• Title/Summary/Keyword: credit rating

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The Study of a Development Plan of the Industrial Security Expert System (산업보안관리사 자격제도 발전 방안에 대한 고찰)

  • Cho, Yong-Sun
    • Korean Security Journal
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    • no.40
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    • pp.175-207
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    • 2014
  • This paper focuses on the study of a development direction of the industrial security Expert system. First of all, in order to manage Industrial security system, we need to have law, criminology, business and engineering professionals as well as IT experts, which are the multi-dimensional convergence professionals. Secondly, industrial organizations need to have workforce who can perform security strategy; security plan; security training; security services; or security system management and operations. Industrial security certification system can contribute to cultivate above mentioned professional workforce. Currently Industrial Security Expert(ISE) is a private qualification. However, the author argued that it have to be changed to national qualification. In addition, it is necessary that the system should be given credibility with verifying the personnel whether they are proper or not in the their field. In terms of quality innovation, it is also necessary that distinguish the levels of utilization of rating system of the industrial security coordinator through a long-term examination. With respect to grading criteria, we could consider the requirements as following: whether they must hold the degree of the industrial security-related areas of undergraduate or postgraduate (or to be); what or how many industrial security-related courses they should complete through a credit bank system. If the plan of completing certain industrial security-related credits simply through the credit bank system, without establishing a new industrial security-related department, has established, then industrial security study would be spreaded and advanced. For private certification holders, the problem of the qualification succeeding process is important matter. Additionally, it is necessary to introduce the certifying system of ISMS(Industrial Security Management System) which is a specialized system for protecting industrial technology. To sum up, when the industrial security management system links the industrial security management certification, industrial security would realize in the companies and research institutions dealing with national key technology. Then, a group synergy effect would occurs.

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Ensemble Learning with Support Vector Machines for Bond Rating (회사채 신용등급 예측을 위한 SVM 앙상블학습)

  • Kim, Myoung-Jong
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.18 no.2
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    • pp.29-45
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    • 2012
  • Bond rating is regarded as an important event for measuring financial risk of companies and for determining the investment returns of investors. As a result, it has been a popular research topic for researchers to predict companies' credit ratings by applying statistical and machine learning techniques. The statistical techniques, including multiple regression, multiple discriminant analysis (MDA), logistic models (LOGIT), and probit analysis, have been traditionally used in bond rating. However, one major drawback is that it should be based on strict assumptions. Such strict assumptions include linearity, normality, independence among predictor variables and pre-existing functional forms relating the criterion variablesand the predictor variables. Those strict assumptions of traditional statistics have limited their application to the real world. Machine learning techniques also used in bond rating prediction models include decision trees (DT), neural networks (NN), and Support Vector Machine (SVM). Especially, SVM is recognized as a new and promising classification and regression analysis method. SVM learns a separating hyperplane that can maximize the margin between two categories. SVM is simple enough to be analyzed mathematical, and leads to high performance in practical applications. SVM implements the structuralrisk minimization principle and searches to minimize an upper bound of the generalization error. In addition, the solution of SVM may be a global optimum and thus, overfitting is unlikely to occur with SVM. In addition, SVM does not require too many data sample for training since it builds prediction models by only using some representative sample near the boundaries called support vectors. A number of experimental researches have indicated that SVM has been successfully applied in a variety of pattern recognition fields. However, there are three major drawbacks that can be potential causes for degrading SVM's performance. First, SVM is originally proposed for solving binary-class classification problems. Methods for combining SVMs for multi-class classification such as One-Against-One, One-Against-All have been proposed, but they do not improve the performance in multi-class classification problem as much as SVM for binary-class classification. Second, approximation algorithms (e.g. decomposition methods, sequential minimal optimization algorithm) could be used for effective multi-class computation to reduce computation time, but it could deteriorate classification performance. Third, the difficulty in multi-class prediction problems is in data imbalance problem that can occur when the number of instances in one class greatly outnumbers the number of instances in the other class. Such data sets often cause a default classifier to be built due to skewed boundary and thus the reduction in the classification accuracy of such a classifier. SVM ensemble learning is one of machine learning methods to cope with the above drawbacks. Ensemble learning is a method for improving the performance of classification and prediction algorithms. AdaBoost is one of the widely used ensemble learning techniques. It constructs a composite classifier by sequentially training classifiers while increasing weight on the misclassified observations through iterations. The observations that are incorrectly predicted by previous classifiers are chosen more often than examples that are correctly predicted. Thus Boosting attempts to produce new classifiers that are better able to predict examples for which the current ensemble's performance is poor. In this way, it can reinforce the training of the misclassified observations of the minority class. This paper proposes a multiclass Geometric Mean-based Boosting (MGM-Boost) to resolve multiclass prediction problem. Since MGM-Boost introduces the notion of geometric mean into AdaBoost, it can perform learning process considering the geometric mean-based accuracy and errors of multiclass. This study applies MGM-Boost to the real-world bond rating case for Korean companies to examine the feasibility of MGM-Boost. 10-fold cross validations for threetimes with different random seeds are performed in order to ensure that the comparison among three different classifiers does not happen by chance. For each of 10-fold cross validation, the entire data set is first partitioned into tenequal-sized sets, and then each set is in turn used as the test set while the classifier trains on the other nine sets. That is, cross-validated folds have been tested independently of each algorithm. Through these steps, we have obtained the results for classifiers on each of the 30 experiments. In the comparison of arithmetic mean-based prediction accuracy between individual classifiers, MGM-Boost (52.95%) shows higher prediction accuracy than both AdaBoost (51.69%) and SVM (49.47%). MGM-Boost (28.12%) also shows the higher prediction accuracy than AdaBoost (24.65%) and SVM (15.42%)in terms of geometric mean-based prediction accuracy. T-test is used to examine whether the performance of each classifiers for 30 folds is significantly different. The results indicate that performance of MGM-Boost is significantly different from AdaBoost and SVM classifiers at 1% level. These results mean that MGM-Boost can provide robust and stable solutions to multi-classproblems such as bond rating.

