• Title/Summary/Keyword: data value prediction

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Evaluation on Climate Change Vulnerability of Korea National Parks (국립공원의 기후변화 취약성 평가)

  • Kim, Chong-Chun;Kim, Tae-Geun
    • Korean Journal of Ecology and Environment
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    • v.49 no.1
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    • pp.42-50
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    • 2016
  • The purpose of this study is to set the direction to manage national parks to cope with climate change, and offer basic data to establish the relevant policies. Towards this end, this study analyzed the current and future climate change vulnerability of national parks using the 24 proxy variables of vulnerability in the LCCGIS program, a tool to evaluate climate change vulnerability developed by the National Institute of Environmental Research. To analyze and evaluate the current status of and future prospect on climate change vulnerability of national parks, the proxy variable value of climate exposure was calculated by making a GIS spatial thematic map with $1km{\times}1km$ grid unit through the application of climate change scenario (RCP8.5). The values of proxy variables of sensitivity and adaptation capability were calculated using the basic statistics of national parks. The values of three vulnerability evaluation items were calculated regarding the present (2010s) and future (2050s). The current values were applied to the future equally under the assumption that the current state of the proxy variables related to sensitivity and adaptation capability without a future prediction scenario continues. Seoraksan, Odaesan, Jirisan and Chiaksan National Parks are relatively bigger in terms of the current (2010s) climate exposure. The national park, where the variation of heat wave is the biggest is Wolchulsan National Park. The biggest variation of drought occurs to Gyeryongsan National Park, and Woraksan National Park has the biggest variation of heavy rain. Concerning the climate change sensitivity of national parks, Jirisan National Park is the most sensitive, and adaptation capability is evaluated to be the highest. Gayasan National Park's sensitivity is the lowest, and Chiaksan National Park is the lowest in adaptation capability. As for climate change vulnerability, Seoraksan, Odaesan, Chiaksan and Deogyusan National Parks and Hallyeohaesang National Park are evaluated as high at the current period. The national parks, where future vulnerability change is projected to be the biggest, are Jirisan, Woraksan, Chiaksan and Sobaeksan National Parks in the order. Because such items evaluating the climate change vulnerability of national parks as climate exposure, sensitivity and adaptation capability show relative differences according to national parks' local climate environment, it will be necessary to devise the adaptation measures reflecting the local climate environmental characteristics of national parks, rather than establishing uniform adaptation measures targeting all national parks. The results of this study that evaluated climate change vulnerability using climate exposure, sensitivity and adaptation capability targeting Korea's national parks are expected to be used as basic data for the establishment of measures to adapt to climate change in consideration of national parks' local climate environmental characteristics. However, this study analyzed using only the proxy variables presented by LCCGIS program under the situation that few studies on the evaluation of climate change vulnerability of national parks are found, and therefore this study may not reflect overall national parks' environment properly. A further study on setting weights together with an objective review on more proper proxy variables needs to be carried out in order to evaluate the climate change vulnerability of national parks.

Evaluation of the quality of Italian Ryegrass Silages by Near Infrared Spectroscopy (근적외선 분광법을 이용한 이탈리안 라이그라스 사일리지의 품질 평가)

