• 상하수도학회지
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• 제10권2호
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• pp.88-103
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• 1996

The objective of this study is to develop stochastic and deterministic models which could be used to synthesize water application time series. Adaptive models using mulitivariate ARIMA(Transfer Function Model) are developed for daily urban water use forecasting. The model considers several variables on which water demands is dependent. The dynamic response of water demands to several factors(e.g. weekday, average temperature, minimum temperature, maximum temperature, humidity, cloudiness, rainfall) are characterized in the model by transfer functions. Daily water use data of Kumi city in 1992 are employed for model parameter estimation. Meteorological data of Seonsan station are utilized to input variables because Kumi has no records about the meteorological factor data.To determine the main factors influencing water use, autocorrelogram and cross correlogram analysis are performed. Through the identification, parameter estimation, and diagnostic checking of tentative model, final transfer function models by each month are established. The simulation output by transfer function models are compared to a historical data and shows the good agreement.

• Journal of Preventive Medicine and Public Health
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• 제38권3호
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• pp.283-290
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• 2005

Objectives : The aim of this paper was to examine the relationship between the summertime (June to August) heat index, which quantifies the bioclimatic apparent temperature in sultry weather, and the daily disease-related mortality in Seoul for the period from 1991 to 2000. Methods : The daily maximum (or minimum) summertime heat indices, which show synergetic apparent temperatures, were calculated from the six hourly temperatures and real time humidity data for Seoul from 1991 to 2000. The disease-related daily mortality was extracted with respect to types of disease, age and sex, etc. and compared with the time series of the daily heat indices. Results : The summertime mortality in 1994 exceeded the normal by 626 persons. Specifically, blood circulation-related and cancer-related mortalities increased in 1994 by 29.7% (224 persons) and 15.4% (107 persons), respectively, compared with those in 1993. Elderly persons, those above 65 years, were shown to be highly susceptible to strong heat waves, whereas the other age and sex-based groups showed no significant difference in mortality. In particular, a heat wave episode on the 22nd of July 2004 ($>45^{\circ}C$ daily heat index) resulted in double the normal number of mortalities after a lag time of 3 days. Specifically, blood circulation-related mortalities, such as cerebral infraction, were predominant causes. Overall, a critical mortality threshold was reached when the heat index exceeded approximately $37^{\circ}C$, which corresponds to human body temperature. A linear regression model based on the heat indices above $37^{\circ}C$, with a 3 day lag time, accounted for 63% of the abnormally increased mortality (${\geq}+2$ standard deviations). Conclusions : This study revealed that elderly persons, those over 65 years old, are more vulnerable to mortality due to abnormal heat waves in Seoul, Korea. When the daily maximum heat index exceeds approximately $37^{\circ}C$, blood circulation-related mortality significantly increases. A linear regression model, with respect to lag-time, showed that the heat index based on a human model is a more dependable indicator for the prediction of hot weather-related mortality than the ambient air temperature.

• 한국농림기상학회지
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• 제7권3호
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• pp.185-191
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• 2005

An accurate prediction of dormancy release and bud burst in temperate zone fruit trees is indispensable for farmers to plan heating time under partially controlled environments as well as to reduce the risk of frost damage in open fields. A thermal time-based two-step phenological model that originated in Italy was applied to two important grapevine cultivars in Korea for predicting bud-burst dates. The model consists of two sequential periods: a rest period described by chilling requirement and a forcing period described by heating requirement. It requires daily maximum and minimum temperature as an input and calculates daily chill units (chill days in negative sign) until a pre-determined chilling requirement for rest release is met. After the projected rest release date, it adds daily heat units (anti-chill days in positive sign) to the chilling requirement. The date when the sum reaches zero isregarded as the bud-burst in the model. Controlled environment experiments using field sampled twigs of 'Campbell Early' and 'Kyoho' cultivars were carried out in the vineyard at the National Horticultural Research Institute (NHRI) in Suwon during 2004-2005 to derive the model parameters: threshold temperature for chilling and chilling requirement for breaking dormancy. The model adjusted with the selected parameters was applied to the 1994-2004 daily temperature data obtained from the automated weather station in the NHRI vineyard to estimate bud burst dates of two cultivars and the results were compared with the observed data. The model showed a consistently good performance in predicting the bud burst of 'Campbell Early' and 'Kyoho' cultivars with 2.6 and 2.5 days of root mean squared error, respectively.