Analysis of Important Indicators of TCB Using GBM (일반화가속모형을 이용한 기술신용평가 주요 지표 분석)

  • Jeon, Woo-Jeong(Michael);Seo, Young-Wook
    • The Journal of Society for e-Business Studies
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    • v.22 no.4
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    • pp.159-173
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    • 2017
  • In order to provide technical financial support to small and medium-sized venture companies based on technology, the government implemented the TCB evaluation, which is a kind of technology rating evaluation, from the Kibo and a qualified private TCB. In this paper, we briefly review the current state of TCB evaluation and available indicators related to technology evaluation accumulated in the Korea Credit Information Services (TDB), and then use indicators that have a significant effect on the technology rating score. Multiple regression techniques will be explored. And the relative importance and classification accuracy of the indicators were calculated by applying the key indicators as independent features applied to the generalized boosting model, which is a representative machine learning classifier, as the class influence and the fitness of each model. As a result of the analysis, it was analyzed that the relative importance between the two models was not significantly different. However, GBM model had more weight on the InnoBiz certification, R&D department, patent registration and venture confirmation indicators than regression model.

The effect of interaction between internationalization and strategic pursuance on the use of foreign currency denominated debt: in the context of Korean MNEs

  • Kim, Soonsung;Chung, Jaiho;Cho, Myeong-Hyeon
    • East Asian Journal of Business Economics (EAJBE)
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    • v.6 no.3
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    • pp.1-15
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    • 2018
  • Purpose - This study investigates the effect of MNEs' characteristics on the use of foreign currency denominated debt in the context of Korean firms. This study examines the relationship between MNEs and the use of foreign debt focusing on the accessibility to the capital market in addition to the motive of hedging against foreign exchange exposure. Research design and methodology - Probit estimation is employed for estimating significant factors in determination of the use of foreign debt by firms. The dependent variable is a dummy variable to indicate whether a firm uses foreign debt or not at the end of 2004. Independent variables include foreign subsidiaries ratio, export to sale, R&D expenditure to sale, and credit rating. Results - The results show that the interaction between the level of internationalization represented by intra-regional diversification and the strategic characteristics embedded in the region of entry affects the use of foreign debt. In case of a high level of diversification within the developing region with a strong pursuit of asset exploitation, MNEs are more likely to use foreign debt, whereas a high level of diversification within the developed region with a strong pursuit of asset seeking, MNEs are less likely to use foreign debt. Conclusions - The differences between MNEs in terms of intra-regional diversification, strategic orientation, and the accessibility to capital markets as well as the hedging motive affect the use of foreign debt.