  • Park, Hyung-Soo;Lee, Sang-Hoon;Choi, Ki-Choon;Lim, Young-Chul;Kim, Jong-Gun;Jo, Kyu-Chea;Choi, Gi-Jun
    • Journal of The Korean Society of Grassland and Forage Science
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    • v.32 no.3
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    • pp.301-308
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    • 2012
  • Near infrared reflectance spectroscopy (NIRS) has become increasingly used as a rapid and accurate method of evaluating some chemical compositions in forages. This study was carried out to explore the accuracy of near infrared spectroscopy (NIRS) for the prediction of chemical parameters of Italian ryegrass silages. A population of 267 Italian ryegrass silages representing a wide range in chemical parameters and fermentative characteristics was used in this investigation. Samples of silage were scanned at 2 nm intervals over the wavelength range 680~2,500 nm and the optical data recorded as log 1/Reflectance (log 1/R) and scanned in intact fresh condition. The spectral data were regressed against a range of chemical parameters using partial least squares (PLS) multivariate analysis in conjunction with spectral math treatments to reduced the effect of extraneous noise. The optimum calibrations were selected on the basis of the highest coefficients of determination in cross validation ($R^2$) and the lowest standard error of cross validation (SECV). The results of this study showed that NIRS predicted the chemical parameters with very high degree of accuracy. The $R^2$ and SECV were 0.98 (SECV 1.27%) for moisture, 0.88 (SECV 1.26%) for ADF, 0.84 (SECV 2.0%), 0.93 (SECV 0.96%) for CP and 0.78 (SECV 0.56), 0.81 (SECV 0.31%), 0.88 (SECV 1.26%) and 0.82 (SECV 4.46) for pH, lactic acid, TDN and RFV on a dry matter (%), respectively. Results of this experiment showed the possibility of NIRS method to predict the chemical composition and fermentation quality of Italian ryegrass silages as routine analysis method in feeding value evaluation and for farmer advice.

Analysis of Environmental Design Data for Growing Pleurotus ervngii (큰 느타리버섯 재배사의 환경설계용 자료 분석)

  • Yoon, Yong-Cheol;Suh, Won-Myung;Lee, In-Bok
    • Journal of Bio-Environment Control
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    • v.14 no.2
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    • pp.95-105
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    • 2005
  • This study was carried out to file up using effect and requirement of energy for environmental design data of Pleurotus eryngii growing houses. Heating and cooling Degree-Hour (D-H) were calculated and compared for. some Pleurotus eryngii growing houses of sandwich-panel (permanent) o. arch-roofed(simple) type structures modified and suggested through field survey and analysis. Also thermal resistance (R-value) was calculated for the heat insulating and covering materials of the permanent and simple-type, which were made of polyurethane or polystyrene panel and $7\~8$ layers heat conservation cover wall. The variations of heating and cooling D-H simulated for Jinju area was nearly linearly proportional to the setting inside temperatures. The variations of cooling D-H was much more sensitive than those of heating D-H. Therefore, it was expected that the variations of required energy in accordance with setting temperature or actual temperature maintained inside of the cultivation house could be estimated and also the estimated results of heating and cooling D-H could be effectively used far the verification of environmental simulation as well as for the calculation of required energy amounts. When the cultivation floor areas are all equal, panel type houses to be constructed by various combinations of materials were found to by far more effective than simple type pipe house in the aspect of energy conservation maintenance except some additional cost invested initially. And also the energy effectiveness of multi-span house compared to single span together with the prediction of energy requirement depending on the level insulated for the wall and roof area could be estimated. Additionally, structural as well as environmental optimizations are expected to be possible by calculating periodical and/or seasonal energy requirements for those various combinations of insulation level and different climate conditions, etc.

Laboratory chamber test for prediction of hazardous ground conditions ahead of a TBM tunnel face using electrical resistivity survey (전기비저항 탐사 기반 TBM 터널 굴진면 전방 위험 지반 예측을 위한 실내 토조실험 연구)

