• 제목/요약/키워드: credit rating(s)

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개발비 지출이 기업가치와 신용등급에 미치는 영향 (An Empirical Research on the Firm Value and Credit Rating of Development Expenses)

  • 진동민
    • 아태비즈니스연구
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    • 제9권4호
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    • pp.119-135
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    • 2018
  • Currently, Korean firms are making a lot of effort to invest in research and development (R&D) by spending a lot of development costs in order to cope with the 4th industrial revolution. On the other hand, the capital market of Korea, which is the main source of funding, has caused a lot of cost of capital for firms by its reorganization mainly with safe assets in the experience of foreign exchange crisis at the end of 1997, the sub-prime mortgage crisis in 2007 and the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers in September 2008. Thus, this study empirically analyzed the effect of development expenses on credit rating and firm value. The credit rating was measured by commercial paper(CP) credit rating which is sensitive for investors in terms of risk because it is issued only by the credit of the firms. Firm value was defined as Tobin's Q, which has been widely used in prior studies. The results of the analysis are summarized as follows; Firstly, development expenses did not affect credit rating. Development expenses are recognized as intangible assets for uncertainty of economic benefits and long-term investment. Thus, it seems that there is no effect of development expenses on CP credit rating as CP credit rating is evaluated by short-term credit rating.

Capital Structure Decisions Following Credit Rating Changes: Evidence from Japan

  • FAIRCHILD, Lisa;HAN, Seung Hun;SHIN, Yoon S.
    • The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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    • 제9권4호
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    • pp.1-12
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    • 2022
  • Our study adds to the body of knowledge about the relationship between credit ratings and the capital structure of bond issuers. Using Bloomberg and Datastream databases and employing panel regression models, we study the capital structure changes of Japanese enterprises after credit rating changes by global rating agencies (S&P and Moody's) as well as their local counterparts (R&I and JCR) from 1998 to 2016. We find that after rating downgrades, Japanese enterprises considerably reduce net debt or net debt relative to net equity, similar to the findings of Kisgen (2009), who focused on U.S. industrial firms. They do not, however, make adjustments to their financial structure as a result of rating improvements. In comparison to downgrades by S&P and Moody's, Japanese corporations issue 1.89 percent less net debt and 1.50 percent less net debt relative to net equity after R&I and JCR rating downgrades. To put it another way, Japanese companies consider rating adjustments made by local agencies to be more significant than those made by global rating organizations. Our findings contradict earlier research that suggests S&P and Moody's are more prominent in the investment community than R&I and JCR in Japan.

다양한 다분류 SVM을 적용한 기업채권평가 (Corporate Bond Rating Using Various Multiclass Support Vector Machines)

