• Title/Summary/Keyword: death probability

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부탄 캔 파열로 인한 화구의 피해에 관한 연구 (A Study on the Damage of Fireball by the Butane-Can Explosion)

  • 임사환;허용정
    • 한국안전학회지
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    • 제22권4호
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    • pp.110-116
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    • 2007
  • 지구상에 역사가 시작된 이후로 에너지, 경제, 환경 등 3E 문제가 존재해 왔다. 특히, 산업사회의 발전과 더불어 인간의 삶에 대한 욕구도 날로 급속하게 변하고 있다. 주40 시간제가 시행되면서 야외활동을 즐기는 사람들이 많아지고 있다. 가스에 의한 사고도 토요일과 일요일에 가장 많이 발생하고 있다. 따라서 본 논문에서는 부탄 캔의 파열에 따른 화염의 영향으로 인간에게 미치는 영향을 알아보고자 한다. 이를 위하여 API에서 규정한 피해예측을 통하여 평가를 실시하였다. 폭발장소에서의 화염에 의해 미치는 영향 거리를 산출하여 거리별 복사열의 크기를 알게 되면 그 지점에서의 피해는 간단하게 예측할 수 있다. 또한 폭발장소 주변에 위치한 인간에게 미치는 영향을 PROBIT 모델에 적용하여 사고피해예측을 평가하였다. 프로빗 분석에 의하면 화염에서 50cm 이격된 곳은 1도 화상에 의한 손상확률이 97%, 2도 화상에 의한 손상확률은 8%, 화재로 인한 사망확률은 4%로 나타났다.

공간 예측 모델을 이용한 산사태 재해의 인명 위험평가 (Life Risk Assessment of Landslide Disaster Using Spatial Prediction Model)

  • 장동호
    • 환경영향평가
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    • 제15권6호
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    • pp.373-383
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    • 2006
  • The spatial mapping of risk is very useful data in planning for disaster preparedness. This research presents a methodology for making the landslide life risk map in the Boeun area which had considerable landslide damage following heavy rain in August, 1998. We have developed a three-stage procedure in spatial data analysis not only to estimate the probability of the occurrence of the natural hazardous events but also to evaluate the uncertainty of the estimators of that probability. The three-stage procedure consists of: (i)construction of a hazard prediction map of "future" hazardous events; (ii) validation of prediction results and estimation of the probability of occurrence for each predicted hazard level; and (iii) generation of risk maps with the introduction of human life factors representing assumed or established vulnerability levels by combining the prediction map in the first stage and the estimated probabilities in the second stage with human life data. The significance of the landslide susceptibility map was evaluated by computing a prediction rate curve. It is used that the Bayesian prediction model and the case study results (the landslide susceptibility map and prediction rate curve) can be prepared for prevention of future landslide life risk map. Data from the Bayesian model-based landslide susceptibility map and prediction ratio curves were used together with human rife data to draft future landslide life risk maps. Results reveal that individual pixels had low risks, but the total risk death toll was estimated at 3.14 people. In particular, the dangerous areas involving an estimated 1/100 people were shown to have the highest risk among all research-target areas. Three people were killed in this area when landslides occurred in 1998. Thus, this risk map can deliver factual damage situation prediction to policy decision-makers, and subsequently can be used as useful data in preventing disasters. In particular, drafting of maps on landslide risk in various steps will enable one to forecast the occurrence of disasters.

LPG충전소에서 증기운폭발에 의한 화염의 피해에 관한 연구 (A Study on the Damage of Flame caused by the Vapor Cloud Explosion in LPG Filling Station)

