• Structural Engineering and Mechanics
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• v.89 no.6
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• pp.579-588
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• 2024

The present paper investigates the curvature ductility of confined reinforced concrete (RC) beams with normal (NSC) and high strength concrete (HSC). For the purpose of predicting the curvature ductility factor, an analytical model was developed based on the equilibrium of internal forces of confined concrete and reinforcement. In this context, the curvatures were calculated at first yielding of tension reinforcement and at ultimate when the confined concrete strain reaches the ultimate value. To best simulate the situation of confined RC beams in flexure, a modified version of an ancient confined concrete model was adopted for this study. In order to show the accuracy of the proposed model, an experimental database was collected from the literature. The statistical comparison between experimental and predicted results showed that the proposed model has a good performance. Then, the data generated from the validated theoretical model were used to train the artificial neural network (ANN) prediction model. The R² values for theoretical and experimental results are equal to 0.98 and 0.95, respectively which proves the high performance of the ANN model. Finally, a parametric study was implemented to analyze the effect of different parameters on the curvature ductility factor using theoretical and ANN models. The results are similar to those extracted from experiments, where the concrete strength, the compression reinforcement ratio, the yield strength, and the volumetric ratio of transverse reinforcement have a positive effect. In contrast, the ratio and the yield strength of tension reinforcement have a negative effect.

• Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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• v.28 no.1
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• pp.263-286
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• 2022

This study acquires NBA statistical information for a total of 32 years from 1990 to 2022 using web crawling, observes variables of interest through exploratory data analysis, and generates related derived variables. Unused variables were removed through a purification process on the input data, and correlation analysis, t-test, and ANOVA were performed on the remaining variables. For the variable of interest, the difference in the mean between the groups that advanced to the playoffs and did not advance to the playoffs was tested, and then to compensate for this, the average difference between the three groups (higher/middle/lower) based on ranking was reconfirmed. Of the input data, only this year's season data was used as a test set, and 5-fold cross-validation was performed by dividing the training set and the validation set for model training. The overfitting problem was solved by comparing the cross-validation result and the final analysis result using the test set to confirm that there was no difference in the performance matrix. Because the quality level of the raw data is high and the statistical assumptions are satisfied, most of the models showed good results despite the small data set. This study not only predicts NBA game results or classifies whether or not to advance to the playoffs using machine learning, but also examines whether the variables of interest are included in the major variables with high importance by understanding the importance of input attribute. Through the visualization of SHAP value, it was possible to overcome the limitation that could not be interpreted only with the result of feature importance, and to compensate for the lack of consistency in the importance calculation in the process of entering/removing variables. It was found that a number of variables related to three points and errors classified as subjects of interest in this study were included in the major variables affecting advancing to the playoffs in the NBA. Although this study is similar in that it includes topics such as match results, playoffs, and championship predictions, which have been dealt with in the existing sports data analysis field, and comparatively analyzed several machine learning models for analysis, there is a difference in that the interest features are set in advance and statistically verified, so that it is compared with the machine learning analysis result. Also, it was differentiated from existing studies by presenting explanatory visualization results using SHAP, one of the XAI models.

• KDI Journal of Economic Policy
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• v.14 no.1
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• pp.121-145
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• 1992

This paper examines characteristics of time series data related to the construction investment(stationarity and time series components such as secular trend, cyclical fluctuation, seasonal variation, and random change) and surveys predictibility, fitness, and explicability of independent variables of various models to build a short-term construction investment forecasting model suitable for current economic circumstances. Unit root test, autocorrelation coefficient and spectral density function analysis show that related time series data do not have unit roots, fluctuate cyclically, and are largely explicated by lagged variables. Moreover it is very important for the short-term construction investment forecasting to grasp time lag relation between construction investment series and leading indicators such as building construction permits and value of construction orders received. In chapter 3, we explicate 7 forecasting models; Univariate time series model (ARIMA and multiplicative linear trend model), multivariate time series model using leading indicators (1st order autoregressive model, vector autoregressive model and error correction model) and multivariate time series model using National Accounts data (simple reduced form model disconnected from simultaneous macroeconomic model and VAR model). These models are examined by 4 statistical tools that are average absolute error, root mean square error, adjusted coefficient of determination, and Durbin-Watson statistic. This analysis proves two facts. First, multivariate models are more suitable than univariate models in the point that forecasting error of multivariate models tend to decrease in contrast to the case of latter. Second, VAR model is superior than any other multivariate models; average absolute prediction error and root mean square error of VAR model are quitely low and adjusted coefficient of determination is higher. This conclusion is reasonable when we consider current construction investment has sustained overheating growth more than secular trend.