Analysis about relation of Won/Dollar Foreign Exchange Rate and Interest Rate of Korea (IMF 전후기간의 원/달러환율과 금리에 대한 실증분석)

  • Kim, Jong-Gwon
    • Proceedings of the Safety Management and Science Conference
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    • 2005.11a
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    • pp.569-579
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    • 2005
  • International capital movement has made progress at global liberalization of finance and foreign exchange, international monetary norm changing into floating exchange rate system, easiness of collection of information and trade at improvement of information communication technology from early of 1970's. Results of empirical test for relation between foreign exchange rate or various determination factors of foreign exchange rate and interest rate are followed by next sentences. First, according to relation between foreign exchange rate and interest rate, correlation for each of variables after OECD entrance is increased. 'But, long-term & short-term interest rate is affected by Hanbo & Kia's bankruptcy, continuous large scale coporates bankruptcy and crisis of foreign exchange. Therefore, financial instability is occured. If portfolio investment fund has been inflow as it is mollified by continuous shortage of foreign exchange and fall of country's credit rating, it is expected to have positive effect for long-term & short-term interest rate from appreciation of won against dollar. Second, results from relation between determination factor of foreign exchange rate and interest rate are followed by next sentences. If surplus of current account and goods account is continued, yield of corporate bond is to be stable. But, margin of surplus is expected to diminish after second quarter 98, and difference between external and domestic interest (after adjusting foreign exchange rate) is to be diminished. And if net inflows of foreign investor's fund (stock and bond) is diminished, it is to have negative effect for yield of corporate bond. According to foreign investor's investment movement of previous years, hedge fund were stayed at least during two years in Mexico. It means that sudden capital outflow is not to be happened at Korea.

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Study on the validation methods of calibration considering correlations (상관관계를 반영한 신용등급 계량화 검정기법 연구)

  • Kim, Enn-Na;Ha, Jeong-Cheol
    • Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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    • v.21 no.3
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    • pp.407-417
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    • 2010
  • In Basel II compliance, internal rating systems are allowed for banks to enhance the self control and the validation of the system are getting more important. The validation methods are composed of qualitative test and quantitative test, three basic standards of which are discriminatory power, stability and calibration. The aim of this article is to review the quantitative tests for calibration and find a new method for it. These methods for discrimination between forecasted PD and observed PD include binomial test, chi square test, Brier score, traffic lights approach, normal test and extended traffic lights approach. We introduce a modified extended traffic lights approach considering asset correlations.

An Analysis on the Accident Factors of the Housing Sold Guarantee in Housing Development Projects (주택분양사업장의 주택분양보증사고 발생요인 분석)

  • Kwak, Kyung-Seob;Baek, Sung-Joon
    • Journal of Cadastre & Land InformatiX
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    • v.44 no.2
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    • pp.231-242
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    • 2014
  • On the Pre-Housing-Sale Systems there are many risks that developers might not fulfill the pre-sale obligations. In korea, in order to protect the people who bought houses from these risk, the Housing Sold Guarantee System was introduced and has been operated. Even though this system if there is accident in the pre-sale warranty business, several problems, such as damages caused to the people who bought the houses, occurs. Therefore, research is needed to Housing Sold Guarantee accident factor. But there are few study about it. This study attempted to analyze influencers on the possibility of the accident. We employ 3,026 data which Korea Housing Guarantee Co., Ltd manages and analyze them empirically, using business characteristics, housing market characteristics, and regional characteristics. Especially this study used to the binary logistic regression model. The results of analysis showed that the accident rate of Housing Sold Guarantee had been effected on the business type, house type, project financing guarantee, operator credit rating, housing market, and regional characteristics.

