• 제목/요약/키워드: crash prediction

검색결과 37건 처리시간 0.024초

초등해법을 이용한 철도차량 변형튜브 성능 예측에 관한 연구 (Prediction of the Performance of a Deformation Tube for Railway Cars using the Slab Method)

  • 김진모;이종길;김기남
    • 소성∙가공
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    • 제25권2호
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    • pp.124-129
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    • 2016
  • Recently, global railway car makers are competing desperately in developing high-speed railway vehicles. Ensuring passenger safety during a crash is essential. The design and the manufacturing of energy absorbing components are becoming more and more important. A deformation tube is a typical passive energy absorbing component for railway cars. In the current study the slab method was used to predict the energy absorbing capability of a deformation tube during the early design stage. The usefulness of the prediction method is verified through the comparisons between the results of FE simulations and those of the prediction method.

PC-Crash를 이용한 SUV의 전복사고 거동 및 충돌속도 예측에 관한 연구 (A Study on the Rollover Behavior of SUV and Collision Velocity Prediction using PC-Crash Program)

  • 최용순;백세룡;정종길;조정권;윤준규
    • 한국인터넷방송통신학회논문지
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    • 제18권2호
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    • pp.227-235
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    • 2018
  • 최근 자동차 교통량의 증가로 인해 차량 전복사고가 급증하여 이에 따른 인명피해가 증가해왔으며, 이를 방지하기 위한 차량충돌 실험장비 및 해석프로그램 개발 등의 다양한 기술이 진보되고 있다. 본 연구에서는 적용한 차량모델은 미국 FORD사의 EXPLORER 차종이고, Rollover 해석은 차량충돌해석에 상용되고 있는 PC-Crash 프로그램을 이용하여 SUV의 전복사고 거동 및 충돌속도를 예측하였다. 그 해석결과로 FMVSS No. 208 법규를 통한 SUV차량의 실제 Rollover 거동과 비교할 때 유사한 결과를 보여주었으며, 충돌속도 및 롤각의 특성은 1000 msec 이후부터는 다소 오차율이 커지는 경향을 나타냈다. 그리고 NHTSA의 데이터베이스를 활용하여 고찰한 결과로 충돌속도 15~77 km/h, 충돌각도 $22{\sim}74^{\circ}$ 범위에서 전복사고가 가장 많이 발생함을 나타냈고, 실제 사고사례를 적용함으로써 차량 출발 위치, Roof 파손위치, 정지위치를 재현시켜 차량 Roof가 파손될 때 차량속도 및 충돌시간을 예측할 수 있었다.

구간단속장비 설치 효과 분석 및 사고예측모형 개발 (A Study on Effectiveness Analysis and Development of an Accident Prediction Model of Point-to-Point Speed Enforcement System)

  • 김다예;이호원;홍경식
    • 한국안전학회지
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    • 제34권5호
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    • pp.144-152
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    • 2019
  • According to the National Police Agency, point-to-point speed enforcement system is being installed and operated in 97 sections across the country. It is more effective than other enforcement systems in terms of stabilizing the traffic flow and inhibiting the kangaroo effect. But it is only 5.1% of the total enforcement systems. The National Police Agency is also aware that its operation ratio is very low and it is necessary to expand point-to-point speed enforcement system. Hence, this study aims to provide the expansion basis of the point-to-point speed enforcement operation through analysis of the quantitative effects and development the accident prediction model. Firstly, this study analyzed the effectiveness of point-to-point speed enforcement system. Naive before-after study and comparison group method(C-G Method) were used as methodologies of analyzing the effectiveness. The result of using the naive before-after study was significant. Total accidents, EPDOs and casualty crashes decreased by 42.15%, 70.64% and 45.30% respectively. And average speed and the ratio of exceeding speed limit decreased by 6.92% and 20.50%p respectively. Moreover, using the C-G method total accidents, EPDOs and casualty crashes decreased by 31.35%, 66.62% and 10.04% respectively. And average speed and the ratio of exceeding speed limit decreased by 3.49% and 56.65%p respectively. Secondly, this study developed a prediction model for the probability of casualty crash. It was dependant on factors of traffic volume, ratio of exceeding speed limit, ratio of heavy vehicle, ratio of curve section, and presence of point-to-point speed enforcement. Finally, this study selected the most danger sections to the major highway and evaluated proper installation sections to the recent installation section by applying the accident prediction model. The results of this study are expected to be useful in establishing the installation standards for the point-to-point speed enforcement system.

