and Methods: Cases of primary lung cancer (Kuwaiti) in Kuwait cancer Registry (KCR) were grouped in 4 periods (10 years each) from 1970-2009. Epidemiological measures; age standardized incidence rate (ASIR) with 95% confidence intervals (CI), Standardized rate ratio (SRR) and Cumulative risk and Forecasting to year 2020-2029 used for analysis. Results: Between years, 2000-2009 lung cancer ranked the 4th and the 9th most frequent cancer in males and females respectively. M:F ratio 1:3. Mean age at diagnosis (95%CI) was 65.2 (63.9-66.4) years. The estimated risk of developing lung cancer before the age of 75 years in males is 1.8% (1/56), and 0.6 (1/167) in females. The ASIR for male cases was 11.7, 17.1, 17.0, 14.0 cases/100,000 population in the seventies, eighties, nineties and in 2000-2009 respectively. Female ASIR was 2.3, 8.4, 5.1, 4.4 cases/100,000 population in the same duration. Lung cancer is the leading cause cancer death in males 168 (14.2%) and the fifth cause of death due to cancer in females accounting for 6.1% of all cancer deaths. The ASMR (95%CI) was 8.1 (6.6-10.0) deaths/100,000 population and 2.8 (1.3-4.3) deaths/100,000 population in males and females respectively. The estimated Mortality to incidence Ratio was 0.6. Conclusions: The incidence of lung cancer between years 2000-2009 is not different from that reported in the seventies. KCR is expecting the number of lung cancer cases to increase.

• Asian Pacific Journal of Cancer Prevention
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• v.13 no.5
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• pp.2213-2218
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• 2012

Introduction: Worldwide, breast cancer is the commonest cause of cancer death in women. However, the survival rate varies across regions at averages of 73%and 57% in the developed and developing countries, respectively. Objective: This study aimed to determine the survival rate of breast cancer among the women of Malaysia and characteristics of the survivors. Method: A retrospective cohort study was conducted on secondary data obtained from the Breast Cancer Registry and medical records of breast cancer patients admitted to Hospital Kuala Lumpur from 2005 to 2009. Survival data were validated with National Birth and Death Registry. Statistical analysis applied logistic regression, the Cox proportional hazard model, the Kaplan-Meier method and log rank test. Results: A total of 868 women were diagnosed with breast cancer between January 2005 and December 2009, comprising 58%, 25% and 17% Malays, Chinese and Indians, respectively. The overall survival rate was 43.5% (CI 0.573-0.597), with Chinese, Indians and Malays having 5 year survival rates of 48.2% (CI 0.444-0.520), 47.2% (CI 0.432-0.512) and 39.7% (CI 0.373-0.421), respectively (p<0.05). The survival rate was lower as the stages increased, with the late stages were mostly seen among the Malays (46%), followed by Chinese (36%) and Indians (34%). Size of tumor>3.0cm; lymph node involvement, ERPR, and HER 2 status, delayed presentation and involvement of both breasts were among other factors that were associated with poor survival. Conclusions: The overall survival rate of Malaysian women with breast cancer was lower than the western figures with Malays having the lowest because they presented at late stage, after a long duration of symptoms, had larger tumor size, and had more lymph nodes affected. There is an urgent need to conduct studies on why there is delay in diagnosis and treatment of breast cancer women in Malaysia.

• Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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• v.9 no.2
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• pp.311-322
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• 1998

In this paper the problem of modeling count data where the observation period is determined by the survival time of the individual under study is considered. We assume marginal frailty model in the counts. We assume that the death times follow a Weibull distribution with a rate that depends on some covariates. For the counts, given a frailty, a Poisson process is assumed with the intensity depending on time and the covariates. A gamma model is assumed for the frailty. Maximum likelihood estimators of the model parameters are obtained. The model is applied to data set of patients with breast cancer who received a bone marrow transplant. A model for the time to death and the number of supportive transfusions a patient received is constructed and consequences of the model are examined.