  • 안현철;김경재
    • Asia pacific journal of information systems
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    • 제19권2호
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    • pp.157-178
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    • 2009
  • Corporate credit rating is a very important factor in the market for corporate debt. Information concerning corporate operations is often disseminated to market participants through the changes in credit ratings that are published by professional rating agencies, such as Standard and Poor's (S&P) and Moody's Investor Service. Since these agencies generally require a large fee for the service, and the periodically provided ratings sometimes do not reflect the default risk of the company at the time, it may be advantageous for bond-market participants to be able to classify credit ratings before the agencies actually publish them. As a result, it is very important for companies (especially, financial companies) to develop a proper model of credit rating. From a technical perspective, the credit rating constitutes a typical, multiclass, classification problem because rating agencies generally have ten or more categories of ratings. For example, S&P's ratings range from AAA for the highest-quality bonds to D for the lowest-quality bonds. The professional rating agencies emphasize the importance of analysts' subjective judgments in the determination of credit ratings. However, in practice, a mathematical model that uses the financial variables of companies plays an important role in determining credit ratings, since it is convenient to apply and cost efficient. These financial variables include the ratios that represent a company's leverage status, liquidity status, and profitability status. Several statistical and artificial intelligence (AI) techniques have been applied as tools for predicting credit ratings. Among them, artificial neural networks are most prevalent in the area of finance because of their broad applicability to many business problems and their preeminent ability to adapt. However, artificial neural networks also have many defects, including the difficulty in determining the values of the control parameters and the number of processing elements in the layer as well as the risk of over-fitting. Of late, because of their robustness and high accuracy, support vector machines (SVMs) have become popular as a solution for problems with generating accurate prediction. An SVM's solution may be globally optimal because SVMs seek to minimize structural risk. On the other hand, artificial neural network models may tend to find locally optimal solutions because they seek to minimize empirical risk. In addition, no parameters need to be tuned in SVMs, barring the upper bound for non-separable cases in linear SVMs. Since SVMs were originally devised for binary classification, however they are not intrinsically geared for multiclass classifications as in credit ratings. Thus, researchers have tried to extend the original SVM to multiclass classification. Hitherto, a variety of techniques to extend standard SVMs to multiclass SVMs (MSVMs) has been proposed in the literature Only a few types of MSVM are, however, tested using prior studies that apply MSVMs to credit ratings studies. In this study, we examined six different techniques of MSVMs: (1) One-Against-One, (2) One-Against-AIL (3) DAGSVM, (4) ECOC, (5) Method of Weston and Watkins, and (6) Method of Crammer and Singer. In addition, we examined the prediction accuracy of some modified version of conventional MSVM techniques. To find the most appropriate technique of MSVMs for corporate bond rating, we applied all the techniques of MSVMs to a real-world case of credit rating in Korea. The best application is in corporate bond rating, which is the most frequently studied area of credit rating for specific debt issues or other financial obligations. For our study the research data were collected from National Information and Credit Evaluation, Inc., a major bond-rating company in Korea. The data set is comprised of the bond-ratings for the year 2002 and various financial variables for 1,295 companies from the manufacturing industry in Korea. We compared the results of these techniques with one another, and with those of traditional methods for credit ratings, such as multiple discriminant analysis (MDA), multinomial logistic regression (MLOGIT), and artificial neural networks (ANNs). As a result, we found that DAGSVM with an ordered list was the best approach for the prediction of bond rating. In addition, we found that the modified version of ECOC approach can yield higher prediction accuracy for the cases showing clear patterns.

신용평가모형에서 콜모고로프-스미르노프 검정기준의 문제점 (Some Issues on Criterion for Kolmogorov-Smirnov Test in Credit Rating Model Validation)

  • 박용석;홍종선
    • Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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    • 제15권6호
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    • pp.1013-1026
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    • 2008
  • 신용평가모형의 판별력에 대한 적합성 검정방법으로 콜모고로프-스미르노프(K-S) 통계량이 널리 사용되고 있다. K-S 통계량을 통한 모형의 판별력 판단기준으로는 표본수에 의존하는 K-S 검정통계량의 임계값보다 매우 큰 기준인 $0.3{\sim}0.4$의 수준이 일반적으로 적용된다. 본 논문에서는 모의실험을 통해 일반적 판단기준의 타당성을 살펴보았다. 모의실험 결과 국내에서 개발된 대부분의 신용평가모형의 결과를 바탕으로 구한 K-S 통계량은 현재 적용하고 있는 판단기준보다 큰 값을 갖는다는 것을 발견하였다. 따라서 어떠한 신용평가모형 이라도 좋은 판별력을 갖는다고 해석할 수 있다. 본 연구에서는 표본크기와 불량률 그리고 제II종 오류율에 따른 대안적인 임계값을 제안한다.

경영자 초과보상과 신용등급 (Executive Excess Compensation and Credit Rating)

  • 김지혜
    • 디지털융복합연구
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    • 제20권5호
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    • pp.585-592
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    • 2022
  • 본 연구는 경영자의 초과보상이 신용등급에 미치는 영향을 분석하는 것이다. 적정수준을 초과하는 경영자의 초과보상의 크기가 클수록 기업의 미래 성과에 부정적인 영향을 미친다는 선행연구에 근거하여 경영자의 초과보상이 신용등급에도 부정적인 영향을 미칠 수 있다고 예상하였다. 이를 확인하기 위하여, 2014년부터 2019년까지 국내 상장비금융기업들을 대상으로 임원의 평균 보상을 통하여 경영자의 초과보상을 측정한 후, 초과보상의 크기가 차기 신용등급에 영향에 대하여 회귀분석하였다. 분석결과, 초과보상이 양(+)의 값을 가질 때, 즉 적정수준을 초과하여 경영자에게 보상이 지급될 때, 경영자 초과보상과 차기 신용등급이 음(-)의 관계로 나타났다. 또한 중소기업 표본에서 초과보상과 신용등급의 음(-)의 상관관계가 있는 것으로 나타났지만 대기업 표본에서는 상관관계가 없는 것으로 나타났다. 본 연구는 초과보상이 기업의 미래 성과에 미치는 부정적인 영향으로 인하여 신용등급에 영향을 주며, 그러한 영향은 대기업 여부에 따라 달라질 수 있다는 결과를 제시함으로써, 경영자의 초과보상이 기업의 성과에 미치는 부정적인 영향에 대하여 시장의 인지 가능성을 확인하였다는 점에서 공헌점이 있다.