• 한국농공학회논문집
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• 제50권2호
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• pp.55-63
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• 2008

We investigated characteristics of temperature variation in urban and suburban areas(e.g., paddy field, upland, park, residential area) and urban heat island(UHI) during winter(December 2005 to February 2006). The daily maximum air temperature was not significantly different between suburban and urban areas, whereas the daily minimum air temperatures were significantly lower in the suburban areas than that in the residential area. The wind speed in the urban park(0.3 m/s) was much lower than that in the paddy fields(2.3 m/s), likely due to an urban canopy layer formed by high buildings. The UHI intensity was represented by differences in daily minimum temperatures between urban residential and paddy field areas. The UHI intensity($4.1^{\circ}C$) in winter was larger than that($2.6^{\circ}C$) in summer. This may be because a stable boundary layer develops in the winter, and thereby this inhibits diffusion of heat from surface.

• 한국자원식물학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국자원식물학회 2000년도 춘계임시총회 및 학술발표대회
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• pp.26-33
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• 2000

This study was conducted to investigate the relationships between yearly variations of elimatic elements and yearly variations of productivity in potato. In addition, correlation coefficients among yield and yield components were estimated. The data of yield and yield components were investigated for 9 years from 1987 to 1995. The meteorological data what gathered at the Goheung Weather Station for the same period of crop growing season were used to find out the relationships between climatic elements and crop productivity. Yearly variation of the daily minimum temperature in March and April were large with coefficients of variation (C.V.) of 126.0%, 368%, respectively, but the variation of the daily mean and maximum temperature in May and June were relative small. Stem length and number of stem show more C.V. of 9.3%, 14.3%, respectively, but the variation of the yield was relative small with 3.7%. Correlation coefficients between the amount of precipitation in April and yield, yield and daily mean temperature in June were negatively significant at the level of 5, 1 %, respectively. Correlation coefficients between the growth habits and yield are positively significant at the level of 5, 1 %, respectively. Simple linear regression equations by the least square method are estimated for stem length (Yl) and the precipitation in April(X) as Y,=82.47-0.11x (R2=0.3959), and for yield(Y2) and the precipitation in April(X) as Y,=2003.61-0.94X (R2=0.5418).

• Journal of the Korean Wood Science and Technology
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• 제38권1호
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• pp.66-74
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• 2010

본 연구는 전라남도 광양시 백운산의 고로쇠나무 수액의 출수와 영향인자들을 분석하여 최적의 수액출수 조건을 얻고자 출수량, 고로쇠나무 흉고직경, 시험지의 기온과 상대습도를 2008년 1월 15일~3월 28일의 기간에 측정하여 출수량과 다른 측정값들과의 상관성 분석을 수행하였다. 수액 출수량은 고로쇠나무의 직경이 클수록 증가하였으며 출수에 필요한 최소 흉고직경은 17.1 cm로 분석되었고, 출수 시기는 직경별로 차이가 없었다. 수액 출수가 관찰될 때 일최저기온은 $-2.4{\pm}1.5^{\circ}C$, 그리고 일최고기온은 $6.0{\pm}1.8^{\circ}C$로 영상과 영하의 기온이 교차 하였고, 반면에 하루 종일 영상 혹은 영하의 기온을 유지시 출수가 관찰되지 아니하였다. 수액 출수량과 기온 및 대기습도와의 상관분석에서 수액출수량은 일최고기온, 일교차, 일최고습도, 일최저습도, 일평균습도에 유의성이 있었으며, 수액출수량과 일최고기온의 상관계수는 0.768 (P < 0.01)로 가장 높게 나타났다. 줄이들 인자들에 대한 편상관 분석결과 일최고기온이 주요 영향인자이었다. 수액 출수에는 일중 영하와 영상의 기온이 교차해야 하고 일최고기온이 높을수록, 그리고 고로쇠나무의 흉고직경이 클수록 출수량이 높았다.

• 한국수산과학회지
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• 제28권6호
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• pp.805-811
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• 1995

Final biomass yields (peak optical density) and growth rates (divisions/day) of seven clones of Skeletonema costatum from Korean coastal waters were measured to understand their intraspecific variations in the light intensity niche component under $25^{\circ}C$ condition. Daily growth rates of 6 of 7 S. costatum, clones were maximum at 6000 lux while that of YS4, a neritic clone, was maximum at 9000 lux. The final biomass yields of 4 of the 7 S. costatum clones were maximum at the lowest light intensity of 2000 lux. Minimum final biomass yields were found at 9000 lux in all the S. costatum clones other than an estuarine clone, HDC9. The intraspecific variations of the mean growth rate and mean final biomass yield under each of the three different light intensity in terms of the coefficient of variation were not greater than 10% in any of the 7 S. costatum clones.