• The Journal of Korea Institute of Information, Electronics, and Communication Technology
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• v.10 no.4
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• pp.295-303
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• 2017

In this paper, we analyze the trends of the international shipping market and the domestic and foreign factors of the crisis of the domestic shipping market, and identify the characteristics of the recovery of the Busan New Port trade volume which has decreased since the crisis of the domestic shipping market We quantitatively analyzed the future volume of Busan New Port and analyzed the trends of the prediction and recovery trends. As a result of analyzing Busan New Port container cargo volume by using big data analysis tool R, the variation of Busan New Cargo container cargo volume was estimated by ARIMA model (1,0,1) (1,0,1)[12] Estimation error, AICc and BIC were the most optimal ARIMA models. Therefore, we estimated the estimated value of Busan New Port trade for 36 months by using ARIMA (1, 0, 1)[12], which is the optimal model of Busan New Port trade, and estimated 13,157,184 TEU, 13,418,123 TEU, 13,539,884 TEU, and 4,526,406 TEU, respectively, indicating that it increased by about 2%, 2%, and 1%.

• Korean Journal of Remote Sensing
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• v.33 no.2
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• pp.171-187
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• 2017

Thisstudy presentsthe method for deriving surface visibility from satellite retrieved AOD. To do thisthe height of aerosol distribution isrequired. This distribution would be in thisstudy represented by the two heights; if there is a discrete atmospheric layer, which is physically separated from the above layer, the upper height of the layer is assumed as Aerosol Layer Height(ALH). In this case there is clear minimum in the Relative Humanity vertical distribution. Otherwise PBLH(Planetary Boundary Layer Height) is used. These heights are obtained from the forecast data of Regional Data Assimilation and Prediction System(RDAPS). The surface visibility is estimated from MODIS AOD and ALH/PBLH, using Koschmieder's Law for ALH and the empirical relations for PBLH. The estimated visibility are evaluated from the visibility measurements of 9 eve-measurement stations and 17 PWD22 stations for the spring of 2015 and 2016. Verification of the estimated visibility shows that there are considerable differencesin statistical verification value depending on stations, years, morning(Terra)/afternoon(Aqua). The better results are shown in the midwest part of korean peninsula for Terra of 2016. The results are summarized as; correlation coefficients of higher than 0.65, for low visibility RMSE of 3.62 km and ME of 2.29 km or less, POD of higher than 0.65 and FAR of 0.5 or less. Verification results were better with increase in the number of low-visibility data.

• The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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• v.32 no.5
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• pp.693-702
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• 2019

Deep learning has gained popularity for the classification and prediction task. Neural network layers become deeper as more data becomes available. Saturation is the phenomenon that the gradient of an activation function gets closer to 0 and can happen when the value of weight is too big. Increased importance has been placed on the issue of saturation which limits the ability of weight to learn. To resolve this problem, Glorot and Bengio (Proceedings of the Thirteenth International Conference on Artificial Intelligence and Statistics, 249-256, 2010) claimed that efficient neural network training is possible when data flows variously between layers. They argued that variance over the output of each layer and variance over input of each layer are equal. They proposed a method of initialization that the variance of the output of each layer and the variance of the input should be the same. In this paper, we propose a new method of establishing initialization by adopting truncated normal distribution and truncated cauchy distribution. We decide where to truncate the distribution while adapting the initialization method by Glorot and Bengio (2010). Variances are made over output and input equal that are then accomplished by setting variances equal to the variance of truncated distribution. It manipulates the distribution so that the initial values of weights would not grow so large and with values that simultaneously get close to zero. To compare the performance of our proposed method with existing methods, we conducted experiments on MNIST and CIFAR-10 data using DNN and CNN. Our proposed method outperformed existing methods in terms of accuracy.

• Plant Journal
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• v.10 no.3
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• pp.39-44
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• 2014

The gas turbine thermal efficiency has been predicted when the compressor pressure ratio increases from the previously set 13.5. Thermal efficiency has been predicted from 14.2 up to 18.2 at which the turbine work reaches its maximum value on the assumption that isentropic efficiency of the compressor and the turbine are constant using the operating data at the pressure ratio of 13.5. 35.11% of thermal efficiency has been acquired by the performance test when the pressure ratio increased to 16.2 since replacing the compressor low pressure stages. It's been approved that predicting thermal efficiency using the operating data at the pressure ratio of 13.5 is useful within 7.86% of tolerance as the figure measured by the performance test.