  • 임사환;허용정
    • 한국안전학회지
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    • 제25권3호
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    • pp.53-60
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    • 2010
  • 액화석유가스 자동차는 대도시의 대기환경 개선을 위해 적용되고 있으며 대기 오염물질을 저감시키는데 효과적인 것으로 입증되고 있다. 이와 더불어 환경 친화적인 에너지원으로서 가스의 수요가 날로 급증하고 있으며, LPG 충전소도 해마다 증가추세이다. 따라서 본 논문에서는 충전소에서 증기운폭발에 의한 화염의 영향으로 인간에게 미치는 영향을 알아보고자 한다. 이를 위하여 API에서 규정한 피해예측을 통하여 평가를 실시하였다. 폭발장소에서의 화염에 의해 미치는 영향 거리를 산출하여 거리별 복사열의 크기를 알게 되면 그 지점에서의 피해는 간단하게 예측할 수 있다. 또한 폭발장소 주변에 위치한 인간에게 미치는 영향을 PROBIT 모델에 적용하여 사고피해예측을 평가하였다. 프로빗 분석에 의하면 화염에서 30m 이격된 곳은 1도 화상에 의한 손상확률이 100%, 2도 화상에 의한 손상확률은 99.2%, 화재로 인한 사망확률은 93.4%로 나타났다.

Inhibitory Modulation of 5-Hydroxytryptamine on Corticostriatal Synaptic Transmission in Rat Brain Slice

  • Choi, Se-Joon;Chung, Won-Soon;Kim, Ki-Jung;Sung, Ki-Wug
    • The Korean Journal of Physiology and Pharmacology
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    • 제7권6호
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    • pp.295-301
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    • 2003
  • Striatum plays a crucial role in the movement control and habitual learning. It receives an information from wide area of cerebral cortex as well as an extensive serotonergic (5-hydroxytryptamine, 5-HT) input from raphe nuclei. In the present study, the effects of 5-HT to modulate synaptic transmission were studied in the rat corticostriatal brain slice using in vitro extracellular recording technique. Synaptic responses were evoked by stimulation of cortical glutamatergic inputs on the corpus callosum and recorded in the dorsal striatum. 5-HT reversibly inhibited coticostriatal glutamatergic synaptic transmission in a dose-dependent fashion (5, 10, 50, and $10{\mu}M$), maximally reducing in the corticostriatal population spike (PS) amplitude to $40.1{\pm}5.0$% at a concentration of $50{\mu}M$ 5-HT. PSs mediated by non-NMDA glutamate receptors, which were isolated by bath application of the NMDA receptor antagonist, d,l-2-amino-5-phospohonovaleric acid (AP-V), were decreased by application of $50{\mu}M$ 5-HT. However, PSs mediated by NMDA receptors, that were activated by application of zero $Mg^{2+}$ aCSF, were not significantly affected by $50{\mu}M$ 5-HT. To test whether the corticostriatal synaptic inhibitions by 5-HT might involve a change in the probability of neurotransmitter release from presynaptic nerve terminals, we measured the paired-pulse ratio (PPR) evoked by 2 identical pulses (50 ms interpulse interval), and found that PPR was increased ($33.4{\pm}5.2$%) by 5-HT, reflecting decreased neurotransmitter releasing probability. These results suggest that 5-HT may decrease neurotransmitter release probability of glutamatergic corticostriatal synapse and may be able to selectively decrease non-NMDA glutamate receptor-mediated synaptic transmission.

중증외상환자에서 TRISS를 활용한 예방가능 중증외상사망률 지표: PARK Index (PARK Index for Preventable Major Trauma Death Rate)

  • 박찬용;유병철;김호현;황정주;이정남;조현민;박한나
    • Journal of Trauma and Injury
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    • 제28권3호
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    • pp.115-122
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    • 2015
  • Purpose: To calculate Preventable Trauma Death Rate (PTDR), Trauma and Injury Severity Score (TRISS) is the most utilized evaluation index of the trauma centers in South Korea. However, this method may have greater variation due to the small number of the denominator in each trauma center. Therefore, we would like to develop new indicators that can be used easily on quality improvement activities by increasing the denominator. Methods: The medical records of 1005 major trauma (ISS >15) patients who visited 2 regional trauma center (A center and B center) in 2014 were analyzed retrospectively. PTDR and PARK Index (Preventable Major Trauma Death Rate, PMTDR) were calculated in 731 patients with inclusion criteria. We invented PARK Index to minimize the variation of preventability of trauma death. In PTDR the denominator is all number of deaths, and in PARK Index the denominator is number of all patients who have survival probability (Ps) larger than 0.25. Numerator is the number of deaths from patients who have Ps larger than 0.25. Results: The size of denominator was 40 in A center, 49 in B center, and overall 89 in PTDR. The size of denominator was significantly increased, and 287 (7.2-fold) in A center, 422 (8.6-fold) in B center, and overall 709 (8.0-fold) in PARK Index. PARK Index was 12.9% in A center, 8.3% in B center, and overall 10.2%. Conclusion: PARK Index is calculated as a rate of mortality from all major trauma patients who have Ps larger than 0.25. PARK Index obtain an effect that denominator is increased 8.0-fold than PTDR. Therefore PARK Index is able to compensate for greater disadvantage of PTDR. PARK Index is expected to be helpful in implementing evaluation of mortality outcome and to be a new index that can be applied to a trauma center quality improvement activity.