머신러닝 기반의 수도권 지역 고령운전자 차대사람 사고심각도 분류 연구 (Classifying Severity of Senior Driver Accidents In Capital Regions Based on Machine Learning Algorithms)

  • 김승훈;임영빈;김기정
    • 디지털융복합연구
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    • 제19권4호
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    • pp.25-31
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    • 2021
  • 고령화 시대에 따라 고령운전자 역시 증가하고 있으며, 이들에 의한 교통사고 심각성에 대한 관심이 높아지고 있다. 이에 고령운전자에 의한 사고심각도 예측 모형의 필요성이 점차 요구됨에 따라, 본 연구에서는 기계학습 기법을 활용하여 고령운전자에 의한 차대사람 사고심각도 예측을 위한 모형 정립 및 분석을 수행하고자 한다. 이를 위해 4개의 기계학습 알고리즘 (Logistic Model, KNN, RF, SVM)을 활용, 예측 모형을 개발하고 각 결과를 비교하였다. 연구 결과에 따르면 Logistic과 SVM 모형이 상대적으로 높은 예측력을 보였으며, 정확도 측면에서는 RF가 높은 것으로 나타났다. 추가적으로 각 중요 변수들을 이용하여 교차분석을 수행한 후 그 결과를 제시하였다. 본 연구의 결과들은 고령화시대에 고령운전자에 의한 사고심각성을 예방하기 위한 안전정책 및 인프라 개발에 활용될 것으로 판단된다.

열린 단면 부재의 굽힘 붕괴 실험 및 해석에 관한 연구 (A Study on the Bending Collapse at the Open Cross-Section Members with Experiment and Analysis)

  • 이승철;강신유
    • 한국정밀공학회지
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    • 제21권4호
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    • pp.132-139
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    • 2004
  • The open section members have been used as the members of vehicle such as automotives, airplanes and trains. When vehicles are crashed, these members have absorption of the energy and it is necessary for retainment of the survival space, and as the result, the prediction for the displacement of members in this case of the crash of vehicles is very important. The displacements of members in this case of the crash of automotives show combined aspect of both axial collapse and bending collapse. In the rollover accident when bending collapse happen, the collapse of each members is progressed by the plastic hinge which made from bending moment, and therefore the research for the behavior of members under bending moment after collapse is necessary to determine the internal energy which the members can absorb and the deformed shapes of the members on the step of design. In this paper, the characteristics of bending collapse at the members of the open cross-section were studied with experiment and numerical analysis. We made a comparative studied of the result of the experiment, and changed the axis according to the parallel-axis theorem.

다양한 통계 기법을 활용한 안전성능함수 개발 및 비교 연구 : 트럼펫형 램프를 중심으로 (Development and Exploration of Safety Performance Functions Using Multiple Modeling Techniques : Trumpet Ramps)

  • 양삼규;박준영;권경주;이현석
    • 한국ITS학회 논문지
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    • 제20권5호
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    • pp.35-44
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    • 2021
  • 최근 고속도로 본선구간에서 발생한 교통사고에 대한 연구가 다수 수행되고 있으나, 램프와 같이 본선 외 구간에 대한 교통안전을 다루는 연구는 미미한 실정이다. 최근 5년(2015년~2019년)동안 램프에서 발생한 사고는 총 6,717건으로 이는 전체 고속도로 사고의 약 15%를 차지한다. 본 연구에서는 고속도로 램프구간에 대해 보다 정확한 사고 예측 모형을 제공하기 위해 포아송 감마(PG)와 포아송 역가우스(PIG)와 같은 다양한 통계 분포를 비롯하여 랜덤효과와 같은 기법을 적용하여 Simple 및 Full SPF를 구축하고 비교하였다. 교통 및 도로 기하구조 데이터는 로드뷰와 같은 다양한 시스템에서 수집되었다. 분석 결과, PIG 모형은 일반적으로 더 정확한 사고 예측을 제시하며, Simpe SPF와 Full SPF 모두에서 임의효과 모형이 더욱 우수한 성능을 나타내었다. 본 연구결과는 교통실무자들에게 정확한 사고 예측 모형을 기반으로 램프구간 교통안전을 증대시키고 이해할 수 있는 참고자료로써 활용될 수 있다.