• Radiation Oncology Journal
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• v.7 no.2
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• pp.171-183
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• 1989

A general effect for cell proliferation has been incorporated into Roesch's survival equation (Accumulation Model). From this an isoeffect formula for the low dose-rate regimen is obtained. The prediction for total doses equivalent to 60Gy delivered at the constant dose-rate over 7 days agrees well with the dose-time data of Paterson and of Green, when the parameter ratio A/B (${\approx}{\alpha{\mu}}/2{\beta}\;where\;{\mu}$ is the repair rate) is chosen to be 0.7Gy/h. When a constant proliferation rate and known facts of division delay are assumed, an isoeffect relation between low dose-rate treatment and acute dose-rate treatment can be derived. This formula in the regimens where proliferation is negligible predicts exactly the data of Ellis that 8 fractions of 5 Gy/day for 7 days are equivalent to continuously applied 60Gy over 7days, provided the A/B ratio is 0.7 Gy/h and the $\alpha/\beta$ ratio is 4Gy. Overall agreement between the clinical data and the predictions made by the formula at the above parameter values suggests that the biologcal end points used as the tolerance level in the studies by Paterson, Green, and Ellis all agree and they are not entirely the early effects as generally assumed. The absence of dose-rate effects observed in the mouse KHT sarcoma can better be explained in terms of a large value for the A/B ratio. Similarly, the same total dose used independently of the dose-rate to treat head and neck tumors by Pierquin can be justified.

• Food Science of Animal Resources
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• v.39 no.3
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• pp.371-378
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• 2019

The objective of this study was to develop mathematical models for describing the kinetic behavior of Staphylococcus aureus (S. aureus) in seasoned beef jerky. Seasoned beef jerky was cut into 10-g pieces. Next, 0.1 mL of S. aureus ATCC13565 was inoculated into the samples to obtain 3 Log CFU/g, and the samples were stored aerobically at $10^{\circ}C$, $20^{\circ}C$, $25^{\circ}C$, $30^{\circ}C$, and $35^{\circ}C$ for 600 h. S. aureus cell counts were enumerated on Baird Parker agar during storage. To develop a primary model, the Weibull model was fitted to the cell count data to calculate Delta (required time for the first decimal reduction) and ${\rho}$ (shape of curves). For secondary modeling, a polynomial model was fitted to the Delta values as a function of storage temperature. To evaluate the accuracy of the model prediction, the root mean square error (RMSE) was calculated by comparing the predicted data with the observed data. The surviving S. aureus cell counts were decreased at all storage temperatures. The Delta values were longer at $10^{\circ}C$, $20^{\circ}C$, and $25^{\circ}C$ than at $30^{\circ}C$ and $35^{\circ}C$. The secondary model well-described the temperature effect on Delta with an $R^2$ value of 0.920. In validation analysis, RMSE values of 0.325 suggested that the model performance was appropriate. S. aureus in beef jerky survives for a long period at low storage temperatures and that the model developed in this study is useful for describing the kinetic behavior of S. aureus in seasoned beef jerky.

• Journal of Gastric Cancer
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• v.21 no.4
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• pp.368-378
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• 2021

Purpose: When patients with early gastric cancer (EGC) undergo non-curative endoscopic submucosal dissection requiring gastrectomy (NC-ESD-RG), additional medical resources and expenses are required for surgery. To reduce this burden, predictive model for NC-ESD-RG is required. Materials and Methods: Data from 2,997 patients undergoing ESD for 3,127 forceps biopsy-proven differentiated-type EGCs (2,345 and 782 in training and validation sets, respectively) were reviewed. Using the training set, the logistic stepwise regression analysis determined the independent predictors of NC-ESD-RG (NC-ESD other than cases with lateral resection margin involvement or piecemeal resection as the only non-curative factor). Using these predictors, a risk-scoring system for predicting NC-ESD-RG was developed. Performance of the predictive model was examined internally with the validation set. Results: Rate of NC-ESD-RG was 17.3%. Independent pre-ESD predictors for NC-ESD-RG included moderately differentiated or papillary EGC, large tumor size, proximal tumor location, lesion at greater curvature, elevated or depressed morphology, and presence of ulcers. A risk-score was assigned to each predictor of NC-ESD-RG. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve for predicting NC-ESD-RG was 0.672 in both training and validation sets. A risk-score of 5 points was the optimal cut-off value for predicting NC-ESD-RG, and the overall accuracy was 72.7%. As the total risk score increased, the predicted risk for NC-ESD-RG increased from 3.8% to 72.6%. Conclusions: We developed and validated a risk-scoring system for predicting NC-ESD-RG based on pre-ESD variables. Our risk-scoring system can facilitate informed consent and decision-making for preoperative treatment selection between ESD and surgery in patients with EGC.