• 한국대기환경학회지
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• 제29권6호
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• pp.780-788
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• 2013

This study attempted to determine important meteorological parameters related to airborne pollen concentrations in urban areas. Hourly pollen measurement data were prepared from a regular sampling with a volumetric Burkard spore trap at a site in the Ulsan city, during the spring season (March~May) of 2011. Results showed that the daily mean and maximum concentrations for total pollen counts during the spring season were statistically significantly correlated with both air temperature and wind speed; daily mean pollen concentration was the most highly related to daily maximum temperature (r=0.567, p<0.001). It was also identified that pollen concentration has a stronger relationship with wind speed at the rural site than at the urban one, which confirms that strong wind conditions over the pollen sources area can be favorable for pollen dispersal, resulting in increases in airborne pollen concentrations downwind. From the results of an oak-pollen episode analysis, it was found that there was a significant relationship between hourly variation of oak pollen concentrations and dynamic meteorological factors, such as wind and mixing height (representing the boundary layer depth); especially, a strong southwestern wind and elevated mixing height was associated with high nocturnal concentrations of oak pollen. This study suggests that temperature, wind, and mixing height can be important considerations in explaining the pollen concentration variations. Additional examination of complex interactions of multiple meteorological parameters affecting pollen behavior should be carried out in order to better understand and predict the temporal and spatial pollen distribution in urban areas.

• 한국산학기술학회논문지
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• 제11권8호
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• pp.2793-2800
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• 2010

이 논문에서는 여름철 일일 전력수요 총량을 예측하는 회귀모형을 개발한다. 경제적인 전력 생산계획을 수립하기위해 예측 오차율을 낮추는 것은 매우 중요하다. 전력수요가 크게 증가하는 여름철 전력수요를 예측하기위해 기존 연구에서는 외기온도 및 직전일 전력수요를 고려하였으나, 이 논문에서는 기존 연구에서 제시한 예측 오차율을 개선하기 위해 전력수요의 요일별 특성을 추가적으로 고려한 회귀모형을 개발한다. 이 논문에서는 여름철 전력수요의 요일별 패턴은 최고차항의 계수가 음수인 2차 함수 형태를 나타냄을 확인하였다. 즉, 2005년부터 2009년까지 5년간의 여름철 전력수요 패턴을 살펴본 결과 전력수요 총량은 일요일에 가장 낮고 월요일부터 증가하다가 수요일이나 목요일부터 다시 감소하는 패턴을 보인다. 이 논문에서 제안하는 여름철 전력수요 예측 회귀모형의 타당성을 검증하기 위해 2005년부터 2009년까지 실제 전력수요 데이터를 바탕으로 여름철 전력수요 총량을 예측한 결과, 평균 오차율(MAPE: Mean Absolute Percentage Error)과 최대 오차율(MPE: Maximum Percentage Error)이 각각 3.08%와 8.99%를 넘지 않는 수준임을 확인하였다. 또한 기존 연구에서 제시한 방법과 비교하여도 평균 오차율과 최대 오차율 모두 기존 연구에서 제시한 오차율보다 우수함을 확인하였다.

• 한국태양에너지학회 논문집
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• 제35권3호
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• pp.73-79
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• 2015

In this study, a thermal storage performance and characteristics of daily operation were investigated when the air and the liquid were heated simultaneously by a hybrid solar air-water heater that can make hot water as well as heated air. The hybrid solar air-water heater is kind of a flat plate solar collector that can make hot water and heated air by installing air channel beneath absorber plate of traditional flat plate solar collector for hot water. As a result of daily operation, maximum water temperature reached in a thermal storage was shown $44^{\circ}C$ on 73kg/h of air mass flow rate and about $40^{\circ}C$ on 176kg/h of air mass flow rate. Thus, the necessity of heating water in thermal storage by operating only liquid side was confirmed when the temperature of liquid in thermal storage is lower than we need. In case of efficiency investigated on daily operation, the thermal efficiency of the liquid side was decreased with increment of the inlet liquid temperature and decrement of the solar radiation, but efficiency of the air side was increased with increment of inlet liquid temperature difference as the traditional solar air heater. Total thermal efficiency of the collector was shown from 65.85% to 78.23% and it was decreased with increment of the inlet liquid temperature and decrement of solar radiation same as the traditional system.