신용등급전이행렬의 경험적 베이지안 추정과 비교 (Empirical Bayes Estimation and Comparison of Credit Migration Matrices)

  • 김성철;박지연
    • 응용통계연구
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    • 제22권3호
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    • pp.443-461
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    • 2009
  • 신용전이행렬을 추정함에 있어서 국내의 등급전이자료의 축적이 부족한 점을 극복하기 위하여 외국의 신용평가기관(무디스)의 전이행렬자료와 국내의 신용등급 부여자료를 이용하여 경험적 베이지안 추정방법에 의한 전이행렬을 도출하고, 이 전이행렬을 다른 전이행렬과 비교해보기 위하여 전이행렬의 동적인 요소를 평균전이확률의 개념으로 표시할 수 있는 특성척도를 개발하여 신용전이행렬의 시계열 특성과 통계적 특성을 비교한다. 시계열자료의 척도는 베이지안 추정행렬이 안정적임을 보여주는 반면 국내 행렬은 시간적으로 변화의 폭이 크고 무디스나 베이지안 행렬보다 상대적으로 인접전이의 비율이 높게 나타났다. 붓스트랩 검정을 통하여 세 가지 추정방법이 통계적으로 유의한 차이가 있음을 보이고 베이지안 행렬이 무디스 자료보다는 국내자료에 더 많은 영향을 받았음을 유추할 수 있다. 신용등급 전이에 따른 포트폴리오의 가치변화를 고려하는 몬테칼로 시뮬레이션을 통하여 신용 VaR를 구하여 비교하였다. 국내 전이행렬의 경우에 평균은 가장 크고 신용위험도 가장 큰 값을 보였다. 시뮬레이션에서도 베이지안 추정에 의한 결과가 국내자료에 의한 결과와 더 가깝다는 것을 알 수 있다.

K-IFRS 도입에 따른 재무비율이 신용평가에 미치는 영향 (The Effect of Financial Ratios on Credit Rating by Adoption of K-IFRS)

  • 왕현선
    • 경영과정보연구
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    • 제35권4호
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    • pp.37-56
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    • 2016
  • 본 연구는 K-IFRS 도입이전과 K-IFRS 도입이후의 표본자료를 사용하여 K-IFRS 도입으로 당기순이익과 기타포괄손익이 신용평가에 미치는 영향이 각 기간과 각 변수에 따라 달라졌는지를 분석한다. 연구결과는 다음과 같다. 첫째, K-IFRS 도입이후(2011년-2013년)에 당기손익(NI)이 신용평가에 미치는 영향은 K-IFRS 도입이전(2007년-2010년)보다 증가하였음을 알 수 있었다. 그러나 기타포괄손익(OCI)이 신용평가에 미치는 영향은 K-IFRS 이전과 비교하여 차이가 발생하지 않았다. 둘째, 당기손익은 K-IFRS 도입이후(2011년-2013년)에도 추가적으로 양의 영향을 미치는 것으로 나타났으며 도입이후 보다는 도입 첫해에 증분효과가 더 크다는 것을 알 수 있다. 그러나 IFRS 도입이후에 기타포괄손익이 신용평가에 미치는 증분효과는 미미하거나 없는 것으로 나타났다. 셋째, K-IFRS 도입첫해(2011년)에 기타포괄손익 보다는 당기손익이 신용평가에 미치는 영향이 더 큰 것으로 나타났으나 K-IFRS 도입이후(2012년-2013년)에는 당기손익과 기타포괄손익이 신용평가에 미치는 영향에 차이가 없는 것으로 나타났다. 이를 해석하면 당기손익과 기타포괄손익이 K-IFRS 도입첫해에만 신용평가에 추가적인 영향이 의미 있게 나타나 K-IFRS 도입으로 내재가치와 관계없이 재무비율 변동이 신용평가에 영향을 주었다. 그리고 시간이 지날수록 K-IFRS가 안정적으로 적용되어 도입초기와 같은 추가적인 증분효과는 나타나지 않을 것으로 기대할 수 있다. 본 연구의 의의는 K-IFRS 도입으로 인하여 재무비율 중에 당기손익이 신용평가에 영향을 미치고 있어 K-IFRS 도입전후에 정보이용자들이 신용평가자료를 이용하고자 할 때 K-IFRS의 영향을 고려해야 한다는 것이다.

