• Title/Summary/Keyword: data-driven model

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A Study on the Data Driven Neural Network Model for the Prediction of Time Series Data: Application of Water Surface Elevation Forecasting in Hangang River Bridge (시계열 자료의 예측을 위한 자료 기반 신경망 모델에 관한 연구: 한강대교 수위예측 적용)

  • Yoo, Hyungju;Lee, Seung Oh;Choi, Seohye;Park, Moonhyung
    • Journal of Korean Society of Disaster and Security
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    • v.12 no.2
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    • pp.73-82
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    • 2019
  • Recently, as the occurrence frequency of sudden floods due to climate change increased, the flood damage on riverside social infrastructures was extended so that there has been a threat of overflow. Therefore, a rapid prediction of potential flooding in riverside social infrastructure is necessary for administrators. However, most current flood forecasting models including hydraulic model have limitations which are the high accuracy of numerical results but longer simulation time. To alleviate such limitation, data driven models using artificial neural network have been widely used. However, there is a limitation that the existing models can not consider the time-series parameters. In this study the water surface elevation of the Hangang River bridge was predicted using the NARX model considering the time-series parameter. And the results of the ANN and RNN models are compared with the NARX model to determine the suitability of NARX model. Using the 10-year hydrological data from 2009 to 2018, 70% of the hydrological data were used for learning and 15% was used for testing and evaluation respectively. As a result of predicting the water surface elevation after 3 hours from the Hangang River bridge in 2018, the ANN, RNN and NARX models for RMSE were 0.20 m, 0.11 m, and 0.09 m, respectively, and 0.12 m, 0.06 m, and 0.05 m for MAE, and 1.56 m, 0.55 m and 0.10 m for peak errors respectively. By analyzing the error of the prediction results considering the time-series parameters, the NARX model is most suitable for predicting water surface elevation. This is because the NARX model can learn the trend of the time series data and also can derive the accurate prediction value even in the high water surface elevation prediction by using the hyperbolic tangent and Rectified Linear Unit function as an activation function. However, the NARX model has a limit to generate a vanishing gradient as the sequence length becomes longer. In the future, the accuracy of the water surface elevation prediction will be examined by using the LSTM model.

The Effect of Individual Characteristics and Economic Environment on Entrepreneurship (개인의 계획된 행위와 국가경제환경이 기업가정신에 미치는 영향 분석: OECD국가를 대상으로)

  • Han, Sangyun
    • Asia-Pacific Journal of Business Venturing and Entrepreneurship
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    • v.11 no.4
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    • pp.149-165
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    • 2016
  • The objectives of this study is to assess the influence of individual characteristics and economic environment on the entrepreneurship such as entrepreneurial Intention and behavior based on the theory of Planned behaviors. This study used a country-level merged data set composed of GEM(Global Entrepreneurship Monitor) data and the OECD Statistics data. And this used the fixed effect model to analyze the panel data of 31 OECD countries during the period from 2005 to 2014. Our findings show that subjective norm has a significantly positive effect on entrepreneurial intention. In individual characteristics, the perceived opportunities has a significantly positive effect on early-stage entrepreneurial activity(TEA) and improvement-driven opportunity entrepreneurial activity. We identify the differences of between necessity-driven and improvement-driven opportunity entrepreneurial activity. For example, the effect on necessity-driven entrepreneurial activity is significantly negative. We also find the differences of between necessity-driven and improvement-driven opportunity entrepreneurial activity in economic environment variables. While real GDP growth as a demand variable has a significantly positive effect on necessity-driven entrepreneurial activity, unemployment rate as a supply variable has a significantly negative effect on early-stage entrepreneurial activity(TEA) and improvement-driven opportunity entrepreneurial activity. And GDP per capita as a supply variable has a significantly positive effect on early-stage entrepreneurial activity(TEA) and improvement-driven opportunity entrepreneurial activity. But the effect on necessity-driven entrepreneurial activity is significantly negative. We provide an interpretation of these empirical findings, emphasizing the importance of considering individual characteristics and economic environment simultaneously in promoting entrepreneurship.

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Uncertainty assessment caused by GCMs selection on hydrologic studies

  • Ghafouri-Azar, Mona;Bae, Deg-Hyo
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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    • 2018.05a
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    • pp.151-151
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    • 2018
  • The present study is aimed to quantifying the uncertainty in the general circulation model (GCM) selection and its impacts on hydrology studies in the basins. For this reason, 13 GCMs was selected among the 26 GCM models of the Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) scenarios. Then, the climate data and hydrologic data with two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) of the best model (INMCM4) and worst model (HadGEM2-AO) were compared to understand the uncertainty associated with GCM models. In order to project the runoff, the Precipitation-Runoff Modelling System (PRMS) was driven to simulate daily river discharge by using daily precipitation, maximum and minimum temperature as inputs of this model. For simulating the discharge, the model has been calibrated and validated for daily data. Root mean square error (RMSE) and Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE) were applied as evaluation criteria. Then parameters of the model were applied for the periods 2011-2040, and 2070-2099 to project the future discharge the five large basins of South Korea. Then, uncertainty caused by projected temperature, precipitation and runoff changes were compared in seasonal and annual time scale for two future periods and RCPs compared to the reference period (1976-2005). The findings of this study indicated that more caution will be needed for selecting the GCMs and using the results of the climate change analysis.