  • Lee, JunHo;Kang, Minkyu;Lee, Hyobum;Choi, Hangseok
    • Journal of Korean Tunnelling and Underground Space Association
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    • v.23 no.6
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    • pp.451-468
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    • 2021
  • Predicting hazardous ground conditions ahead of a TBM (Tunnel Boring Machine) tunnel face is essential for efficient and stable TBM advance. Although there have been several studies on the electrical resistivity survey method for TBM tunnelling, sufficient experimental data considering TBM advance were not established yet. Therefore, in this study, the laboratory-scale model experiments for simulating TBM excavation were carried out to analyze the applicability of an electrical resistivity survey for predicting hazardous ground conditions ahead of a TBM tunnel face. The trend of electrical resistivity during TBM advance was experimentally evaluated under various hazardous ground conditions (fault zone, seawater intruded zone, soil to rock transition zone, and rock to soil transition zone) ahead of a tunnel face. In the course of the experiments, a scale-down rock ground was provided using granite blocks to simulate the rock TBM tunnelling. Based on the experimental data, the electrical resistivity tends to decrease as the tunnel approaches the fault zone. While the seawater intruded zone follows a similar trend with the fault zone, the resistivity value of the seawater intrude zone decreased significantly compared to that of the fault zone. In case of the soil-to-rock transition zone, the electrical resistivity increases as the TBM approaches the rock with relatively high electrical resistivity. Conversely, in case of the rock-to-soil transition zone, the opposite trend was observed. That is, electrical resistivity decreases as the tunnel face approaches the rock with relatively low electrical resistivity. The experiment results represent that hazardous ground conditions (fault zone, seawater intruded zone, soil-to-rock transition zone, rock-to-soil transition zone) can be efficiently predicted by utilizing an electrical resistivity survey during TBM tunnelling.

Evaluation of the Utilization Potential of High-Resolution Optical Satellite Images in Port Ship Management: A Case Study on Berth Utilization in Busan New Port (고해상도 광학 위성영상의 항만선박관리 활용 가능성 평가: 부산 신항의 선석 활용을 대상으로)

  • Hyunsoo Kim ;Soyeong Jang ;Tae-Ho Kim
    • Korean Journal of Remote Sensing
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    • v.39 no.5_4
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    • pp.1173-1183
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    • 2023
  • Over the past 20 years, Korea's overall import and export cargo volume has increased at an average annual rate of approximately 5.3%. About 99% of the cargo is still being transported by sea. Due to recent increases in maritime cargo volume, congestion in maritime logistics has become challenging due to factors such as the COVID-19 pandemic and conflicts. Continuous monitoring of ports has become crucial. Various ground observation systems and Automatic Identification System (AIS) data have been utilized for monitoring ports and conducting numerous preliminary studies for the efficient operation of container terminals and cargo volume prediction. However, small and developing countries' ports face difficulties in monitoring due to environmental issues and aging infrastructure compared to large ports. Recently, with the increasing utility of artificial satellites, preliminary studies have been conducted using satellite imagery for continuous maritime cargo data collection and establishing ocean monitoring systems in vast and hard-to-reach areas. This study aims to visually detect ships docked at berths in the Busan New Port using high-resolution satellite imagery and quantitatively evaluate berth utilization rates. By utilizing high-resolution satellite imagery from Compact Advanced Satellite 500-1 (CAS500-1), Korea Multi-Purpose satellite-3 (KOMPSAT-3), PlanetScope, and Sentinel-2A, ships docked within the port berths were visually detected. The berth utilization rate was calculated using the total number of ships that could be docked at the berths. The results showed variations in berth utilization rates on June 2, 2022, with values of 0.67, 0.7, and 0.59, indicating fluctuations based on the time of satellite image capture. On June 3, 2022, the value remained at 0.7, signifying a consistent berth utilization rate despite changes in ship types. A higher berth utilization rate indicates active operations at the berth. This information can assist in basic planning for new ship operation schedules, as congested berths can lead to longer waiting times for ships in anchorages, potentially resulting in increased freight rates. The duration of operations at berths can vary from several hours to several days. The results of calculating changes in ships at berths based on differences in satellite image capture times, even with a time difference of 4 minutes and 49 seconds, demonstrated variations in ship presence. With short observation intervals and the utilization of high-resolution satellite imagery, continuous monitoring within ports can be achieved. Additionally, utilizing satellite imagery to monitor changes in ships at berths in minute increments could prove useful for small and developing country ports where harbor management is not well-established, offering valuable insights and solutions.