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Influence of Global versus Local Rating Agencies to Japanese Financial Firms

  • Han, Seung Hun;Reinhart, Walter J.;Shin, Yoon S.
    • The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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    • 제5권4호
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    • pp.9-20
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    • 2018
  • Global rating agencies, such as Moody's and S&P, have assigned credit ratings to corporate bonds issued by Japanese firms since 1980s. Local Japanese rating agencies, such as R&I and JCR, have more market share than the global raters. We examine the yield spreads of 1,050 yen-denominated corporate bonds issued by financial firms in Japan from 1998 to 2014 and find no evidence that bonds rated by at least one global agency are associated with a significant reduction in the cost of debt as compared to those rated by only local rating agencies. Unlike non-financial firms, the reputation effect of global rating agencies does not exist for Japanese financial firms. We also observe that firms with less information asymmetry are more likely to acquire ratings from Moody's or S&P. Additionally, the firm's financial profile does not affect its choice to seek out ratings from global raters. Our findings are contradictory to those by Han, Pagano, and Shin (2012), who employ bonds issued by non-financial firms in Japan. Our conjecture is that the asymmetric nature of financial firms makes investors less likely to depend on a credit risk assessment by rating agencies in determining the yields of new bonds.

An Application of the Rough Set Approach to credit Rating

  • Kim, Jae-Kyeong;Cho, Sung-Sik
    • 한국지능정보시스템학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 한국지능정보시스템학회 1999년도 추계학술대회-지능형 정보기술과 미래조직 Information Technology and Future Organization
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    • pp.347-354
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    • 1999
  • The credit rating represents an assessment of the relative level of risk associated with the timely payments required by the debt obligation. In this paper, we present a new approach to credit rating of customers based on the rough set theory. The concept of a rough set appeared to be an effective tool for the analysis of customer information systems representing knowledge gained by experience. The customer information system describes a set of customers by a set of multi-valued attributes, called condition attributes. The customers are classified into groups of risk subject to an expert's opinion, called decision attribute. A natural problem of knowledge analysis consists then in discovering relationships, in terms of decision rules, between description of customers by condition attributes and particular decisions. The rough set approach enables one to discover minimal subsets of condition attributes ensuring an acceptable quality of classification of the customers analyzed and to derive decision rules from the customer information system which can be used to support decisions about rating new customers. Using the rough set approach one analyses only facts hidden in data, it does not need any additional information about data and does not correct inconsistencies manifested in data; instead, rules produced are categorized into certain and possible. A real problem of the evaluation of the evaluation of credit rating by a department store is studied using the rough set approach.

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신용평가모형에서 두 분포함수의 동일성 검정을 위한 비모수적인 검정방법 (Nonparametric homogeneity tests of two distributions for credit rating model validation)

  • 홍종선;김지훈
    • Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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    • 제20권2호
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    • pp.261-272
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    • 2009
  • 신용평가모형에서 두 집단의 판별력 검정방법 중의 하나로 두 분포함수의 동일성 검정을 위한 비모수적인 Kolmogorov-Smirnov (K-S) 검정방법이 대표적으로 적용되고 있다. 본 연구에서는 신용평가모형에서 두 분포함수의 동일성 검정을 위하여 K-S 검정 방법 외에 Cramer-Von Mises, Anderson-Darling, Watson 검정방법들을 소개하고 Joseph (2005)의 기준에 대응하는 판단기준을 제안한다. 또한 신용평가 자료와 유사한 상황 하에서의 모의실험을 통해서 불량률, 표본크기 그리고 제II종 오류율을 고려한 대안적인 판단기준을 제시하고 그 적용방법에 대해서 살펴본다.

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