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Development of Dam Inflow Simulation Method Based on Bayesian Autoregressive Exogenous Stochastic Volatility (ARXSV) model

  • Fabian, Pamela Sofia;Kim, Ho-Jun;Kim, Ki-Chul;Kwon, Hyun-Han
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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    • 2022.05a
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    • pp.437-437
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    • 2022
  • The prediction of dam inflow rate is crucial for the management of the largest multi-purpose dam in South Korea, the Soyang Dam. The main issue associated with the management of water resources is the stochastic nature of the reservoir inflow leading to an increase in uncertainty associated with the inflow prediction. The Autoregressive (AR) model is commonly used to provide the simulation and forecast of hydrometeorological data. However, because its estimation is based solely on the time-series data, it has the disadvantage of being unable to account for external variables such as climate information. This study proposes the use of the Autoregressive Exogenous Stochastic Volatility (ARXSV) model within a Bayesian modeling framework for increased predictability of the monthly dam inflow by addressing the exogenous and stochastic factors. This study analyzes 45 years of hydrological input data of the Soyang Dam from the year 1974 to 2019. The result of this study will be beneficial to strengthen the potential use of data-driven models for accurate inflow predictions and better reservoir management.

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An Empirical Study on Continuous Use Intention and Switching Intention of the Smart Factory (스마트 팩토리의 지속사용의도와 전환의도에 관한 실증연구)

  • Kim, Hyun-gyu
    • Journal of Korea Society of Industrial Information Systems
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    • v.24 no.2
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    • pp.65-80
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    • 2019
  • With the advent of the ICT-based 4th industrial revolution, the convergence of the manufacturing industry and ICT seems to be the new breakthrough for achieving the company's competitiveness and play a role on the key element for accelerating the revival of the manufacturing industry. When the smart factory is implemented, each plant can analyze the quantity of data collected, build the data-driven operation systems which can make decisions, and ultimately discover the correlation among many events in the manufacturing sites. As the customers' needs become diversified more and more, it is required for the company to change its operating method from large quantity batch production systems to customizable and flexible manufacturing systems. For performing this requirements, it is essential for the company to adopt the smart factory. Based on technology acceptance model (TAM), this study investigates the factors influencing continuous use intention and switching intention of the smart factory. To do so, a questionnaire survey is conducted both online and offline. 122 samples are used for the study analysis. The results of this study will provide many implications with many researchers and practitioners relevant smart factories.

A Study on Energy Platform Using Data in the US: Based on Opening Platform Model

  • Song, Minzheong
    • International journal of advanced smart convergence
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    • v.10 no.3
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    • pp.41-50
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    • 2021
  • The purpose of this study is to analyze various energy platforms using data in the US and to suggest directions and implications. Some of the leading energy platforms are selected and analyzed based on the opening platform model. We focus on the case analysis of the US utility companies. In case of the horizontal open platform, Green Button sponsor's 'Connect My Data (CMD)' driven by the government invites the utility companies to jointly develop the sponsor's data solution. In case of the vertical open platform, the certification program 'Share My Data (SMD)' allows backward compatibility, because the technical improvement is minimal. The utility companies benchmark Amazon's three-sided market mediation and prefer platform and category exclusivity. For the former, they have data analytics companies like Enervee, Opower and for the latter, they have electronics manufactures and energy service providers (ESPs) like Distributed Energy Resources (DERs). Based on this US case study, we suggest the energy platforms to open their platform for renewable energy supply, energy conservation, high-efficiency products, and residential DER dissemination. To successfully implement the government's energy transition policy, the US platforms should be benchmarked as a business model. Especially, it is needed for them to coordinate a platform ecosystem. To ensure trust in the products and services offered on the marketplace platform, platform's certification program is helpful.

Vacant House Prediction and Important Features Exploration through Artificial Intelligence: In Case of Gunsan (인공지능 기반 빈집 추정 및 주요 특성 분석)

  • Lim, Gyoo Gun;Noh, Jong Hwa;Lee, Hyun Tae;Ahn, Jae Ik
    • Journal of Information Technology Services
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    • v.21 no.3
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    • pp.63-72
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    • 2022
  • The extinction crisis of local cities, caused by a population density increase phenomenon in capital regions, directly causes the increase of vacant houses in local cities. According to population and housing census, Gunsan-si has continuously shown increasing trend of vacant houses during 2015 to 2019. In particular, since Gunsan-si is the city which suffers from doughnut effect and industrial decline, problems regrading to vacant house seems to exacerbate. This study aims to provide a foundation of a system which can predict and deal with the building that has high risk of becoming vacant house through implementing a data driven vacant house prediction machine learning model. Methodologically, this study analyzes three types of machine learning model by differing the data components. First model is trained based on building register, individual declared land value, house price and socioeconomic data and second model is trained with the same data as first model but with additional POI(Point of Interest) data. Finally, third model is trained with same data as the second model but with excluding water usage and electricity usage data. As a result, second model shows the best performance based on F1-score. Random Forest, Gradient Boosting Machine, XGBoost and LightGBM which are tree ensemble series, show the best performance as a whole. Additionally, the complexity of the model can be reduced through eliminating independent variables that have correlation coefficient between the variables and vacant house status lower than the 0.1 based on absolute value. Finally, this study suggests XGBoost and LightGBM based machine learning model, which can handle missing values, as final vacant house prediction model.