A Study on Interactions of Competitive Promotions Between the New and Used Cars (신차와 중고차간 프로모션의 상호작용에 대한 연구)

  • Chang, Kwangpil
    • Asia Marketing Journal
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    • v.14 no.1
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    • pp.83-98
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    • 2012
  • In a market where new and used cars are competing with each other, we would run the risk of obtaining biased estimates of cross elasticity between them if we focus on only new cars or on only used cars. Unfortunately, most of previous studies on the automobile industry have focused on only new car models without taking into account the effect of used cars' pricing policy on new cars' market shares and vice versa, resulting in inadequate prediction of reactive pricing in response to competitors' rebate or price discount. However, there are some exceptions. Purohit (1992) and Sullivan (1990) looked into both new and used car markets at the same time to examine the effect of new car model launching on the used car prices. But their studies have some limitations in that they employed the average used car prices reported in NADA Used Car Guide instead of actual transaction prices. Some of the conflicting results may be due to this problem in the data. Park (1998) recognized this problem and used the actual prices in his study. His work is notable in that he investigated the qualitative effect of new car model launching on the pricing policy of the used car in terms of reinforcement of brand equity. The current work also used the actual price like Park (1998) but the quantitative aspect of competitive price promotion between new and used cars of the same model was explored. In this study, I develop a model that assumes that the cross elasticity between new and used cars of the same model is higher than those amongst new cars and used cars of the different model. Specifically, I apply the nested logit model that assumes the car model choice at the first stage and the choice between new and used cars at the second stage. This proposed model is compared to the IIA (Independence of Irrelevant Alternatives) model that assumes that there is no decision hierarchy but that new and used cars of the different model are all substitutable at the first stage. The data for this study are drawn from Power Information Network (PIN), an affiliate of J.D. Power and Associates. PIN collects sales transaction data from a sample of dealerships in the major metropolitan areas in the U.S. These are retail transactions, i.e., sales or leases to final consumers, excluding fleet sales and including both new car and used car sales. Each observation in the PIN database contains the transaction date, the manufacturer, model year, make, model, trim and other car information, the transaction price, consumer rebates, the interest rate, term, amount financed (when the vehicle is financed or leased), etc. I used data for the compact cars sold during the period January 2009- June 2009. The new and used cars of the top nine selling models are included in the study: Mazda 3, Honda Civic, Chevrolet Cobalt, Toyota Corolla, Hyundai Elantra, Ford Focus, Volkswagen Jetta, Nissan Sentra, and Kia Spectra. These models in the study accounted for 87% of category unit sales. Empirical application of the nested logit model showed that the proposed model outperformed the IIA (Independence of Irrelevant Alternatives) model in both calibration and holdout samples. The other comparison model that assumes choice between new and used cars at the first stage and car model choice at the second stage turned out to be mis-specfied since the dissimilarity parameter (i.e., inclusive or categroy value parameter) was estimated to be greater than 1. Post hoc analysis based on estimated parameters was conducted employing the modified Lanczo's iterative method. This method is intuitively appealing. For example, suppose a new car offers a certain amount of rebate and gains market share at first. In response to this rebate, a used car of the same model keeps decreasing price until it regains the lost market share to maintain the status quo. The new car settle down to a lowered market share due to the used car's reaction. The method enables us to find the amount of price discount to main the status quo and equilibrium market shares of the new and used cars. In the first simulation, I used Jetta as a focal brand to see how its new and used cars set prices, rebates or APR interactively assuming that reactive cars respond to price promotion to maintain the status quo. The simulation results showed that the IIA model underestimates cross elasticities, resulting in suggesting less aggressive used car price discount in response to new cars' rebate than the proposed nested logit model. In the second simulation, I used Elantra to reconfirm the result for Jetta and came to the same conclusion. In the third simulation, I had Corolla offer $1,000 rebate to see what could be the best response for Elantra's new and used cars. Interestingly, Elantra's used car could maintain the status quo by offering lower price discount ($160) than the new car ($205). In the future research, we might want to explore the plausibility of the alternative nested logit model. For example, the NUB model that assumes choice between new and used cars at the first stage and brand choice at the second stage could be a possibility even though it was rejected in the current study because of mis-specification (A dissimilarity parameter turned out to be higher than 1). The NUB model may have been rejected due to true mis-specification or data structure transmitted from a typical car dealership. In a typical car dealership, both new and used cars of the same model are displayed. Because of this fact, the BNU model that assumes brand choice at the first stage and choice between new and used cars at the second stage may have been favored in the current study since customers first choose a dealership (brand) then choose between new and used cars given this market environment. However, suppose there are dealerships that carry both new and used cars of various models, then the NUB model might fit the data as well as the BNU model. Which model is a better description of the data is an empirical question. In addition, it would be interesting to test a probabilistic mixture model of the BNU and NUB on a new data set.