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과로로 인한 업무상 질병의 산재보상 인정기준에 관한 연구 (A Study on the Clauses of the Work-Related Disease due to Overwork in the Workmen's Compensation Law)

  • 김은희
    • 한국직업건강간호학회지
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    • 제6권1호
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    • pp.23-43
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    • 1997
  • The work-related diseases due to continuous overwork are mainly cerebro- and cardio-vascular ones, which is commonly called 'Karoshi', death from overwork. Many factors are capable for Karoshi : occupational stress in relation to technological renovation and industrial rationalization, competitive social structure, and accumulated fatigue accured to long time or irregular working. And its occurence is on the rise. The World Labor Report 1993 released by ILO, pointed out the diseases related to overwork and stress as one of the most important occupational health problem. In Korea, social awareness of Karoshi is at an infant stage, and reliable statistics for its occurence are not compiled in a convenient manner. Despite the rising Karoshi, there are no reliable clauses in workmen's compensation enough to settle down the disputes. Therefore, it is not uncommon that the Labour Ministry and Civil Court find difficulties in reaching an agreement. This study was intended to provide proper compensation and prevention program for workers by suggesting reasonable compensation clauses for the death from overwork. This study consists of two comparative reviews on the compensaton clauses for the death from overwork. One is to review legal standards of Karoshi among three countries, such as Korea, Japan and Taiwan. The other is to investigate the cases of Karoshi in Korea, 121 cases identified at the Labor Welfare Corperation and the Labour Ministrial process of examination and reexamination, and 73 leading cases at the High Court of Justice. The main findings of the study are as follows : 1. Comparisons of comperative review on compensation clauses for the death from overwork among three countries. 1) All of three countries have the same kinds of disease for compensation, which were cerebro-and cardiao-vascular diseases, while for cardiac disease group, Korea has the smaller number of diseases for compensation than Japan. 2) As for the definition of overwork, the three countries share equally that overload for one week prior to collapse is considered as an important factor, but accumulated chronic fatigue is disregarded. 3) As the basis of overwork, in Japan, there is a tendency to move from the conditions of an ordinary healthy adult to those of the individual concerned in Japan, whereas there is no such concern yet in Korea. 4) All the three countries use a common standard of medical judgement in demonstrating causal relationship between a job and a disease. However, Korea is progressive in the sense that in the case of CVA at worksite, the worker himself has no obligation to prove the cause. 2. The results of a comparative review on excutive decisions by Labor Ministry and judicial decisions by the Court in Korea : A judicial decision is based on the legalistic probability, but a excutive decision is not. Therefore, excutive decisions have such restrictions that : 1) TIA (transitory ischemic cerebral attack) and myocarditis are excluded from compensation, and there is little consistency of decision in the case of cause-unknown death. 2) There is a tendency not to compensate for the death from overwork since the work terms such as repeated long-time working, shift work or night-shift work are not considered as overloading. 3) There is a tendency to regard the conditions of a ordinary healthy adult rather than those of the individual concerned(age, existing diseases, health state, etc.) as the comparative basis of overload. 4) There remains a tendency not to compensate for the death from overwork in the case of collapse occuring out of workplace, on the ground of 'on the course of working' and 'in the cause of accident'. Through the study, the fact manifests itself that Korea's compensation clauses for work-related diseases due to overwork are very restrictive. So, it is necessary to extend the Labor Ministry's clauses of compensation for the death from overwork following to the recent changes of other countries and internal judicial decisions. This is very important in the perspective of occupational health that aims at health promotion of workers including prevention of the Karoshi.