A Multi-Model Based Noisy Speech Recognition Using the Model Compensation Method (다 모델 방식과 모델보상을 통한 잡음환경 음성인식)

  • Chung, Young-Joo;Kwak, Seung-Woo
    • MALSORI
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    • no.62
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    • pp.97-112
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    • 2007
  • The speech recognizer in general operates in noisy acoustical environments. Many research works have been done to cope with the acoustical variations. Among them, the multiple-HMM model approach seems to be quite effective compared with the conventional methods. In this paper, we consider a multiple-model approach combined with the model compensation method and investigate the necessary number of the HMM model sets through noisy speech recognition experiments. By using the data-driven Jacobian adaptation for the model compensation, the multiple-model approach with only a few model sets for each noise type could achieve comparable results with the re-training method.

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Three-dimensional finite element analysis of buccally cantilevered implant-supported prostheses in a severely resorbed mandible

  • Alom, Ghaith;Kwon, Ho-Beom;Lim, Young-Jun;Kim, Myung-Joo
    • The Journal of Advanced Prosthodontics
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    • v.13 no.1
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    • pp.12-23
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    • 2021
  • Purpose. The aim of the study was to compare the lingualized implant placement creating a buccal cantilever with prosthetic-driven implant placement exhibiting excessive crown-to-implant ratio. Materials and Methods. Based on patient's CT scan data, two finite element models were created. Both models were composed of the severely resorbed posterior mandible with first premolar and second molar and missing second premolar and first molar, a two-unit prosthesis supported by two implants. The differences were in implants position and crown-to-implant ratio; lingualized implants creating lingually overcontoured prosthesis (Model CP2) and prosthetic-driven implants creating an excessive crown-to-implant ratio (Model PD2). A screw preload of 466.4 N and a buccal occlusal load of 262 N were applied. The contacts between the implant components were set to a frictional contact with a friction coefficient of 0.3. The maximum von Mises stress and strain and maximum equivalent plastic strain were analyzed and compared, as well as volumes of the materials under specified stress and strain ranges. Results. The results revealed that the highest maximum von Mises stress in each model was 1091 MPa for CP2 and 1085 MPa for PD2. In the cortical bone, CP2 showed a lower peak stress and a similar peak strain. Besides, volume calculation confirmed that CP2 presented lower volumes undergoing stress and strain. The stresses in implant components were slightly lower in value in PD2. However, CP2 exhibited a noticeably higher plastic strain. CONCLUSION. Prosthetic-driven implant placement might biomechanically be more advantageous than bone quantity-based implant placement that creates a buccal cantilever.

Energy Efficient Clustering Algorithm for Surveillance and Reconnaissance Applications in Wireless Sensor Networks (무선 센서 네트워크에서 에너지 효율적인 감시·정찰 응용의 클러스터링 알고리즘 연구)

  • Kong, Joon-Ik;Lee, Jae-Ho;Kang, Jiheon;Eom, Doo-Seop
    • The Journal of Korean Institute of Communications and Information Sciences
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    • v.37C no.11
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    • pp.1170-1181
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    • 2012
  • Wireless Sensor Networks(WSNs) are used in diverse applications. In general, sensor nodes that are easily deployed on specific areas have many resource constrains such as battery power, memory sizes, MCUs, RFs and so on. Hence, first of all, the efficient energy consumption is strongly required in WSNs. In terms of event states, event-driven deliverly model (i.e. surveillance and reconnaissance applications) has several characteristics. On the basis of such a model, clustering algorithms can be mostly used to manage sensor nodes' energy efficiently owing to the advantages of data aggregations. Since a specific node collects packets from its child nodes in a network topology and aggregates them into one packet to relay them once, amount of transmitted packets to a sink node can be reduced. However, most clustering algorithms have been designed without considering can be reduced. However, most clustering algorithms have been designed without considering characteristics of event-driven deliverly model, which results in some problems. In this paper, we propose enhanced clustering algorithms regarding with both targets' movement and energy efficiency in order for applications of surveillance and reconnaissance. These algorithms form some clusters to contend locally between nodes, which have already detected certain targets, by using a method which called CHEW (Cluster Head Election Window). Therefore, our proposed algorithms enable to reduce not only the cost of cluster maintenance, but also energy consumption. In conclusion, we analyze traces of the clusters' movements according to targets' locations, evaluate the traces' results and we compare our algorithms with others through simulations. Finally, we verify our algorithms use power energy efficiently.