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A Study on Recent Research Trend in Management of Technology Using Keywords Network Analysis (키워드 네트워크 분석을 통해 살펴본 기술경영의 최근 연구동향)

  • Kho, Jaechang;Cho, Kuentae;Cho, Yoonho
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.19 no.2
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    • pp.101-123
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    • 2013
  • Recently due to the advancements of science and information technology, the socio-economic business areas are changing from the industrial economy to a knowledge economy. Furthermore, companies need to do creation of new value through continuous innovation, development of core competencies and technologies, and technological convergence. Therefore, the identification of major trends in technology research and the interdisciplinary knowledge-based prediction of integrated technologies and promising techniques are required for firms to gain and sustain competitive advantage and future growth engines. The aim of this paper is to understand the recent research trend in management of technology (MOT) and to foresee promising technologies with deep knowledge for both technology and business. Furthermore, this study intends to give a clear way to find new technical value for constant innovation and to capture core technology and technology convergence. Bibliometrics is a metrical analysis to understand literature's characteristics. Traditional bibliometrics has its limitation not to understand relationship between trend in technology management and technology itself, since it focuses on quantitative indices such as quotation frequency. To overcome this issue, the network focused bibliometrics has been used instead of traditional one. The network focused bibliometrics mainly uses "Co-citation" and "Co-word" analysis. In this study, a keywords network analysis, one of social network analysis, is performed to analyze recent research trend in MOT. For the analysis, we collected keywords from research papers published in international journals related MOT between 2002 and 2011, constructed a keyword network, and then conducted the keywords network analysis. Over the past 40 years, the studies in social network have attempted to understand the social interactions through the network structure represented by connection patterns. In other words, social network analysis has been used to explain the structures and behaviors of various social formations such as teams, organizations, and industries. In general, the social network analysis uses data as a form of matrix. In our context, the matrix depicts the relations between rows as papers and columns as keywords, where the relations are represented as binary. Even though there are no direct relations between papers who have been published, the relations between papers can be derived artificially as in the paper-keyword matrix, in which each cell has 1 for including or 0 for not including. For example, a keywords network can be configured in a way to connect the papers which have included one or more same keywords. After constructing a keywords network, we analyzed frequency of keywords, structural characteristics of keywords network, preferential attachment and growth of new keywords, component, and centrality. The results of this study are as follows. First, a paper has 4.574 keywords on the average. 90% of keywords were used three or less times for past 10 years and about 75% of keywords appeared only one time. Second, the keyword network in MOT is a small world network and a scale free network in which a small number of keywords have a tendency to become a monopoly. Third, the gap between the rich (with more edges) and the poor (with fewer edges) in the network is getting bigger as time goes on. Fourth, most of newly entering keywords become poor nodes within about 2~3 years. Finally, keywords with high degree centrality, betweenness centrality, and closeness centrality are "Innovation," "R&D," "Patent," "Forecast," "Technology transfer," "Technology," and "SME". The results of analysis will help researchers identify major trends in MOT research and then seek a new research topic. We hope that the result of the analysis will help researchers of MOT identify major trends in technology research, and utilize as useful reference information when they seek consilience with other fields of study and select a new research topic.