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Artifical Neural Network for In-Vitro Thrombosis Detection of Mechanical Valve

  • Lee, Hyuk-Soo;Lee, Sang-Hoon
    • 한국지능시스템학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 한국퍼지및지능시스템학회 1998년도 The Third Asian Fuzzy Systems Symposium
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    • pp.762-766
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    • 1998
  • Mechanical valve is one of the most widely used implantable artificial organs, Since its failure (mechanical failures and thrombosis to name two representative example) means the death of patient, its reliability is very important and early noninvasive detection is essential requirement . This paper will explain the method to detect the thrombosis formation by spectral analysis and neural network. In order quantitatively to distinguish peak of a normal valve from that of a thrombotic valve, a 3 layer backpropagation neural network, which contains 7,000 input nodes, 20 hidden layer and 1output , was employed. The trained neural network can distinguish normal and thrombotic valve with a probability that is higher than 90% . In conclusion, the acoustical spectrum analysis coupled with a neural network algorithm lent itself to the noninvasive monitoring of implanted mechanical valves. This method will be applied to be applied to the performance evaluation of other implantable rtificial organs.

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환자 우선순위를 고려한 수술실 예약 : 이진검색을 활용한 수정 평가치반복법 (Operating Room Reservation Problem Considering Patient Priority : Modified Value Iteration Method with Binary Search)

  • 민대기
    • 산업공학
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    • 제24권4호
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    • pp.274-280
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    • 2011
  • Delayed access to surgery may lead to deterioration in the patient condition, poor clinical outcomes, increase in the probability of emergency admission, or even death. The purpose of this work is to decide the number of patients selected from a waiting list and to schedule them in accordance with the operating room capacity in the next period. We formulate the problem as an infinite horizon Markov Decision Process (MDP), which attempts to strike a balance between the patient waiting times and overtime works. Structural properties of the proposed model are investigated to facilitate the solution procedure. The proposed procedure modifies the conventional value iteration method along with the binary search technique. An example of the optimal policy is provided, and computational results are given to show that the proposed procedure improves computational efficiency.

구매종속성이 존재하는 상황에서 주문충족율을 계산하는 근사법에 관한 연구 (Approximate Approach to Calculating the Order Fill Rate under Purchase Dependence)

  • 박창규;서준용
    • 한국경영과학회지
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    • 제41권2호
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    • pp.35-51
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    • 2016
  • This paper proposes a new approximate approach to calculate the order fill rate and the probability of filling an entire customer order immediately from the shelf in a business environment under purchase dependence characterized by customer purchase patterns observed in such areas as marketing, manufacturing systems, and distribution systems. The new approximate approach divides customer orders into item orders and calculates fill rates of all order types to approximate the order fill rate. We develop a greed iterative search algorithm (GISA) based on the Gauss-Seidel method to avoid dimensionality and prevent the solution divergence for larger instances. Through the computational analysis that compares the GISA with the simulation, we demonstrate that the GISA is a dependable algorithm for deriving the stationary joint distribution of on-hand inventories in the type-K pure system. We also present some managerial insights.

Anti-lice activity of Citrullus colocynthis fruits against Pediculus humanus capitis in vitro

  • Saad Aziz Anah
    • 대한수의학회지
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    • 제63권3호
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    • pp.22.1-22.4
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    • 2023
  • The increasing resistance of head lice Pediculus humanus capitis to many drugs has highlighted the need for new alternatives to control head lice in adults. The effect of two types of extracts (aqueous and alcoholic) of Citrullus colocynthis fruit on adult lice was tested in vitro. The results showed that the alcoholic extract with a concentration of 20% showed similar efficacy in killing adult lice to that of Natroba 9% w/w, with values ranging between 87% to 98% within 18 minutes, followed by a 20% aqueous extract with a 44% to 79% death rate. A 10% concentration of both types of extracts had moderate lethality for lice, while a 5% concentration did not show strong lethality for adult lice. These results revealed significant differences between the control group and those treated with alcoholic and aqueous extract concentrations of C. colocynthis fruits at the probability level p ≤ 0.05.