• Journal of Preventive Medicine and Public Health
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• v.35 no.4
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• pp.322-330
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• 2002

Objective: This study was conducted to automatically improve the completeness and validity of the Daegu Cancer Registry, using cross record linkage of many data sources, and to develop a computerized patient enrollment system for efficient communication among cancer researchers via the internet. Method: We analyzed 10,229 cancer patients who were reported in the National Cancer Registry, and from pathological reports, health insurance cancer claims lists, cancer patient records at hospital information centers and death certificates from the Korea National Statistical Office. Result: We confirmed 4,624 cancer patients and found 897 of new cases from a review of medical chart. The new cases were detected efficiently using cross record linkage. We developed a computerized patient enrollment system, based on a client-sewer model, for the input of cancer patients, and then developed a web-based reporting homepage and patient enrollment system for the internet. Conclusion: This system could manage cancer databases systematically, and could be given to other researchers as a basic database.

• Asian Pacific Journal of Cancer Prevention
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• v.17 no.sup3
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• pp.225-229
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• 2016

Cancer registration is an important component of a comprehensive cancer control program, providing timely data and information for research and administrative use. Capture-recapture methods have been used as tools to investigate completeness of cancer registry data. This study aimed to estimate the completeness of lung cancer cases registered in Ardabil Population Based Cancer Registry (APBCR) with a three-source capture-recapture method. Data for all new cases of lung cancer reported by three sources (pathology reports, death certificates, and medical records) to APBCR for 2006 and 2008 were obtained. Duplicate cases shared among the three sources were identified based on similarity of first name, last name and father's names. A log-linear model was used to estimate number of missed cases and to control for dependency among sources. A total of 218 new cases of lung cancer was reported by three sources after removing duplicates. The estimated completeness calculated by log-linear method was 26.4 for 2006 and 27.1 for 2008. The completeness differed according to gender. In men, the completeness was 26.0% for 2006 and 28.1 for 2008. In women, the completeness was 36.5% for 2006 and 46.9 for 2008. In conclusion, none of the three sources can be considered as a reliable source for accurate cancer incidence estimation.

• Asian Pacific Journal of Cancer Prevention
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• v.17 no.sup3
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• pp.93-99
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• 2016

Completeness is an important indicator of data quality in cancer registry programs. This study aimed to estimate the completeness of registered cases in a population based cancer registry program implemented in five provinces of Iran. Capture-recapture methods were used to estimate the number of cases that may have been missed and to estimate rates of completeness for different categories of age, year, and sex. The data used for this study were obtained from three sources: 1) National Pathology Database; 2) National Hospital Discharge Database; and 3) National Death Registry Database. The three sources were linked and duplicates were identified based on first name, last name, father's names, and date of birth, ICD code, and case's residency address using Microsoft Excel. Removing duplicates, the three sources reported a total of 35,643 cases from March 2008 to March 2011. Running many different multivariate models of capture-recapture and controlling for source dependencies revealed an overall under-reporting of 49% in all five registries combined. The estimated completeness differed based on age, sex, and year. The overall completeness was higher for males than females (71.2% for males and 59.9% for females). Younger age had lower rates of completeness compared to older age (38.1% for <40 years, 55.4% for 40-60 years, and 76.7 for >60 years). The results of this study indicated a moderate to severe (depending on the age, sex and year) degree of completeness in the population based cancer registration of Iran.

• Journal of Preventive Medicine and Public Health
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• v.42 no.2
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• pp.130-134
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• 2009