Ultimate Strength of Concrete Barrier by the Yield Line Theory

  • Jeon, Se-Jin;Choi, Myoung-Sung;Kim, Young-Jin
    • International Journal of Concrete Structures and Materials
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    • 제2권1호
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    • pp.57-62
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    • 2008
  • When the yield line theory is used to estimate the ultimate strength of a concrete barrier, it is of primary importance that the correct assumption is made for the failure mode of the barrier. In this study, a static test was performed on two full-scale concrete barrier specimens of Korean standard shape that simulate the actual behavior of a longitudinally continuous barrier. This was conducted in order to verify the failure mode presented in the AASHTO LRFD specification. The resulting shape of the yield lines differed from that presented in AASHTO when subjected to an equivalent crash load. Furthermore, the ultimate strengths of the specimens were lower than the theoretical prediction. The main causes of these differences can be attributed to the characteristics of the barrier shape and to a number of limitations associated with the classical yield line theory. Therefore, a revised failure mode with corresponding prediction equations of the strength were proposed based on the yield lines observed in the test. As a result, a strength that was more comparable to that of the test could be obtained. The proposed procedure can be used to establish more realistic test levels for barriers that have a similar shape.

칵핏 흡차음 성능 예측을 위한 Virtual SEA 의 활용 (Application of Virtual SEA for the Prediction of Acoustic Performance of Cockpit)

  • 정원태;고창성;박경환
    • 한국소음진동공학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 한국소음진동공학회 2007년도 추계학술대회논문집
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    • pp.903-912
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    • 2007
  • One of the crucial factors which determine the quality and the accuracy of SEA model is how subsystems are defined. Experimental SEA technique had been a unique way to divide entire systems accurately for mid-frequency range, until FEA based virtual FRF response technique, virtual SEA method presented. Virtaul SEA has been developed for predictive SEA tool in early design process. In this study, Modal analysis results from modified crash FE model is used for Statistical transfer matrix. Observation nodes on the cockpit are grouped by attractive substructuring method based on point to point transfer and correlation matrix. Complex cockpit structure is divided into subsystems by automatic substructuring. Comparison with experimental SEA results validates the application of Virtual SEA to cockpit.

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건설안전사고 통계데이터 분석에 관한 기초연구 (A Basic Study on the Analysis of Construction Accident Statistics Data)

  • 박환표;한재구
    • 한국건축시공학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 한국건축시공학회 2018년도 추계 학술논문 발표대회
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    • pp.122-123
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    • 2018
  • Although the disaster rate of the industry as a whole is on a downward trend, the disaster rate of the construction industry is on an ongoing trend. Therefore, in this study, we analyzed safety accident statistical data of the construction site over the past three years. As a result of the analysis, the incidence of disasters at small construction sites was very high. And the proportion of disaster occurred for workers who worked in less than 6 months even roughly 92.6%. In addition, as a result of analyzing the form of disaster occurrence, the crash was 34.1% and the fall was 15.1%. The analysis results of these construction safety accidents are to provide as a basic material for developing a policy that can prevent safety accidents and a safety accident prediction model.

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승객 상해의 감소를 위한 승용차 조향주의 최적설계 (An Optimum Design of a Steering Column to Minimize the Injury of a Passenger)

  • 박영선;이주영;박경진
    • 한국자동차공학회논문집
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    • 제3권1호
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    • pp.33-44
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    • 1995
  • As the occupant safety receives more attention from automobile industries. protection systems have been developed quite well. Developed protection systems must be evaluated through real tests in crash environment Since the real tests are extremely expensive. computer simulations are replaced for some prediction of the real test In the computer simulation. it is very crucial to express the real environment precisely in the modeling precess. The energy absorbing(EA) steering system has a very important rote in vehicle crashes because the occupant can hit the system directly. In this study. the EA steering system is modeled precisely. analyzed for the safely and designed by an optimization technology. First. the EA steering system is disassembled by parts and modeled by segments and joints. The segments are modeled by rigid bodies in motion and they have resistances in contact. Spring-damper elements and force-deflection curves are utilized to represent the joints. The body block test is cal lied out to validate. the modeling. When the test results are not enough for the detailed modeling. the differences between tests and simulations are minimized to calculate unknown parameters using optimization. The established model is applied to a crash simulation of a full-car model and tuned again. After the modeling is finished. components of the steering system are designed by an optimization algorithm. In the optimization process. the compound injury of a driver is defined and minimized to determine the chracteristics of the components. The second. order approximation algorithm has been adopted for the optimization.

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