Fertility and Rate of Fertilizer Application for Orchard Soils of Apple and Pear (사과 및 배 과수토양(果樹土壤)의 비옥도구분(肥沃度區分)에 의한 시비기준(施肥基準) 설정(設定))

  • Lee, Choon-Soo;Lee, Ju-Young;Lee, Yong-Jae;Shin, Jae-Sung;Han, Ki-Hak;Kim, Dong-Soo
    • Korean Journal of Soil Science and Fertilizer
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    • v.26 no.2
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    • pp.103-110
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    • 1993
  • This study was made to evaluate the chemical properties of 481 farmers' orchard fields in An-Seong area. And the reasonable ferilizer rates were recommended utilizing the result of soil analysis. The results are summarized as follows : 1. As the soil fertility status of collected soil samples were evaluated on the basis of temporary optimal range for each soil chemical properties, 12.7 to 49.6% of the total 481 farmers' fields were range for soil improvement. 2. The contents of chemical component have a tendancy to decrease with depth gradually from surface to subsoil. 3. According to the relationship between the contents of soil component in subsoil and those in surface soil, the fertility condition of subsoil could be estimated on the basis of analysis data of surface soil. 4. The multiple regression equation for pear yield prediction to the organic matter and exchangable calcium contents in the soil were obtained. 5. Referring the average value, distribution ratio compared to the optimum level for each soil chemical properties and standard fertilizer rate, the soil fertility status could be categorized as "High" "Medium" and "Low". For each category, the recommended amounts for NPK and organic matter application were established. 6. The recommended rates through soul fertility diagnosis were less than farmer's dosage in the range 7.1~7.7 kg/10a for N, 0.8~11.5 kg/10a for $P_2O_5$, 7.1~19.9 kg/10a for $K_2O$ and 90~116 kg/10a for lime.

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Predictors of Clinically Non Specific Bacterial Infection in Febrile Children Less than 3 Years of Age : WBC, ESR and CRP (비특이적 소견을 보이는 3세 이하의 발열 환아에서 세균성 감염의 예측 인자 : 백혈구 수, 적혈구 침강 속도, C-반응성 단백질)

  • Nho, Jeong A;Rho, Young Il;Yang, Eun Seuk;Kim, Eun Young;Park, Yeong Bong;Moon, Kyung Rye
    • Clinical and Experimental Pediatrics
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    • v.46 no.8
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    • pp.758-762
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    • 2003
  • Purpose : Our examination was designed to determine the diagnostic properties of the cutoff point for the prediction of bacteremia in febrile children less than 3 years of age. Cutoff point is the value that simultaneously maximizes both sensitivity and specificity. Methods : We conducted a retrospective study of febrile children, less than 3 years of age, who clinically have no identifiable source of fever. Peripheral blood leukocyte count(WBC), absolute neutrophil count(ANC), erythrocyte sedimentation rate(ESR) and C-reactive protein(CRP) were measured at the same time. All patients received blood culture, urine culture and/or CSF culture. Bacterial infection was defined as single pathogen isolated from the CSF or blood or a urinary tract infection (UTI). Patients were dichotomized into two groups : those with bacterial infection and no bacterial infection. We analyzed the characteristics of the children in the two groups. Results : Seventy-one patients(44 males; 27 females) were enrolled in the study. Twenty patients (28%) had a serious bacterial infection(twelve urinary tract infection, five bacteremia, three meningitis) and fifty-one(72%) had no serious bacterial infection. WBC, ESR and CRP were significantly different between the two groups(P<0.05). The cutoff point of WBC, ESR and CRP were $20,000/mm^3$, 30 mm/hr and 3.0 mg/dL, respectively. The sensitivity and specificity of each cutoff point were WBC(75%, 75%), ESR(79%, 68%) and CRP(83%, 77%), respectively. Conclusion : These data show the ability of predictors to identify febrile children less than 3 years of age with bacterial infection. Febrile children who reach the cutoff point must be treated intensively and those who do not reach the cutoff point can be carefully managed without administering antimicrobial agents.

