• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
• /
• v.54 no.6
• /
• pp.419-431
• /
• 2021

In Seoul, it has been confirmed that the duration of rainfall is shortened and the frequency and intensity of heavy rains are increasing with a changing climate. In addition, due to high population density and urbanization in most areas, floods frequently occur in flood-prone areas for the increase in impermeable areas. Furthermore, the Seoul City is pursuing various projects such as structural and non-structural measures to resolve flood-prone areas. A disaster prevention performance target was set in consideration of the climate change impact of future precipitation, and this study conducted to reduce the overall flood damage in Seoul for the long-term. In this study, 29 GCMs with RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios were used for spatial and temporal disaggregation, and we also considered for 3 research periods, which is short-term (2006-2040, P1), mid-term (2041-2070, P2), and long-term (2071-2100, P3), respectively. For spatial downscaling, daily data of GCM was processed through Quantile Mapping based on the rainfall of the Seoul station managed by the Korea Meteorological Administration and for temporal downscaling, daily data were downscaled to hourly data through k-nearest neighbor resampling and nonparametric temporal detailing techniques using genetic algorithms. Through temporal downscaling, 100 detailed scenarios were calculated for each GCM scenario, and the IDF curve was calculated based on a total of 2,900 detailed scenarios, and by averaging this, the change in the future extreme rainfall was calculated. As a result, it was confirmed that the probability of rainfall for a duration of 100 years and a duration of 1 hour increased by 8 to 16% in the RCP4.5 scenario, and increased by 7 to 26% in the RCP8.5 scenario. Based on the results of this study, the amount of rainfall designed to prepare for future climate change in Seoul was estimated and if can be used to establish purpose-wise water related disaster prevention policies.

• Korean Journal of Ecology and Environment
• /
• v.38 no.1 s.110
• /
• pp.54-62
• /
• 2005

The present study was to determine how seasonal rainfall intensity influences nutrient dynamics, ionic contents, oxygen demands, and suspended solids in a lotic ecosystem. Largest seasonal variabilities in most parameters occurred during the two months of July to August and these were closely associated with large spate of rainfall. Dissolved oxygen (DO) had an inverse function of water temperature (r = = = - 0.986, p<0.001). Minimum pH values of<6.5 were observed in the late August when rainfall peaked in the study site, indicating an ionic dilution of stream water by precipitation. Electrical conductivity (EC) was greater during summer than any other seasons, so the overall conductivity values had direct correlation (r = 0.527, p<0.01) with precipitation. Ionic dilution, however, was evident 4 ${\sim}$ 5 days later in short or 1 ${\sim}$ 2 weeks in long after the intense rain, indicating a time-lag phenomenon of conductivity. Daily COD values varied from 0.8 mg $L^{-1}$ to 7.9 mg $L^{-1}$ and their seasonal pattern was similar (r = 0.548, p<0.001) to that of BOD. Total nitrogen (TN) varied little compared to total phosphorus (TP) and was minimum in the base flow of March. In contrast, major input of TP occurred during the period of summer monsoon and this pattern was similar to suspended solids, implying that TP is closely associated (r = 0.890, p<0.01) with suspended inorganic solids. Mass ratios of TN : TP were determined by TP (r= -0.509, p<0.01) rather than TN (r= -0.209, p<0.01). The N : P ratios indicated that phosphorus was a potential primary limiting nutrient for the stream productivity. Overall data suggest that rainfall intensity was considered as a primary key component regulating water chemistry in the stream and maximum variation in water quality was attributed to the largest runoff spate during the summer monsoon.