Objectives : A method of estimation using 8 populationbased cancer registries databases in Korea(KRCR DB) has been introduced as another strategy for validly estimating the national cancer incidence(NCI) in Korea. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the validity of this method with using the 7 KRCR DBs, excluding Seoul covering 21% of the total population of Korea. Methods : We designed the study method(NCSE_7) as same as the estimating method with using 8 KRCR DBs (NCSE_8) in order to ensure maximal comparability. We defined the expected number of cancer cases in each registry as the number of observed cases and then we added the weighted observed cases according to gender, age and the proportion of the population covered by each registry for the population of the seven regions and the population of all areas, with excluding these seven regions. From the expected number of total cancer incidents, the estimated NCI was calculated by dividing the expected number of cancer cases by the number of the total population. The standard error(SE) of the estimated incidence was also taken from the expected number of total cancer incidents. Results : Compared with the results of the NCSE_8, the overall age-standardized rates(ASR) in men and women became over-estimated and under-estimated, respectively. Primary sites that showed statistically significant differences were the colo-rectum, prostate, breast and thyroid. The index of death certificate only(DCO)and microscopically verified(MV)% indicating levels of data quality were decreased, especially for the brain in DCO% and kidney in the MV%. Conclusions : The database of Seoul regional cancer registry has a key role for the method to estimate the valid nationwide cancer statistics in Korea with using the population-based cancer registries databases.

• Journal of Preventive Medicine and Public Health
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• v.44 no.4
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• pp.185-189
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• 2011

Objectives: In 1995, an outbreak survey in Gozan-dong concluded that an association between fiberglass exposure in drinking water and cancer outbreak cannot be established. This study follows the subjects from a study in 1995 using a data linkage method to examine whether an association existed. The authors will address the potential benefits and methodological issues following outbreak surveys using data linkage, particularly when informed consent is absent. Methods: This is a follow-up study of 697 (30 exposed) individuals out of the original 888 (31 exposed) participants (78.5%) from 1995 to 2007 assessing the cancer outcomes and deaths of these individuals. The National Cancer Registry (KNCR) and death certificate data were linked using the ID numbers of the participants. The standardized incidence ratio (SIR) and standardized mortality ratio (SMR) from cancers were calculated by the KNCR. Results: The SIR values for all cancer or gastrointestinal cancer (GI) occurrences were the lowest in the exposed group (SIR, 0.73; 95% CI, 0.10 to 5.21; 0.00 for GI), while the two control groups (control 1: external, control 2: internal) showed slight increases in their SIR values (SIR, 1.18 and 1.27 for all cancers; 1.62 and 1.46 for GI). All lacked statistical significance. All-cause mortality levels for the three groups showed the same pattern (SMR 0.37, 1.29, and 1.11). Conclusions: This study did not refute a finding of non-association with a 13-year follow-up. Considering that many outbreak surveys are associated with a small sample size and a cross-sectional design, follow-up studies that utilize data linkage should become standard procedure.

• Asian Pacific Journal of Cancer Prevention
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• v.15 no.2
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• pp.867-870
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• 2014

Purpose: This study used receiver operating characteristic curve to analyze Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results (SEER) ependymoma data to identify predictive models and potential disparity in outcome. Materials and Methods: This study analyzed socio-economic, staging and treatment factors available in the SEER database for ependymoma. For the risk modeling, each factor was fitted by a Generalized Linear Model to predict the outcome ('brain and other nervous systems' specific death in yes/no). The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC) was computed. Similar strata were combined to construct the most parsimonious models. A random sampling algorithm was used to estimate the modeling errors. Risk of ependymoma death was computed for the predictors for comparison. Results: A total of 3,500 patients diagnosed from 1973 to 2009 were included in this study. The mean follow up time (S.D.) was 79.8 (82.3) months. Some 46% of the patients were female. The mean (S.D.) age was 34.4 (22.8) years. Age was the most predictive factor of outcome. Unknown grade demonstrated a 15% risk of cause specific death compared to 9% for grades I and II, and 36% for grades III and IV. A 5-tiered grade model (with a ROC area 0.48) was optimized to a 3-tiered model (with ROC area of 0.53). This ROC area tied for the second with that for surgery. African-American patients had 21.5% risk of death compared with 16.6% for the others. Some 72.7% of patient who did not get RT had cerebellar or spinal ependymoma. Patients undergoing surgery had 16.3% risk of death, as compared to 23.7% among those who did not have surgery. Conclusion: Grading ependymoma may dramatically improve modeling of data. RT is under used for cerebellum and spinal cord ependymoma and it may be a potential way to improve outcome.