GnRH Agonist Stimulation Test (GAST) for Prediction of Ovarian Response in Controlled Ovarian Stimulation (COH) (난소기능평가를 위한 Gonadotropin Releasing Hormone Agonist Stimulation Test (GAST)의 효용성에 관한 연구)

  • Kim, Mee-Ran;Song, In-Ok;Yeon, Hye-Jeong;Choi, Bum-Chae;Paik, Eun-Chan;Koong, Mi-Kyoung;Song, Il-Pyo;Lee, Jin-Woo;Kang, Inn-Soo
    • Clinical and Experimental Reproductive Medicine
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    • v.26 no.2
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    • pp.163-170
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    • 1999
  • Objectives: The aims of this study are 1) to determine if GAST is a better indicator in predicting ovarian response to COH compared with patient's age or basal FSH level and 2) to evaluate its role in detecting abnormal ovarian response. Design: Prospective study in 118 patients undergoing IVF-ET using GnRH-a short protocol during May-September 1995. Materials and Methods: After blood sampling for basal FSH and estradiol $(E_2)$ on cycle day two, 0.5ml (0.525mg) GnRH agonist ($Suprefact^{(r)}$, Hoechst) was injected subcutaneously. Serum $E_2$ was measured 24 hours later. Initial $E_2$ difference $({\Delta}E_2)$ was defined as the change in $E_2$ on day 3 over the baseline day 2 value. Sixteen patients with ovarian cyst or single ovary or incorrect blood collection time were excluded from the analysis. The patients were divided into three groups by ${\Delta}E_2$; group A (n=30):${\Delta}E_2$<40 pg/ml, group B (n=52): 40 pg/ml${\leq}{\Delta}E_2$<100 pg/ml, group C (n=20): ${\Delta}E_2{\leq}100$ pg/ml. COH was done by GnRH agonist/HMG/hCG and IVF-ET was followed. Ratio of $E_2$ on day of hCG injection over the number of ampules of gonadotropins used ($E_2hCGday$/Amp) was regarded as ovarian responsiveness. Poor ovarian response and overstimulation were defined as $E_2$ hCGday less than 600 pg/ml and greater than 5000 pg/ml, respectively. Results: Mean age $({\pm}SEM)$ in group A, B and C were $33.7{\pm}0.8^*,\;31.5{\pm}0.6\;and\;30.6{\pm}0.5^*$, respectively ($^*$: p<0.05). Mean basal FSH level of group $A(11.1{\pm}1.1mlU/ml)$ was significantly higher than those of $B(7.4{\pm}0.2mIU/ml)$ and C $(6.8{\pm}0.4mIU/ml)$ (p<0.001). Mean $E_2hCGday$ of group A was significantly lower than those of group B or C, i.e., $1402.1{\pm}187.7pg/ml,\;3153.2{\pm}240.0pg/ml,\;4078.8{\pm}306.4pg/ml$ respectively (p<0.0001). The number of ampules of gonadotropins used in group A was significantly greater than those in group B or C: $38.6{\pm}2.3,\;24.2{\pm}1.1\;and\;18.5{\pm}1.0$ (p<0.0001). The number of oocytes retrieved in group A was significantly smaller than those in group B or C: $6.4{\pm}1.1,\;15.5{\pm}1.1\;and\;18.6{\pm}1.6$, respectively (p<0.0001). By stepwise multiple regression, only ${\Delta}E_2$ showed a significant correlation (r=0.68, p<0.0001) with $E_2HCGday$/Amp, while age or basal FSH level were not significant. Likewise, only ${\Delta}E_2$ correlated significantly with the number of oocytes retrieved (r=0.57, p<0.001). All four patients whose COH was canceled due to poor ovarian response belonged to group A only (Fisher's exact test, p<0.01). Whereas none of 30 patients in group A (0%) had overstimulation, 14 patients among 72 patients (19.4%) in group B and C had overstimulation (Fisher's exact test, p<0.01). Conclusions: These data suggest that initial $E_2$ difference after GAST may be a better prognostic indicator of ovarian response to COH than age or basal FSH level. Since initial $E_2$ difference demonstrates significant association with abnormal ovarian response such as poor ovarian response necessitating cycle cancellation or overstimulation, GAST may be helpful in monitoring and consultation of patients during COH in IVF-ET cycle.

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