Risk Mitigation for Independent Power Producer Projects in Developing Countries Based on Case Studies (사례연구를 통한 개발도상국 민자발전사업 리스크 경감방안)

  • Yoon, Young-Il;Yoo, Ho-seon;Yeo, Yeong-Koo
    • Plant Journal
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    • v.9 no.1
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    • pp.50-57
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    • 2013
  • This study investigates the risks that can occur during the development stage of IPP project in developing countries. In case that ECA and MLA cannot participate due to poor credit rating of the country, the diversification of power purchaser in marginal states can be a great help to reduce both market risk and country risk at the same time. In case of thermal power plants and combined cycle power plants, the effect of performance degradation as time passed will be considered and expected profit of sponsors should be maintained. Recently, developing countries are expanding IPP projects to reduce the financing cost and Korean power companies are positively participating in IPP projects. Accordingly, the loss of Korean companies should be minimized by risk management through the risk mitigation methods of this study.

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A Study on Integrated ID Authentication Protocol for Web User (웹 사용자를 위한 통합 ID 인증 프로토콜에 관한 연구)

  • Shin, Seung-Soo;Han, Kun-Hee
    • Journal of Digital Convergence
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    • v.13 no.7
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    • pp.197-205
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    • 2015
  • Existing Web authentication method utilizes the resident registration number by credit rating agencies separating i-PIN authentication method which has been improved authentication using resident registration number via the real name confirmation database. By improving the existing authentication method, and it provides the available integrated ID authentication on Web. In order to enhance safety, the proposed authentication method by encrypting the user of the verification value, and stores the unique identifier in the database of the certificate authority. Then, the password required to log in to the Web is for receiving a disposable random from the certificate authority, the user does not need to remember a separate password and receives the random number by using the smart phone. It does not save the user's personal information in the database, and it is easy to management of personal information. Only the integration ID needs to be remembered with random number on every time. It doesn't need to use various IDs and passwords if you use this proposed authentication methods.

정책금융기관의 신용평가 현황 비교를 통한 개선방안 연구

  • Park, Guk-Geun;Nam, Gi-Jeong;Ha, Gyu-Su
    • 한국벤처창업학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 2019.04a
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    • pp.51-55
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    • 2019
  • 기업신용평가(ICR : Issuer Credit Rating)는 기업의 금융상 채무에 대한 전반적인 적기 상환능력, 즉 채무불이행의 가능성을 평가한 것으로 오로지 금융상 채무에 대한 전반적인 채무상환능력을 평가한다. 최근에는 신용평가 등급이 금융시장과의 효과적인 의사소통수단으로 인식되고 기업 IR 및 홍보차원과 기업 간 물품공급과 납품을 위한 업체 선정시 신용등급이 적극적이고 다양하게 활용되고 있다. 이러한 기업신용평가는 최근 경제환경의 급속한 변화에 대응하여 기관별로 평가시스템을 자주 개선하고 있다. 본 연구에서는 정책금융기관 별로 변화된 평가시스템에 대한 평가지표나 구조, 평가시스템을 비교 분석해 그 차이점과 공통점 그리고 경제환경 변화에 따라 변화된 주요지표를 파악해 보고 미래의 신용평가시스템의 변화와 개선방안에 대해 생각하였다. 기관별 비교에서 평가시스템의 차이점은 신보는 신용평가(부실률 기반)와 미래성장성평가(성장성 기반)를 실시하여 보증심사등급(보증의사결정 등급)을 산출하고, 기술자산평가등급은 신용평가등급을 조정(최대 ${\pm}2$등급)하는 보조적 수단으로 활용하고 있으며, 기보는 기술평가(성장성 및 부실률 기반)와 리스크관리용 리스크평가(신보의 신용평가에 해당)로 평가체계를 이원화하여 운영하고, 평가모형은 신보는 객관성을 확보한 정량평가 위주, 기보는 공신력을 확보한 정성평가 위주의 주관적인 평가를 실시하고 있어 어떤 형태의 평가시스템이 더 좋은 평가방법 인지는 알 수 없지만, 기관별 부실율을 보면 다소 참고가 될 수도 있으나, 이것이 전적인 평가의 문제라 보기도 어렵다. 특히 신보는 창업기업 기준이 창업후 7년까지로 확대됨에 따른 창업 3단계 평가제도와 기업의 성장단계에 맞춘 성장단계별 평가기준 세분화는 기업환경을 잘 반영한 변화라 볼 수 있다. 그리고 향후 평가시스템은 경제환경의 변화속도를 어떻게 잘 반영 할 수 있는지에 대한 연구로 방향이 전개될 것으로 보인다.

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